2016 US Presidential Election Thread Part XI

[martha]

And would anyone call him out on this bullshit??? Doubtful.

His believers will agree with whatever "reasons" he gives for not debating.

 

[BVS]

And would anyone call him out on this bullshit??? Doubtful.

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He could come out in full support of Hillary, say Obama is the best president of all time and they'd still vote for him. They're not paying attention. They wanted to fix a broken system, which is commendable and needs to be done, but they think burying their heads in the sand is the way to do so. It's an idiots' revolution.

If there are sensible folks on the fence, they are the only ones that this move will effect. And I highly doubt that there are many of those left.




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[Moonlit_Angel]

It would be very interesting to see how him not showing up to debates would affect his chances of winning the election, though. Obviously, like stated, his supporters wouldn't care, but I definitely think him being a no-show would limit the amount of any potential new supporters he could get between now and November, and that would work quite well in Hilary's favor as a result, I'd imagine.

 

[dazzledbylight]

While his followers will go with his reasons, excuses etc; it's possible that some Independents who look at the person regardless of party affiliation- could see his
no-show debating as something that might further increase the perception of him as being
ill-informed, as cowardly trying to "hide" that fact. Or further show his bullying if Hillary gets under his skin, and he is his more (often) reactive self.

it's late. Hope this makes sense.

 

[mikal]

I'm afraid anything he does seems to help him at this point. He's currently ahead in the polls and for the first time, ahead in the fivethirtyeight projection.

We're fucked.


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[BEAL]

I saw its tied. Takes a few days for the convention bump, and I think by midweek Clinton will go back to her 2-5% point lead.

There's still well over 3 months left. I still have faith in the sanity of this country.

He won't win minorities or the women vote. He's got then older white vote locked up. That won't win.

His hope rests on low voter turnout, and/or 3rd party taking votes away.

If we are still in this same position by October then I'd say we are fucked.

Edit: 538 polls-plus has Clinton ahead 60-39%


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[PhilsFan]

 

[BEAL]

He really seems mentally unstable. Considering spoken word is nothing more than our thoughts made public, you can tell a lot about a person by their speech.

It is just pure ignorance and stupidity inside his head


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[Vlad n U 2]

Never mind Putin, I reckon Trump may find some common ground with the chocolate oligarch Poroshenko.

 

[BVS]

It's like Rise of the Apes.




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[DaveC]

my god it is way too early for these dire predictions of doom. it's not even august, people.

edit: that being said, there's one thing that makes me wonder how anyone in good conscience could vote trump. terrorists aren't stupid. man has shown spectacularly poor judgement under pressure, and can be easily baited with a tweet. if trump wins you better believe every two bit islamicist group is going to be trying their damndest to attack you guys as hard and as shockingly as they possibly can to provoke some kind of unhinged response. i have a very hard time believing he would have handled 9-11 as well as bush did (and that's certainly saying something). in effect, electing trump will likely be the equivalent of saying to the world "you've got 4-8 yrs, hit us with your best shot". this alone should be a deal breaker for anybody with a conscience and it really makes me wonder why anyone intelligent would want to be lumped in with actual delusionals and sociopaths.

 

[martha]

There's still well over 3 months left. I still have faith in the sanity of this country.

I think I said something like this several months ago before the primaries.

 

[deep]

Trump can lose PA and win in VA
and get 269-269 for a win in the House

there are quite a few 269-269 scenarios with these current swing states.

Hillary must get 270, Trump only needs 269

the EC was never legit, it was a device that could work in the late 1700s to move the 'new' country forward,

 

[dazzledbylight]

Omg that cartoon! Thanks for that, BVS.

BEAL, yes... it is too early to throw up our hands in despair. All manner of well known people singley through various Democratic ( but not DNC)/ Progressive organizations are mustering up donations, setting up for GOTV, etc via e-mail, and full-out social media I'm sure.

Dems do have a usually powerful GOTV machine in Presidential elections!
(course now we have to more people out for "off-year" elections!)

Dave C, yeah really You are Canadian?

And CBS news is reporting a Hilary bounce 2% in several major swing states.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

my god it is way too early for these dire predictions of doom. it's not even august, people.

edit: that being said, there's one thing that makes me wonder how anyone in good conscience could vote trump. terrorists aren't stupid. man has shown spectacularly poor judgement under pressure, and can be easily baited with a tweet. if trump wins you better believe every two bit islamicist group is going to be trying their damndest to attack you guys as hard and as shockingly as they possibly can to provoke some kind of unhinged response. i have a very hard time believing he would have handled 9-11 as well as bush did (and that's certainly saying something). in effect, electing trump will likely be the equivalent of saying to the world "you've got 4-8 yrs, hit us with your best shot". this alone should be a deal breaker for anybody with a conscience and it really makes me wonder why anyone intelligent would want to be lumped in with actual delusionals and sociopaths.

For all his many, many faults... W handled the immediate aftermath of 9/11 about as well as you could have expected.

It was a couple of months down the road that he let it all go to hell in a handbag.

I can't even begin to think of how a Trump presidency would handle a similar crisis.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

Trump can lose PA and win in VA
and get 269-269 for a win in the House

Sure, but PA seems like a much easier flip that VA. The former is full of the sort of rural voters that could help him flip it while the latter has too much of a D.C. suburbs population that's down with Clinton.

And it looks like Republicans see this all as a four state strategy:

"Republicans looking at the electoral college map are not happy. Colorado and Virginia are probably already gone, although both Donald Trump and his running mate Gov. Mike Pence (R-IN) are appearing in Colorado this week. If the Democrats can hold onto the 18 states plus D.C. they have won in the last six presidential elections they have 242 electoral votes. Add in Colorado and Virginia and it becomes 264, perilously close to 270. Republican strategists say say their only path to 270 electoral votes requires Trump to win Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. Obama won all four of them in 2008 and all but North Carolina, which he barely missed, in 2012. Pennsylvania hasn't picked a Republican in decades.

From a demographic point of view, Pennsylvania and Ohio are the easiest of the four, because many angry blue-collar workers live there, but both states have large black populations, and Trump's approval among blacks is close to zero. North Carolina has large rural areas that generally vote Republican, but the area around Research Triangle Park has a large number of high-tech and financial companies, as well as three major universities so the area has an increasingly large number of college graduates, a constituency that used to be Republican but supports Hillary Clinton this year.

In addition to the difficult map, Trump is going to be outspent and out organized by Clinton by a huge margin in these states. In some of the states Trump doesn't even have a state team in place whereas Clinton has many offices in all of them."

Source: ElectoralVote.Com via This Article

 

[iron yuppie]

One would think that a president Trump would be surrounded by semi-competent people in the cabinet, as I don't think Congress would approve a bunch of his cronies. In that regard, some of his bravado and recklessness would be mitigated in foreign policy if he were elected. Or at least I would hope. I would really hope.

 

[BEAL]

His choice of Mike Pence shows he cant or won't be able to surround himself with anyone of credibility


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[DaveC]

Dave C, yeah really You are Canadian?

yep, if trump wins any border hoppers from fym can crash on my couch in toronto for a few days.

i don't know how I feel about this thought that just crossed my mind, but how freaking hilariously badass would it be if president hillary finds the hottest male intern in the white house, bones him in the oval office and just unashamedly announces it to the nation with a "well, now we're even" press conference

 

[dazzledbylight]

omg I find that thought at least partly very hilarious

2 of my friends on here are from Canada (Toronto area) (tho they only post very
intermittently right now )
For 2 family vacations as a tween we went to Toronto (a wedding), and Montreal for the '67 World's Fair. Left w good impressions.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I should start applying for that Canadian passport now just in case Trump builds a force field.

 

[Popmartijn]

I'm afraid anything he does seems to help him at this point. He's currently ahead in the polls and for the first time, ahead in the fivethirtyeight projection.

We're fucked.

I have still hope for you and the US that it doesn't come that far.
What interests me is that even a very conservative website as RedState is actively going against Trump. Sure, they're no fan of Hillary, but they do proclaim that Trump is completely unqualified to become president. In one of his latest controversies (there are so many and they follow up each other so fast I can't be more specific unfortunately) they even side with the Muslim couple that spoke at the Democratic Convention about their son who died while serving in Iraq. So I doubt that Trump will get enough support to win the election.

That said, the election will likely remain close. From the Public Policy Polling organisation (via PoliticalWire https://politicalwire.com/2016/07/31/why-this-election-will-probably-be-close/ ):

This election is never likely to turn out to be the sort of landslide for Clinton that some expected a year or 6 months ago because Trump voters just hate Clinton too much for that to ever happen. For instance on this poll we find that 74% of Trump voters think Clinton should be in prison, to only 12% who disagree. By a 66/22 margin they say Clinton is a bigger threat to the United States than Russia. And 33% think Clinton even has ties to Lucifer, to 36% who say they don’t think so, and 31% who are unsure either way.

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

By a 66/22 margin they say Clinton is a bigger threat to the United States than Russia.

Oooooookay.

And 33% think Clinton even has ties to Lucifer, to 36% who say they don’t think so, and 31% who are unsure either way.

 

[Axver]

Partisanship is one thing, but good grief, if you're that unhinged you probably should be committed to an institution.

 

[martha]

Partisanship is one thing, but good grief, if you're that unhinged you probably should be committed to an institution.

That's the conservative base!

 

[dazzledbylight]

Hillary more dangerous than Russia?

Well, those that think she's got ties to Lucifer Not that unexpected from some seriously right-wing Christians. As for the undecided

 

[dazzledbylight]

Red state against Trump re unqualified... that's good to hear.

What country are you from, popmartin?

 

[BigMacPhisto]

i don't know how I feel about this thought that just crossed my mind, but how freaking hilariously badass would it be if president hillary finds the hottest male intern in the white house, bones him in the oval office and just unashamedly announces it to the nation with a "well, now we're even" press conference

You clearly don't understand the science of erections.

 

[deep]

hard science

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Erectoral College