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Old 07-26-2016, 09:15 AM   #241
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I would be absolutely shocked if he knew there was a (significant) difference between the KRG and Rojava.
Vlad you are far more knowledgeable I'm certain.
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Old 07-26-2016, 09:47 AM   #242
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It's too late for me to run for President, but you're welcome to write in my username at the polling station if you want.
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Old 07-26-2016, 11:18 AM   #243
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Can you lay out Trump's specific plans to "end the violence"? To get rid of ISIS, since its "so easy" as he states? I know he's a big fan of the Kurds, BIG fan, good people. LOL

Actually, I'll take anyone giving me one Trump coherent Trump plan on ANY subject.

My point is out of 61 speeches given yesterday I don't think ISIS was mentioned once. My whole point was to analyze the fact that they are not gearing their message to the public concern of swing voters. If I were a professional political scientist this would raise red flags for me in projecting the bump or effectiveness of the convention. Take what you will from my post. This election is not all about Trump but a referendum on the Obama-Clinton doctrine. As for a couple specifics here you go.

- Trump wants to build a safe zone protected and funded by the UN in northwest Syria to house refugees. Purpose of which to process refugees in an orderly fashion and protect civilians from ISIS. This would stem the stream of refugees into Europe. I believe one of the Paris attackers and the axe wielding guy on the train embedded themselves in the refugee population. A more stringent vetting process in the safe zone would prevent more attacks and possibly inspired attacks in Europe and the US

- He has said he does not want to telegraph how he would defeat ISIS in Syria quickly. You don't lay out your battle plan to the enemy. He has said he would increase air strikes to target command and control, transportation, and oil revenue production. Right now we are flying less than 20 sorties a day as opposed to 100s daily against Serbia during the Kosovo War.


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Old 07-26-2016, 11:28 AM   #244
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Originally Posted by Oregoropa View Post
My point is out of 61 speeches given yesterday I don't think ISIS was mentioned once. My whole point was to analyze the fact that they are not gearing their message to the public concern of swing voters. If I were a professional political scientist this would raise red flags for me in projecting the bump or effectiveness of the convention. Take what you will from my post. This election is not all about Trump but a referendum on the Obama-Clinton doctrine. As for a couple specifics here you go.
As much as we have concerns for "safety" we also have concerns going to war. So if you were a political scientist you would be concerned about those flags as well.


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- He has said he does not want to telegraph how he would defeat ISIS in Syria quickly. You don't lay out your battle plan to the enemy. He has said he would increase air strikes to target command and control, transportation, and oil revenue production. Right now we are flying less than 20 sorties a day as opposed to 100s daily against Serbia during the Kosovo War.


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Come on, you're smart enough to know that's skirting the question. He doesn't have a plan, you can give the American people an idea without telegraphing. Is he planning on going to war or not?
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Old 07-26-2016, 11:36 AM   #245
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If Democrats are hesitant to embrace the flag, it's only because the GOP has made it into a political symbol of a kind of superficial, cultish nationalism that we don't wish to embrace.



I probably made some generalizations there, but the point stands.

The gist of my post is that Democrats need to win undecided voters who may have nationalistic tendencies. From a purely political strategic standpoint they are making an error at their own perile. Taking a more nuanced approach or ducking the existence of ISIS in the first night is not going to endear them to the voters they need to get. If the GOP is cultist the Dems have staked out a position on the complete opposite end of the spectrum. I would argue they need to find a place in between to be effective. They may rectify this in upcoming nights.

I laid out some Trump specifics in my reply to Womanfish. From a messaging standpoint Rudy, Flynn, Newt, Pence hit the security-terror message hard. Maybe too cultist or fear mongering for your tastes. But the message may not be directed to you. Instead they are going for the outstanding votes right now.

If politics is a game with the winner declared on election night. Then the GOP has a better game plan right now to win those votes in swing states and put them in a position to win.


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Old 07-26-2016, 11:37 AM   #246
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Trump & Putin. Yes, It's Really a Thing

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Old 07-26-2016, 11:44 AM   #247
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Oh shit, someone wasn't given the Kool-Aid:

Bernie Sanders' Former Staffer: "No One Stole the Election From Us" | Mother Jones
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Old 07-26-2016, 12:59 PM   #248
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Seeing the polls (since those are always right!!!), 90% of Bernie supporters back in April making the switch to Clinton is a good enough percentage for me.

That 10% was never going to vote for Clinton, maybe for Trump, but most likely those votes are going to Gary or Jill

Those are numbers that can be managed I think depending on location. If it's CA, then I'm not sure Clinton cares, as it'll go Blue. If it were FL, then I think we've seen in the past what a hundred thousand people can do to this country.
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Old 07-26-2016, 01:36 PM   #249
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My magic eight ball was right. Sanders gave his full endorsement at the DNC.
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Old 07-26-2016, 01:42 PM   #250
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Seeing the polls (since those are always right!!!), 90% of Bernie supporters back in April making the switch to Clinton is a good enough percentage for me.

That 10% was never going to vote for Clinton, maybe for Trump, but most likely those votes are going to Gary or Jill

Those are numbers that can be managed I think depending on location. If it's CA, then I'm not sure Clinton cares, as it'll go Blue. If it were FL, then I think we've seen in the past what a hundred thousand people can do to this country.
I can't seem to find the link, but Nate Silver wrote about how that poll is misleading. The 90% number is contingent on voters having to choose either Clinton or Trump. When other options are presented - third party candidates, abstaining, etc - the number is much lower.
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Old 07-26-2016, 01:45 PM   #251
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My point is out of 61 speeches given yesterday I don't think ISIS was mentioned once.
You do realize there are still 3 more days in the convention, right?


Quote:
- Trump wants to build a safe zone protected and funded by the UN in northwest Syria to house refugees.
Trump has also stated that he would be willing to withhold US aid to allies unless they paid up their debts. How willing do you think our allies would be to work with Trump if they're unsure whether he'll have their backs because he thinks money is more important than global security?

A more stringent vetting process in the safe zone would prevent more attacks and possibly inspired attacks in Europe and the US

Quote:
He has said he does not want to telegraph how he would defeat ISIS in Syria quickly. You don't lay out your battle plan to the enemy.
That's also an easy way of covering up for the fact that you don't have a plan worth sharing. And this whole "I would end it so fast" flies in the face of the defense and intelligence community's considerable expertise and carefully considered opinions, and also contradicts his "no more stupid wars in the Middle East" statements. And given the fact that ISIS is embedded among civilian populations, I don't think increasing the bombing would produce the clear cut results Trump would hope for. Combine increased civilian casualties with his anti-Muslim domestic policies, and you have the perfect recipe for increased radicalization of Muslim youth.

Bottom line is Trump is promising vague and simple solutions to problems that flat out do not have simple solutions.
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Old 07-26-2016, 02:29 PM   #252
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I will also remind Trump supporters of this story from a while back regarding the level of his commitment to actually enacting anything resembling a foreign policy:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/20/ma...ning-mate.html

Quote:
One day this past May, Donald Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., reached out to a senior adviser to Gov. John Kasich of Ohio, who left the presidential race just a few weeks before. As a candidate, Kasich declared in March that Trump was “really not prepared to be president of the United States,” and the following month he took the highly unusual step of coordinating with his rival Senator Ted Cruz in an effort to deny Trump the nomination. But according to the Kasich adviser (who spoke only under the condition that he not be named), Donald Jr. wanted to make him an offer nonetheless: Did he have any interest in being the most powerful vice president in history?

When Kasich’s adviser asked how this would be the case, Donald Jr. explained that his father’s vice president would be in charge of domestic and foreign policy.

Then what, the adviser asked, would Trump be in charge of?

“Making America great again” was the casual reply.
Sooooooo...yeah.

Then there's the not so little issue of Trump constantly throwing temper tantrums whenever somebody dares to criticize or call him out on something, be it on Twitter or elsewhere. To Trump supporters here, do you seriously think someone who behaves like that should be meeting with foreign leaders? You don't think that would kind of be a massive problem for foreign relations?

On the note of national security and ISIS, by the way, I looked on the DNC's website for upcoming events and I noticed they'll have a couple people speaking later this week in relation to gun control. Something the GOP continues to refuse to support, despite a couple of the more recent mass shootings here in the States being carried out by ISIS sympathizers.

To say nothing of how, for all the Republicans' talk about sympathizing with the police in light of all these recent police shooting incidents, as well as their cries of how we need to make this country safer in non-terrorist terms, they don't seem all that keen on changing the gun laws so civilians have less chance of running around armed and shooting at other people or the police.
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Old 07-26-2016, 02:47 PM   #253
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Already drunk on power:


Exclusive: Trump could seek new law to purge government of Obama appointees | Reuters
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Old 07-26-2016, 03:02 PM   #254
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This is great:

Let Me Remind You Fuckers Who I Am

https://medium.com/@shitHRCcantsay/l...e47#.vi1xbox5b
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Old 07-26-2016, 03:23 PM   #255
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I think Trump for sure wins Nevada and North Carolina. That puts him at 212 Electoral Votes when you add in the obvious states.

The possibilities to swing:

Iowa - 6 EVs
Ohio - 18 EVs
Pennsylvania - 20 EVs
Florida - 29 EVs


Even if he wins those first three, that only puts him at 256. Basically, he has to win the trifecta of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida to win this thing. I do not see a scenario where Wisconsin or Michigan flip before those three either.

I do believe that the white voters in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida are actually more similar than people would expect in terms of attitude and lifestyle.


I'd rank the flip-a-bility as:

1. Nevada
2. North Carolina
3. Iowa
4. Ohio
5. Florida (non-white population could have strong turnout)
6. Pennsylvania (those cities are going to be hard to overcome)

I also think a lot of potential swing states will quickly revert to their old ways in polling once the Democratic convention ends...with all of the money and focus being on those five above states and Virginia. Virginia will fall off quick if it becomes apparent that Clinton's strong appeal in the D.C. suburbs isn't going to go anywhere.




For those that didn't take a closer look as to why Trump is doing so well, it turns out that he's now leading white working class voters by a 39 point margin compared to 20 points from before the convention. Basically, the white and under-educated group are going to him by such a wide margin that it's really tipping the skills.

Funny enough, Clinton had a slight gain with college-educated voters after they got a taste of the Republican convention.
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