2016 US Presidential Election Thread Part X
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deep
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I could speculate on any conditions she might have, but bottom line it was a poorly created speech, and poorly delivered, with not much of a message. The old guy (business partner) that was about the same time as her was really bad too.
I realize we all have bias, but what was your impression of the woman that spoke that runs the Eric Trump Charity Foundation?
mikal
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Holy crap!
Shut the front door...
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Unfortunately, it is a real person i guess. I was so hoping for her to be made up. sigh...
BVS
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She is? I still haven't found anything. Apparently she has a Facebook page... that she created yesterday.
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womanfish
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BVS
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http://www.vox.com/2016/7/21/12218136/donald-trump-nomination-afraid
I'd be curious to see if any pro-Trumpers could debate the points raised in this article without referencing Hillary.
I'd be curious to see if any pro-Trumpers could debate the points raised in this article without referencing Hillary.
Hewson
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Hewson
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I tend to agree. Even if Trump gets McGoverned by Hillary, I think Cruz burned far too many bridges and was a shitty candidate to begin with.
Oh and Fuck Ted Cruz.
You're assuming the Republican party operates under the guise of logic.
Registered Democrat. Ha
BigMacPhisto
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Eh, Trump wanting to pull back from NATO unless we get paid isn't morally right, but pulling back from military interventionism is always right. There is no doubt in my mind that he'd be less of a war hawk than Clinton and if he actually means what he says on trade, that's the other plus. Everything else he "supports" is absolute garbage, mind you.
deep
Blue Crack Addict
The man has principles, one has to admire that.
Hawk Newsome cares deeply about America's presidential election.
He and other activists in the Black Lives Matter movement have this week driven all the way from New York to Cleveland to demonstrate outside the Republican National Convention, couch-surfing with friends along the way. Next week, they'll be doing the same in Philadelphia at the Democratic National Convention.
But one thing that Newsome and his friends say they won't be doing in November is voting. For anyone.
"Neither party has stepped to the front and made Black Lives Matter a priority," he says. "Hillary Clinton has the votes of millions of African Americans in her hands. But she's promoting herself. And the problem is that we are settling [for that]!"
Newsome is leading a new campaign to get African Americans to do something that few civil rights leaders have recommended: stop voting. He believes that only by withdrawing support from the major parties can black communities force politicians to address their concerns about police brutality.
He calls it "I Ain’t Voting" — and he says he’s aware that it could be seen as a rejection of the struggle that a previous generation went through.
Oregoropa
Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid
I would argue you can see some of same traits in our current President
Vindictive
- Held a bi-partisan panel discussion on health care with Paul Ryan taking the policy lead. Came out to a press conference and dressed him down while he sat in the front row. So much for reaching across the aisle
- Didn't like Citizens United decision. Put SCOTUS on blast in front of the nation during the State of the Union.
Sycophants and yes people in his inner circle. Seems to ignore CIA and defense officials public warnings that ISIS is trying to embed itself in the refugee stream.
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BVS
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Listen, I got this bridge for sale, I'll give you a great deal.
Have you been paying attention to Mr. NotTakingNukingEurope off the table? Like, at all?
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BVS
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Well he didn't mention Hillary
but you still managed to prove diemen's point
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Moonlit_Angel
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That's not vindictive? That's calling people out for bad decision-making? Citizens United was a horrible decision. And the Republicans had no interest in trying to be bipartisan on health care. The moment Obama came on board as being willing to embrace some, if not all, of the tenets of Romneycare, suddenly the Republicans didn't support it anymore. They were the petty, uncompromising ones here, not Obama. That's why the bill we finally got was so watered down.
1, yes, because Trump doesn't have ANY sycophants or yes men in his inner circle, right? No other politician has ever had those.
2a, is it that he's ignoring them, or more that he's trying to find ways to take down ISIS without having to endanger refugees in the process?
2b, I fail to see what that has to do with a discussion about comparisons between him and Trump.
The suggestion was to try and respond to the complaints about Trump specifically. How do those of you who support Trump here respond to the allegations and accusations about HIM that were made in that article. Don't go off on a, "Well, Obama/Hilary does it, too!" rant. This is about Trump and Trump alone.
Please, do share your thoughts. I'd be very interested to hear them, too.
Oregoropa
Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid
A liberal publication publishes an article critical of Trump citing a disaffected Republican.
Not going to spend time on it, just as I would expect others in the forum to brush off a Breibart article critical of Hillary citing a disaffected Democrat.
I did however want to put up a mirror to Obama's behavior.
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Not going to spend time on it, just as I would expect others in the forum to brush off a Breibart article critical of Hillary citing a disaffected Democrat.
I did however want to put up a mirror to Obama's behavior.
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Moonlit_Angel
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Except those complaints have come up frequently ever since he started running. It's less to do with the political bent of the site and more to do with the fact that people find these aspects of Trump legitimately concerning. So we're just curious how Trump supporters would explain or defend (or critique, if need be) those aspects of their candidate, aspects of Trump which an article shouldn't even need to expressly point out, because they've been on clear display from day one.
But your choice not to respond, I suppose.
I haven't yet watched her speech itself, but from what I've read about it thus far, I'd be curious to see how many people at that convention heard the part where she said LGBTQ lives matter.
But your choice not to respond, I suppose.
I haven't yet watched her speech itself, but from what I've read about it thus far, I'd be curious to see how many people at that convention heard the part where she said LGBTQ lives matter.
OP
OP
DaveC
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this is a fair point.
BigMacPhisto
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namkcuR
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These nationwide polls are released fairly often, and recently they've shown more or less a deadheat between the two candidates, but nationwide polls can really only be indicative of the nationwide popular vote, which, as Al Gore can tell you, doesn't determine the winner of a presidential election in our electoral college system. It's the state polls, in a particular handful of states, that matter. You can argue it's a bad system if you want, but right now, it's what matters. And regardless of what the nationwide polls say, Donald Trump has a massive uphill battle ahead of him to make the electoral college math work in his favor, because in the big picture, the state polls haven't looked great for him.
Before even looking at these ten swing states:
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Florida
Virginia
North Carolina
Iowa
Wisconsin
Colorado
Nevada
New Hampshire
If you give every other state to the obvious candidate, Hillary starts with a 216-191 lead in the electoral collage, with 270 needed to win.
Now, let's look at those ten states. I will be using RealClearPolitics polling data.
For starters, let's look at Colorado and Wisconsin.
Colorado used to be pretty red, but Obama carried it twice. Hillary has led in six of the seven polls taken between November 2015 and now - five of those polls taken just this month - by an average margin of +8. It seems likely that she will carry Colorado.
In Wisconsin, Hillary has led ALL fifteen polls taken between August 2015 and now by an average margin of +5.6, which would seem to suggest that despite Governor Walker's conservative union-busting agenda(or maybe because of it), Wisconsin is Hillary's to lose.
Now let's look at Virginia, a state becoming more purple by the year. In twelve polls taken between July 2015 and now - four just in the last month - Hillary has led ten of them, with the other two being ties, by an average margin of +4.8.
In New Hampshire, Hillary has led in seventeen of the eighteen polls taken in the last year, the one she didn't win being a tie, by an average margin of +2.7.
Those four states carry a total of 36 electoral college votes, which would bring Hillary's total up 252 to Trump's 191.
If Hillary can carry those four states, she's 18 electoral college votes away. In addition, there's also Iowa and Nevada, two more states that Obama carried both times. Hillary has led in most of the polls in Iowa, even though Trump won the last two polls by a narrow margin. There doesn't seem to be much polling available yet for Nevada. But those are two states that Hillary should be able to win.
That's six states from which Hillary can get her total up into the 250s at least.
And that's without even talking about the big prizes of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
We're looking at an electoral map where Hillary can conceivably win carrying only one of those three states, while Trump would have to win all three of them and hold onto North Carolina, which we haven't talked about yet, to win.
North Carolina is a state Obama won in 2008 but lost in 2012. The transgender bathroom stuff has hurt Republicans there. There have been twenty polls there in the last year and Clinton and Trump have basically split it down the middle - nine Hillary victories, one tie, and ten Trump victories. But three of those Hillary victories were the three most recent polls, and the average margin for all the polls there is +2.0 for Hillary. It will be difficult, but NC is absolutely in play.
So Hillary is in a position where she doesn't even need the three biggest prizes as much as Trump does. Again, Trump may have to win ALL of those three states while NOT letting NC slip away.
All of this doesn't even take into consideration two wildcards that been talked about - New York and Arizona. Even here, the news is good for Hillary.
Trump people seem to think he can win NY because it's his home state, but that seems like a bit of pipe dream. She's led by double figures in all of the thirteen polls done in the last seven months, with an average margin of 18.0.
Meanwhile, the notion that Hillary could conceivably steal Arizona seems to have more credence. There's not as much polling from there, only five polls since March of this year, but Hillary led two of them and tied another, and the average margin there is currently in her favor, though it's a razor-thin +0.5.
Now, we're still three and a half months out from the election, things can change, there will be post-convention bumps, and polls will go up and down, but I just don't think the general trends are going to change all that much.
The state-polling, and thus the electoral college map, are massively in Hillary's favor, despite the national polls being close. I really think the only way she can lose is if too many of us on the left become so confident that we don't actually bother to vote ourselves. EVERYONE MUST VOTE.
Before even looking at these ten swing states:
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Florida
Virginia
North Carolina
Iowa
Wisconsin
Colorado
Nevada
New Hampshire
If you give every other state to the obvious candidate, Hillary starts with a 216-191 lead in the electoral collage, with 270 needed to win.
Now, let's look at those ten states. I will be using RealClearPolitics polling data.
For starters, let's look at Colorado and Wisconsin.
Colorado used to be pretty red, but Obama carried it twice. Hillary has led in six of the seven polls taken between November 2015 and now - five of those polls taken just this month - by an average margin of +8. It seems likely that she will carry Colorado.
In Wisconsin, Hillary has led ALL fifteen polls taken between August 2015 and now by an average margin of +5.6, which would seem to suggest that despite Governor Walker's conservative union-busting agenda(or maybe because of it), Wisconsin is Hillary's to lose.
Now let's look at Virginia, a state becoming more purple by the year. In twelve polls taken between July 2015 and now - four just in the last month - Hillary has led ten of them, with the other two being ties, by an average margin of +4.8.
In New Hampshire, Hillary has led in seventeen of the eighteen polls taken in the last year, the one she didn't win being a tie, by an average margin of +2.7.
Those four states carry a total of 36 electoral college votes, which would bring Hillary's total up 252 to Trump's 191.
If Hillary can carry those four states, she's 18 electoral college votes away. In addition, there's also Iowa and Nevada, two more states that Obama carried both times. Hillary has led in most of the polls in Iowa, even though Trump won the last two polls by a narrow margin. There doesn't seem to be much polling available yet for Nevada. But those are two states that Hillary should be able to win.
That's six states from which Hillary can get her total up into the 250s at least.
And that's without even talking about the big prizes of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
We're looking at an electoral map where Hillary can conceivably win carrying only one of those three states, while Trump would have to win all three of them and hold onto North Carolina, which we haven't talked about yet, to win.
North Carolina is a state Obama won in 2008 but lost in 2012. The transgender bathroom stuff has hurt Republicans there. There have been twenty polls there in the last year and Clinton and Trump have basically split it down the middle - nine Hillary victories, one tie, and ten Trump victories. But three of those Hillary victories were the three most recent polls, and the average margin for all the polls there is +2.0 for Hillary. It will be difficult, but NC is absolutely in play.
So Hillary is in a position where she doesn't even need the three biggest prizes as much as Trump does. Again, Trump may have to win ALL of those three states while NOT letting NC slip away.
All of this doesn't even take into consideration two wildcards that been talked about - New York and Arizona. Even here, the news is good for Hillary.
Trump people seem to think he can win NY because it's his home state, but that seems like a bit of pipe dream. She's led by double figures in all of the thirteen polls done in the last seven months, with an average margin of 18.0.
Meanwhile, the notion that Hillary could conceivably steal Arizona seems to have more credence. There's not as much polling from there, only five polls since March of this year, but Hillary led two of them and tied another, and the average margin there is currently in her favor, though it's a razor-thin +0.5.
Now, we're still three and a half months out from the election, things can change, there will be post-convention bumps, and polls will go up and down, but I just don't think the general trends are going to change all that much.
The state-polling, and thus the electoral college map, are massively in Hillary's favor, despite the national polls being close. I really think the only way she can lose is if too many of us on the left become so confident that we don't actually bother to vote ourselves. EVERYONE MUST VOTE.
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BigMacPhisto
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I think Clinton will have a fairly easy time picking up a bunch of the states that you just mentioned. For me, a Trump victory would require him to win Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. But I don't think that's really an absurd idea given the fact that the left isn't excited about Clinton and that polls are showing Trump getting fairly close to tipping those states.
All three of those states are brimming with white voters in the suburban and rural areas that are a perfect fit for what's Trump selling...so it's really a question of whether their turnout can counteract what will be going on in cities like Philadelphia, Cincinnati and Miami.
All three of those states are brimming with white voters in the suburban and rural areas that are a perfect fit for what's Trump selling...so it's really a question of whether their turnout can counteract what will be going on in cities like Philadelphia, Cincinnati and Miami.
namkcuR
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Like I said, if the left turns out, Hillary wins. Ohio and Florida will be close, but I'm quietly confident about Pennsylvania. She has the best margins there of the three states, and the state has gone Democrat in six straight presidential elections.
Also, don't forget about North Carolina. If she manages to win there, she can win the election while losing all of the big three. But I think she's almost guaranteed to win at least one of the three.
Also, don't forget about North Carolina. If she manages to win there, she can win the election while losing all of the big three. But I think she's almost guaranteed to win at least one of the three.
Are you talking about the woman in the recorded video?
Misguided principles in this case.
He'd put Trump in the White House if he were successful, which certainly would not make things better for the BLM movement. It would make things a million times worse.
deep
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deep
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