It's 2016 and the numbers are showing this country rapidly moving to the left (and it would be an even faster shift if more people on that side of the equation bothered to vote). People aren't going to go vote for some right-wing whackjob just because the other person is a declared Socialist.
The hard ideologues vote in the primaries. That is a certainty. I thought everybody under the sun understood that much. But BM never fails to disappoint in his effort to...do whatever it is he thinks he's doing.
In each party, the 30 million people that vote in the primaries are going to be FAR more on the wings than the 30 million people people who don't. This is the same principle that will doom Donald Trump.
Trump couldn't conjure up enough additional support to win this thing. It's just not going to happen. The most votes a GOP candidate has ever gotten for President is 62 million. And that was two-wartime incumbent GW Bush who was assisted by a cynical swing state plan to stop Adam and Steve from marrying. And Bush got 40% of the Latino vote in 2004 too. And won by just a single state. And that was the only time in the last 6 elections the GOP has actually won the popular vote. So Bush in 2004 was basically the anomaly here as he barely pulled out a win even with some wind at his back.
So, I'll say it again. 62 million votes. Most ever for the GOP.
While Obama got at least 66 million votes in both of his victories.
Generously, Trump got 14 million votes in the GOP Primary. Suppose he'd need MINIMUM 67 million votes to win (clearing Obama's basement), then Donald Trump is gonna need MINIMUM 53 million people to come out of the shadows that did NOT already vote for him in the primary.
I'll say that again. 53 million (or so) additional votes above those who already voted for him in the primary. Minimum.
Who are these people? And how could there be that many of them? Want an idea of how many people that is? 53 million would be more votes than either Gore or Bush got in 2000. And Romney got just 8 million more than that in 2012. And Romney got more of the White vote in 2012 - by % - than Reagan did in his 1984 landslide. And as we all know, Romney still comfortably lost. Mitt was the most mainstream guy the GOP could have conjured up in a laboratory...and he didn't even top W's 2004 number - though it was close - 61 vs 62 million, perhaps suggesting a ceiling somewhere in that ballpark.
The demographics decided this election long before Trump opened his mouth. But since then, he went from being the only guy in the GOP race with a real chance to overcome those demographics and win for the GOP in Nov (because of his unique celebrity appeal) to a non-serious non-starter.
Trump would do well to reach 200 electoral votes (Romney got 206). And he would do well to eclipse GW Bush's 62 million votes. And even if he does, it won't be by many more. I'd think he'll be south of 64 million and lose the popular vote easily. Any path to victory for Trump will involve key victories in all the states the GOP usually hauls in - plus all the big purple states - like Florida, Ohio, PA. Whatever the case, I have not looked into the EC math. I don't see the point.
Yeah, we always hear "you never know". But these elections, retroactively, always scream "you should have known" And we would already know...if we just want to exclude the likelihood of something we've never seen happen. At some point, you gotta look at this like history tells us we should look at all modern U.S. presidential elections (and probably more true before the modern era). You should look at the macro and not the micro. The day to day happenings of these campaigns are useless. The macro view will tell us where this is going. And the macro here is beyond obvious.
And no, I don't give a shit what Rasmussen or another poll says. You can get any poll to tell you anything you already wanted to hear. Trump can't scrounge together 50-odd million people that didn't already vote for him. And Hilary Clinton can. Especially when Willie and Barry (and Liz) get out there and start selling her over the non-serious carnival barker.
I refer anyone to the 2012 DNC speech that Bill Clinton gave. I still maintain that Obama won as comfortably as he did - because of that speech. Sure, Obama was going to win anyway, but Clinton really does have a lot of pull with people not engaged in the primary process. And that was one of the most damning - and entirely true - political speeches I've ever heard. And Obama and Liz Warren are pretty good too (understated, on purpose). Liz Warren reminds me of Bill Clinton, in that she's from small town Oklahoma (and he is from small town Arkansas), and she knows how to make liberal arguments that do not come off as detached elitism. This is why she will be the VP because HRC will believe she'll be President some day. Legacy preservation.
Anyway, this is a group of Democrats that know how to win. Unlike the hard ideologues that can always win the arguments...but never the elections. You gotta win the elections first. This is why the non-true-progressives are actually the biggest champions of progressivism. And one day in the future, I'd wager most of the Bernie Sanders fans will understand that. We've all been there in some form or another. I'm not on a high horse. Just sharing a POV.
So, I'll say it again. 62 million votes. Most ever for the GOP.
While Obama got at least 66 million votes in both of his victories.
Generously, Trump got 14 million votes in the GOP Primary. Suppose he'd need MINIMUM 67 million votes to win (clearing Obama's basement), then Donald Trump is gonna need MINIMUM 53 million people to come out of the shadows that did NOT already vote for him in the primary.
I'll say that again. 53 million (or so) additional votes above those who already voted for him in the primary. Minimum.
.
Just going to throw this out for opinion.
If the democratic primary had an exact opposite result - Sanders winning by 3.7 million votes, 350 pledged delegates, etc... What would Bernie do if Clinton (the loser) demanded that he adopt her ideas into his platform? What would Bernie supporters say?
You're delusional.Or it's just simple math and the thirty million that voted in the Democratic primary aren't representative of the broader one hundred and thirty million that will likely vote in November's election.
Not to mention that she beat him by about 3.7 million voters and we can expect, again, 130 million in the actual election. I don't know why this theory about primary success having anything to do with the general keeps getting idiotically floated around here. You wouldn't say Trump is the strongest GOP candidate just because he won the primaries. And why not? Polls. But there's definitely a double standard when Sanders enters the race because the party faithful had checked off "And then I elect a woman in 2016" on their bucket list back when Clinton was hired as Secretary of State.
No charges against Clinton.
I really do wonder how many people honestly thought that charges would be pressed.
Well, how many sane people thought that any charges would be pressed.
What I wonder is if she truly realized what she was doing. I mean, why did the Secretaries before her do it too. Makes me wonder. The only time I've ever sent a work email to my personal account was in cases when a remote connection was unreliable.
Not trying to make excuses or anything. Just strikes me as odd that someone would openly choose to that without good reason.
You support murder and I don't.
We are three weeks away from the DNC and Philadelphia's regional rail system just lost a third of its trains to mechanical problems over the weekend. It's gonna get ugly.
Private email servers are quite common, do you really expect her to use a gmail account when emailing from home or in travel?
This whole thing is a scam. Cybersecurity is a real threat and honestly we are extremely behind when it comes to this threat. BUT email, no matter what server is an extremely vulnerable form of communication, unless you eliminate all government employees from emailing out of the office, from their phones or only TO certain people then the issue isn't security; it's fucking politics.
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