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Old 07-19-2016, 01:35 PM   #571
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Tim Kaine, Trump narrowed it down for her.

I don't get why you keep saying this.
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Old 07-19-2016, 01:44 PM   #572
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How confident are you that the stuff you are reading is legit?

Very. Comments are from long standing community members in the forum where these accounts are posted.
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Old 07-19-2016, 01:55 PM   #573
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What white man currently NOT voting for Hillary would suddenly do so because boring Tim Kaine of all people is on the ticket? I mean honestly, what out there supports this at all? And what other use is Kaine?

Plus his biggest drawback aside from being dull as they come, is having a spotty record on abortion rights. That'll sure energize the gals to turn out.
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Old 07-19-2016, 01:57 PM   #574
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I don't get why you keep saying this.
Once again, I will tell you that I do appreciate the way you post and interact with others on this board. You know I have been around for awhile and following these Presidential elections for some time. I am not an ideologue, but make evaluations based on how I see things at this point in time based on events and behavior of the candidates.

All that said, I think Hillary's strongest asset is Bill Clinton, he is older now and not as sharp as he was in the 90s. But even a somewhat diminished Bill Clinton is quite tremendous.
Unlike some in here saying this election is in the bag, a blowout. he will not underestimate what can happen, what portion of the demographic Trump must capture that could tip a close election.
Trumps best (probably only) path to victory is getting working class voters that have traditionally voted Democrat. Hillary - Warren does not help with middle America. Indiana has a good track record with jobs, crime, and those issues.

Spense was Trumps best pick. Cristy's record in NJ is terrible. Newt remarks about deporting Muslims that believe in Shria law is stupid. We do not deport or lock up people that believe in Communism or even Nazism.

Pardon my rambling, but I believe Bill Clinton knows they need someone on the ticket that can appeal to the working class Dems in PA, OH, VR, FL, MI, WV, NC states like that, that Bill Clinton was able to win easily. She has a lock on most women, blacks, Hispanics, she does not want to lose a portion of the populace that could make the difference in a few swing states.
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Old 07-19-2016, 02:08 PM   #575
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when I evaluate these things I try to do so in a way without any personal bias,
if I am evaluating the outcome of a sporting event and one team is my favorite and the other team I hate, I hope I can still objectively evaluate the skills and merits of how the contest will go in predicting what I believe is the likely outcome and choices the coaches will make during the contest,

but at the end of this contest, an objective evaluation is, team Clinton wins, I just don't call it an absolute foregone conclusion and with the score ran way up.

and team Trump has a shot and it is more than the longest of long shots.
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Old 07-19-2016, 02:39 PM   #576
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so, the plagerism thing

I watched CNN (Clinton News Network) last night for an hour

they ran side by side videos with text of the words, about six times in a one hour program

One would thing Melania spoke for a couple of minutes and about 25-30% was copied from Michelle, the way they were going on. Like when Biden did a cut and paste of that English guy.


So what did she copy?
A I was raised to believe one should work hard for what they want, my parents taught me that
B whey you say something you should honor your word,
C we believe these values are important and should be taught to children


obviously Melania is lying she doesn't believe that, she is stealing Michelle;s very unique life story.

I sat through Michelle's 2008 speech and really like it. Enthusiastically voted for Obama in 2008 with conviction.

And when I sat through Melania speech last night, I thought it was good. she looked great, delivery was good, decent speech, not amazing. But, lets keep in mind she speaks 5-6 languages, and English is her 4th? I am sure in her native tongue she could have personally written and delivered a better speech.

One could compare the text of the two speeches

Quote:
Thank you very much. Thank you. You have all been very kind to Donald and me, to our young son Barron, and to our whole family. t's a very nice welcome and we're excited to be with you at this historic convention. I am so proud of your choice for President of the United States, my husband, Donald J. Trump. And I can assure you, he is moved by this great honor. The 2016 Republican primaries were fierce and started with many candidates, 17 to be exact, and I know that Donald agrees with me when I mention how talented all of them are. They deserve respect and gratitude from all of us. However, when it comes to my husband, I will say that I am definitely biased, and for good reason.I have been with Donald for 18 years and I have been aware of his love for this country since we first met. He never had a hidden agenda when it comes to his patriotism, because, like me, he loves this country so much.I was born in Slovenia, a small, beautiful and then communist country in Central Europe. My sister Ines, who is an incredible woman and a friend, and I were raised by my wonderful parents. My elegant and hard-working mother Amalia introduced me to fashion and beauty. My father Viktor instilled in me a passion for business and travel. Their integrity, compassion and intelligence reflect to this day on me and for my love of family and America. From a young age, my parents impressed on me the values that you work hard for what you want in life: that your word is your bond and you do what you say and keep your promise; that you treat people with respect. They taught and showed me values and morals in their daily life. That is a lesson that I continue to pass along to our son, and we need to pass those lessons on to the many generation to follow. I travelled the world while working hard in the incredible arena of fashion.
After living and working in Milan and Paris, I arrived in New York City twenty years ago, and I saw both the joys and the hardships of daily life. On July 28th, 2006, I was very proud to become a citizen of the United States -- the greatest privilege on planet Earth. I cannot, or will not, take the freedoms this country offers for granted. But these freedoms have come with a price so many times. The sacrifices made by our veterans are reminders to us of this. I would like to take this moment to recognize an amazing veteran, the great Senator Bob Dole. And let us thank all of our veterans in the arena today, and those across our great country. We are all truly blessed to be here. That will never change.
I can tell you with certainty that my husband has been concerned about our country for as long as I have known him. With all of my heart, I know that he will make a great and lasting difference. Donald has a deep and unbounding determination and a never-give-up attitude. I have seen him fight for years to get a project done — or even started — and he does not give up! If you want someone to fight for you and your country, I can assure you, he is the 'guy'. He will never, ever, give up. And, most importantly, he will never, ever, let you down. Donald is, and always has been, an amazing leader. Now, he will go to work for you. His achievements speak for themselves, and his performance throughout the primary campaign proved that he knows how to win. He also knows how to remain focused on improving our country — on keeping it safe and secure. He is tough when he has to be but he is also kind and fair and caring. This kindness is not always noted, but it is there for all to see. That is one reason I fell in love with him to begin with. Donald is intensely loyal. To family, friends, employees, country. He has the utmost respect for his parents, Mary and Fred, to his sisters Maryanne and Elizabeth, to his brother Robert and to the memory of his late brother Fred. His children have been cared for and mentored to the extent that even his adversaries admit they are an amazing testament to who he is as a man and a father. There is a great deal of love in the Trump family. That is our bond, and that is our strength.
Yes, Donald thinks big, which is especially important when considering the presidency of the United States. No room for small thinking. No room for small results. Donald gets things done. Our country is underperforming and needs new leadership. Leadership is also what the world needs. Donald wants our country to move forward in the most positive of ways. Everyone wants change. Donald is the only one that can deliver it. We should not be satisfied with stagnation. Donald wants prosperity for all Americans. We need new programs to help the poor and opportunities to challenge the young. There has to be a plan for growth — only then will fairness result. My husband's experience exemplifies growth and the successful passage of opportunity to the next generation. His success indicates inclusion rather than division. My husband offers a new direction, welcoming change, prosperity and greater cooperation among peoples and nations. Donald intends to represent all the people, not just some of the people. That includes Christians and Jews and Muslims, it includes Hispanics and African-Americans and Asians, and the poor and the middle class. Throughout his career, Donald has successfully worked with people of many faiths and with many nations.
Like no one else, I have seen the talent, the energy, the tenacity, the resourceful mind and the simple goodness of heart that God gave Donald Trump. Now is the time to use those gifts as never before, for purposes far greater than ever before. And he will do this better than anyone else can... and it won't even be close. Everything depends on it, for our cause and for our country. People are counting on him — all the millions of you who have touched us so much with your kindness and your confidence. You have turned this unlikely campaign into a movement that is still gaining in strength and number. The primary season, and its toughness, is behind us.
Let's all come together in a national campaign like no other! The race will be hard-fought, all the way to November. There will be good times and hard times and unexpected turns — it would not be a Trump contest without excitement and drama. But through it all, my husband will remain focused on only one thing: this beautiful country, that he loves so much. If I am honored to serve as first lady, I will use that wonderful privilege to try to help people in our country who need it the most. One of the many causes dear to my heart is helping children and women.You judge a society by how it treats its citizens. We must do our best to ensure that every child can live in comfort and security, with the best possible education. As citizens of this great nation, it is kindness, love and compassion for each other that will bring us together — and keep us together. These are the values Donald and I will bring to the White House. My husband is ready to lead this great nation. He is ready to fight, every day, to give our children the better future they deserve. Ladies and gentlemen, Donald J. Trump is ready to serve and lead this country as the next president of the United States. Thank you, God bless you, and God bless America.

Quote:
As you might imagine, for Barack, running for president is nothing compared to that first game of basketball with my brother, Craig.

I can't tell you how much it means to have Craig and my mom here tonight. Like Craig, I can feel my dad looking down on us, just as I've felt his presence in every grace-filled moment of my life.

At 6-foot-6, I've often felt like Craig was looking down on me too ... literally. But the truth is, both when we were kids and today, he wasn't looking down on me. He was watching over me.

And he's been there for me every step of the way since that clear February day 19 months ago, when — with little more than our faith in each other and a hunger for change — we joined my husband, Barack Obama, on the improbable journey that's brought us to this moment.

But each of us also comes here tonight by way of our own improbable journey.

I come here tonight as a sister, blessed with a brother who is my mentor, my protector and my lifelong friend.

I come here as a wife who loves my husband and believes he will be an extraordinary president.

I come here as a mom whose girls are the heart of my heart and the center of my world — they're the first thing I think about when I wake up in the morning, and the last thing I think about when I go to bed at night. Their future — and all our children's future — is my stake in this election.

And I come here as a daughter — raised on the South Side of Chicago by a father who was a blue-collar city worker and a mother who stayed at home with my brother and me. My mother's love has always been a sustaining force for our family, and one of my greatest joys is seeing her integrity, her compassion and her intelligence reflected in my own daughters.

My dad was our rock. Although he was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis in his early 30s, he was our provider, our champion, our hero. As he got sicker, it got harder for him to walk, it took him longer to get dressed in the morning. But if he was in pain, he never let on. He never stopped smiling and laughing — even while struggling to button his shirt, even while using two canes to get himself across the room to give my mom a kiss. He just woke up a little earlier and worked a little harder.

He and my mom poured everything they had into me and Craig. It was the greatest gift a child can receive: never doubting for a single minute that you're loved, and cherished, and have a place in this world. And thanks to their faith and hard work, we both were able to go on to college. So I know firsthand from their lives — and mine — that the American dream endures.

And you know, what struck me when I first met Barack was that even though he had this funny name, even though he'd grown up all the way across the continent in Hawaii, his family was so much like mine. He was raised by grandparents who were working-class folks just like my parents, and by a single mother who struggled to pay the bills just like we did. Like my family, they scrimped and saved so that he could have opportunities they never had themselves. And Barack and I were raised with so many of the same values: that you work hard for what you want in life; that your word is your bond and you do what you say you're going to do; that you treat people with dignity and respect, even if you don't know them, and even if you don't agree with them.

And Barack and I set out to build lives guided by these values, and pass them on to the next generation. Because we want our children — and all children in this nation — to know that the only limit to the height of your achievements is the reach of your dreams and your willingness to work for them.

And as our friendship grew, and I learned more about Barack, he introduced me to the work he'd done when he first moved to Chicago after college. Instead of heading to Wall Street, Barack had gone to work in neighborhoods devastated when steel plants shut down and jobs dried up. And he'd been invited back to speak to people from those neighborhoods about how to rebuild their community.

The people gathered together that day were ordinary folks doing the best they could to build a good life. They were parents living paycheck to paycheck; grandparents trying to get by on a fixed income; men frustrated that they couldn't support their families after their jobs disappeared. Those folks weren't asking for a handout or a shortcut. They were ready to work — they wanted to contribute. They believed — like you and I believe — that America should be a place where you can make it if you try.

Barack stood up that day, and spoke words that have stayed with me ever since. He talked about "The world as it is" and "The world as it should be." And he said that all too often, we accept the distance between the two, and settle for the world as it is — even when it doesn't reflect our values and aspirations. But he reminded us that we know what our world should look like. We know what fairness and justice and opportunity look like. And he urged us to believe in ourselves — to find the strength within ourselves to strive for the world as it should be. And isn't that the great American story?

It's the story of men and women gathered in churches and union halls, in town squares and high school gyms — people who stood up and marched and risked everything they had — refusing to settle, determined to mold our future into the shape of our ideals.

It is because of their will and determination that this week, we celebrate two anniversaries: the 88th anniversary of women winning the right to vote, and the 45th anniversary of that hot summer day when [Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.] lifted our sights and our hearts with his dream for our nation.

I stand here today at the crosscurrents of that history — knowing that my piece of the American dream is a blessing hard won by those who came before me. All of them driven by the same conviction that drove my dad to get up an hour early each day to painstakingly dress himself for work. The same conviction that drives the men and women I've met all across this country:

People who work the day shift, kiss their kids goodnight, and head out for the night shift — without disappointment, without regret — that goodnight kiss a reminder of everything they're working for.

The military families who say grace each night with an empty seat at the table. The servicemen and women who love this country so much, they leave those they love most to defend it.

The young people across America serving our communities — teaching children, cleaning up neighborhoods, caring for the least among us each and every day.

People like Hillary Clinton, who put those 18 million cracks in the glass ceiling, so that our daughters — and sons — can dream a little bigger and aim a little higher.

People like Joe Biden, who's never forgotten where he came from and never stopped fighting for folks who work long hours and face long odds and need someone on their side again.

All of us driven by a simple belief that the world as it is just won't do — that we have an obligation to fight for the world as it should be.

That is the thread that connects our hearts. That is the thread that runs through my journey and Barack's journey and so many other improbable journeys that have brought us here tonight, where the current of history meets this new tide of hope.

That is why I love this country.

And in my own life, in my own small way, I've tried to give back to this country that has given me so much. That's why I left a job at a law firm for a career in public service, working to empower young people to volunteer in their communities. Because I believe that each of us — no matter what our age or background or walk of life — each of us has something to contribute to the life of this nation.

It's a belief Barack shares — a belief at the heart of his life's work.

It's what he did all those years ago, on the streets of Chicago, setting up job training to get people back to work and after-school programs to keep kids safe — working block by block to help people lift up their families.

It's what he did in the Illinois Senate, moving people from welfare to jobs, passing tax cuts for hard-working families, and making sure women get equal pay for equal work.

It's what he's done in the United States Senate, fighting to ensure the men and women who serve this country are welcomed home not just with medals and parades but with good jobs and benefits and health care — including mental health care.

That's why he's running — to end the war in Iraq responsibly, to build an economy that lifts every family, to make health care available for every American, and to make sure every child in this nation gets a world class education all the way from preschool to college. That's what Barack Obama will do as president of the United States of America.

He'll achieve these goals the same way he always has — by bringing us together and reminding us how much we share and how alike we really are. You see, Barack doesn't care where you're from, or what your background is, or what party — if any — you belong to. That's not how he sees the world. He knows that thread that connects us — our belief in America's promise, our commitment to our children's future — is strong enough to hold us together as one nation even when we disagree.

It was strong enough to bring hope to those neighborhoods in Chicago.

It was strong enough to bring hope to the mother he met worried about her child in Iraq; hope to the man who's unemployed, but can't afford gas to find a job; hope to the student working nights to pay for her sister's health care, sleeping just a few hours a day.

And it was strong enough to bring hope to people who came out on a cold Iowa night and became the first voices in this chorus for change that's been echoed by millions of Americans from every corner of this nation.

Millions of Americans who know that Barack understands their dreams; that Barack will fight for people like them; and that Barack will finally bring the change we need.

And in the end, after all that's happened these past 19 months, the Barack Obama I know today is the same man I fell in love with 19 years ago. He's the same man who drove me and our new baby daughter home from the hospital 10 years ago this summer, inching along at a snail's pace, peering anxiously at us in the rearview mirror, feeling the whole weight of her future in his hands, determined to give her everything he'd struggled so hard for himself, determined to give her what he never had: the affirming embrace of a father's love.

And as I tuck that little girl and her little sister into bed at night, I think about how one day, they'll have families of their own. And one day, they — and your sons and daughters — will tell their own children about what we did together in this election. They'll tell them how this time, we listened to our hopes, instead of our fears. How this time, we decided to stop doubting and to start dreaming. How this time, in this great country — where a girl from the South Side of Chicago can go to college and law school, and the son of a single mother from Hawaii can go all the way to the White House – we committed ourselves to building the world as it should be.

So tonight, in honor of my father's memory and my daughters' future — out of gratitude to those whose triumphs we mark this week, and those whose everyday sacrifices have brought us to this moment — let us devote ourselves to finishing their work; let us work together to fulfill their hopes; and let us stand together to elect Barack Obama president of the United States of America.

Thank you, God bless you, and God bless America.
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Old 07-19-2016, 02:42 PM   #577
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Once again, I will tell you that I do appreciate the way you post and interact with others on this board. You know I have been around for awhile and following these Presidential elections for some time. I am not an ideologue, but make evaluations based on how I see things at this point in time based on events and behavior of the candidates.

All that said, I think Hillary's strongest asset is Bill Clinton, he is older now and not as sharp as he was in the 90s. But even a somewhat diminished Bill Clinton is quite tremendous.
Unlike some in here saying this election is in the bag, a blowout. he will not underestimate what can happen, what portion of the demographic Trump must capture that could tip a close election.
Trumps best (probably only) path to victory is getting working class voters that have traditionally voted Democrat. Hillary - Warren does not help with middle America. Indiana has a good track record with jobs, crime, and those issues.

Spense was Trumps best pick. Cristy's record in NJ is terrible. Newt remarks about deporting Muslims that believe in Shria law is stupid. We do not deport or lock up people that believe in Communism or even Nazism.

Pardon my rambling, but I believe Bill Clinton knows they need someone on the ticket that can appeal to the working class Dems in PA, OH, VR, FL, MI, WV, NC states like that, that Bill Clinton was able to win easily. She has a lock on most women, blacks, Hispanics, she does not want to lose a portion of the populace that could make the difference in a few swing states.
I think the decision comes down to a couple things. How many votes will you gain from Kaine picking a up middle of the road white males, vs. how many will Warren pick up with young progressives/bernie supporters, a boost of enthusiasm, someone that can bring an arena of people to their feet, a truly historic ticket of two women, someone who is seen as honest and genuine, and a proven, effective attack dog on Trump/Pence...

I think Warren outweighs Kaine by about 5 percentage points on this matchup.
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Old 07-19-2016, 02:43 PM   #578
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Hell, I'd say the most likely option is that they pulled from Obama's speech on purpose so they could deny it and be all "Look what the mean liberal media is saying! We can't catch a break from those big meanies!"

And that's all I'll say about Melania Trump. All my disdain and scorn is reserved for her Large Orange Overlord.
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Old 07-19-2016, 02:52 PM   #579
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Spense was Trumps best pick.
Who?
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Old 07-19-2016, 02:59 PM   #580
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As usual, deep flies in with the obfuscation of the actual issue. No one is claiming that Melania Trump plagiarized all of Michelle Obama's speech. The claim is that she plagiarized a specific section of the speech. Then deep claims that it was only some themes that were similar. Let's go to the actual text in question between the two speeches, shall we?

Michelle Obama's 2008 speech:
Quote:
“You work hard for what you want in life; that your word is your bond and you do what you say you’re going to do; that you treat people with dignity and respect, even if you don’t know them, and even if you don’t agree with them.”
Melania Trump's speech:
Quote:
“From a young age, my parents impressed on me the values that you work hard for what you want in life; that your word is your bond and you do what you say and keep your promise; that you treat people with respect,”
Michelle Obama's speech:
Quote:
“We want our children — and all children in this nation — to know that the only limit to the height of your achievements is the reach of your dreams and your willingness to work for them.”
Melania Trump's speech:
Quote:
“We want our children in this nation to know that the only limit to your achievements is the strength of your dreams and your willingness to work for them.”
That's not similar themes, that is plagiarism, plain and simple.

And you know it, too, deep. Stop trolling.
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Old 07-19-2016, 03:00 PM   #581
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I think the decision comes down to a couple things. How many votes will you gain from Kaine picking a up middle of the road white males, vs. how many will Warren pick up with young progressives/bernie supporters, a boost of enthusiasm, someone that can bring an arena of people to their feet, a truly historic ticket of two women, someone who is seen as honest and genuine, and a proven, effective attack dog on Trump/Pence...

I think Warren outweighs Kaine by about 5 percentage points on this matchup.
You very well could be right, we'll see what happens on Friday
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Old 07-19-2016, 03:14 PM   #582
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I am so, so hoping for Warren. That ticket against the mess that is the GOP would make me ridiculously happy.

Quote:
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Lost in all the plagiarism stuff is how unabashadly vile the first day of the convention was. Anti-women, anti-immigrant, anti-minorities vitriol at its loudest. The RNC is basically a live version of the comments section of an article about President Obama in a conservative newspaper.
Lord, yes, this. I'll take a woman with an e-mail scandal over all of that any day. No way in hell do I want to spend four (god forbid, eight) years listening to and having to deal with that shit.

On that note, by the way...

MSNBC’s Tamron Hall Confronts Scott Baio for Tweet Calling Hillary Clinton a ‘C*nt’ - The Daily Beast

Classy bunch the GOP's hanging out with . Mmhm.

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sadly, reality is going to crush those dreams.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...=top-news&_r=0
Here's hoping.
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Old 07-19-2016, 03:57 PM   #583
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I must say the Hillary photo
 


"trumps" the 2012 Romney family photo



for unintended internet humor
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Old 07-19-2016, 04:28 PM   #584
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I'm hoping they give Scott Baio a role in the administration. Seems like the kinda guy who should be in charge of somethin'
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Old 07-19-2016, 04:33 PM   #585
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Axiom (not to be confused w Axver) has been polling 7 key counties that are bellwether counties in determining which way a state will vote. Here are the results.

Hillsborough County, FL: Clinton 40% / Trump 43% (Trump +3)

Jefferson County, CO: Clinton 39% / Trump 40% (Trump +1)

Watauga County, NC: Clinton 39% / Trump 46% (Trump +7)

Sandusky County, OH: Clinton 31% / Trump 42% (Trump +11)

Luzerne County, PA: Clinton 32% / Trump 55% (Trump +23)

Loudon County, VA: Clinton 44% / Trump 41% (Clinton +3)

Washoe County, NV: Clinton 36% / Trump 48% (Trump +12)

Not surprised by Loudon county since its populated with beltway workers who don't want their gravy train disrupted.

I live right outside Luzerne, County PA (Wilkes-Barre 570,000 pop) and the plus 23 is no joke. It was plus 15 two months ago. The county is heavy on legacy Democrats who's parents grew up under FDR. The leftward lurch of the party in the past 7 years has not sat well with these voters. We are 2 hours from both NYC and Philly where brash talk is seen as a positive.

Washoe County NV includes Reno-Sparks. Despite a couple bankruptcies casino workers still would rather work for a Trump property than a shitty gambling Conglomerate like Caesars. I lived in Vegas for a couple years and the golden ticket for workers is to work at a Wynn property.




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