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Old 07-14-2016, 04:20 PM   #361
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Cause he was "folksy" was the term I recall being thrown around at the time.

I suppose a family dinner with George wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.
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Old 07-14-2016, 04:49 PM   #362
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Especially if he's bringing the booze.
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Old 07-14-2016, 05:14 PM   #363
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Especially if he's bringing the cocaine.

made that a bit more Newport Beach for you.
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Old 07-14-2016, 05:20 PM   #364
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Pence is the safest pick for Trump. The guy has experience in Washington (which I thought was a bad thing.....), and leads a state.

He also fits more into the mold of what the GOP platform is about. Extremely religious, almost on par with Cruz. Only difference is I don't think Pence, or any of his relatives, have openly stated he's chosen by God to lead this country. Pence has stated that he puts his faith first, conservatism second, and party third.

Indiana can't wait to get rid of him.

If you want a conspiracy, maybe Trump picks him so Indiana can get a D into the Gov office
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Old 07-14-2016, 05:44 PM   #365
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Pence's Midwestern sensibilities will amplify Trumps rust belt appeal. More of a softer touch which will help in farm country of Iowa.


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Old 07-14-2016, 05:48 PM   #366
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made that a bit more Newport Beach for you.


Well played
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Old 07-14-2016, 05:53 PM   #367
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Trumps Social Media team has posted a Pokemon Go animation capturing Hillary on his FB page. Sign of the times. Could you imagine capturing a rare Dukakis? Mario stomping on Mondale?

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Old 07-14-2016, 06:02 PM   #368
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Trumps Social Media team has posted a Pokemon Go animation capturing Hillary on his FB page. Sign of the times. Could you imagine any worthy presidential candidate doing an 8th grade stunt like this?


No, no I can't... Even the worst of our dead presidents are rolling in their graves.
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Old 07-14-2016, 11:02 PM   #369
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Understanding Hillary: The Clinton America sees isn’t the Clinton colleagues know. Why are they so different?

This is a really fascinating and well written article about Hillary and the public's perception of her.
Very good article, thanks for posting. Almost all of it rings very true to me. So much in it is quotable, but this is one point, taken from the very beginning, that I want to bring up:

Quote:
Her explanation for the Gap is simple enough. “There’s a lot of behavioral science that if you attack someone endlessly — even if none of what you say is true — the very fact of attacking that person raises doubts and creates a negative perspective,” she says. “As someone Exhibit A on that — since it has been a long time that I’ve been in that position — I get that.”
This is very true. And the next paragraph, where the author gives several counterexamples of male politicians who have done well despite being attacked - the point he seems to be missing is that none of them have spent 25 or so years consistently in the spotlight being under such a sustained attack as she has been.

Anyway, that point just barely scratches the surface. The communication and listening style issues are fascinating, as is her ability to compartmentalize.
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Old 07-14-2016, 11:15 PM   #370
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No, no I can't... Even the worst of our dead presidents are rolling in their graves.

I see what you did editing my quote. Don't misquote me or I'll pull your press credentials BVS! LOL


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Old 07-14-2016, 11:19 PM   #371
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I had dinner the other night with a friend who worked for a moderate GOP senator on the hill 10 years ago. He's now in the private sector. He's voting for Hillary. He thinks that she is, and probably has to be, an inveterate liar. But not about things that actually matter. It's on the real issues, the issues that matter, that she's basically a superstar. Hardworking, ultra informed, etc. he also mentioned that she seems to have a kind of public autism and that in person she's warm, caring, almost inspiring. The kind of boss who would call and congratulate you on the birth of a child.

Fwiw.
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Old 07-14-2016, 11:24 PM   #372
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I don't know if "public autism" is a fair way to describe an introvert.
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Old 07-15-2016, 12:15 AM   #373
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This is actually not true.
The only information we have is that the polls showed is that at that specific moment in time Sanders would have outperformed Clinton against Trump with primary voters..
It wasn't primary voters. It was the general electorate they were asking. In case you forgot, Trump isn't a Democrat.

Likewise, there's no way BVS's statement about made up polling discrepancies could be remotely true because they obviously were talking to different groups of people when doing the matchups (likely Democratic primary voters for Sanders vs. Clinton, and the general public or likely voters for the Democrats vs. Trump). Not to mention that rarely were general election matchup polls done concurrently while the same polling firm was doing a primary one for Democrats. Nor would they be likely to double-dip for two completely different polls.

At the end of the day, there's more Sanders voters that aren't going to bother showing up to the polls. Maybe they hate Clinton's politics. Or her personally. Or are young and just don't vote. That's really the difference maker. Sanders basically would be entitled to every lifelong Democrat voting for him in November and it's those lifelong Democrats that made up the vast majority of Clinton primary votes. Call them "independents" or life-long leftists like myself or young people that only care if Bernie is on the ticket...but whatever it is, it's a lot of people that won't vote for Clinton.

Case In Point:

http://www.npr.org/2016/07/12/485679...p-young-voters

Trump gains a whopping 1 percentage point with young people (18-30) when it's Clinton rather than Sanders on the Democratic ticket. But Clinton still has 23% of the youth vote not bother to vote for her when she's on the ticket. That's a massive loss of voters.
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Old 07-15-2016, 12:33 AM   #374
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I'm at a loss to understand the thought processes that suggest Candidate A performing much better than Candidate B in the primaries means that Candidate A will perform worse than Candidate B in a general election.

And I am closer to Sanders in ideology than I am to Clinton.

Let's say there's dots.

Clinton earned 17 blue dots in the primaries. Sanders earned 13 green dots.

Clinton defeated Sanders in the primaries.


Now, let's go over to the general election. Clinton will certainly get the 17 blue dots from the primaries plus other blue dots that didn't vote in the primaries. But how many of the green dots will she get (including those that voted for Sanders)? How many yellow dots from the middle? Will it be enough dots to combat the yellow and red ones that Trump ends up with?

To give a clear historical example, think George McGovern in 1972. To the left enough to excite voters and win the Democratic primaries, but too far to the left for the American public of 44 years ago. In that case, you have the Democrats nominating someone that did worse in the general election that some other candidates probably would have.

Likewise, idiots like Gingrich and Santorum woefully trailed Obama in match-up polling and there is no doubt among political prognosticators that they would have done far worse than Romney had they become the nominee. And neither was too far away from managing to do just that.

For this election, there's the questions about Clinton's own scandals (or "scandals" depending on who you ask) and her own personal likability. It's not impossible that she's weaker than the average Democratic candidate would have been given some of these underlying issues (as evidenced in favorability polling), the same sort of problems that led to a horse race for the Senate seat at the turn of the century and a loss to Obama in 2008.

There is just no way in my mind that the primary results of a group of 30,000,000 - most of them lifelong Democratic party voters that are far more supportive of Clinton than the rest of the general public, is indicative of the thought process of how 130,000,000 general election voters will react. Those are not equivalent sample sizes, especially when the other big candidate for the Democrats received votes from millions of people that said they'd never vote for Clinton in the first place (or had never even voted previously in their lives).
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Old 07-15-2016, 12:40 AM   #375
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I mean, I think it's pretty easy to see how *a* candidate who wins the primary might not do better than their primary opponent(s) in the general.

I don't know if Sanders is that guy. He's just as polar as Clinton is, as Trump is. This election is very different. Once the Jebbers and Rubio and the classical male republicans were out, there was no "standard choice." Sanders could've done well, or been trampled. I don't think early polling on him meant anything. Many people pointed it out... he was unscathed and would be ripped apart for being a Jewish socialist in America. But then again, he very well could have used his "honesty" factor to pull away "shake the system" voters from Trump.
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