All hail our Imperial Master Trump!
I mean... continue.
I mean... continue.
2016 US Presidential Election Thread Part VI
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Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
It's difficult to tell from this vantage point whether Trump will consume the captive GOP establishment or merely enslave them. But, one thing is for certain: there is no stopping him; he will soon be the nominee. And I, for one, welcome our new Imperial overlord. I'd like to remind them as a trusted FYM contributor, I can be helpful in rounding up others to build a wall along the US/Mexico border.
Salome
you are what you is
I think the Mexicans might build the wall themselves to prevent gross stupidity from entering their country.
elevated_u2_fan
Blue Crack Supplier
without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it's time for Americans to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?
deep
Blue Crack Addict
The people of Virginia spoke very loudly last night. They went to the polls in record numbers. Virginia is a true microcosm of the U S electorate. That is what I have been hearing lately.
OP
OP
I really needed this today:
PhilsFan
Blue Crack Addict
Look, no one is moving to Canada, even if Trump wins. Because then we'd have to deal with Norm Kelly.
without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it's time for Americans to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?
elevated_u2_fan
Blue Crack Supplier
better hurry up before the wall is built
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
so, two big stories for me from last night:
1. excellent set up for Clinton. she's much, much better when she has something to lose or is even a bit behind. when she's in front she's not as good. she's much better when the stakes seem high. Sanders' continued viability is not only good for the country, but good for her. she needs the competition. and he's doing a great job keeping the base (and the bros) engaged in the election while giving voice to major issues that could be overlooked. i expect a barn berning speech at the DNC convention in support of HRC.
2. the failure of Rubio. i had thought that he was going to become the anti-Trump, and that the establishment's estimation of him -- young, attractive, non-threatening ethnic, generally good on his feet, excellent ability to memorize and repurpose empty soundbytes -- was going to appeal to the party. but it turns out that the old, white, angry GOP base doesn't seem to like young, smooth-talkin' Hispanics. i guess i shouldn't be surprised.
1. excellent set up for Clinton. she's much, much better when she has something to lose or is even a bit behind. when she's in front she's not as good. she's much better when the stakes seem high. Sanders' continued viability is not only good for the country, but good for her. she needs the competition. and he's doing a great job keeping the base (and the bros) engaged in the election while giving voice to major issues that could be overlooked. i expect a barn berning speech at the DNC convention in support of HRC.
2. the failure of Rubio. i had thought that he was going to become the anti-Trump, and that the establishment's estimation of him -- young, attractive, non-threatening ethnic, generally good on his feet, excellent ability to memorize and repurpose empty soundbytes -- was going to appeal to the party. but it turns out that the old, white, angry GOP base doesn't seem to like young, smooth-talkin' Hispanics. i guess i shouldn't be surprised.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
...do you even know who Norm Kelly is?
ntalwar
Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid
I can't see (swing state) Virginia going Red again after being a Blue state in 2008/12.
Trump got trounced in the swing counties of Northern Va. by Rubio by about 40-25%. He has almost zero chance in the general there.
Trump got trounced in the swing counties of Northern Va. by Rubio by about 40-25%. He has almost zero chance in the general there.
Mrs. Garrison
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
The best hope for the Dems, and frankly the country, is that the huge number of Republicans in the anti-Trump crowd, which makes up over 60%, stay home during the general.
If they stay home, Trump gets destroyed.
If they show up and throw their support behind him, he might actually win. Which is an incredibly frightening thought.
If they stay home, Trump gets destroyed.
If they show up and throw their support behind him, he might actually win. Which is an incredibly frightening thought.
Mack_Again
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
suddenly that sounds like a great idea.
PhilsFan
Blue Crack Addict
I'm familiar with his Twitter presence as the old white Canadian guy who thinks he's hip, my understanding beyond that is that he works in the Toronto city government.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
We could save millions and call the matches now.
Well Trump did say he was going to get the Mexicans to pay for the wall themselves... perhaps we finally know how he was going to go about doing that.
bobsaget77
Rock n' Roll Doggie
They will.
If Trump wins the nomination, Republicans will get over it and vote for Trump because (a) they all hate Hillary and (b) he's no longer attacking their candidate. 5-6 months of just Trump vs. Hillary will cause Trump's #'s with Republicans to go way up, even if they don't love him.
Republicans show up, a good VP pick, and 15-20% of democrats flipping to Trump and this is looking real, folks.
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elevated_u2_fan
Blue Crack Supplier
how can anyone with more than 2 functioning brain cells be okay with this?
bobsaget77
Rock n' Roll Doggie
I despise Trump, but at some point reality has to set in. People have doubted him for months and months and months, but he keeps winning.
Here's what I want the republicans to do...
Rubio drops out, supports Cruz and becomes his VP. Kasich stays in long enough to beat Trump in Ohio. Carson drops out. Cruz vs Trump, Cruz wins.
Cruz/Rubio ticket in the general. Obviously, I'm the only Cruz supporter on FYM so you would all hate that. But that would be my dream scenario.
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BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
You MIGHT be right about republicans, but what would make anyone think he's getting any Democrat votes? Especially 15%Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference
bobsaget77
Rock n' Roll Doggie
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You've been wrong about Trump since day 1. You doubting him is basically a guarantee it will happen.
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BigMacPhisto
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
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It's actually fairly easy to stop Trump. Here's the idea I came up with:
If you're Kasich and Cruz, you tell all of your voters in Florida to support Rubio. Kasich and Cruz can't possibly win that state and it's a winner-take-all primary so they wouldn't be getting any delegates for third or fourth place anyway.
If you're Rubio and Cruz, you tell all of your voters in Ohio to support Kasich. Rubio and Cruz can't possibly win that state and it's a winner-take-all primary so they wouldn't be getting any delegates for third or fourth place anyway.
Trump walking away with zero delegates from Ohio and Florida would make his chances of winning the nomination before the convention basically impossible. Cruz and Rubio benefit as they can't possibly surpass Trump in delegates or eventually become the nominee without stopping Trump right now. Kasich benefits by being able to stop Trump and likely open things up for a contested convention where he can argue for the nomination or a VP slot.
Of course, they aren't strategically competent enough to agree to this...and even if they were, their egos would just get in the way.
Meanwhile, Trump actually has only received 34.2% of the vote so far, so his ceiling of 35% has in fact been correct. He really isn't that far ahead of Cruz (28.1%), nor is Rubio really trailing by that much (he's at 21.7% of the vote) and both of those candidates tend to be more people's second choices and get a much bigger boost than Trump in the days before a given state tends to vote.
The real reason Trump is dominating is because of some winner-take-all scenarios in a few states along with states that require a threshold in order to receive delegates. So that allows him to end up with like half the delegates despite receiving barely a third of the vote.
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump? | FiveThirtyEight
If you're Kasich and Cruz, you tell all of your voters in Florida to support Rubio. Kasich and Cruz can't possibly win that state and it's a winner-take-all primary so they wouldn't be getting any delegates for third or fourth place anyway.
If you're Rubio and Cruz, you tell all of your voters in Ohio to support Kasich. Rubio and Cruz can't possibly win that state and it's a winner-take-all primary so they wouldn't be getting any delegates for third or fourth place anyway.
Trump walking away with zero delegates from Ohio and Florida would make his chances of winning the nomination before the convention basically impossible. Cruz and Rubio benefit as they can't possibly surpass Trump in delegates or eventually become the nominee without stopping Trump right now. Kasich benefits by being able to stop Trump and likely open things up for a contested convention where he can argue for the nomination or a VP slot.
Of course, they aren't strategically competent enough to agree to this...and even if they were, their egos would just get in the way.
Meanwhile, Trump actually has only received 34.2% of the vote so far, so his ceiling of 35% has in fact been correct. He really isn't that far ahead of Cruz (28.1%), nor is Rubio really trailing by that much (he's at 21.7% of the vote) and both of those candidates tend to be more people's second choices and get a much bigger boost than Trump in the days before a given state tends to vote.
The real reason Trump is dominating is because of some winner-take-all scenarios in a few states along with states that require a threshold in order to receive delegates. So that allows him to end up with like half the delegates despite receiving barely a third of the vote.
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump? | FiveThirtyEight
BigMacPhisto
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
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Rubio's New Hampshire robot moment is going to go down as the worst mistake in the history of the primaries. He was surging like crazy there and could have conceivably even defeated Trump. Instead, he committed a major sin with that repetitious brain-dead nonsense and that rightfully cost him a ton of voters in New Hampshire and across the country.
Had he ended up with a great night at that debate, there's no doubt in my mind that he could have accomplished a surge in the rest of the country and won this thing rather easily. Now, it's pretty unlikely.
I do expect him to end up doing far better than Cruz by the end of this...he's got all that establishment support and a much better calendar of states coming up.
BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
ntalwar
Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid
Which blue states from 2012 would switch in order to enable that? I don't see it happening.
There's not a chance of 15-20% of democrats jumping to Trump.
Not. A. Chance.
His chances in a general election lie in the democrats not showing up to the polls in the same numbers as they have been for the Republicans; that he flips some swing states on turnout and turnout alone and pulls out a squeaker.
This is a real possibility at this point. Thanks, Republicans.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
Yeah, the only chance I see with a republican winning the election is if democrat voters have gotten too complacent. And, if history shows, third terms for parties tend to make the base complacent.
However, Trump will light a fire under their ass, against him.
However, Trump will light a fire under their ass, against him.
Mack_Again
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
what kind of sane Democrats will vote for Donald Drumpf?
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