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Old 03-16-2016, 08:28 AM   #676
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The beauty of a contested convention is that there is no right answer. They pick Trump and they're a joke. They defy the constituency and they're a joke.

I see a serious risk of a contested convention nominating Cruz, who is at least as scary with Trump but perhaps more electable.


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Old 03-16-2016, 09:13 AM   #677
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I honestly think Trump is more electable than Cruz. I think there's a decent swath of unaffiliated folks who might vote for Trump in a general election, I think the percentage of those folks who vote for Cruz is significantly lower.
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Old 03-16-2016, 09:27 AM   #678
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I see a serious risk of a contested convention nominating Cruz, who is at least as scary with Trump but perhaps more electable.


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You think Cruz is more electable? Outside of Cruz and the one family member that still likes him, I hadn't heard that.


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Old 03-16-2016, 09:33 AM   #679
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I see a serious risk of a contested convention nominating Cruz, who is at least as scary with Trump but perhaps more electable.


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Why? That's a way to make literally zero people happy. To the GOP, Cruz is just as much of a maniac. There's already been chatter that the party elites actually favor Trump to Cruz due to his legitimate lack of political ties coupled with his popular support. They would have to take a lot of responsibility for a Cruz gaffe. They don't have to take any responsibility if the convention chooses Trump. They just blame the constituency.
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Old 03-16-2016, 09:35 AM   #680
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You think Cruz is more electable? Outside of Cruz and the one family member that still likes him, I hadn't heard that.


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I hate to put too much stock into hypothetical matchup polls, but I'll link to them in this case, to at least show that I'm not completely insane. Trust them or don't, but I think they at least show that a position of Cruz being more electable than Trump is plausible.

Clinton vs. Trump: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5491.html

Clinton vs. Cruz: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-4034.html



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Old 03-16-2016, 09:40 AM   #681
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2016 US Presidential Election Thread Part VI

Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 View Post
Why? That's a way to make literally zero people happy. To the GOP, Cruz is just as much of a maniac. There's already been chatter that the party elites actually favor Trump to Cruz due to his legitimate lack of political ties coupled with his popular support. They would have to take a lot of responsibility for a Cruz gaffe. They don't have to take any responsibility if the convention chooses Trump. They just blame the constituency.

Because Cruz and Trump are likely to be relatively close in popular support, if not delegates, and it would be probably unwise for the GOP to attempt to install someone other than those two. If it comes down to a lesser-evil thing and Cruz seemingly would at least unite the base more effectively, I can see them going for Cruz. As I explained earlier, I'd prefer to have Trump than Cruz as nominee. Therefore, given the choice between Trump winning a majority of delegates and a pledge convention that may choose Cruz (not certainly, of course), I'd take locking in Trump. The risk of Cruz overwhelms the potential benefit of a tiny chance of Kasich/Romney/Paul Ryan, in my estimation.


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Old 03-16-2016, 09:42 AM   #682
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I dunno. Ted Cruz is, as we all know, not very popular.
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Old 03-16-2016, 09:42 AM   #683
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What might change my mind is if Kasich picks up some serious delegates in the Northeast, and the Establishment gets a bit more leverage at the convention.


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Old 03-16-2016, 09:43 AM   #684
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I dunno. Ted Cruz is, as we all know, not very popular.

Really, though? Exit polls have consistently shown Cruz beating Trump almost everywhere in a head-to-head matchup.


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Old 03-16-2016, 09:43 AM   #685
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Old 03-16-2016, 09:45 AM   #686
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This is LITERALLY the most horrifying thing I have ever seen.


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Old 03-16-2016, 09:56 AM   #687
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Old 03-16-2016, 10:42 AM   #688
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Really, though? Exit polls have consistently shown Cruz beating Trump almost everywhere in a head-to-head matchup.


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Except, of course, in this area of vote count.
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Old 03-16-2016, 11:31 AM   #689
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Except, of course, in this area of vote count.
Right, because Cruz has never faced Trump one-on-one. The dynamic of the race so far has been that Trump has been racking up pluralities because the anti-Trump vote is highly split, but GOP rules make it easy to sweep up an enormous amount of delegates off of pluralities. The GOP anti-Trumps have never coalesced around anyone, but have been a majority in every state so far. It's unlikely that much of the former Rubio base would go for Trump, and the same will be the case for the former Kasich base when Kasich is gone.
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Old 03-16-2016, 12:01 PM   #690
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The Democrats have a playbook for an evangelical conservative Texan.

Nobody has a playbook to take on Trump.

I think Hillary would rather face Cruz at this point.


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