2016 US Presidential Election Thread Part VI

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deep said:
I don't agree with your assessment of Trump or all of his supporters, some sure,
that said whatever the anti Trump people in here are going on about, Cruz has those same beliefs dyed to the core of his person and would use his Senate skills and connections to move them forward with success,
I believe Trump motivations are for accomplishing what he believes is best for his core constituents, fed up working class people, and there is some common ground there across party lines, I also think he could use the bully pulpit of the populace to get some decent? things accomplished,

but at the end of the day, I expect Hillary to win, but prefer Trump as the fall back option over Cruz with a GOP House and most likely a GOP Senate, people should think of that.
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You have much more faith than I do. I'd believe in the Easter Fairy riding magic leprechauns well before believing Trump would look out for anyone other than Trump.


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anitram said:
I've said before I'd rather go with Trump than Cruz.

Cruz is a true believer, with him you know what you're getting - an uncompromising dominionist. There is no middle ground there. The only advantage is that I think he's completely unelectable but if things go sideways, well he'd be the last person I'd want in the WH.

Trump is a blowhard asshole without any real ideas who has probably surrounded himself with yes men his whole life to feed his elephantine ego. But I think he is already moderating his message, I agree with all those who have said here and elsewhere that at his core he probably doesn't care about guns, gays, abortion or religion. Clearly Mexico isn't paying for a wall, clearly he's already said as much to the NYT, and as astonishing as it may sound I think that he'd be a more reasonable choice than Cruz. He is more media savvy than we think and he's pegged the dumb and racist Republican electorate for exactly what it is. But he's unscrupulous and will leave them in the trash as soon as he focuses on the general.

This isn't to say I in any way support Trump, his lack of vision, his idiotic statements or first grade behaviour. But I think 4 years with him would be a throwaway, Congress would let him do nothing he wants anyway. He'd probably appoint his liberal sister to SCOTUS. 4 years with Cruz are more terrifying to me.
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x1000000 ????????
 
Yeah, I'm not about settling on one or the other. Cruz is guaranteed to set us back a decade, but Trump could do more or less. I don't know what is "worse."
 
I think you can remove the "could" with Cruz. He will do all the terrible things he wants to.

But yeah, trump is just a huge question mark of upsetting the balance in the world.
 
Headache in a Suitcase said:
Cruz can't win. Trump can.

If Cruz somehow breaks through and takes the nomination, Trump goes third party and splits the GOP vote.

Trump wins, they all fall in line like the good sheep that they are.
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I know polls are polls and not definite results, but they suggest Trump's reach isn't very high at the national level. Granted, we all know he knows how to climb, but it seems like what you're saying is currently opposite of the suggestion from the numbers.
 
Headache in a Suitcase said:
Cruz can't win. Trump can.
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I read somewhere that Cruz won't get the nomination because he's so stubborn and extreme that he has no hope of winning over moderates, fence-sitters and disaffected Democrats. Which makes sense, but then can't the same be said for Trump..? Or is he winning these people over because he's that "breath of fresh air" etc?

Surprised to see Kasich not only hold on but gain a bit of strength. I thought he'd be long gone by now.
 
Kasich is only doing good in the state he is from.
Trump can get working class voters that typically go democratic because they believe he is not controlled or influenced by big money. Clintons have lots of ties to big money.
 
It all comes down to turn out. For the most part the dems benefit from the electoral college right now. But a GOP candidate that can excite voters might change the balance. Cruz doesn't excite voters, in fact he scares a lot of the senior portion and non southern conservatives. Fear, ignorance, and nostalgia are powerful and can excite, hence Trump is more dangerous.


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Cdjz8HMWwAAIO4E.jpg


Funny how conservatives change their tune on working class Americans when they start pulling the wrong lever. This from the National Review, which was just defended here a few weeks back.
 
cobl04 said:
what the fuck is an 'electoral college'
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It is why this election comes down to 2,3, or at most 5 states that will determine this election. Most likely only 2-3 of the 50 US States will determine the winner.


15 minutes on wiki and you will be more informed than most Americans.
 
deep said:
Trump can get working class voters that typically go democratic because they believe he is not controlled or influenced by big money.
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I seriously can't believe Trump has successfully sold this to people. Of all the people in the race, he's the most tied to big money. Proof snake oil salesmen will always have a market.

cobl04 said:
what the fuck is an 'electoral college'
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Oh Cobbler how have you got this far into US political threads without knowing about the electoral college! Friggin'. :tsk:

In short, Americans don't elect their president by a national popular vote. In each state, they vote for a slate of electors who are pledged to support a particular candidate. These electors, 538 in total (hence the name of a certain popular website), then vote for the president. Since it's a foregone conclusion in most states whether their voters will select a Democratic or Republican slate, the race basically comes down to a few large swing states. That's why we always hear so much about places like Florida or Ohio. It is possible to win the national popular vote and lose the electoral college - and this has happened multiple times.

The electoral college seems hideously complex, anachronistic, and undemocratic today, but it sort of made sense at the time. Keep in mind that back then it was a pretty radical experiment in democracy. The Australasian colonies became even more radical from the 1850s to the 1890s with innovations like full manhood suffrage, the secret ballot, and women's suffrage. In the UK before the 1830s, the vote was so restricted that (off the top of my head) less than one-sixth of adult men were eligible, and even the electoral reforms of the 1830s mainly only extended eligibilty within the middle classes rather than working people.
 
PhilsFan said:
Cdjz8HMWwAAIO4E.jpg


Funny how conservatives change their tune on working class Americans when they start pulling the wrong lever. This from the National Review, which was just defended here a few weeks back.
Click to expand...

When deep automation finishes off the middle class in its turn, journals like this will be the ones proposing gas chambers.
 
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