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Old 03-02-2016, 12:27 PM   #16
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Old 03-02-2016, 12:48 PM   #17
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I think the Mexicans might build the wall themselves to prevent gross stupidity from entering their country.
Well Trump did say he was going to get the Mexicans to pay for the wall themselves... perhaps we finally know how he was going to go about doing that.
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Old 03-02-2016, 01:16 PM   #18
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The best hope for the Dems, and frankly the country, is that the huge number of Republicans in the anti-Trump crowd, which makes up over 60%, stay home during the general.

If they stay home, Trump gets destroyed.

If they show up and throw their support behind him, he might actually win. Which is an incredibly frightening thought.

They will.
If Trump wins the nomination, Republicans will get over it and vote for Trump because (a) they all hate Hillary and (b) he's no longer attacking their candidate. 5-6 months of just Trump vs. Hillary will cause Trump's #'s with Republicans to go way up, even if they don't love him.
Republicans show up, a good VP pick, and 15-20% of democrats flipping to Trump and this is looking real, folks.


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Old 03-02-2016, 01:19 PM   #19
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Only in your dreams.
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Old 03-02-2016, 01:23 PM   #20
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They will.
If Trump wins the nomination, Republicans will get over it and vote for Trump because (a) they all hate Hillary and (b) he's no longer attacking their candidate. 5-6 months of just Trump vs. Hillary will cause Trump's #'s with Republicans to go way up, even if they don't love him.
Republicans show up, a good VP pick, and 15-20% of democrats flipping to Trump and this is looking real, folks.


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how can anyone with more than 2 functioning brain cells be okay with this?
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Old 03-02-2016, 01:25 PM   #21
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Only in your dreams.

I despise Trump, but at some point reality has to set in. People have doubted him for months and months and months, but he keeps winning.
Here's what I want the republicans to do...
Rubio drops out, supports Cruz and becomes his VP. Kasich stays in long enough to beat Trump in Ohio. Carson drops out. Cruz vs Trump, Cruz wins.
Cruz/Rubio ticket in the general. Obviously, I'm the only Cruz supporter on FYM so you would all hate that. But that would be my dream scenario.


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Old 03-02-2016, 01:29 PM   #22
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and 15-20% of democrats flipping to Trump and this is looking real, folks.


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You MIGHT be right about republicans, but what would make anyone think he's getting any Democrat votes? Especially 15%


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Old 03-02-2016, 01:37 PM   #23
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You MIGHT be right about republicans, but what would make anyone think he's getting any Democrat votes? Especially 15%


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You've been wrong about Trump since day 1. You doubting him is basically a guarantee it will happen.


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Old 03-02-2016, 01:45 PM   #24
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It's actually fairly easy to stop Trump. Here's the idea I came up with:

If you're Kasich and Cruz, you tell all of your voters in Florida to support Rubio. Kasich and Cruz can't possibly win that state and it's a winner-take-all primary so they wouldn't be getting any delegates for third or fourth place anyway.

If you're Rubio and Cruz, you tell all of your voters in Ohio to support Kasich. Rubio and Cruz can't possibly win that state and it's a winner-take-all primary so they wouldn't be getting any delegates for third or fourth place anyway.


Trump walking away with zero delegates from Ohio and Florida would make his chances of winning the nomination before the convention basically impossible. Cruz and Rubio benefit as they can't possibly surpass Trump in delegates or eventually become the nominee without stopping Trump right now. Kasich benefits by being able to stop Trump and likely open things up for a contested convention where he can argue for the nomination or a VP slot.

Of course, they aren't strategically competent enough to agree to this...and even if they were, their egos would just get in the way.


Meanwhile, Trump actually has only received 34.2% of the vote so far, so his ceiling of 35% has in fact been correct. He really isn't that far ahead of Cruz (28.1%), nor is Rubio really trailing by that much (he's at 21.7% of the vote) and both of those candidates tend to be more people's second choices and get a much bigger boost than Trump in the days before a given state tends to vote.

The real reason Trump is dominating is because of some winner-take-all scenarios in a few states along with states that require a threshold in order to receive delegates. So that allows him to end up with like half the delegates despite receiving barely a third of the vote.

Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump? | FiveThirtyEight
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Old 03-02-2016, 01:50 PM   #25
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2. the failure of Rubio. i had thought that he was going to become the anti-Drumpf, and that the establishment's estimation of him -- young, attractive, non-threatening ethnic, generally good on his feet, excellent ability to memorize and repurpose empty soundbytes -- was going to appeal to the party. but it turns out that the old, white, angry GOP base doesn't seem to like young, smooth-talkin' Hispanics. i guess i shouldn't be surprised.
Rubio's New Hampshire robot moment is going to go down as the worst mistake in the history of the primaries. He was surging like crazy there and could have conceivably even defeated Trump. Instead, he committed a major sin with that repetitious brain-dead nonsense and that rightfully cost him a ton of voters in New Hampshire and across the country.

Had he ended up with a great night at that debate, there's no doubt in my mind that he could have accomplished a surge in the rest of the country and won this thing rather easily. Now, it's pretty unlikely.

I do expect him to end up doing far better than Cruz by the end of this...he's got all that establishment support and a much better calendar of states coming up.
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Old 03-02-2016, 02:02 PM   #26
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You've been wrong about Trump since day 1. You doubting him is basically a guarantee it will happen.


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How have I been wrong about Trump?


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Old 03-02-2016, 02:05 PM   #27
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They will.
If Trump wins the nomination, Republicans will get over it and vote for Trump because (a) they all hate Hillary and (b) he's no longer attacking their candidate. 5-6 months of just Trump vs. Hillary will cause Trump's #'s with Republicans to go way up, even if they don't love him.
Republicans show up, a good VP pick, and 15-20% of democrats flipping to Trump and this is looking real, folks.
Which blue states from 2012 would switch in order to enable that? I don't see it happening.
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Old 03-02-2016, 02:35 PM   #28
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They will.
If Trump wins the nomination, Republicans will get over it and vote for Trump because (a) they all hate Hillary and (b) he's no longer attacking their candidate. 5-6 months of just Trump vs. Hillary will cause Trump's #'s with Republicans to go way up, even if they don't love him.
Republicans show up, a good VP pick, and 15-20% of democrats flipping to Trump and this is looking real, folks.


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There's not a chance of 15-20% of democrats jumping to Trump.

Not. A. Chance.

His chances in a general election lie in the democrats not showing up to the polls in the same numbers as they have been for the Republicans; that he flips some swing states on turnout and turnout alone and pulls out a squeaker.

This is a real possibility at this point. Thanks, Republicans.
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Old 03-02-2016, 03:14 PM   #29
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Yeah, the only chance I see with a republican winning the election is if democrat voters have gotten too complacent. And, if history shows, third terms for parties tend to make the base complacent.

However, Trump will light a fire under their ass, against him.
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Old 03-02-2016, 03:18 PM   #30
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what kind of sane Democrats will vote for Donald Drumpf?
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