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If your dream scenario doesn't work out and Trump is indeed the nominee, are you going to vote for him?
2016 US Presidential Election Thread Part VI
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If your dream scenario doesn't work out and Trump is indeed the nominee, are you going to vote for him?
PhilsFan
Blue Crack Addict
I think anyone pretending they know how this will play out at this point is kidding themselves. We're no longer dealing with a situation that has a historical comparison. And plenty of people are going to claim they knew it the whole time if their prediction ends up being correct, but they're full of it. There is no script here. It's going to get weird.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
Remember in 2012 when you barked at me for voting third party, claiming it was "the most important election of our lifetime?"
See, now I think it's fair this time 'round to bark at someone who isn't willing to vote against Mein Drumpf.
Mack_Again
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
so.........Bernie has chance?
but seriously though, this Bernie/Clinton race is going different direction than I anticipated.
BigMacPhisto
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
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Sanders' campaign effectively ended right around the time of Nevada when Super Tuesday state polls started coming out fairly often. It was clear that Sanders was going to do a lot worse than expected in those states (which already heavily favored Clinton).
In actuality, it was all over before it began. Black voters see Clinton as the continuation of Obama's legacy and clearly aren't willing to budge. Clinton gets dictator-type numbers with older blacks. Sanders never had a chance to change these people's minds.
With the extremely relevant issues he tackles, new voters he brings to the table and his truly progressive positions, Sanders has every reason to stay in the race until the convention. Not only will it help the Democratic Party in November (and shift their platform further left), but he can then have a case to be their fall-back option if Clinton has a major health scare or ends up being indicted. Having like 40% of the pledged delegates would make him a likely winner real quick at a contested convention.
In actuality, it was all over before it began. Black voters see Clinton as the continuation of Obama's legacy and clearly aren't willing to budge. Clinton gets dictator-type numbers with older blacks. Sanders never had a chance to change these people's minds.
With the extremely relevant issues he tackles, new voters he brings to the table and his truly progressive positions, Sanders has every reason to stay in the race until the convention. Not only will it help the Democratic Party in November (and shift their platform further left), but he can then have a case to be their fall-back option if Clinton has a major health scare or ends up being indicted. Having like 40% of the pledged delegates would make him a likely winner real quick at a contested convention.
Mack_Again
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
oh here's something that wouldn't surprise us: Carson: 'I do not see a political path forward' after Super Tuesday results | US news | The Guardian
but it's so sad that Clinton's appeal to black voters is so superficial and shallow, though.
but it's so sad that Clinton's appeal to black voters is so superficial and shallow, though.
Mack_Again
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
so nobody here talking about commotion Bill caused in Massachusetts in the polling station?
BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
bobsaget77
Rock n' Roll Doggie
Right now, no. I don't know where things would stand 8 months from now. But if I the election were held today and Trump was the nominee, I would vote for Gary Johnson on the Libertarian ballot. I wish Biden would have ran for the DEM nominee. I wouldn't vote for him, but I could most definitely stomach him more than Hillary.
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LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
- the Sanders campaign doesn't want to be whiners
- the Clinton campaign has no reason to talk about it
- the media clearly doesn't want to support the idea of dethroning Clinton
- the Republicans clearly want to face her, not Sanders
Nobody cares. He got away with whatever illegal shit he did.
PhilsFan
Blue Crack Addict
I don't recall calling it the most important election of our lifetime and certainly don't feel that it was, but I do remember taking issue with voting third party once it was clear that no third party candidates had a chance in 2012. But yeah, the general election is pretty clearly structured as a one-or-the-other choice in the United States. I'm not a fan of getting cute with that, it's basically throwing your vote away.
My point was that it's no longer the time to act like we're all sure Trump can't win. I don't trust the electorate enough for me to count him out.
deep
Blue Crack Addict
I would like to take this time to ask all of you to join me in a moment of silence for Dr. Ben Carson.
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thank you
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thank you
Bluer White
New Yorker
No one would attack the good doctor. It proved to be fatal.
deep
Blue Crack Addict
He had that claw hammer ready to go, too. (street cred)
corianderstem
Blue Crack Distributor
When he does drop out, I'm sure no one will even notice.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
You're right, it was someone else who said that.
I will say that I've evolved over the last four years to a point where I'm happy with the direction of the Democratic Party, and would in no circumstances throw my vote away.
But I still stand by the idea that if you're not fundamentally on board with one of your two choices, you're not obliged to pick one or the other. Only in dire cases, like Donald Trump (or, I suppose, Ted Cruz), do I actually advocate voting for the pure sake of not allowing someone to take office. That's because I didn't see Mitt Romney as a *problem*.
In hindsight, though, I woulud've voted for Obama in 2012 given that his second term was far better than his first term.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
Pretty sure he already did (according to John Kasich). He's probably keeping hush hush about officially suspending his campaign so that he can borrow the national spotlight to run for a senate seat in Florida.
ntalwar
Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid
The prediction markets at this early stage haven't counted him out either - a Republican still has a 36% chance to win. Knowledge of one's local electorate (important issues, demographic trends, prior turnout, etc.), especially in swing states/counties does make a difference in trusting the electorate imo.
Mrs. Garrison
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
I am proud that Oklahoma went to Bernie Sanders last night. I am equally offended that Oklahoma went for Ted Cruz as well.
Fuck Ted Cruz.
Fuck Ted Cruz.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
Well yeah, he's the deputy Mayor, and has an unpaid "social media intern" that posts silly shit on his twitter account. He hung out with Drake a couple times in the summer and nobody has thought much of him since.
I was just confused at the comparison with Trump, as if he's a constant intolerable presence up here or something.
Whatever, i'm reading too much into a joke. As you were.
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cobl04
45:33
Betting markets have been pretty consistent from earlier in the week. Trump's chances remain at around 80%. The main difference is that Rubio fell about 5 points to 14% and Cruz is up to 5%. Those numbers sound reasonable to me.
I think Democrats still prefer to face Trump rather than Rubio (they'd really like to face Cruz though), but I think many in the party are scared right now. As PFan said, Trump's ascencion probably means the election cannot be predicted by historical standards. But Dems have two things going for them: the Republican contest may drag on for some time, and there might be high turnout of people scared that Trump will become the next President.
It's interesting to see where Rubio goes from here. Does he drop out if he loses Florida? He seems to be hanging by a thread right now.
I doubt that Cruz gains much ground, though. He was supposed to do better than he did in the Southern States.
I think Democrats still prefer to face Trump rather than Rubio (they'd really like to face Cruz though), but I think many in the party are scared right now. As PFan said, Trump's ascencion probably means the election cannot be predicted by historical standards. But Dems have two things going for them: the Republican contest may drag on for some time, and there might be high turnout of people scared that Trump will become the next President.
It's interesting to see where Rubio goes from here. Does he drop out if he loses Florida? He seems to be hanging by a thread right now.
I doubt that Cruz gains much ground, though. He was supposed to do better than he did in the Southern States.
prbiker15
Blue Crack Addict
Brilliant.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
Ladies and gentlemen... Governor Chris 'Farva' Christie
PhilsFan
Blue Crack Addict
My thought is more or less this: not voting for the Democrat because you're pissed off they're not your ideal candidate is selfish and ignores those who would be attacked by GOP policies under a Republican president.
I have serious reservations about Hillary, but I'd never dream of not voting for her when the alternative is one of these Republicans.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
But these are two totally different times.
2012 wasn't Obama not being my "ideal candidate." He wasn't my candidate at all. That's the difference. The idea that I "belong" to the Democratic Party, and was merely protesting my vote... that's not true and it's not correct.
Things have changed. Times have changed. I have changed. It's different, now.
cobl04
45:33
But how are things ever going to start changing for the better if people vote for the lesser of two evils rather than going 'no fuck this I'm voting for Jill Stein' or whoever?
ntalwar
Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid
I think the Republican leadership is panicking because they have access to more detailed polling data and data analytics. I wouldn't be surprised if the turnout (against him) among the many ethnic and religious groups he has offended sets records.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
I'm curious as to what you think "more detailed polling data and data analytics" is, and why the republicans would have it?
There's a difference between a campaign, who has ground game in different states and locations, who might have access to internal polling that they don't share. But, on a national level, there's no secret data that exists that the Republican Party has access to that we don't see. The Republican Party is shitting their pants because Donald Trump is about to label them all as racist, xenophobic, and sexist bullies, who use the same rhetoric as Adolph Hitler. And that's going to cause them to lose the senate, and the house. That's why republican leadership is panicking.
BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
Yeah, this election may come down to fear; on one side an ignorant fear of people that don't look or speak like them, on the other a legitimate fear(that's shared by right and left alike) of what a irrational erratic ego will do with that kind of power.
My guess is that more Republicans will turn than Democrats, now if they begrudgingly vote for Clinton, third party, or stay home I don't know.
We shall see
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My guess is that more Republicans will turn than Democrats, now if they begrudgingly vote for Clinton, third party, or stay home I don't know.
We shall see
Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference
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