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Old 02-22-2016, 04:49 PM   #631
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Less than 20 hours ago you were saying Rubio had it in the bag
Yeah, but after seeing the poll numbers in those two states...I mean, how the hell are they really going to catch the guy at this point?

Kasich is clearly a huge part of the problem. He's doing surprisingly well in a lot of states and if he runs through Super Tuesday, he could cut off Cruz and Rubio from reaching the various thresholds needed to earn delegates in certain states. I mean, those poll results I posted would lead to all the other candidates conceivably falling under 20% each in those two states which would mean Trump would get all of the delegates if they have such a threshold in place.
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Old 02-22-2016, 04:50 PM   #632
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Wow, just looked at the 538 website. Didn't realize how good of shape Hilary was in. For some reason it felt like the media was making it sound like she's in deep deep trouble.

Then again, I've been really busy playing the Wii lately.
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Old 02-22-2016, 04:57 PM   #633
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He's like a cat chasing a laser light. His "analysis" on the previous page was based on Trump not being anyone's second choice...in a race of 6-8 people. Once it becomes Trump vs Cruz vs Rubio, Trump will be the 2nd choice of both Rubio and Cruz supporters. The establishment utterly despises Cruz. And Cruz folk utterly despise the establishment.
Well, that's really the big question here...is Trump going to pick up supporters as these other candidates (such as Carson and Kasich real soon) flee the race. There's a lot of conflicting information out there and there's even polling saying 70% of Republicans don't want Trump as their nominee (which mathematically doesn't make much sense as Trump has been hovering well above 30% nationwide lately).

Trump actually addressed this same issue after South Carolina, complaining about the media saying how nobody would flock to his camp after their favored candidates dropped out (he thinks plenty will). But we've yet to see much evidence of him clearing the hypothesized ceiling of about 40% once a few more people left the race. Likewise, Trump continues to underperform his polling every single time which means he's picking up absolutely nobody from the other camps...so far.
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Old 02-22-2016, 05:06 PM   #634
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Wow, just looked at the 538 website. Didn't realize how good of shape Hilary was in. For some reason it felt like the media was making it sound like she's in deep deep trouble.

Then again, I've been really busy playing the Wii lately.

She's tied in actual pledged delegates...Super Tuesday states and South Carolina are a more favorable calendar to her than Sanders, but if he passes her in nationwide support (and he's getting awfully close, trailing by about 5% in the average of the most recent polls), things can start flipping in his direction real soon.

The superdelegate count is essentially meaningless. I don't think the party with "democracy" in their friggin' name is just going to ignore the will of the voters if Bernie ends up with more pledged delegates at the end of this thing, especially when his supporters skew way younger. Why on earth would you piss off potential Democratic voters for the next sixty years in order to appease the ones that will be dead in the next fifteen? And for a candidate with more baggage that performs worse against the potential GOP nominees in polling? Not going to happen.

I do think she's in an extremely favorable position though and I'd give Sanders maybe a 10-15% chance at taking this thing home. If he passes her in nationwide support not long after Super Tuesday though, I think he'll end up winning the nomination as people don't really leave Bernie's camp once they've decided on the guy...it's generally a constant upward trajectory in nationwide polling for Sanders and I don't see how Clinton can reverse that once he clears 50% and the bandwagon effect begins to take over. In fact, that's entirely the reason why her campaign decided to dump so much money in these early states because they were worried about a few early state victories launching him above Clinton nationally and destroying her campaign exactly like in 2008.

As for the why of all of this, there's still a ton of Americans that don't have the slightest clue who Bernie Sanders is and what his campaign is all about and that even includes a sizable chunk of the black electorate in South Carolina according to recent polling they did there. In other words, his rise in polls is basically because people don't know who he is yet...the question now is just where exactly is his ceiling.

Personally, I think Sanders is going to need to get out to about a 53-47 lead over Clinton nationally sometime towards the end of March/early April to end up taking this thing home. That would give him maybe a 55-45 lead in the later states on the calendar since they're more favorable to him and that would make up for a lot of the delegate gap he's going to have after Super Tuesday. There's no way Sanders wins this thing simply by passing Clinton in national polling on the way because he's going to have to make up a lot of ground that he gave up to Clinton in South Carolina/Super Tuesday states. She's going to put up massive victories in the Southern states.

It's all possible, but not likely. As much as I want Sanders to win, I do take an objective look at all of this and the math's going to be dicey.
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Old 02-22-2016, 05:35 PM   #635
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The lack of specificity and the implausibility of the Sanders campaign is starting to set it, I think. Because he is running to make a (really good) point, and because he's a shrewd and skilled politician, I can see how he caught fire amongst white liberals and college kids. Everyone wants a taste of that '08 again. But Bernie is no Barack, as evidenced in the comparatively lower turnout rates so far. Democrats can't win without enthusiastic minorities, and the kids do a really bad job turning out when they don't have Obama to vote for. Better to rely on labor union muscle. My sense is that reality is starting to settle in -- the Clinton campaign steadied the ship in Nevada, and will likely sail on to the inevitable. And even if she is indicted or drops dead of a stroke, Biden will swoop in.

I don't think the damn world's gone crazy. I think we have a section of the electorate on both sides that are still traumatized by endless war and the Great Recession and the devastation of 8 years of Bush/Cheney. That therapy is happening now in the primaries.

What Hillary needs is to find a reason for running beyond "I'll do a really good job." My sense is they've stumbled upon that with "I am not a single issue candidate."
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Old 02-22-2016, 05:48 PM   #636
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Surely Hillary's reason for running is 'it's my turn, now vote for me or else'. I'm not even being flip, that is it. It's her turn, she is the anointed, now get ready for more of the same.
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Old 02-22-2016, 05:58 PM   #637
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Surely Hillary's reason for running is 'it's my turn, now vote for me or else'. I'm not even being flip, that is it. It's her turn, she is the anointed, now get ready for more of the same.




Maybe. But I think she can say, with reason, "I have the best resume here. No one can match my experience, credentials, and grasp of policy."

Of course, that's a reason to run for the Senate, not so much the presidency, which is an entirely different beast altogether.
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Old 02-22-2016, 06:07 PM   #638
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Well, I would argue that being either a governor or a presidential cabinet member are probably the two most qualifying roles for POTUS.

I'll never understand why that's not a bigger deal versus the flurry of senators that routinely outperform the governors.
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Old 02-22-2016, 06:13 PM   #639
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I think Sec of State is, absolutely, a great resume item to have.

What I'm speaking towards is the fact that successful presidential campaigns lay out a single, simple vision of the future.

Morning in America. Change we can believe in. Make America Great Again.

I don't see that yet with Hillary. It's still a bit Tracey Flick to me. But that's better than "no more homework!"
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Old 02-22-2016, 06:33 PM   #640
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But Bernie is no Barack, as evidenced in the comparatively lower turnout rates so far. Democrats can't win without enthusiastic minorities, and the kids do a really bad job turning out when they don't have Obama to vote for.
Sanders has actually outpaced Obama in support from young voters.

Now are more young people showing up to the polls than in 2008 or are they a bigger share of the primary electorate this time around? I have no clue. But Sanders is getting a bigger share of the youth vote against Clinton than Obama did eight years ago.

I don't personally think the two are comparable. Obama was never on the far left although he did give lip service in the primaries to a lot of far left positions that he ultimately made no improvements on or failed to start on in the first place. We have a country moving leftward so it would only make sense that the youngest voters (always the most liberal of all) are also the most liberal voters we've ever had. Period.


Turnout is also lower because it's less competitive. Obama, even in the fall of 2007, looked like a contender that could defeat Hillary Clinton. Sander's odds are a lot worse and it's likely that a bunch of Democrats consider it a done deal that Clinton will be the nominee, thus they aren't even going to bother to show up to the polls. I honestly think it helps Sanders in the way that sparsely attended primaries led to tea party activists toppling Republican members of congress. The lower turnout allows the more devoted to have a say and it's exactly why the prognosticators are giving the upper hand to Sanders in the remaining caucus states.

I do think black turnout won't be as high as it was in 2008 - in both the primary and the general election. I just can't see it matching what it was eight years ago when there isn't a black person running in this primary and the stripping of the VRA has now disqualified hundreds of thousands from being able to vote because they lack the newly required IDs, etc. So, if the polls are expecting South Carolina's record 55% of primary voters being black to be matched, then they're definitely weighted wrongly.
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Old 02-22-2016, 06:45 PM   #641
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Marco Rubio just got a god damn gift wrap. John Kasich makes a public apology about something he said. Ted Cruz scapegoats a campaign member in attempts to clean himself of the "dirty liar" name. Basically a lesser form of apology.

It's like neither campaign is acknowledging that the leader is leading because he can get away with ANYTHING since he won't apologize. That's like, the fundamental of Trump's campaign. And here you have two dimwits doing exactly that, within the last hour or so.
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Old 02-22-2016, 07:20 PM   #642
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Sanders is screwed by the calendar. Oregon, Washington, Colorado would have given him some momentum if they popped up in Feb. But even with that there's not much that can be done.
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Old 02-22-2016, 09:20 PM   #643
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It's not the calendar
It's the voters or maybe his kook ideas
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Old 02-22-2016, 09:23 PM   #644
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One thing I really like about Hilary is that she seems to be the only one not painting a grim picture of America in its current state.


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Old 02-22-2016, 09:31 PM   #645
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Yes
She's running on Obama's record
GOP will tie him around her neck.
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