Cuban made his money off of selling a mediocre tech startup at the top of the dot-com bubble... I'm not sure if that was investment skill so much as luck, so he's always annoyed me a bit as a business icon.
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2016 US Presidential Election Thread IX
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Cuban made his money off of selling a mediocre tech startup at the top of the dot-com bubble... I'm not sure if that was investment skill so much as luck, so he's always annoyed me a bit as a business icon.
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Bluer White
New Yorker
I don't know man, Cuban is pretty convincing on Shark Tank 
Oregoropa
Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid
Trump is now leading Clinton in the Real Clear Politics average of recognized polls by 0.2 points. 5 weeks ago he was down 12 points.
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BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
That's a bit simplistic; he started that company prior to the dot-com bubble and then his follow up companies were during the dot-com, and I'm not sure I'd call broadcast.com a mediocre startup. It basically started the groundwork for large streaming formats.
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Let's wait until August to really care about polls. Trump is going to do well now when Clinton is still dealing with Sanders
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bobsaget77
Rock n' Roll Doggie
PhilsFan
Blue Crack Addict
The GOP really played the long game here. By telling everyone that Obama was a socialist, they desensitized everyone to the word and made it seem like a totally normal thing in America, and now Clinton's campaign has been wrecked before she even got to the general.
Bluer White
New Yorker
Can you elaborate on all this ?
PhilsFan
Blue Crack Addict
I was making a joke, the punchline being that Republicans are the boy who cried wolf for claiming a centrist like Obama is a socialist.
Bluer White
New Yorker
.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
I can understand not wanting to vote for Hillary Clinton, but what is it about Trump that makes you believe that he would be a good president of the United States?
Be specific.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
Not only will there be a consolidation, but Obama's approval numbers have been steadily climbing this entire year. She won't distance herself from his successful presidency the Gore did Clinton. The American people would vote overwhelmingly for a third Obama term, which is what she will bring.
Of course, Trump is a wild card. No one really knows what to do with him. So we'll see.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
average of polls
well that's useful.
well that's useful.
OP
OP
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
I posted a big rant about this very thing. Statistically it isn't an indicator, it's an indicator of indicators. It doesn't mean anything, especially because it has not one but two degrees of freedom (other/not sure). So when those poll numbers come up and they have Clump and Trinton tied at 43-43 and then another poll says 51-47, and you average them, you're basically making nonsense because one asked an entirely different question.
BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
Wait. Trump leads by a whopping .2, in an average of polls, 2 of which are right wing polls against someone who is still campaigning for the nom in her own party?
This is indeed a day to celebrate
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DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
stealing this
Oregoropa
Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid
Just two months ago many in the forum cited polling as a reason Trump was unelectable. Live by the sword die by the sword
RCP chooses polls it seems reputable to include. So may argue it includes left leaning and right leaning polls. Instead of citing one poll RCP does us all a service by grouping data sets.
Trump closing 12 points shows the GOP coalescing around the candidate. As argued we may see the same once Hillary secures the nomination this summer. Who would have known the Republicans would have had it sewn up in May with 17 candidates while the Dems have had 2 since October?
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RCP chooses polls it seems reputable to include. So may argue it includes left leaning and right leaning polls. Instead of citing one poll RCP does us all a service by grouping data sets.
Trump closing 12 points shows the GOP coalescing around the candidate. As argued we may see the same once Hillary secures the nomination this summer. Who would have known the Republicans would have had it sewn up in May with 17 candidates while the Dems have had 2 since October?
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Bluer White
New Yorker
Your points are well taken.
BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
It's all about the quality and context of the polls. What's happened in that timeline of closing 12 points? Trump has become the presumptive nominee. So logic would say; that 12 point close doesn't really mean that much. Now put that up against the fact Clinton isn't even technically the presumptive, if your guy is only .2 ahead with the deck in his favor, then you're actually kind of screwed once that deck is stacked more even and you throw in the electoral college.
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OP
OP
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
It's not about left leaning and right leaning bias. This is an issue of statistics, not bias. Each individual poll is a statistical estimate of the true mean. Grouping means together would have purpose, if each poll were done exactly the same way. But, they're not. So, when you have polls that allow for voting for Gary Johnson, or when you have an "undecided" option, you can't mix the polls. But RCP does. So, when one poll has Trump at 49% of the vote, because it doesn't include those "undecided" options, and then another does include those and had Trump at 41%, you can't just average them and say he's estimated to get 45% of the vote. It's not a proper indicator. That would be a distribution of non-homogeneous samples that's entirely bimodal, with no apparent significance of the mean.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
useful polling.
Bluer White
New Yorker
BigMacPhisto and Oregoropa are coming from opposite sides of the spectrum. And I think both are doing a service to the forum, without being dinks about it.
Together they represent a whole bunch of American voters.
Together they represent a whole bunch of American voters.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
Points well taken. And this leads to what is actual, real "media bias": they want a horse race. They want it to be as close as possible so you tune in every day to see who's up and who's down. Why? Ratings. That's what matters.
LN7's point about statistics is obviously sound, yet I can't help a moderate degree of trepidation. We've consistently written off Trump. Unelectable. Can't stay in the race. Won't get the nomination. Will fizzle out. Will implode. Will collapse.
And here we are.
I don't expect he can win, and the thought is genuinely horrifying, but two months ago I thought he couldn't become the Republican candidate and six months ago I thought he'd be done and dusted within a few weeks of the primaries beginning. So I'm not going to be comfortable until it's the Wednesday after the first Tuesday of November and Trump is not the president-elect.
And here we are.
I don't expect he can win, and the thought is genuinely horrifying, but two months ago I thought he couldn't become the Republican candidate and six months ago I thought he'd be done and dusted within a few weeks of the primaries beginning. So I'm not going to be comfortable until it's the Wednesday after the first Tuesday of November and Trump is not the president-elect.
BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
You'll be hard pressed to find folks that will agree with this wholeheartedly. One fits that description, the other has flat out said he's not here to win anything or anyone over.
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Moonlit_Angel
Blue Crack Addict
You've just summed up how I feel perfectly.
OP
OP
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
I suppose I wasn't really using that post to say Trump can't win. Though I don't think he can, due to the electoral map, which is more of a republican problem than a Trump problem. However, I suppose if there was anyone able to do something contradictory, it's Trump.
But yeah, I was just discrediting RCP aggregate polls. They're useful to tell trends, but they don't actually tell you who is ahead. So, to RCP's credit, that's actually what they try to show you. People just take it out of context.
Yeah, but look who you ended up with.
Vlad n U 2
Blue Crack Addict
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Tony Abbott got elected once based on one repetitive three word slogan, and as a result I won't be that surprised if Trump does.
Hey hey, give him credit: TWO repetitive three word slogans.
STOP DA BOATS
AXE DA TAX
DITCH DA WITCH
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