2016 US Presidential Election Pt. IV - Page 6 - U2 Feedback

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Old 12-24-2015, 04:49 PM   #76
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That's flight simulator stuff...im big league now.
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Old 12-24-2015, 04:52 PM   #77
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Donald hasn't even been elected and he's already singlehandedly saved Christmas.

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Old 12-24-2015, 04:53 PM   #78
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Not that im counting or anything, but the FB page "Fuck Donald TRUMP!" has many more Likes than the FB page "Fuck Ted Cruz666"

I wish people would get to liking that page
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Old 12-24-2015, 06:37 PM   #79
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You guys have clearly been hanging out with the wrong kinds of mannequins.
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Old 12-25-2015, 04:04 AM   #80
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A Trump Cruz ticket, which is never going to happen, but if it did...

You'd lose every independent voter, and even lose many moderate Republicans.

I don't doubt that the popular vote might come out fairly close, and that ticket would dominate the redder red states... but they would get slaughtered in the swing states.
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Old 12-25-2015, 10:18 AM   #81
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Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase View Post
A Trump Cruz ticket, which is never going to happen, but if it did...

You'd lose every independent voter, and even lose many moderate Republicans.

I don't doubt that the popular vote might come out fairly close, and that ticket would dominate the redder red states... but they would get slaughtered in the swing states.
I am registered Independent but lean moderate to left, this hypothetical ticket would lose me, as they obviously already have. However there are plenty of self-described Independents who are either conservative or libertarian and would love this type of ticket. So i think the Independent voter would be split, how the moderate republicans would vote is another issue.
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Old 12-25-2015, 10:19 AM   #82
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You guys have clearly been hanging out with the wrong kinds of mannequins.
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Old 12-26-2015, 06:23 PM   #83
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In Why Are They Still Running News?...

- Mike Huckabee has vowed to call it a day if he doesn't finish in the top three in Iowa. Unfortunately, that means he'll likely be around until Iowa.

- The next Republican debate will be broadcast on Fox Business on January 14th. The criteria to qualify for the main debate is that you're either A) in the top six nationally or B) in the top five in Iowa or New Hampshire.

This would mean:

Main Debate (6): Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Rubio, Trump

Undercard Debate (4): Fiorina, Huckabee, Kasich, Paul

Gilmore, Pataki and Santorum aren't even consistently polling at 1% nationally in order to qualify for the kiddie debate. Also, Rand Paul has vowed to not participate in the undercard debate and may well close up his campaign if he's relegated to that one.






Campaigns That Should Be Dead After Iowa If Voting Were Today (6): Fiorina, Gilmore, Huckabee, Pataki, Paul, Santorum

Campaigns That Should Be Dead After New Hampshire If Voting Were Today (2): Carson, Kasich


Christie would need to do exceptionally well in New Hampshire in order to keep going. New Hampshire stops Carson in his tracks after two underwhelming states because New Hampshire lacks the evangelical voters he needs (and now lacks in general). Kasich's eggs are all-in on New Hampshire with little to show for it, so he would bow out after that state as well if not sooner.

That leaves us pared down to Trump, Bush, Rubio and Cruz barring a killer New Hampshire performance from Christie. Everybody else is literally rearranging deck chairs at this point as their fates are already decided.

Rubio and Cruz can go very deep with their campaign funds and potential ceilings. Trump continues until his support is clearly low enough that it's not worth wasting his own dime and time to continue. Bush can go on until the money runs out, but that will be sooner rather than later as he'll need to have a high burn rate if he actually wants to win. I guess you could list Super Tuesday as the cash-in date on Bush's death clock.
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Old 12-26-2015, 06:27 PM   #84
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I'd say the polling got things very wrong 4 years ago. Remember when many polls had Romney beating Obama in 2012? Maybe they've gotten better since then, not sure on that.
Romney was only even close nationally after the first debate and that was with polls with a much heavier R-lean than the rest of the year. Obama handily led him in any polls that weren't heavily skewed to have far too many Republicans in the sample. Final results showed that the polls favored Romney by 1% more than he actually received. Close enough?

Statewide polling was pretty accurate throughout. Nate Silver managed to get all 50 states right using his model and Ohio never left the Obama camp for the duration...
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Old 12-26-2015, 06:30 PM   #85
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Really?! Answer me one question, by what communication are most polls being conducted today?
Fair enough, but they've still been generally on target lately and only getting more accurate as Nate Silver would tell you. I certainly agree that they need to do something better than calling landlines though...

Only times polls really drop the ball lately are when turnout is super low. These random elections or off-off-year elections often lead to Republicans winning and basically nobody voting....polling for 2014's midterms would have been more accurate had they known that nationwide turnout would only be about 40%, but there's no way yet to determine that accurately. Presidential years are a lot easier since it always hovers around 60% and they can nail the demographic turnout fairly easily.
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Old 12-26-2015, 06:36 PM   #86
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None of this will go to Trump or Cruz. Not a single endorsement, not a single penny.
This is the one part in your assessment where you are dead wrong. Ted Cruz has only been behind Bush in raising money and has far more cash on hand than anybody else in the race now that Bush's Super PAC has been throwing money out the window in order to keep his campaign afloat. Weird as it seems, Cruz does have a lot of big donors behind him.

He also has by far the best ground game out there where Rubio has virtually none and all of Christie's eggs are in the New Hampshire basket at the moment. Cruz is visiting dozens of counties in Iowa in the New Year and has a solid presence in Super Tuesday states, particularly in the South. He also has hundreds of top-name pastors in Iowa and Super Tuesday states that have agreed to stagger their endorsements throughout the primary season in order to continually give the guy a boost. Sad as it is, he's the candidate for the evangelicals.

Rubio has hardly any on-the-ground staffers and has made hardly any public appearances compared to the other candidates. It may come back to bite him. Really starting to look like Cruz's race to lose once Trump crumbles (and it will likely happen in Iowa where he lacks volunteers and I doubt people will actually brave the weather to caucus for him).
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Old 12-26-2015, 07:53 PM   #87
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Well there.
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Old 12-26-2015, 08:31 PM   #88
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Cruz would be a GOP disaster. Everyone but the true believers know it's all an act and he's a pompous jackass only out for himself. You'd see a lot of defections to HRC because she's not that scary to the Chamber of Commerce crowd.
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Old 12-26-2015, 09:04 PM   #89
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Cruz is already a GOP disaster as a senator.
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Old 12-27-2015, 04:26 AM   #90
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To me, the existence of conservative party itself is a huge disaster to humans.


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