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Old 02-02-2016, 05:20 PM   #721
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If Iowa was a real election Trump may have met the polling estimates and came in first


Cruz admits his people said Carson was quitting to take his supporters, blames CNN.
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Old 02-02-2016, 05:33 PM   #722
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I am still going with the idea that Hillary's vulnerabilities could help the GOP win this....therefore im hoping whatever the GOP nominates is the least despicable pile of shit of the bunch. Currently i have to say that is TRUMP! since the non-despicable bunch (Jeb! Kasich, Christie, or Paul) really don't have much of a chance.


you are looking at this correctly

Cruz is most dangerous if elected,
Rubio is W light, we don't need that shit again,
Trump is a throw of the dice, are you feeling lucky??
Jeb may be the best qualified and with the best temperament, but he has less than no shot at all,
all the rest, not worth even evaluating

Sanders nomination damn near puts any GOP nominee in, scary thought.
Hillary had a cake walk, but fucked it up. She is most beatable by Trump and next perhaps Rubio, and if she further self destructs it is possible Cruz could beat her,
If Joe Biden somehow gets the nomination, lets say Hillary has a health issue and bows out. He is not a lock. Because there is genuine Obama fatigue, and a third term is hard to win. Obama does not have Reagan's appeal and only Cruz would be about as bad of a nominee as Michael Dukakis
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Old 02-02-2016, 05:42 PM   #723
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Sanders does run a difficult card trying to win over the black south, I imagine.
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Old 02-02-2016, 05:52 PM   #724
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Iowa
NH
Vermont
that's it. He won't win anyplace else, never had a chance.
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Old 02-02-2016, 05:57 PM   #725
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It's going to be Rubio vs Clinton. A weird reversal of 2008.

We'll see just how talented Marco really is. My guess is that he is no Barack Obama.

However.

Elections are always about the future. He is younger. Big advantage. She is also smarter and far more experienced than he is. In the end, she is going to be running for Obama's third term. She has made that decision and will be using that as the primaries go south as a way to keep black voters engaged. I just don't see them going Sanders. I could be wrong.

In the end, my guess is that HRC's appeal with the rust belt Democrats will give her a fairly easy electoral victory.

The past is a problem, though. As I listened to the news this morning, it struck me that I've known her since I was in junior high. My first introduction was the 60 Minutes piece where they talked about Gennifer Flowers. We are all weary of those two.

But. She has experience and competency and she isn't a bad candidate. She has no magic, but she has resolve and grit and you know she knows her shit.

Who knows; we'll see.
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Old 02-02-2016, 05:59 PM   #726
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Sanders does run a difficult card trying to win over the black south, I imagine.

If he had taken Iowa clean and then NH he would have gotten a better chance at getting some momentum.


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Old 02-02-2016, 06:15 PM   #727
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Iowa
NH
Vermont
that's it. He won't win anyplace else, never had a chance.

It's all a game of momentum. If he cleanly wins New Hampshire, it's a different picture. If it's tight, like Iowa, I might agree. Much like Obama defeating Clinton, though... when you expose her belly and show she can be defeated, she will be defeated.
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Old 02-02-2016, 07:28 PM   #728
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Clinton, when you expose her belly .
Nobody wants to see that.
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Old 02-02-2016, 07:36 PM   #729
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If he had taken Iowa clean and then NH he would have gotten a better chance at getting some momentum.


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If only because the media would have gone crazy with a narrative of a Clinton explosion, yes. What a difference a nearly-meaningless few percentage points can make.


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Old 02-02-2016, 07:37 PM   #730
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Nobody wants to see that.

We need a president with abs.
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Old 02-02-2016, 08:28 PM   #731
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I'm just going to answer some of these as best I can, though I know others have answered some, and I may be repeating information.

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Originally Posted by cobl04 View Post

- I feel like this campaign has been going for fucking ever. Why the FUCK is an election that won't take place until November starting like 18+ months out. What the fuck. (And side Q, how the fuck can people expect Obama to get shit done/be good when this fucking circus is going on.)
It starts earlier and earlier all the time. One major reason for this is the 24-hour news cycle, and its connection to getting names and faces out there.

If Obama were eligible to run again, it would absolutely impact his efficiency as president.

He's not, so this has no impact on him, and it seems like he's getting more done now than ever.
- Are the Democrats in a better place than the Republicans? (kinda hard question to answer given everyone will be biased.) Like the Republican race is 10000000x more interesting and entertaining than the Democratic race, but is that a good thing for the Dems? That it's between two of them instead of five or seven or ten like the GOP?

This doesn't really have a good answer, as it's opinion based.

- What is the difference between the last 12 months and today? Why was today so special?

This has been answered pretty sufficiently, but yeah, basically, all of the year before yesterday was conjecture. Today was the first piece of REAL impact voting.

- On that note, why is it that your system only allows two terms of government? If one president does a real fucking good job (not saying that's Obama, just being hypothetical) wouldn't it suck to replace him/her with someone less good because you have to?

Just look at our current congress to understand why term limitations are meaningful.

And, finally,

- What happens from now until election day?[/QUOTE]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kieran McConville View Post
Oh, cobl4, I just realised I can answer another of your questions, and a non american to boot. Two term limit - happened because of Roosevelt. He was in office for a whopping 13 years, truncated by ill health and death. His Democratic coalition controlled government for a good deal longer. I guess there was a desire to not lock in that precedent, or whatever (although what they never tell you is, it's consecutive terms. If he was silly enough, Bill Clinton could legally run for president now.)
Thank you, Teddy Roosevelt, for trying.

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Originally Posted by KhanadaRhodes View Post

the term limits you're talking about is just presidential. there's term limits on other government positions too but yeah. basically fdr got elected FOUR TIMES and after he died in office, they passed legislation to enact term limits, i think it goes back to washington, our first president. he served two terms and didn't run for a third so it's very important™. but i'd rather have sanders anyway, and term limits helped ensure people like reagan and dubya got out so it's not always a bad thing.
Jefferson was more vocal than Washington about term limits, but the precedent was set by Washington.
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Old 02-02-2016, 08:58 PM   #732
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Originally Posted by deep View Post
you are looking at this correctly

Cruz is most dangerous if elected,
Rubio is W light, we don't need that shit again,
Trump is a throw of the dice, are you feeling lucky??
Jeb may be the best qualified and with the best temperament, but he has less than no shot at all,
all the rest, not worth even evaluating

Sanders nomination damn near puts any GOP nominee in, scary thought.
Hillary had a cake walk, but fucked it up. She is most beatable by Trump and next perhaps Rubio, and if she further self destructs it is possible Cruz could beat her,
If Joe Biden somehow gets the nomination, lets say Hillary has a health issue and bows out. He is not a lock. Because there is genuine Obama fatigue, and a third term is hard to win. Obama does not have Reagan's appeal and only Cruz would be about as bad of a nominee as Michael Dukakis
Trump is not a throw of the dice. He's an unmitigated disaster. He's gotten this far and still hasn't had one single fucking idea.

Literally. Nothing.

Oh he's going to build a wall and make Mexico pay for it. How, you ask? Cause he wrote Art Of The Deal! That's how!

We're going to stop Muslims from entering the country until we can figure this out. Okay. Figure what out? And who? The fuck are you talking about?

That he has even stayed in this long without issuing a single solitary fucking idea on what he'd actually do and how he'd do it just speaks to the sheer stupidity of large portions of the electorate.
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Old 02-02-2016, 10:50 PM   #733
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He did release a fairly detail tax plan that is very favorable to earners under 25k and families under 50k. They basically pay zero federal income tax.

There is frustration even amongst his supporters over lack of detail.

But there is one example of Trump policy.


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Old 02-02-2016, 11:08 PM   #734
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oregoropa View Post
He did release a fairly detail tax plan that is very favorable to earners under 25k and families under 50k. They basically pay zero federal income tax.

There is frustration even amongst his supporters over lack of detail.

But there is one example of Trump policy.


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No, his plan was not detailed, it was generalities that wouldn't account for the big promises that made you vote for him. It wouldn't pay for the massive deportation, the wall(he's not getting Mexico to pay for it don't be that naive), or the tracking of Muslims. Let alone his health plan

But when you feed a crowd that doesn't care about facts, math means nothing.

So why are YOU supporting him? You're so much smarter than all this BS. Besides being anti-establishment does he appeal to you on any logical level?


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Old 02-03-2016, 12:51 AM   #735
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Not for nothing, but the idea that in the year 2016 we’re deciding who gets to run for the most powerful position in the western world by having people stand in groups in a gym, and/or folded slips of paper is fucking frightening.
Frightening? I think people getting in a room together and talking face to face before they vote is a very positive thing in 2016. I'd be far more frightened if this all took place on people's I-phones without them ever leaving their basement or bedroom.
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