2016 US Presidential Election Pt. IV - Page 43 - U2 Feedback

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Old 02-01-2016, 10:55 PM   #631
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No way. Her relationship with Wall Street is of concern, but you also have to realize she represents an end of an era. The end of that generation, and the end(at least current) of the big political families. Once the boomer generation fizzles the right, as we know it, will die.
The whole problem I have is looking at what she represents rather than what she is.
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Old 02-01-2016, 11:00 PM   #632
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Rubio was averaging about 15% behind Trump in polls.

Polls = garbage
In generally, I'm a big polling nut, but when it comes to these election ones, they drive me bat-shit insane, because they break all of the rules and make people distrust polling.

That being said, I'm supremely happy right now.
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Old 02-01-2016, 11:08 PM   #633
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Trump had no ground game. Tough lesson to learn. Everybody below Carson seemed to break to Rubio as an establishment consensus.

Iowa will be Cruz's best state for a stretch. I still think Trump carries NH (barring any Deanish moments this week). I think Rubio will gain momentum once Kasich and Christie drop after NH. South Carolina is the real Battle Royale for the GOP.
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Old 02-01-2016, 11:08 PM   #634
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Polls are dead.

Until they find a legitimate way to poll online it will remain dead.


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Old 02-01-2016, 11:09 PM   #635
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There were a ton of undecideds still and Rubio was surging going into today (and polls rarely capture the last few days of movement before an election). So, no, the Rubio results aren't unexpected in the slightest, nor is Cruz getting a slight boost from evangelicals as that's what most prognosticators were expecting.

It's going to end up being a tie, basically, between Sanders and Clinton...one could very well win the statewide delegates and lose the meaningless "percentage" race...Sanders really needs the W here though to get a bunch of momentum in future states.
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Old 02-01-2016, 11:10 PM   #636
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Well one bubble has been burst.


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Old 02-01-2016, 11:11 PM   #637
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Trump had no ground game. Tough lesson to learn. Everybody below Carson seemed to break to Rubio as an establishment consensus.
Should be noted that Trump dropped about four percentage points in entrance polling after not debating and plenty of interviewed voters said they changed their minds because of that. Might have won this thing otherwise.

I see this race now being Rubio's to lose. The establishment will ignore the deflating Trump and target Cruz like crazy while Rubio racks up victories in states in the North East, etc.
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Old 02-01-2016, 11:13 PM   #638
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I see next to no chance of Sanders defeating Clinton in the vote percentages, but winning Iowa is all about those state delegates or precinct victories or whatever the hell. Sanders trails by only four with 92% of the results in...going to continue to be a nail biter unless Clinton makes it back into double digits soon.

Kind of funny because it was thought that Sanders' support would be way too intensive in college areas, for example, and that Clinton would cream him in the rest of the state. End result is that Sanders far exceeded his polling and actually was the one with broader support across the state as a whole.
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Old 02-01-2016, 11:17 PM   #639
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Clinton now up by 11 with 94% of the precincts in. Going to be very tough for Sanders to catch her now.

Update: Sanders now down by 9 with 94% in.



Huckabee and O'Malley have quit. Anybody else?
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Old 02-01-2016, 11:19 PM   #640
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Huckabee will end campaign
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Old 02-01-2016, 11:23 PM   #641
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Old 02-01-2016, 11:26 PM   #642
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The GOP will be knocking on Jeb and Christie's doors in the morning
Both have thrown all their remaining eggs into the New Hampshire bucket. They'll drop out after that one.

I think Rubio stands a good shot at winning New Hampshire now. That would probably lead Trump to exit as well.




Sanders trailing by 11 with 95% in.
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Old 02-01-2016, 11:32 PM   #643
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Where has the most up-to-date figures? I'm following the Guardian at the moment and they have Sanders just .2% behind Clinton. Wow.



Iowa Is The Hardest State To Poll | FiveThirtyEight
It's 50.1-49.3 for Clinton now. Effectively a tie, but I guess those 80 basis points will make a significant difference in how the media covers it.
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Old 02-01-2016, 11:41 PM   #644
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Sanders now just trailing by three statewide delegates...getting interesting. Sanders trailing the overall vote by only .2%.

No surprise that Clinton wanted to run out and give essentially a victory speech before all the results were in...won't matter much if Sanders gets declared victor and then gets to do his speech to a massive, roaring crowd.
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Old 02-02-2016, 12:02 AM   #645
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95%. Sanders still down by three delegates.

Should be noted that we've seen three instances of Clinton winning coin tosses for the extra delegate in precincts that were basically tied. Not to mention that O'Malley received 8 delegates this evening.
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