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Old 12-22-2015, 09:06 AM   #46
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You all are getting your wish, because the Republican party is fracturing as we speak. It is too late for anybody except Trump or Cruz in the Presidential Primary.
Soooooooo that's really not the case.

2008. Clinton was a lock to win the nomination at this point.

Oops.

2004. Kerry was in a distant third.

Oopsie dasies.

Nothing matters till votes are cast. These polls aren't meaningless, but they can fall apart in an instant.


In all likelihood Trump has peaked. His poll numbers will likely fluctuate up and down a point or two, but he's unlikely to make any huge gains from here. We're not talking about a mandate here. He's not pulling in 50-60%.

Just look at when Carson faltered. Almost all of his support went to Cruz. Few if any went to Trump. Cruz himself has a ceiling, one that he's quite close to.

As the primaries take place and more of the hangerons drop off due to embarrassing numbers, all of that support will fall behind someone. That someone will not be Donald Trump.

Maybe he shouldn't have alienated everyone other than the dipshit morons who are his base?

Oops again.

Add in that most voters don't give a turkey until the primaries begin and the ingredients for an embarrassing fall for Trump as the party rallies behind the last non Trump/Cruz candidate left standing.

Everyone knows this. That's why nobody is dropping out. They're going to hang on as long as possible because no sane person believes Trump will grow his support beyond where he currently stands.
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Old 12-22-2015, 12:38 PM   #47
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Newt Gingrich was leading the republican polls this time of year last election cycle.
We still have a long ways to go...
It's certainly not a 2 horse race.


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Old 12-22-2015, 02:20 PM   #48
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There will be no establishment candidate in the running. Over 60% of the GOP wants a Cruz-Trump-Carson

I'm willing to stake my position and say it's either Trump or Cruz. The political is too strong against Rubio Bush Christie Kasich

Newt didn't have dominating lead he was just the next anti Romney contestant. There weren't 2 Howard Dean figures out polling the field in 2004. It's a different dynamic this time around. All respect to Bob, you have to see it through conservative eyes to understand what the groundswell of antipathy is truly like towards establishment. Yes we still have time to go I just don't see any other candidate penetrating the outsider block.


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Old 12-22-2015, 02:46 PM   #49
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There will be no establishment candidate in the running. Over 60% of the GOP wants a Cruz-Trump-Carson

Over 60%, eh?

Why would they want 3 of the most unelectable candidates in recent history?

Trump represents the lowest common denominator of your party and this country.

Carson has proved that he can't think for himself, regardless of that wasted education.

And Cruz? Really?

Plus none of these guys would be able to debate any of the Democratic candidates. These guys might appeal to portions of the far right, but the far right is a very small portion of this country, they'd be embarrassments on the national stage.


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Old 12-22-2015, 03:32 PM   #50
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There will be no establishment candidate in the running. Over 60% of the GOP wants a Cruz-Trump-Carson

I'm willing to stake my position and say it's either Trump or Cruz. The political is too strong against Rubio Bush Christie Kasich

Newt didn't have dominating lead he was just the next anti Romney contestant. There weren't 2 Howard Dean figures out polling the field in 2004. It's a different dynamic this time around. All respect to Bob, you have to see it through conservative eyes to understand what the groundswell of antipathy is truly like towards establishment. Yes we still have time to go I just don't see any other candidate penetrating the outsider block.


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Yea, sure.

Newt didn't have a dominating lead because the idiot side of the GOP was split between Newt and Ass Juice.

Romney just waited on the side as those two took each other out and then surged ahead.

Trump's base is made up mostly by uneducated whites; who also happen to be the group of GOP voters who have the lowest turn out rate.

After the first few primaries a clear contender will come true, and Trump will flame out just like every other similarly douchey candidate backed by the worst of the worst elements of the GOP before him has.
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Old 12-22-2015, 04:17 PM   #51
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Let's make a symbolic wager then and revisit it when one side or another is confirmed.

I say Trump or Cruz will be the nominee

You are betting 'No' on that.

Fair enough. We shall see what happens.
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Old 12-22-2015, 04:30 PM   #52
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Yea I'm gonna talk the field on that one
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Old 12-22-2015, 04:41 PM   #53
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Candidate casino. You have 100 dollars in chips. spread them out on betting on the GOP nominee.

Trump $45
Cruz $35
Rubio $10
Christie $5

$5 on a big ass margarita
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Old 12-22-2015, 05:14 PM   #54
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$60 Rubio
$40 Christie
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Old 12-22-2015, 05:20 PM   #55
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I find it interesting that people still put so much stock in polling. Polling is dead. The reason Trump is polling so well is that his demographic coincides with the demographic that still answers polls. Plain and simple. It has nothing to do with 60% of the GOP as a whole like Trump. Trump's ego and his supporters will be crushed once actual votes start coming in. And then they'll cry voter tampering...


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Old 12-22-2015, 08:39 PM   #56
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$60 Rubio
$40 Christie
That's a ballsy prediction if there ever was one. In my opinion, Rubio might very well be dead in the water thanks to his immigration bill being his achilles hill. If that's the case, it's hard to envision Trump or Cruz not being the nominee.

Christie's clearly fourth in the pecking order and hoping to be in a three-way by winning New Hampshire or coming close. It's an actual chance.

As I said earlier, Bush is 100% toast. He now has an unfavorable rating among party voters and if he is losing traction already what could possibly make him gain favorability and support as this goes on? He doesn't excite anyone.


I read FiveThirtyEight and have followed the election patterns in the primaries for years like a lot of you and I understand exactly why Trump has a bunch of hurdles that he's unlikely to clear. But the way it stands, Iowa is rapidly approaching and Trump is shooting up to 40% nationwide...it's not inconceivable that this could actually hold, and if it does, he's a hair from being able to claim a majority of the delegates from Iowa onward.

I'll go with Cruz 50%, Trump 30%, Rubio 20% at this point.
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Old 12-22-2015, 08:44 PM   #57
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I find it interesting that people still put so much stock in polling. Polling is dead. The reason Trump is polling so well is that his demographic coincides with the demographic that still answers polls. Plain and simple. It has nothing to do with 60% of the GOP as a whole like Trump. Trump's ego and his supporters will be crushed once actual votes start coming in. And then they'll cry voter tampering...
Polling as a science only has gotten more accurate as the years went on, particularly in Presidential election years as the analysts can peg the voter turnout of various demographics to a T.

I do agree though that Trump is in no man's land. People could very well just be telling pollsters they support Trump in order to keep him at the top for the entertainment value or his actual hold on voters could be substantially weak. I also still can't fathom people wasting a day in a school gymnasium in Iowa or whatever to support Donald friggin' Trump.
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Old 12-22-2015, 08:54 PM   #58
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That's a ballsy prediction if there ever was one. In my opinion, Rubio might very well be dead in the water thanks to his immigration bill being his achilles hill. If that's the case, it's hard to envision Trump or Cruz not being the nominee.

Christie's clearly fourth in the pecking order and hoping to be in a three-way by winning New Hampshire or coming close. It's an actual chance.

As I said earlier, Bush is 100% toast. He now has an unfavorable rating among party voters and if he is losing traction already what could possibly make him gain favorability and support as this goes on? He doesn't excite anyone.


I read FiveThirtyEight and have followed the election patterns in the primaries for years like a lot of you and I understand exactly why Trump has a bunch of hurdles that he's unlikely to clear. But the way it stands, Iowa is rapidly approaching and Trump is shooting up to 40% nationwide...it's not inconceivable that this could actually hold, and if it does, he's a hair from being able to claim a majority of the delegates from Iowa onward.
Iowa is incredibly overrated. Ass Juice won Iowa. Huckabee dominated Iowa.

I think everyone is in agreement that Jeb! is sunk. The only question I have is whether he waits until after he gets trounced in the primaries to bow out or if he saves face and leaves sooner.

If I were him I'd bow out now and spend the next three years rebuilding my profile for a potential run against Hillary in 2020. He's absolutely sunk in 2016 and has to know it. Doing the right thing and getting out early will earn him brownie points with the establishment.

That opens up a shit ton of establishment money and a shit ton of endorsements from congress and from governors that all went early to Jeb!. He STILL has the most endorsements of anyone, even though he's getting trounced.

None of this will go to Trump or Cruz. Not a single endorsement, not a single penny.

That leaves Rubio and Christie left to divide it up amongst themselves. Rubio has a lead in polling, money and endorsements so I put him first. If Christie can win New Hampshire things may swing dramatically in his favor.

He's middle right, a Republican governor of a Blue state, and he has some of that "I'll say anything" panache that has driven Trump, but without the overt douchebaggery.
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Old 12-22-2015, 09:03 PM   #59
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Polling as a science only has gotten more accurate as the years went on, particularly in Presidential election years as the analysts can peg the voter turnout of various demographics to a T.
...and Trump's biggest area of support is also the group least likely to turn out to vote.
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Old 12-22-2015, 11:19 PM   #60
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Will a chick being president enrage the Tea Party crowd as much as a colored man being president did? Her having the Clinton last name won't help her any, but without the Tea Party rage, Bush might have a decent shot in 2020.


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