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Old 01-29-2016, 11:53 AM   #526
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Originally Posted by corianderstem View Post

But too bad "telling it like it is" for Trump means being a xenophobic, misogynistic asshole.
I hate to hear Donald talk not only because of the nonsense but also because it feels like he is really behaving like businessman, saying whatever to satisfy the audience despite the fact that he's not really believing in whatever he's saying
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Old 01-29-2016, 02:48 PM   #527
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Yes, but "regular" politicians often do the same thing.
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Old 01-29-2016, 03:10 PM   #528
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I think that's the scariest part; is that his followers think that's how "it is"; that there's only a few good Mexicans, we can register Muslims, and that sexual assault in the military is just expected. He has the lowest scores in fact checking, yet they still believe that's just how it is. If there are enough votes to make him president, then God help this country.


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Old 01-29-2016, 03:47 PM   #529
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- Rubio has been given so many chances and has never managed to pull it off and it's still hard to fathom how he can win the nomination given the immigration bill he co-authored. Still, there's clearly a surge working for him in Iowa, and if that continues, he'll come out of that state with a healthy second or third place finish and will be extremely well positioned as the establishment candidate, even if his national support is going nowhere.

- Fiorina, Gilmore, Huckabee and Santorum will all drop out after Iowa. That should surprise absolutely nobody as they were the JV debaters last night.

- Carson should be done after Iowa. These people don't get that you only really have one surge in modern politics...once you go into freefall, your campaign is over. Fiorina climbed and fell, so did Bush. The media scrutiny leads the voters to take a good look at a leading (or second place) candidacy. Once the floor drops out from under you, it's all over. A poor result in Iowa (which is inevitable) will stop the Carson campaign from collecting anymore money and he'll have to close up shop for what's been the most head-scratching campaign I've ever witnessed.

- Rand Paul could drop out as early as Iowa, but he might get a bit of a boost going into caucus day (just like his dad). Regardless, his lack of funds or traction will likely mean an end to his campaign shortly after New Hampshire as I don't feel he's in it to necessarily make a point, rather he was in it to win it and isn't going to stick around if the voters have had their say and it's unlikely.

- Christie is done after New Hampshire. There's not enough time for him to turn it around there and he doesn't have a prayer in the less favorable southern states coming up on the calendar (states that will keep Cruz's candidacy alive, even if the media will try to make it look like Rubio vs. Trump from here on out if Cruz underwhelms in the first couple states).

- Kasich is also done after New Hampshire. He could potentially even win the state, but it's not going to matter. Conservatives aren't going to open up their coffers to the guy and winning that state won't help him nationally.

- Bush is a wild card, but he should really call it a day after New Hampshire, leaving the Super PAC to either attack Trump or the Democratic nominee. No point in embarrassing himself further in the less favorable states coming up on the calendar.



My guess is that the field will be pared down to Trump, Rubio and Cruz after New Hampshire. If the Trump campaign is really just a bunch of hot air and nobody turns out for the guy, it will be just Rubio and Cruz after New Hampshire. Trump mostly needs to win Iowa in order to keep momentum going, otherwise everything could fall apart soon. Cruz needs to win Iowa in order to cement his status as the anti-Trump candidate, bolster his national standing, and then take huge advantage of his Super Tuesday ground game. Rubio must to have a very, very good Iowa result in order to stay in the mix. A fairly disappointing final percentage out of Iowa will turn this into a Trump vs. Cruz thing real fast.

Basically, of the three people that can actually win the nomination, I think Rubio has the most to lose this Monday. A poor showing will turn this into a two-horse race fairly quickly as Rubio doesn't have much traction in New Hampshire nor would you expect him to do well in the South. I think Trump and Cruz can both survive a loss for very different reasons, but they still need a respectable number next to their name.
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Old 01-29-2016, 03:53 PM   #530
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My predictions for Iowa and New Hampshire.
Iowa:
1st - Trump
2nd - Rubio
3rd - Cruz
4th - Paul
5th - Carson

NH
1st - Trump
2nd - Rubio
3rd - Kasich
4th - Cruz
5th - Christie


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Old 01-29-2016, 03:54 PM   #531
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As far as the Democrats are concerned, Sanders doesn't necessarily have to win Iowa, believe it or not. Yesterday's national poll has him trailing Clinton by only 12 points, so I could foresee the rest of the nation catching up in time. In other words, if Sanders starts regularly crossing the 50% mark in polls by Super Tuesday, it could very well be enough momentum to make up for trailing Clinton by delegates in the early states.

Of course, the path is so much easier with an Iowa victory. The momentum, the media coverage, the donations, the supporters in other states being excited...you can easily see why the Clinton campaign has now decided to spend half their money attacking the guy and why sources in her campaign are saying about 80% of that cash is being thrown into Iowa. If Sanders wins that state, there's no telling what it can do for him in the rest of the country and suddenly finishing close or even winning in South Carolina is on the table.
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Old 01-29-2016, 04:00 PM   #532
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mack_Again View Post
I hate to hear Donald talk not only because of the nonsense but also because it feels like he is really behaving like businessman, saying whatever to satisfy the audience despite the fact that he's not really believing in whatever he's saying

This is the part that makes me love it though. Not actually... but I get a kick out of the fact that he attracts so many dumb, racist, xenophobic assholes... yet it's so clear that he doesn't believe a word they say.

True story, Donald Trump had formal training on population control of dumb rednecks. He was on WWE as a main face character opposing Vince McMahon. He knows how to plant seeds and he knows how to make them grow. Even in his tone and rhetoric though, he's clearly bullshitting it.

But all of his supporters... to me they're like all of the supporters who think WWE is real.
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Old 01-29-2016, 04:03 PM   #533
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Iowa:

1st - Cruz (that Evangelical support will boost him back above Trump, especially because I think a lot of Trump's support is hot air)

2nd - Trump

3rd - Rubio



New Hampshire:

1. Rubio

2. Trump

3. Kasich

4. Cruz



My guess is that Trump begins his downfall in Iowa once it's realized that a lot of people have been telling pollsters they support Trump just for the shits & giggles.

Rubio sees enough of an Iowa surge that people in New Hampshire decide to back him as he can actually win whereas Kasich can not. I'm seeing a deflated Trump narrowly defeating Kasich in the low teens with Cruz not too far behind.




As far as the Democrats go, I'm a firm believer in science and the polling is telling me that Sanders is going to come up short in Iowa. The polls from the last three days have him down by 8, 5 and 3 points. I also think it's way too close a race for him to actually win a majority of Iowa's delegates as his support will be more in the urban areas.

I don't think this is the end for Sanders though and to narrowly lose to a Clinton that's been on a national slide and spent 40% of her money to barely defeat you is hardly something to consider a major defeat. Still likely going to be a huge defeat for Clinton in New Hampshire that could lead to a loss in Nevada (he's currently outspending her there in ads by a 4-1 margin) and a national groundswell that could pull Sanders ahead by Super Tuesday.

Also, O'Malley may very well drop out on caucus day and tell his supporters to go for Sanders. The small bit of data we do have shows that his supporters already prefer Bernie by a 2-1 margin, so that could close the gap a bit on Monday. O'Malley averages 5 percent in the most recent polls, so a 2-1 split for Bernie would gain him about an extra percentage point on Clinton while having nearly all of those people flock to Sanders' camp would make it a neck-and-neck race.

Turnout is everything on Monday.
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Old 01-29-2016, 04:13 PM   #534
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Iowa doesn't matter.

It has never mattered.

New Hampshire doesnt really matter either. Bernie (and I really like him) is toast after NH.

People make comparisons to Obama, but they're not even close. Obama was establishment, and Bernie is not.

As other have said, America is not going to elect a socialist.
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Old 01-29-2016, 05:01 PM   #535
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I'm stating to think there's a better than average chance Hillary gets indicted.
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Old 01-29-2016, 05:03 PM   #536
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobsaget77 View Post
My predictions for Iowa and New Hampshire.
Iowa:
1st - Trump
2nd - Rubio
3rd - Cruz
4th - Paul
5th - Carson

NH
1st - Trump
2nd - Rubio
3rd - Kasich
4th - Cruz
5th - Christie


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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigMacPhisto View Post
Iowa:

1st - Cruz (that Evangelical support will boost him back above Trump, especially because I think a lot of Trump's support is hot air)

2nd - Trump

3rd - Rubio



New Hampshire:

1. Rubio

2. Trump

3. Kasich

4. Cruz



My guess is that Trump begins his downfall in Iowa once it's realized that a lot of people have been telling pollsters they support Trump just for the shits & giggles.

Rubio sees enough of an Iowa surge that people in New Hampshire decide to back him as he can actually win whereas Kasich can not. I'm seeing a deflated Trump narrowly defeating Kasich in the low teens with Cruz not too far behind.




As far as the Democrats go, I'm a firm believer in science and the polling is telling me that Sanders is going to come up short in Iowa. The polls from the last three days have him down by 8, 5 and 3 points. I also think it's way too close a race for him to actually win a majority of Iowa's delegates as his support will be more in the urban areas.

I don't think this is the end for Sanders though and to narrowly lose to a Clinton that's been on a national slide and spent 40% of her money to barely defeat you is hardly something to consider a major defeat. Still likely going to be a huge defeat for Clinton in New Hampshire that could lead to a loss in Nevada (he's currently outspending her there in ads by a 4-1 margin) and a national groundswell that could pull Sanders ahead by Super Tuesday.

Also, O'Malley may very well drop out on caucus day and tell his supporters to go for Sanders. The small bit of data we do have shows that his supporters already prefer Bernie by a 2-1 margin, so that could close the gap a bit on Monday. O'Malley averages 5 percent in the most recent polls, so a 2-1 split for Bernie would gain him about an extra percentage point on Clinton while having nearly all of those people flock to Sanders' camp would make it a neck-and-neck race.

Turnout is everything on Monday.
i'll give you both credit for making actual predictions instead of 'better than expected' or 'underwhelming' which is up to interpretation.

my predictions, NH - Trump wins, second, not sure
Iowa, Trump wins, Cruz 2nd. not real confident about this, Cruz could win, in that case I think Trump will be within 1-2 % behind.

and all campaigns will be spinning like crazy afterwards, but at least 2-3 will drop out soon after.
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Old 01-29-2016, 05:12 PM   #537
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase View Post
I'm stating to think there's a better than average chance Hillary gets indicted.
may not, but emails is no longer crying wolf like Benghazi

she will be weakened, which gives a non politician like Trump much better chances, a shift of blue collar, working class democrats could put him over in a those few states he needs to win electoral college vote

if Hillary wins, the GOP House will hold expansive investigations, she needs to hope for the Dems to get the Senate,
and with her weakened, she may not be able to accomplish that.

So if she wins, she will need a December surprise from Obama, one of those pardons, like Ford gave Nixon, lets just close the books on this and move on.


http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-n...129-story.html
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Old 01-29-2016, 05:19 PM   #538
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Originally Posted by BEAL View Post
Iowa doesn't matter.
Fuck Des Moines, amirite?
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Old 01-29-2016, 05:22 PM   #539
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2016 US Presidential Election Pt. IV

Quote:
Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase View Post
I'm stating to think there's a better than average chance Hillary gets indicted.

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This man will save the Democratic Party.
#everygenerationneedsahero

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Old 01-29-2016, 05:41 PM   #540
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METRlC SYSTEM FOR ALL AMERICANS!

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