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Old 10-29-2015, 06:11 PM   #316
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Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 View Post
They're not talking about fantasy football. They're talking about gambling, a serious topic of the most serious concerns. Especially when, as mentioned by the moderators, insider information gets passed around. It involves people's money. Billions of dollars. You just shrug it off because it's got a "fantasy football" title attached to it? Replace "fantasy football" with "unregulated stock market" and do you think people will care? Is sports betting not considered gambling, because it doesn't have to do with a deck of cards?
I'm guessing the difference is that with gambling related to fantasy football, and sports betting, people personally choose to put their money at risk like that. Since I don't follow or get involved in fantasy football, I don't put any of my money into it. Nor do any of my family (who are more interested in sports than me). Therefore it's not going to have an impact on our economic situation.

The stock market and banks messing with people's money would be considered a whole different matter, because people put investments and life savings and such into those things, so the effects are a lot more immediate and widespread and bigger. That's where I figure the difference is for politicians, and why they would feel fantasy football gambling is less of an immediate concern in their eyes as a result.

Now, having said that, of course, if there is indeed some shady business involved in sports betting and other related gambling activities, which wouldn't surprise me to learn was the case, then certainly I'm all for people doing what they can to try and put a stop to it. People may personally choose to put their own money into those things, but they still deserve to know it's being handled and used properly. And I would very much support proper regulation of those activities where possible.

And feel free to correct me on anything I may not fully understand about this issue-I'm not in the know, but if this is indeed an important issue, I would very much like to learn more about it .

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the only takeaway from yesterday's debate was that I would like small 1 million dollar inheritance from my dad
Ha. Seriously. People honestly believe this guy's going to help the working class with their economic woes?

Not surprised that Jeb would be flailing and struggling. I think most people just aren't that excited about the Bush dynasty continuing. Since 2008, the Republicans have had to do a weird dance of trying to distance themselves from the negative effects of the Bush administration (up to and including denial that they would've supported or voted for any of the administration's policies) while still trying to prove they're as conservative as Bush Jr. if not more so, to appeal to their base and party voters in general.

But I don't think the number of voters who think fondly on the Bush Jr. years is all that big, even among Republicans (the level of his "true conservatism" would be up for debate). So Jeb would have a hard time getting much support from his own party, let alone the country at large, as a result.
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Old 10-29-2015, 06:32 PM   #317
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re: "fantasy football" and Christie. It was just typical politics, IMO. I believe he was waiting on that one coming right over the middle of the plate. It sounded just like a canned answer to me the way he rattled everything off.

Had he or anyone else been asked one of the typical throwaway questions ("so, who do you like in the World Series?"), he had that one ready to go. It was fantasy football, so he jumped on it. Doesn't matter how serious the subject actually is, all that mattered was the politics of it, in that Christie took the moment to try and impress folks with how 'serious' he was.

The biggest 'macro' takeaway from this debate IMO is that Trump ended the Kasich campaign last night. All that really matters anymore are 'viral' moments. Him blasting Kasich for Lehman Brothers was yuuge.

But seriously, this is what matters these days. Well tempered and measured analysis gets you ending up like Jeb Bush while calling people names and making the crowd laugh makes you a frontrunner.

On the debate, I thought Bush was bad (again) and Cruz was stellar in terms of how well this will help him. I have probably underestimated his appeal. I also thought Rubio was quite solid, especially with criticism coming his way. And I thought Christie was very good as well. I also thought Trump had a good night, just doing his own thing. Token is clearly on borrowed time. He has to be. Right? And Fiorina is the worst and most unqualified of all of them. Can't stand her. Huckabee and Paul just need to pack it in. Christie might have completed a Hail Mary to keep him in it but these others are wasting everyone's time. Let's get down to Trump-Rubio-Cruz...and Christie and stop fucking around with these other fools. Did I mention how much I hate Fiorina? Seriously though, the next debate should only be 5 or 6 of them.
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Old 10-29-2015, 06:48 PM   #318
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Okay...gonna just stop right here. Once again you think i am mad at you...i am not mad at you. I have never been mad at you. It's a difference of opinion, that is all. I don't know where you keep getting this from....second time this has happened between us in a few weeks here in this very thread. If i were truly mad at you, i would ignore you and move on. This forum is not worth getting mad about.

I was referring to Chris Christie getting mad at the moderator. That entire portion of my response was referring to Chris Christie becoming suddenly disgusted by the question.
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Old 10-29-2015, 07:30 PM   #319
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Believe it or not, Token actually earned more Twitter followers last night than anyone else, quite a bit more than Rubio in fact. Seriously, all he has to do is stand there and people want to get on the "See, I'm not racist train"...

And Twitter skews young at that. Most of the Republicans out there, and particularly the debate viewers, skew way older. I get the feeling they'll be even more into Carson standing around and not engaging in a war with words with anyone and/or the aforementioned "not a racist" bonus.

So, would not be surprised at all if Carson's poll numbers continue to rise...and they may rise a lot if he eventually starts biting into Trump's pie. It's starting to look like Carson is the golden boy. If just showing up at the debates is going to give him a huge boost every time, how on earth is anybody going to stop Carson from winning this thing? It's clear a lot of Republican voters are satisfied enough just with the guy existing, he doesn't need to get in any good slams of his opponents or have much of a personality or anything else. He's every racist's dream, an example they can use to say they aren't racist who they know in turn will fight hard against affirmative action and dismantling the welfare state, setting blacks back even further. He's their knight in black armor!

I don't think anybody from the main stage will drop out before the next debate. Bush will want to, but they still need to spend all that Super PAC money and see what happens. The undercard, particularly Graham and Santorum and Pataki could all leave real soon. Jindal at least has a prayer given his favorables and alright Iowa numbers, but he needs a big moment real soon.

I'd say...

1. Rubio - 60% chance at the nomination (You wonder how things would have turned out for Walker with a few things going his way...)

2. Cruz - 18% chance at the nomination (Basically, just would happen to win via being preferred to Rubio than for what he stands for)

3. Carson - 15% chance at the nomination (Can't ignore a likely Iowa victory and has the potential to hit about 40% nationwide, I think)

4. Trump - 5% chance at the nomination (I still don't think he even makes it to the caucus, but if he can hold on to his numbers for just a few more months it wouldn't be surprising for him to become the nominee)

5. Kasich - 1% chance at the nomination (I feel he has the most rational arguments, even if I almost totally disagree with his policy methods, and will play well in areas like the North East, and of course, Ohio)

6. Christie - just below 1% chance at the nomination (Would have to keep up the bluster and hope the other establishment choices all fall apart)

7. Jindal - whatever's left of Christie's share of 1% (Needs that big moment, but has likability and decent Iowa ground game)


Like Bush, Fiorina has proven she can't really gain any traction. She's done too.

It was looking earlier like Fiorina would have the best chances of the anti-establishment crowd to take on the rising star that is Rubio while Bush's money would make him the dark horse. Now? It's basically Rubio's nomination to lose once the hot air inevitably leaks out from Carson and Trump.

Paul and Huckabee were already completely dead candidacies before we even got to these debates. Both of them literally have a ceiling among this group that would cap at about 10% of nationwide support and therefore makes it impossible for either to win the nomination.
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Old 10-29-2015, 07:47 PM   #320
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I was referring to Chris Christie getting mad at the moderator. That entire portion of my response was referring to Chris Christie becoming suddenly disgusted by the question.
Okay thanks for clearing that up. Hopefully you can see why i thought you were talking about me and not Christie, though.
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Old 10-29-2015, 07:48 PM   #321
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Originally Posted by Moonlit_Angel View Post
But I don't think the number of voters who think fondly on the Bush Jr. years is all that big, even among Republicans (the level of his "true conservatism" would be up for debate). So Jeb would have a hard time getting much support from his own party, let alone the country at large, as a result.
Actually, GWB polls about similar to Obama when you're asking members of his own party which is very high in fact. If that weren't the case, I doubt Jeb! would have ever run.

On the other hand, Republicans know damn well just how much GWB is hated by this country (or at least was hated by the end of his second term). That makes Jeb! by default a candidate that they aren't necessarily going to want to get behind because they don't feel he can beat Clinton.
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Old 10-29-2015, 07:48 PM   #322
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Bush was so tone deaf to go after Rubio with that planned attack line after Rubio had just fended off a question on the same topic.

Stick a fork in Jeb. His establishment support will start seeping over to Rubio.

Looking at the Real Clear Politics Average:

Outsider-Insurgent: Trump 26.8 / Carson 22 / Cruz 6.6 / Fiorina 5.8 / Paul 3.4 /

Insider-Establishment: Rubio 9 / Bush 7 / Huckabee 3.8 / Kasich 2.6 / Christie 2.4

Outsider-Insurgent: 64.6 %

Insider-Establishment: 24.8 %

At this point in the race the grass roots GOP has a strong preference for the outsider candidates. I predict Rubio will be the victor for the establishment wing, but will have a strong headwind blowing against him from the base.

I think we can safely say the surviving insurgents will be Trump-Carson-Cruz. Latest polls have Carson surging neck and neck with Trump in South Carolina, while Trump maintains dominant leads in NH and Florida. After that latest polls have Trump and Carson in tight races in TX, PA, OK. I predict that Carson will win Iowa while Trump takes NH. Carson has to win South Carolina to have any shot IMO. This is how things stand in my mind right now.

I feel that Carson is peaking, but I just don't see him as being a viable candidate. His calm demeanor can only carry him so far, but he seems shaky on certain topics in debates. (I personally do not get the Carson attraction at all). Right now Trump is Teflon. He's less likely to make a campaign ending gaffe than say Carson. Trump's aura of leadership and grasp of economics will carry him farther with GOP voters.

Rubio needs to hope that the Trump-Carson schism in the base remains tight so primary races are a 3-way tossup with each candidate polling around 28% and undecideds breaking to him.

That's my prediction on 10/29/15. I'll have to re-check the post 3 months from now to see if I'm anywhere close.
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Old 10-29-2015, 07:56 PM   #323
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Well, we sure as hell know that if Rubio or even Cruz can't gain enough traction that Romney is going to enter this thing and prove to immediately be the best possible contender to the anti-establishment candidates. The establishment might be able to hold their nose for Cruz, but they aren't going to let Trump or Carson be the nominee. The former is a cartoon character and not only will the latter not be able to handle the big stage, but he is already disqualified due to saying rape abortions should be illegal.

Romney would easily bundle up millions in donations immediately and claim places like the North East with relative ease. The group that willingly got behind him last time are in no way the same people voting for Trump or Carson. Romney basically would kill the candidacies of all the other insiders immediately and automatically hit 30% nationwide right out of the gate.

Desperate establishment will also be able to point to head-to-head polls where Romney clearly does better than Clinton than any of these other people along with Romney's favorables among the general public being way higher. When they start to hear the phrase "Madam President" in their nightmares, Republicans will start to gravitate toward someone like Rubio or Romney in order to try and prevent that from happening. Keep in mind that part of the reason McCain and Romney became the nominees in the last two cycles were because they fared best in the head-to-head match-ups against Clinton/Obama.

Funny enough, the third part of the Carson conversation has been captured in a lot of articles about the guy. His supporters think that because he's black that he's actually going to win over a huge swath of the black vote in the general election, not realizing that it's extremely unlikely given what polls are already showing us, but also that his abortion remarks are the same sort of crap that outright destroyed the Senatorial chances of a few men in a couple of red states back in 2012. So, they think "black = easy victory" when reality is "foot in mouth doctor = landslide loss"
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Old 10-29-2015, 08:13 PM   #324
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You've got a lot of big thoughts on racial politics, BigMacPhisto.

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Old 10-29-2015, 08:33 PM   #325
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I still think Jeb is in it, and merely keeping his guns for later. Avoid being a Trump who gained steam too fast.

I still think though that Trump stands a chance.

I don't think Cruz stands a chance.

I would venture to say this election is going to be either extremely radical, or back to the basics again for the GOP. Meaning, Trump or Carson, or Bush or Rubio.
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Old 10-29-2015, 08:39 PM   #326
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Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 View Post

I would venture to say this election is going to be either extremely radical, or back to the basics again for the GOP. Meaning, Trump or Carson, or Bush or Rubio.
Wide open then.
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Old 10-29-2015, 09:48 PM   #327
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I suppose so, I just don't think there's any room in the middle. Meaning, I think guys like Ted Cruz and Rand Paul are losers in the end. Anti-establishment but part of the establishment.

It's either a complete overthrow, or good ol' Jebby or his pet Rubio.

Just how I see it.
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Old 10-29-2015, 10:20 PM   #328
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Because, imho, gambling is not nearly as serious a problem as what is going on in the middle east, which i think is what he said. He did mention ISIS, among other things, if i recall correctly.
I don't know a ton about what exactly happened at the debate, I haven't seen any of it in context.

But I will say that I would prefer to have a nice mixture of both foreign AND domestic topics at stake, and not just the ones dealing with social issues. It does matter that corporations like these are getting rich off of get rich quick scheming and then ALSO insider trading.

IMO
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Old 10-29-2015, 10:30 PM   #329
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Okay thanks for clearing that up. Hopefully you can see why i thought you were talking about me and not Christie, though.

Yes, sorry. Upon retreading what I wrote, I didn't quite make it clear that the ISIS thing wasn't directed at you but rather a "what-if" of what you were saying.
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Old 10-30-2015, 09:20 AM   #330
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It is so hard to contribute to discussion about Republican debate when you're pretty liberal; I can only see them thru scope of (somewhat) irrational hate and "liberalism should be better" type of idea

but seriously, thou. I can't believe in conservatism in this ever-changing world; to me, it is natural for everything to change and in some sense, advance.
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