2016 US Presidential Election Pt. II

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I know most of you were not around in 1980 or 1984, but there really was such a thing as Reagan Democrats. No real W Democrats in 2000 or 2004.
I know you don't have the advantage of un-knowing our Reagan history.
But in 79-80 Reagan was outside of the GOP mainstream. GHW Bush was the insider pick. The Jeb Bush safe choice.
Reagan was considered an outsider, more of a populace candidate.

I think many of you are wrong on a Trump nomination. He will get more of the African-American vote than W, McCain or Romney got. He won't do great with the Latino vote, but he will have something of a Democrats for Trump, like the Reagan Democrats. Pick up 10-15 per cent of the black vote. Lose 10-15 of the Latino vote, but pick up 10-15 of the independents and 5-7 % of the Democrats. Trump is for sure the GOP best hope.
 
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Except Trump is a lunatic.

The best hope for the GOP, and for our country really, is that Trump actually wins the nomination and causes the party to break in half. The crazies go one way, the moderates go another.

There's no way Trump wins the election. No. Way.

The best bet for the Republicans to win THIS election was actually the "anyone but Clinton" vote, and maybe with the right candidate they could have snuck one out.

A Trump candidacy throws that away, as there will be a much bigger "anyone but this assclown" vote.

For the true future of the Republican party beyond this cycle as a viable, national party, they need to implode and split in two.
 
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I know most of you were not around in 1980 or 1984, but there really was such a thing as Reagan Democrats. No real W Democrats in 2000 or 2004.

I think many of you are wrong on a Trump nomination. He will get more of the African-American vote than W, McCain or Romney got. He won't do great with the Latino vote, but he will have something of a Democrats for Trump, like the Reagan Democrats. Pick up 10-15 per cent of the black vote. Lose 10-15 of the Latino vote, but pick up 10-15 of the independents and 5-7 % of the Democrats. Trump is for sure the GOP best hope.

I think you are spot on. There is definitely a Democratic heritage vote . . .Someone might say My Grandpa was a Democrat because of FDR, Dad was a democrat, so I vote Democrat. I see a lot of that in the Wilkes-Barre Scranton area of PA. There's been more of a leftward lurch in the party that has stranded some of these voters who are not yet ready to throw in with the standard GOP brand just yet. This is where Trump can scoop up some votes.
 
I think you are spot on. There is definitely a Democratic heritage vote . . .Someone might say My Grandpa was a Democrat because of FDR, Dad was a democrat, so I vote Democrat. I see a lot of that in the Wilkes-Barre Scranton area of PA. There's been more of a leftward lurch in the party that has stranded some of these voters who are not yet ready to throw in with the standard GOP brand just yet. This is where Trump can scoop up some votes.

Yea... No.

I consider myself a moderate. I lean to the left on social issues, but I tend to go to the right on a lot of economic and foreign policy.

I'd vote for a true moderate Republican. I'd never vote for this fucking disaster. Not in a million years. He's an absolute joke.

He'll attract idiots. The best thing he has going for him right now is that apparently there are a lot of them.
 
My parents are both independents with slight conservative leanings and there is not a chance in the world they'd vote for Trump.


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Democrats for Trump? Trump seems to have enough trouble winning over enough Republicans for Trump.

Sure he's got a very sizeable minority on side, but when somebody is this polarising they have very little ground to gain when everybody else thinks they're a complete fruitcake.
 
In all of deep's analysis, he left out the potentially largest segment of voters - women. And Trump's favourability with women is somewhere in the 20s last I read (July).

Good luck with that.
 
Hillary's ex-staffer who had set up her email server apparently Plans to Plead the Fifth after a congressional committee subpoenaed him.

Also today TRUMP! has just signed a "loyalty pledge" to the GOP, which promises that he will support the Republican nominee in next year’s general election, effectively ruling out a third-party or independent run (assuming he keeps his word, the doc is not legal or binding).

At some point i suspect we will hear from Ole Joe, sooner than later

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"Kanye West, I'll never say bad about him, you know why? Because he loves Trump," Trump said Thursday. "He goes around saying, 'Trump is my all-time hero,' he goes around saying that to everybody, so Kanye West, I love him. Maybe in a few years I'll have to run against him, I don't know, so I'll take that back."


Oh yea... Donald Trump is really running for president.

This is, without a doubt, the greatest troll job in the history of trolling.
 
Yea... No.

I consider myself a moderate. I lean to the left on social issues, but I tend to go to the right on a lot of economic and foreign policy.

I'd vote for a true moderate Republican. I'd never vote for this fucking disaster. Not in a million years. He's an absolute joke.

He'll attract idiots. The best thing he has going for him right now is that apparently there are a lot of them.


This exactly. I'm extremely moderate but would typically vote for Democrats, and I've come to think that Trump is also fairly moderate, except for his immigration insanity and his awful treatment of women.

But I'd never vote for him, no matter whom the Democrats nominated. Hell, I'd vote for Ted Cruz before I'd vote for Trump.


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SurveyUSA poll released Friday shows in a hypothetical matchup with Hillary Clinton, Trump is ahead 45% to 40%.

But digging into the racial breakdown of the respondents is revealing. For example, the poll finds 25% of black respondents say they would vote for Trump over Clinton.


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i truly love this woman

Sarah Palin wants to be Donald Trump's energy secretary, has no idea what the job entails - Vox

"I think a lot about the Department of Energy, because energy is my baby: oil and gas and minerals, those things that God has dumped on this part of the Earth for mankind’s use instead of us relying on unfriendly foreign nations."

"I'd get rid of it. And I'd let the states start having more control over the lands that are within their boundaries and the people who are affected by the developments within their states. If I were in charge of that, it would be a short-term job, but it would be really great to have someone who knows energy and is pro-responsible development to be in charge."

Except this all has very little to do with the Department of Energy, which mainly oversees the nation's nuclear weapons program — a task consuming nearly half its budget — and conducts energy R&D.

What Palin wants is the Department of Interior, which manages most federal lands. They're the ones handling leases for coal mining or supervising offshore oil and gas drilling. If you wanted to transfer public lands back to the states, you'd focus on Interior, not Energy.

Anyway, even if Palin did become cabinet secretary, she couldn't just abolish a department on her own. That would likely require an act of Congress. But it sounds like Interior should be the agency she "thinks a lot" about.
 
as someone that has been following elections closely for at least 35 years I will say this is unlike any other election cycle.

at this point I will say the most likely GOP nominee is:

1. Trump
2. not Trump
slight edge to no.1

Democratic nominee is:

1. Hillary
2. probably Hillary


Trump is mathematically looking better and better the longer he holds on to these leads. GOP voters are strategically stupid, unsurprisingly. Last time, they didn't like Romney, but couldn't get it together behind just one alternative candidate. This time, it's somewhat similar. The outsiders (Trump, Carson and Fiorina) are polling at over 60% of the entire GOP electorate, leaving the rest of the field (the establishment choices) all in the single digits. If Trump can keep this schtick going into March, the race will be pretty much over as there will be no chance anybody that can afford to stay in the race can mount much of a comeback.

Which is exactly why the powers-that-be are starting to get antsy and want to push Romney to run yet again. Dude would easily clean up the way he did last time as his supporters alone would give him like 30% of the vote out of the gate (and you don't need much more to nab a majority of the delegates). Romney has also had a huge reputation shift with both Republicans and the general public, and I think, would fare better in a head-to-head matchup against the Democratic nominee than any other GOP candidate.

The problem for Trump is that there's no depth to anything he says. He may well be the least informed of the 17 running for that nomination. Vague policy proposals and absolutely no foreign policy knowledge aren't the sort of traits that will get people in Iowa to spend a day in a high school gymnasium caucusing for you.
 
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Another Democrat has just thrown their hat into the ring. Lawrence Lessig is a Harvard Professor whose plan is to get in there and accomplish meaningful electoral reform and then immediately resign as President after doing so. Pollsters began including him a week ago in some of their surveys and he already has managed to raise over $1 million, so it's fair to consider him the sixth major Democrat to announce.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Lessig_presidential_campaign,_2016
 
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