Western intervention is not what keeps ISIS numbers up. Its LACK of western intervention which boosted ISIS from a backyard sandlot to a caliphate. In 2011, with U.S. troops still in Iraq, and the civil war in Syria in its infancy, the acronym ISIS did not exist. U.S. troops withdrew from Iraq at the end of 2011 and the Syrian civil war escalated after 2011. During 2012 and 2013, lack of U.S. involvement in both Syria and Iraq saw the situation in both countries worsen. ISIS grew in Syria during that time. Then in early 2014 they took Falluja and half of Ramadi. Then during the week of June 9 to June 13, large numbers of ISIS forces moved in from Eastern Syria into North West Iraq and defeated Iraqi forces in Mosul and Tikrit that had been weakened partly because of U.S. neglect caused by the U.S. withdrawal in 2011.
Well, sure. I'm not sure what your point is here with the history lesson, my post was exclusively referring to the present situation.
Unlike Al Quada, ISIS has successfully taken provincial capitals in both Syria and Iraq and held them. These unparalleled success's and the use of social media on the internet to spread word of these success's is what is driving recruitment.
Of course Al Qaeda never took any provincial capitals, because expanding and holding a territory was never a goal. Al Qaeda never intended to be the government of anything, that's what the Taliban was there for.
ISIS, on the other hand, as I said earlier, absolutely
must conquer and expand, because without it they have no theological legitimacy.
The Western Air campaign against ISIS has been relatively weak although ISIS's largest advances seem to have been stopped. The group continues though to control a vast amount of territory, and has access to black market oil sales which continues to feed their machine.
Until a responsible political/military policy is put in place, ISIS will remain a threat in the region as well as a worldwide threat. ISIS has numbers and money that dwarf the capabilities of prior terrorist groups. Keep in mind of course, that it does not take vast numbers of people and money to do severe damage on the other side of the world. Just look at what 19 men armed with box cutters were able to do on 9/11.
And once again as stated previously, despite the bluster they (as an organization) have no desire whatsoever to attack Americans in America. That's not to say that some follower who returns home won't carry out an attack on their own and say that it's in the name of ISIS, but ISIS as a group does not want to attack America. They want to attack Syria and Iraq (once again, territory is key for a Caliphate) and don't want to divert money, men, and resources into any kind of large-scale attack on the US because it doesn't really help them. Westerners are scared enough of the
threat of an attack (because who in the US above the age of 25 doesn't immediately think of 9/11 when a group of guys in ski masks with AK-47s speaking Arabic make terrorist threats). They have no need to actually attack, once again, as a group-sanctioned and financed mission, outside Syria and Iraq.
Yes, 19 men with box cutters obviously did a lot of damage, but keep in mind that 9/11 took years and cost a fortune to eventually get those 19 guys on the planes. ISIS hasn't been around long enough, nor does it care enough. A video threatening to cut off the infidels' heads in the streets of America is enough to make Mr and Mrs Baker in Idaho demand action.
Obama's response to ISIS has been weak and ineffective. Hopefully that will change before he leaves office, but I doubt it. There will be a much stronger response to ISIS once Hillary or one of the Republicans comes into office in January 2017.
Bush did a far better job with Iraq than Obama has done. Had Obama not abandoned Iraq at the end of 2011, ISIS would still be a largely unknown rebel group primarily based in Syria.
This kind of thinking is along the lines of a "What if the Nazis had won on D-Day" blog post. It's just empty speculation and guessing. If the Spartans hadn't won at Thermopylae, maybe we'd all be speaking Persian right now. But we don't.