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Old 10-26-2012, 09:35 AM   #1
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2012 US Presidential Election Superthread

Have at it. This thread can replace the myriad others floating around all about the same topic.

I suppose I'll post some of Nate Silver's current data here, for lack of anything better to post. Here are his current swing state probabilities:

Nevada: 77.6% Obama
Colorado: 56.8% Obama
Iowa: 68.3% Obama
Wisconsin: 85.7% Obama
Ohio: 74.8% Obama
Virginia: 54.3% Obama
North Carolina: 81.4% Romney
Florida: 64.7% Romney
New Hampshire: 68.8% Obama

If each candidate wins the states which they have a 50% probability or higher of winning, then the EC map would look like this:



Virginia and Colorado are the closest. They've both done a good bit of flipping back and forth, although there's been somewhat of a trend towards Obama lately. I think that those states could easily go either way. But this does paint a scary picture for Romney. The fact that Romney has never managed to flip Ohio in a majority of polls, or even really come close, even after the first debate, is fairly bad news for him.

The popular vote is a somewhat different story. RealClearPolitics has a +0.9% spread for Romney, but Nate Silver's model still projects a marginal win for Obama. I'm not sure why they diverge; probably because Silver's model is discounting some Romney-leaning polls somewhat. Whether this is bias or the discounted polls are legitimate, I'm not totally sure.

Anyway... have fun. The election is in eleven days. I early voted yesterday! Everyone... get out to the polls when you can.
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Old 10-26-2012, 10:20 AM   #2
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Do you guys actually get to pick specifically between Obama and Romney? Cos we don't get to pick our preferred PM here, we have to vote for the seat we live in, based on those candidates, if I'm not mistaken.
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Old 10-26-2012, 10:32 AM   #3
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Do you guys actually get to pick specifically between Obama and Romney? Cos we don't get to pick our preferred PM here, we have to vote for the seat we live in, based on those candidates, if I'm not mistaken.
We actually pick between Obama and Romney.

I don't know what you mean by seat, but if Australia is anything like it is in the UK where people vote for the party and not the candidates, we Americans don't do it that way.
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Old 10-26-2012, 10:33 AM   #4
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We vote directly for President. We vote separately for our representative to the House of Representatives and a Senator. The difference between the House and the Senate is the House's delegates are allocated proportionally to population, so states like California get more than Wyoming. The Senate has two senators per state, to make sure the smaller states have a voice.

I actually prefer the Parlimentary system you guys have.
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Old 10-26-2012, 10:43 AM   #5
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I don't know what you mean by seat, but if Australia is anything like it is in the UK where people vote for the party and not the candidates, we Americans don't do it that way.
I think it's a mix between British & American, that's why it's nicknamed "Washminster", but Ax will know for sure.
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Old 10-26-2012, 10:44 AM   #6
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Do you guys actually get to pick specifically between Obama and Romney? Cos we don't get to pick our preferred PM here, we have to vote for the seat we live in, based on those candidates, if I'm not mistaken.
That would be because the Prime Minister is no more and no less than the leader of the party able to command a majority in the house. We do not vote for the head of state, but for the party of government. And actually that's fair enough. A parliamentary party decides who its leader will be, and people in the general public who think they have a say in that matter (because the party in question happens to be a viable governing proposition) are woefully misinformed about the state of play.




The 'mix' of Westminster and American systems finds its greatest expression in the matter of a Senate.
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Old 10-26-2012, 10:47 AM   #7
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Which is why we always have leadership spills right? Could the Rudd/Gillard fiasco happen in the States (ie Biden "knifes" Obama)?
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Old 10-26-2012, 10:54 AM   #8
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Well Biden knifing Obama would be a bona fide constitutional crisis to be sure.


Of course, we don't always have leadership spills. In government, I can think of exactly three in the last fifty years: Gorton/McMahon, Hawke/Keating and Rudd/Gillard.

Conversely, could Bush/Gore 2000 happen in Australia? Not on your nelly. Because we have an actual independent commission that runs elections.
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Old 10-26-2012, 10:54 AM   #9
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That would be because the Prime Minister is no more and no less than the leader of the party able to command a majority in the house. We do not vote for the head of state, but for the party of government. And actually that's fair enough. A parliamentary party decides who its leader will be, and people in the general public who think they have a say in that matter (because the party in question happens to be a viable governing proposition) are woefully misinformed about the state of play.

This makes more sense than the US system. When we pick a president, we're under the impression that we are voting for an individual. But we're actually voting for someone who will be heavily influenced by his party, and by his cabinet and advisors who are also members of his party. In that sense, I'm with trojanchick99 by saying the parliamentary system is better.
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Old 10-26-2012, 11:00 AM   #10
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Think of the Australian system as the Congress and Senate, where the majority leader in Congress runs the government, and the President is a powerless figurehead who opens flower shows. And you've about got the picture.
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Old 10-26-2012, 11:30 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by cobl04
Do you guys actually get to pick specifically between Obama and Romney? Cos we don't get to pick our preferred PM here, we have to vote for the seat we live in, based on those candidates, if I'm not mistaken.
What we are technically voting on are slates of electors chosen at state party conventions. However, the ballots the names of the candidates, for obvious reasons.
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Old 10-26-2012, 11:46 AM   #12
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Ahhh, the Electoral College. As a resident of the great state of California, don't even get me started on that.
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Old 10-26-2012, 11:47 AM   #13
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Ahhh, the Electoral College. As a resident of the great state of California, don't even get me started on that.
As a resident of the great state of Texas, I'm in the same boat.
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Old 10-26-2012, 11:58 AM   #14
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I get the feeling that Florida will be red, much like the data you've presented displays.

General impression I've gotten so far from everyone who I know that voted Obama last election seems to be voting Romney, for the swing voters, that is.
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Old 10-26-2012, 12:11 PM   #15
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As a resident of the great state of Texas, I'm in the same boat.
It must be even more frustrating to be a Democrat voting in Texas because the winner take all Electoral College just nullifies your vote.
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