2012 US Presidential Election Superthread

[LUNEDEMINUIT]

But you're comparing COMMENTARY shows with what Fox is calling news. If you're going to compare, compare the Ed show with Hannity or O'Reiley.

Like i said,i'm referring to the Ed show and Christ Matthews.I don't know the editorial view of the morning shows or even the afternoon shows on MSNBC.

 

[BVS]

That doesn't really address my post does it?

 

[deep]

by this time next week, the election will be over, unless we are in re-counts and lawsuits

I read this article last night, seems to be somewhat credible

Cal State Fullerton professor: Math predicts Obama victory | mod - News - The Orange County Register

Cal State Fullerton professor: Math predicts Obama victory
By PAT BRENNAN
2012-10-30 14:33:33

President Obama will win re-election, with a solid victory in the popular vote as well as the electoral college, if a mathematical forecasting model developed by a Cal State Fullerton professor proves to be correct.

The model, which relies on a variety of state-by-state polls as well as historical polling data, predicts a popular vote total of 51.81 percent for Obama vs. 48.19 percent for Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

The model places Obama's electoral college total at 286, Romney's at 252, with 270 needed to win.

The forecast, produced last week, is unlikely to change unless "somebody does a big blunder" between now and Election Day, said Civil and Environmental Engineering Professor Chandra Putcha – or the massive storm on the East Coast affects voter turnout significantly.

Putcha, who used a similar model to successfully predict the outcome of the 2008 presidential election, said that such models are usually developed by people with a political science background.

"People in civil engineering typically do concrete and steel," he said. "When you're talking to a civil engineer, you're talking about building a bridge."

But he said the same principles of probability apply, whether you're building bridges, consulting for aerospace companies – as Putcha has done – or trying to forecast elections.

Besides, compared to political scientists' modeling, "an engineering professor is using much more mathematics than they are using," he said.

Unlike some other well-known forecasting models, such as the one used by Nate Silver of the New York Times in his FiveThirtyEight blog, Putcha said he did not factor in economic shifts – or anything besides polling data.

His model relies on state polls, plus historical voting patterns among states, to come up with probable outcomes for each state.

He then applies probability calculations, using a spread of polling results for each state or, in the language of his field, a "standard deviation."

The polls used in his model include YouGov, Rocky Mountain Poll, Rasmussen Reports and Public Policy Polling.

In 2008, he factored challenger and incumbent strength into his model, but this time around used only polling data.

He does not attempt to account for attitudes about the economy, gay marriage, war or other issues.

"All that, I feel, is getting into the polls," he said.

And he says his forecast is an assessment of probability based on data, not an attempt to predict the election with certainty.

"Only God can say who will win," he said.

The election, he said, is "very close. One of the closest I've seen."

Nationwide, such attempts at probabilistic forecasting are about evenly divided, said Jay DeSart, an associate political science professor at Utah Valley University.

"I think there are maybe a dozen forecast models out there for elections," he said. "They've been split. About half say Romney is going to win, the other half say Obama is going to win."

DeSart's model, done with Thomas Holbrook, a government professor at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, has produced numbers similar to those of Putcha, whom he has met; both contributed chapters to a book on election forecasting in 2010.

The DeSart and Holbrook model gives Obama 51.39 percent of the popular vote, Romney 48.61, and gives Obama 281 electoral votes to Romney's 257.

Putcha said he will be more likely to publish a paper on his method if his forecast proves right, though he might do so even if it fails.

He declined to say whom he favors in the election.

"I don't want to get into that," he said. "For me, it's the mathematics. It doesn't matter whether I like the output, or don't like the output; that is what the numbers are saying."

 

[anitram]

^

I still feel like VA will go for Obama, otherwise the map looks as I expect it to.

 

[deep]

you see he (they ) only have VA at 52% for Romney,
I was surprised that on that map Romney's best chance for a flip is Oregon
and Obama's is VA and Kansas

 

[Pearl]

Christians across the nation will have an opportunity to shape the future for our generation and generations to come. Many issues are at stake, but some issues are not negotiable: The right to life from conception to natural death. Marriage should be reinforced, not redefined. It is an egregious violation of our cherished principle of religious liberty for the government to force the church to buy the kind of insurance that leads to the taking of innocent human life. Your vote will affect the future and be recorded in eternity. Will you vote the values that will stand the test of fire? This is Mike Huckabee asking you to join me November the 6th and vote based on values that will stand the test of fire.

Mike Huckabee Warns Christians: Obama Vote Will Crumple In Hell's Fire (VIDEO)


Oh jeez. If I weren't so bothered by this, I would laugh and say Huckabee is being overly desperate.

ETA: I like how the Daily Kos denounces his ad

I would take these moral scolds a wee bit more seriously—just a bit, mind you—if I had, say, ever heard of someone being evicted from their religion over their unwavering public support for torture. Or if public endorsement of the death penalty was an excommunication-worthy offense, because hey, life is life. But it's not, and it never will be, because modern religious conservatism is about sex, sex, and sex. I have never heard Mike Huckabee or any of these other moral scolds get a tenth as worked up over anything—human rights, torture, mass bombings, assassinations, industrialized slavery, deportations, worker exploitation, child poverty, other poverty, fouled water, insufficient food, or ostentatious fake preachers taking the Lord's name in vain to beg for a few more million dollars on the teevee—as they do over the notion that somebody, somewhere, is having sex in an unapproved fashion.

 

[deep]

Obama will receive less of the African-American vote this year compared to 2012, will it make a difference? in a close race each group has extra value.

If Obama wins a close race, Romney's loss of Latinos will rate large.

 

[Irvine511]

^

I still feel like VA will go for Obama, otherwise the map looks as I expect it to.

given how well Tim Kaine is doing against Macaca, i agree.

 

[Irvine511]

Obama will receive less of the African-American vote this year compared to 2012, will it make a difference?

perhaps it will matter in states where the right to vote on people's marriages is on the ballot?

 

[deep]

this election will be sliced and diced to death, a very close election will give up months of Monday morning quarter backing.

One thing for sure, Romney, like him or not, through his flopping, avoiding questions, getting his taxes off the agenda, has proven to be better? than I expected.

 

[Irvine511]

i think Christie's post-Sandy embrace of Obama is partially legitimate, he is an emotional, sentimental man and is likely shaken to see the destruction of his beloved Springsteenian landscape.

but, given his self-laudatory convention speech, i think he's well aware of the need to create an image of a bipartisan, moderate, "electable" Republican who can compete with Hillary in 2016.

lay the groundwork now.

 

[deep]

I think he is just wearing his Governor hat now, he wants to get as much help as he can get for his constituents, after he told them they could eat shit and die for staying in their homes.

and what ever you think of Christie now,
he won't get through the GOP primaries without pandering to the fringe right, McCain tried it a bit in 2000, learned how to get nominated by 2008,
Romney knew what he had to do this year to get the nomination.

Christie will have less of a chance of getting the nomination than the last NJ candidate, Bill Bradley.

 

[indra]

Christie will have less of a chance of getting the nomination than the last NJ candidate, Bill Bradley.

I liked Bill Bradley. We could use many more politicians like him now.

 

[INDY500]

Fox News = la vérité

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Obama went to NJ today and surveyed damage with Christie. I think he just loves his state and wants the best for it. He did say he doesn't care about the election and I believe him. Don't think he's thinking at all about his own political future right now. How could anyone with a human heart be doing that?

 

[deep]

Fox News = la vérité

speak American or
go back to Mexico

 

[the iron horse]

I will vote for Gary Johnson, The Libertarian Party candidate, but
I predict that Mitt Rommney will win the election next Tuesday by
a much wider margin than many people think.

It will not be a close election.

 

[deep]

who's tired of the election?

Tired of Bronco Bamma and Mitt Romney - YouTube

 

[digitize]

I will vote for Gary Johnson, The Libertarian Party candidate, but
I predict that Mitt Rommney will win the election next Tuesday by
a much wider margin than many people think.

It will not be a close election.

Do you have any evidence for this?

 

[deep]

I will vote for Gary Johnson.

I forget if you are in a swing state or not


Johnson voters in Colo are removing themselves from having any impact in that swing state.

 

[Pearl]

I will vote for Gary Johnson, The Libertarian Party candidate, but
I predict that Mitt Rommney will win the election next Tuesday by
a much wider margin than many people think.

It will not be a close election.

Why are you so certain?

 

[deep]

Do you have any evidence for this?

I have heard that from more than one person

 

[Irvine511]

Dick Morris said this today.

and Dick Morris is always, always wrong.

 

[the iron horse]

Do you have any evidence for this?

I've seen some of the recent polls.

The early voting seems to favor Rommney.

Plus, the mood of the nation I'm feeling is like
a "Jimmy Carter" kind of thud.

 

[deep]

he is not the only one

I do remember in 1980, when I was 25, everyone said it would be close, but Carter would win.

 

[Irvine511]

we'll see.

i the meantime, let the right wing continue to kill the messengers, like Nate Silver.

 

[deep]

if I had to bet money, it would be on Obama

but

Nov 1980, Gallup Pre-Election Poll
Carter 44%
Reagan 41%

Final Results

Reagan 50.7%
Carter 41.0%

 

[Irvine511]

Race tight in four states, Obama holds slight edge: Reuters/Ipsos poll | Reuters

 

[BVS]

I've seen some of the recent polls.

The early voting seems to favor Rommney.

Plus, the mood of the nation I'm feeling is like
a "Jimmy Carter" kind of thud.

Remember '04 LOTS of folks were in your same boat.

The "mood" leaned towards Kerry and whatever poll you decided to believe did the same.

 

[anitram]

The early voting seems to favor Rommney.

? Stats, please.