2012 US Presidential Election Superthread

[mama cass]

There's all kinds of blame and spin going on today. But I've been seeing a lot of, "well the only reason ______ voted for Obama was because he gives you free shit."

So all you Obama supporters, what did he give you?







Here's the reason Romney lost, plain and simple:

The GOP has become an insurgent outlier in American politics. It is ideologically extreme; scornful of compromise; unmoved by conventional understanding of facts, evidence and science; and dismissive of the legitimacy of its political opposition.

When one party moves this far from the mainstream, it makes it nearly impossible for the political system to deal constructively with the country’s challenges.

By Thomas E. Mann and Norman J. Ornstein(an employee of the conservative think tank American Enterprise Institute)

good quote

as an outsider in particular, i find the GOP incomprehensible and very scary indeed... it baffles me that they could get into such a powerful position...

 

[deep]

When is 332 less than 286 ????


Obama got 332 EC votes, or 62% to Romney's 38%. A big margin.

In 2004 W won with 286 EC votes. One state, Ohio was his margin.

In all national votes cast, Bush beat Kerry by more votes than Obama beat Romney.
Also more people voted for Bush in 2004 than people that voted for Obama yesterday..

The Electoral College really is terrible. Hopefully some GOP will see that now. I would just like to see it go away.

 

[Danny Boy]

So Obama won the popular vote and the Electoral College. What do the margins of victory have to do with whether it is a good system?

I don't think anyone is viewing this year's election as a landslide or some huge mandate.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Also more people voted for Bush in 2004 than people that voted for Obama yesterday..

Third party turnout was bigger this year (and not all votes have been counted yet).

Also, third party voters in Florida were greater than the difference between Obama and Romney. Yay!

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Also, irrelevant comparing a 2004 population to a 2012 population. There's still millions of votes to come in. In all likelihood, both Romney and Obama will pass Bush's total from 2004.

 

[deep]

So Obama won the popular vote and the Electoral College. What do the margins of victory have to do with whether it is a good system?

I don't think anyone is viewing this year's election as a landslide or some huge mandate.

332 to 206 is a huge margin

slide the popular vote down 3-4 million, good chance Obama still wins, but could lose popular by millions.

Please keep in mind this is not a partisan issue for me. Since 2000 when I studied the EC every which way, and did models, I saw how absolutely stupid and indefensible it is. Any GOP people I know would just shut down the conversation, because they believe the unfair system favors them. I tried to explain how the Dems could lose the popular vote by millions and still win the EC. The models were similar to what happened last night. Romney, GOP could easily pick up millions of votes in large (or small) safe states, especially CA, TX, NY, NJ, MA but not enough to change the outcome. Let's say in those states Romney got his supporters to the polls by 2% more? No change in EC votes awarded. But he wins the popular by a good margin.

The fact that these scenarios exist, and are plausible is just stupid. I would rather have a national popular vote razor thin, where the person that got the most votes is declared the winner, over one state being razor thin, and having that one state decide. Especially if it goes against the national popular vote winner, that may have won by millions. What is the rational in calling that a better system?

I am not arguing for an outcome I want. Except that the winner be the legitimate winner.
I do realize that one could be conceived illegitimately, even against the public will. Some people might call that conception an act of God. I do not recognize it as that.

 

[LemonMelon]

"Thanks a lot Christians, for not showing up. You disgust me."

I don't know who she's talking about. I voted

 

[digitize]

332 to 206 is a huge margin

slide the popular vote down 3-4 million, good chance Obama still wins, but could lose popular by millions.

Please keep in mind this is not a partisan issue for me. Since 2000 when I studied the EC every which way, and did models, I saw how absolutely stupid and indefensible it is. Any GOP people I know would just shut down the conversation, because they believe the unfair system favors them. I tried to explain how the Dems could lose the popular vote by millions and still win the EC. The models were similar to what happened last night. Romney, GOP could easily pick up millions of votes in large (or small) safe states, especially CA, TX, NY, NJ, MA but not enough to change the outcome. Let's say in those states Romney got his supporters to the polls by 2% more? No change in EC votes awarded. But he wins the popular by a good margin.

The fact that these scenarios exist, and are plausible is just stupid. I would rather have a national popular vote razor thin, where the person that got the most votes is declared the winner, over one state being razor thin, and having that one state decide. Especially if it goes against the national popular vote winner, that may have won by millions. What is the rational in calling that a better system?

This post wins.

 

[Danny Boy]

The fact that these scenarios exist, and are plausible is just stupid. I would rather have a national popular vote razor thin, where the person that got the most votes is declared the winner, over one state being razor thin, and having that one state decide. Especially if it goes against the national popular vote winner, that may have won by millions. What is the rational in calling that a better system?

Totally agree with this. I just don't think that anyone who understands our electoral system saw last night's results and thought, "ZOMG landslide!"

 

[corianderstem]

The Republicans don't have a choice but to find a way to court the Hispanic vote. It is a rapidly growing demographic that just voted for Obama in excess of 70%. The hard realism is that trend cannot persist if the Republican Party wants to have any viable future.

Did anyone else see the Republican (can't recall if he was a politician or just another talking head, or what network it was on) come right out and say, "we have a Latino problem"?

You may want to rethink that choice of words, buddy.

 

[deep]

Did anyone else see the Republican (can't recall if he was a politician or just another talking head, or what network it was on) come right out and say, "we have a Latino problem"?

You may want to rethink that choice of words, buddy.

They can't vote Democratic if we deport them. That would solve the Latino problem.
And go a long way in lowering unemployment, and cut down on all the government programs.

 

[trojanchick99]

So the NateSilverFacts hashtag on twitter is comedy gold.

My contribution: Nate Silver knows the air speed of an unladen swallow. #natesilverfacts

Han Solo lets Nate Silver tell him the odds. #natesilverfacts

Heisenberg asks Nate Silver when he's feeling uncertain. #natesilverfacts

#natesilverfacts When they find the Higgs-Bosson particle it will contain a note from Nate with winning lottery numbers for that day

#natesilverfacts Nate Silver already knows how many #natesilverfacts will be written this week.

 

[mikal]

Did anyone else see the Republican (can't recall if he was a politician or just another talking head, or what network it was on) come right out and say, "we have a Latino problem"?

You may want to rethink that choice of words, buddy.

Yes, I saw that too.

In context it made sense, but if I were to shout that phrase out in the east side of Green Bay, I would expect to get my legs broken, best case scenario.

 

[Danny Boy]

Ted Nugent responds...

Goodluk America u just voted for economic & spiritual suicide. Soulless fools.

 

[BVS]

Ted Nugent is giving spiritual advice?

 

[LemonMelon]

If anyone knows soul, it's Mitt Romney.

So hey, I thought society came crashing down four years ago. Apparently it was still salvageable.

 

[bollox]

But don't you see? That was always the plan; now Barack Hussein Obama can implement his TRUE agenda!

Spoiler

Socialism, bitches!

 

[Danny Boy]

But don't you see? That was always the plan; now Barack Hussein Obama can implement his TRUE agenda!

Spoiler

Socialism Sharia Law, bitches!

Fixed.

 

[cobl04]

Would I be right in saying that the GOP should be extremely concerned? Especially considering all the criticism over the past four years, and despite the state of the economy, the GOP still lost. Not a good sign?

But don't you see? That was always the plan; now Barack Hussein Obama can implement his TRUE agenda!

* SPOILER *

YEAH BITCH!

Spoiler

MAGNETS!

 

[trojanchick99]

You are absolutely right. The changing demographics in this country will require them to rethink some things or become irrelevant nationally.

Because of the way states can gerrymander congressional districts, you will continue to see them do well there, but they will continue to have problems with Senate and Presidential races if they don't reassess.

 

[Irvine511]

Would I be right in saying that the GOP should be extremely concerned? Especially considering all the criticism over the past four years, and despite the state of the economy, the GOP still lost. Not a good sign?

yes, they should be. they had a perfect opportunity in a time of economic near-crisis to exploit that fear for political gain. it didn't work.

and Romney was, in my opinion, by far the best of the rather insane GOP field. no one else would have even cracked 150 EVs against Obama.

their big problem, though, is that they got killed by the Latino vote. also, black turnout was even higher than in 2008. people under 30s voted even higher than in 2008. and women broke big for Obama.

you can't rely on older, whiter, male voters and expect to win the USA in 2012.

the future looks like Obama.

 

[Irvine511]

i think it will be less close than people think.

if the polls are wrong, then Romney runs the table and gets over 300EV.

if the polls are right, Obama repeats 2008 without Indiana and maybe Florida.

i don't see a squeaker like 2000 or 2004. my prediction is the winner will get over 300 EV.

and i know that because i feel it in my gut. i don't need anything else.

see? all you need is a feeling.

 

[bollox]

their big problem, though, is that they got killed by the Latino vote.

I think all but the most dense of conservatives is starting to figure this out. I'm guessing they are already getting Marco Rubio ready for a 2016 run. I would say Chris Christie would be one of their best bets, but he'll probably need to work his way back into their good graces. Still, if he can corner the fat people vote, they'd have something, since that cuts across racial/gender/class lines (I'm only partially joking)

 

[deep]

really, not (exactly) a squeaker like 2004 but

it would be interesting to see how this would have played out without the Sandy bounce, if Romney was still up nationally by 3 points?

what would have happened in FL, VI, OH, and CO ?

 

[corianderstem]

Gay Marriage Campaign Declares Victory (MARRIAGES BEGIN IN A MONTH)! | Slog

 

[Diemen]

Limbaugh weighs in:

But first, let me tell you, small things beat big things yesterday. Conservatism, in my humble opinion, did not lose last night. It's just very difficult to beat Santa Claus. It is practically impossible to beat Santa Claus. People are not going to vote against Santa Claus, especially if the alternative is being your own Santa Claus.

Now, everybody is jumping on Romney's chain today, getting in his chili. Look, he may have not been the most optimal candidate, but he's a fine man. He would have been great for this country. Mitt Romney and his family would have been the essence of exactly what this country needs. But what was Romney's recipe? Romney's recipe was the old standby: American route to success, hard work. That gets sneered at. I'm sorry. In a country of children where the option is Santa Claus or work, what wins? And say what you want, but Romney did offer a vision of traditional America. In his way, he put forth a great vision of traditional America, and it was rejected. It was rejected in favor of a guy who thinks that those who are working aren't doing enough to help those who aren't. And that resonated.

The Obama campaign was about small stuff. War on Women, binders, Big Bird, this kind of stuff. The Romney campaign was about big things, was about America. It's mind-boggling to go through these exit polls. You want to hear a statistic that is somewhat surprising? Romney received two and a half million fewer votes than McCain did. Now, who would have called that? Who in the world would have? I think Obama's vote tally was down ten million from 2008, and we still lost. We lost 50 to 48 nationally. We were not able to build a turnout model that looked like 2004. Very puzzling.

Something else. Just stream of consciousness here. The usual suspects are out, and they're saying, "Rush, we gotta reach out now to the Hispanics and reach out to the minorities, blacks." Okay, let me remind you of something. Just ask you a question. And we will be getting your phone calls of course today, you weigh in on this, 800-282-2882 is the number. Let me take you back to the Republican convention. We had Suzanne Martinez, female Hispanic governor, New Mexico. We had Condoleezza Rice, African-American, former secretary of state. Both of those people imminently qualified, terrifically achieved. They have reached the pinnacles of their profession.

We had Marco Rubio. We had a parade of minorities who have become successful Americans. And they all had a common story: up from nothing, hard work, their parents sacrificed for them. Now, why didn't that work, folks? The answer to that is our future. Why didn't it work? Some people say, "Well, Rush, we pandered." No, we didn't pander. Everybody says that we need to reach out to minorities. We have plenty of highly achieved minorities in our party, and they are in prominent positions, and they all have a common story. They all came from nothing. Their parents came from nothing. They worked hard. They told those stories with great pride. Those stories evoked tears. It didn't work. And don't tell me that people didn't watch the convention or people didn't see it. I mean, there's a reason it doesn't work.

I went to bed last night thinking we're outnumbered. I went to bed last night thinking all this discussion we'd had about this election being the election that will tell us whether or not we've lost the country. I went to bed last night thinking we've lost the country. I don't know how else you look at this. The first wave of exit polls came in at 5 p.m. I looked at it, I read the first two pages, and I said to myself, "This is utter BS." And I forwarded the exit poll data that I had to three or four people, and my message to each of them, "This is utter BS, and if it isn't, then we've lost the country." Let me take you through some of it.

Based on early exit polls, Obama is locked in a tight race with Governor Romney. Nationally we believe the race to be as tight as it could be, and to the extent that Obama is running strong and can win, it is because they see him as someone who cares about people like them. They feel he did a very good job in the response to Hurricane Sandy. When I saw that, I thought this thing is starting to read like a Democrat campaign speech, this exit poll data. Hurricane Sandy and the aftermath and the way Obama handled that, what did Obama do? He showed up one day, he bear hugged Chris Christie, and then he left. The situation on the ground is devastating, and yet Obama triumphs in the exit polls with that.

He successfully painted Romney's policies as caring primarily about the rich. He successfully convinced roughly half the country that his policies will favor the middle class. Now, measure that against reality. The reality is that the economy of this country is crumbling. The unemployment situation is worsening. The debt situation is worsening. Everything for the very people who think Obama's gonna help them is getting worse, and yet they told the exit poll people that they thought Obama's the best guy to handle
Obamacare.

A majority of people like Obamacare in the exit poll. That goes against everything we've ever heard in any poll. Voters trust him more than Romney in an international crisis. What? How in the world can that be? In a rational, intelligent world, how can that be? "He's running very strong with African-Americans, Latinos, and women. If he wins, this data will be consistent with stories about the changing nature of US demographics."

And I saw this next one. This is the one that made me think this exit poll was BS. I just, intellectually, had trouble with this one. "More than half the people who voted yesterday said that they still blame Bush for the economy." More than half the people who...? After four years! Well, now, what is the answer to this? How in the world do you deal with this? There are ways, and we didn't do them. There were too many assumptions made about what the American people thought, about what they knew.

Too many assumptions were made. But look, I don't want to nitpick the campaign today. That's not the point. There are larger things here at work. "Roughly half voters want the health care law as it is or expanded, and they are voting for Obama." Really? I haven't seen a poll like that anywhere. Every poll -- every poll! -- I have seen on Obamacare features a majority and close to 60% who don't like it, but this is an exit poll of people who voted.

"People who say they are looking for a strong leader and someone who has more of a vision for the future support Romney. Romney even wins among voters voting for 'a candidate who shares my values.' Voters believe the economy's weak and Romney will be better able to manage the economy." Now, this is for people the exit pollers say, this is the reason if Romney wins. This is why. Well, obviously, those people were vastly outnumbered, which is where we are today.

We're outnumbered.

One of the greatest misunderstandings in this country, if you boil all this down, is what creates prosperity. The Romney campaign was essentially about that, and the Romney campaign was devoted to the traditional American view and history -- vision, as well -- of what creates prosperity. The old capitalism, the old arguments of hard work, stick-to-itiveness, self-reliance, charity, helping out in the community.

All of these things that define the traditional institutions that made this country great, that's what the Romney campaign was about. It was rejected. That way, or that route to prosperity was sneered at. That route to prosperity was rejected. The people who voted for Obama don't believe in it. They don't think it's possible. They think the game's rigged. They think the deck is stacked against them.

They think that the only way they're gonna have a chance for anything is if somebody comes along and takes from somebody else and gives it to them. Santa Claus! And it's hard to beat Santa Claus. Especially it's hard to beat Santa Claus when the alternative is, "You be your own Santa Claus." "Oh, no! I'm not doing that. What do you mean, I have to be my own Santa Claus? No, no. No, no, no. I want to get up every day and go to the tree. You're the elves," meaning us.

You throw Hurricane Sandy in here. I must admit, I am genuinely puzzled that Hurricane Sandy and the aftermath helped Obama and hurt Romney. But it did. According to the exit polls. I mean, what they say is what they say. The polls were right on the money, as it turned out. But until people understand why and how big government reduces prosperity for all, they're gonna continue to be fooled by little things.

By marketing, by smooth talkers, by faux compassion. So we'll see what happens with the economy as we go forward. Some people think, "Hey, Rush, the economy is resilient in this country, and it's gonna naturally rebound. No matter what." There are people today scared the economy is going to rebound despite what's happening in the stock market today and Obama's policies are gonna get credit for it.

A bunch of libs are salivating over that. They think the economy is gonna come back no matter what, and that Obama's big government is going to end up being the explanation for the rest of our lives as to how that happened. Just like in Japan, just like in Greece. But look, you bring up Greece and you bring up Europe, and they're where we're headed. Their problems are acute.

The difference is that none of those European countries are anywhere near the leading economy of the world like we are. The world depends on what happens here. The world does not depend on what happens in Spain or Greece or Italy. Not to put them down. But regardless, wherever you go... Look at Greece. Whenever necessary austerity measures are proposed, what happens?

"No, you don't! You're not taking it away from me!" There is no rising to responsibility. There is no accepting responsibility. There's just a demand that the gravy train continue, and we have an administration that's promising an endless gravy train. All you have to do to stay on that gravy train is vote. But it doesn't matter.

The thing that's mind-boggling is that there is no new prosperity in America. There is no improved standard of living. It's all going down. "But Obama cares. He really cares! He cares much more than Romney. He really, really cares. In fact, he cares so much, we're gonna give him a do-over. We're gonna give him a second term to do what we know he wanted to do in the first term but wasn't able to for whatever reason."

I love the kind of frantic tone to this.

Maybe, just maybe, most Americans saw through the Republican lie that Obama hasn't done anything and saw that Republicans were more concerned with regaining power than with working together for the betterment of this country.

 

[corianderstem]

Now, everybody is jumping on Romney's chain today, getting in his chili.

.... what?

 

[deep]

.

 

[corianderstem]

Please tell me that's just a poorly-timed typo.

 

[trojanchick99]

It still pisses me off that he believes the working class of this country just don't work hard enough. Ugh.