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Old 11-03-2012, 09:43 PM   #226
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Anyone want to place bets on what the electoral tally will be?

 
Obama:303 Romney:235
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Old 11-03-2012, 09:49 PM   #227
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Anyone want to place bets on what the electoral tally will be?

 
Obama:303 Romney:235
I'm going to go ahead and go with you and Nate Silver on that. To me, this election interests me tremendously as a referendum on Nate Silver. I like him a lot, and I'll be interested to see if that is justified.

I'm also starting to wonder if Obama has a chance at Florida again. Things have been tightening there lately.
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Old 11-03-2012, 10:54 PM   #228
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I'm going to go ahead and go with you and Nate Silver on that. To me, this election interests me tremendously as a referendum on Nate Silver. I like him a lot, and I'll be interested to see if that is justified.

I'm also starting to wonder if Obama has a chance at Florida again. Things have been tightening there lately.
I gave Romney Florida, but I think it will be close, if not go to Obama. Romney just seems to have collapsed and is just waiting for this thing to end.
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Old 11-03-2012, 11:09 PM   #229
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Old 11-03-2012, 11:52 PM   #230
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The way things are going in Florida (and this might just be because I haven't been in South Florida in a while), I'd say it's a Romney state for sure.

Then again, I'm very used to the ultra-liberal South so I could just be well out of place in Central Florida.
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:13 AM   #231
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I would just like to wish everybody good luck and may the best man win.
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Old 11-04-2012, 12:48 PM   #232
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It'll be interesting to see which narrative holds up with Romney in PA, WI, & MI. If he loses he campaigned there to replace electoral votes lost in Ohio. If he wins it was to expand his lead.

It'll also be interesting to see if the charges that 2008 enthusiasm being used in 2012 polls was accurate or not.

Dick Morris and Nate Silver have both gone on the ledge. One prognosticator or another is going to get shit on their face.

Rasumussen is Nate Silver's competitor so it will be another poll to compare for accuracy.
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Old 11-04-2012, 01:01 PM   #233
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I live in central PA and people still don't really trust Romney. I expect that back home in Philly but not here. This is a really Republican area. Look at the command GT Thompson has over this district. But they do not like Romney.
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Old 11-04-2012, 01:55 PM   #234
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My guess is something like a 2004 Bush over Kerry defeat, in favor of Obama.
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Old 11-04-2012, 02:11 PM   #235
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that was a one state win

and many believe there were shenanigans, perhaps not enough to flip the vote, but enough to move the his margin of winning in the one state, Ohio.
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Old 11-04-2012, 02:21 PM   #236
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I was just referring to the numbers, not the specific situation.
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Old 11-04-2012, 02:21 PM   #237
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Rasumussen is Nate Silver's competitor so it will be another poll to compare for accuracy.
Not even close.

You are comparing apples and oranges. Rasmussen is a pollster who conducts his own polls and publishes them. Nate Silver is somebody who uses mathematical models to aggregate polls carried out by people like Rasmussen.

So they are not competing at all.
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Old 11-04-2012, 02:32 PM   #238
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I haven't paid much attention to the polls, because who knows what's going on with the data in many of them.

I just know I'm seeing a lot of Obama/Biden signs throughout my town, so...there's that . I do think our state will likely go for Obama as many of the things people have been sharing here have predicted.
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Old 11-04-2012, 02:34 PM   #239
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Not even close.

You are comparing apples and oranges. Rasmussen is a pollster who conducts his own polls and publishes them. Nate Silver is somebody who uses mathematical models to aggregate polls carried out by people like Rasmussen.

So they are not competing at all.
What is the difference? They are both competing on predictions. I didn't say Nate Silver is polling people.

See competition:

Rasmussen Reports - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 11-04-2012, 02:36 PM   #240
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What is the difference? They are both competing on predictions. I didn't say Nate Silver is polling people.
It's a dumb comparison IMO because one controls whom he polls. The other has imperfect information - he is using other people's polls/polling methods.
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