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Old 11-03-2008, 11:09 AM   #841
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Election Results: McCain Campaign Manager On The Five Must-Win States

What are your thoughts on this article? Obviously, what it says is true about the states McCain would have to win in order win the election, but how likely do you think they are?
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Old 11-03-2008, 11:14 AM   #842
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I think it will be decided by Ohio and PA
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Old 11-03-2008, 11:15 AM   #843
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I think it will be decided by Ohio and PA
Assuming one of NM, CO or NV are safe, it'll be decided by PA and VA even sooner, OH and FL won't matter.
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Old 11-03-2008, 11:16 AM   #844
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I was just kidding I think he should be campaigning too. But if he was trying to rehab his image isn't it a bit too late to do it the Sat before the election at 11:30 ET? That's a really lame way to do that as well-unless you think that people are that gullible.


desperation maybe?


i agree he should of been campaigning then.
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Old 11-03-2008, 11:34 AM   #845
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Time.com

Electoral Math: For McCain, the Numbers Aren't Adding Up

By MARK HALPERIN Sun Nov 2, 11:40 pm ET

Barring an extraordinary shock, Barack Obama will win more than 270 electoral votes on Tuesday, giving him the White House. Hours before voting starts, John McCain has no clear path to reaching that same goal.

In fact, based on interviews with political strategists in both parties, election analysts and advisers to both presidential campaigns - including a detailed look at public and private polling data - an Obama victory with well over 300 electoral votes is a more likely outcome than a McCain victory.

Under the Electoral College system, a candidate wins all of a state's electoral votes as long as he or she achieves a popular vote victory of any margin. Obama's commanding position results from the fact that he holds seemingly impregnable popular vote leads in twenty-four states, plus the District of Columbia, with 291 electoral votes, more than he needs to win. Obama's geographic anchors are the northeast, the mid-Atlantic, the upper industrial Midwest and the west coast, all areas that Democratic presidential candidates have dominated for several election cycles. But he is encroaching on other states as well that have recently been gone dependably Republican, including Nevada, Virginia and Colorado.

With his superior spending, better organization on the ground, and poll standing, in fact, Obama actually seems poised to win the majority of the remaining toss-up states. If there is a pro-Democratic/anti-Bush wave cresting, as some top strategists in both parties believe, Obama could take all of the still contested battlegrounds, giving him nearly 400 electoral votes, and a significant multi-regional mandate. The remaining toss-up states are all large ones - Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri - with a total of 84 electoral votes, and were all won by Bush in 2000 and 2004. And some additional western and southern states that are currently leaning towards McCain (such as North Dakota and Georgia) could end up in the Democratic column, lifting Obama over 400.

McCain's challenge - and only hope - is to find a way to get just over 270 votes, starting with pulling back into the Republican column some states that appear to be titling clearly towards Obama. Then he needs to sweep the toss-ups, where in almost every case polling shows him behind. Right now, McCain leads solidly or more narrowly in 21 states with 163 electoral votes.

McCain's most likely victory scenario is to hold nearly all of the states that George W. Bush won in 2004. The Republican's strategists have claimed for several days that they are closing their gaps in many of the traditionally Republican states to within striking distance. Actually overtaking Obama in enough states to win would require a combination of factors: Obama's get-out-the-vote efforts have to turn out to be weaker than thought; young voters have to fail to channel their enthusiasm for Obama into actually voting; race has to be a bigger factor than most pollsters currently believe it to be; conservatives have to be more fired up than they have seemed; independents have to be more attracted to the Republican ticket than they have been all year; and, most of all, late-deciding voters have to break disproportionately to McCain.

If all that happened - improbable at this point - McCain could get to 270 by losing all the states Democrat John Kerry won in 2004, but holding all the Bush states plus two, from a group that includes Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada.

McCain's other path would be to win Pennsylvania - where public polls have shown Obama with a healthy lead, but where Republicans have invested a lot of resources. That would allow McCain to squeak to victory, even if he lost Virginia, as long as he won one of the four states above. McCain's Sunday night visit to New Hampshire also suggests Republicans see a glimmer of hope in a state that has just four electoral votes, but where Obama has pulled to a big lead in polls.
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Old 11-03-2008, 11:36 AM   #846
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^McCain is more deluded than I thought if he thinks he's going to win Pennsylvania or New Hampshire. There are some states I'm nervous about, but definitely not those 2.
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Old 11-03-2008, 11:41 AM   #847
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He thinks he can win NH because of what they've done for him before
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Old 11-03-2008, 11:44 AM   #848
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I think it will be decided by Ohio and PA
I've talked to a great deal of people who know people who have never voted and will be out voting tomorrow. These are the people who the polls never call.

I remain optimistic.
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Old 11-03-2008, 11:44 AM   #849
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He will someone post Irvine's old sig about undecided voters. I need to use that.
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Old 11-03-2008, 12:01 PM   #850
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I will be up early to vote tomorrow, then go about my day and hope for the best for tomorrow night. I've watched some political shows this week/weekend, but am trying not to get my hopes up either way.
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Old 11-03-2008, 12:02 PM   #851
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He thinks he can win NH because of what they've done for him before
I know his reasoning behind it, but I just don't really see it happening. I don't think the reborn neocon John McCain and his far right wackjob of a running mate are going to fly there. I know it's slightly more conservative than a lot of the other north eastern states, but it's not Texas.
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Old 11-03-2008, 12:18 PM   #852
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designed by an ad agency creative director

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Old 11-03-2008, 12:21 PM   #853
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^That's the scariest thing I've ever seen.
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Old 11-03-2008, 12:22 PM   #854
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It makes me want some Jell-o.
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Old 11-03-2008, 12:42 PM   #855
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Final Presidential Polls

This has some of the latest state-by-state polls.
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