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Old 10-31-2004, 12:32 PM   #16
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Originally posted by paxetaurora
I'm not sure that my broader point is being heard: even the very low-end estimates constitute numbers far too large. These people died tragically and unnecessarily, whether there were 8, 8,000, or 8,000,000.
Your broader point is being heard loud and clear and being dismissed.

If you won't make an allowance for any innocent victims during war, then we may as well stop arguing.
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Old 10-31-2004, 12:36 PM   #17
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Well, then, I suppose we might as well stop arguing.

I do think we're at a point where we have to start asking ourselves if any amount of "collateral damage" is acceptable. I believe it is not.

Keep in mind that our enemies in the "War on Terror" believe that the 3,000 lives lost on 9/11 are acceptable "collateral damage." I refuse to share that ground with them.
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Old 10-31-2004, 12:39 PM   #18
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Um, the 3,000 people who died in 9/11 were not "collateral damage". They were intentionally targeted.
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Old 10-31-2004, 03:59 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally posted by paxetaurora
I'm not sure that my broader point is being heard: even the very low-end estimates constitute numbers far too large. These people died tragically and unnecessarily, whether there were 8, 8,000, or 8,000,000.
Don't worry, your broader point is definitely being heard and your sentiments are very admirable. This is why it makes my blood boil when I hear other people talking about the noble goal of bringing democracy to Iraq. What's the point of having democracy if you're six foot under the ground? Ok, Saddam was a bloody tyrant who murdered his own people. But if u can't provide a proper and viable alternative, which Bush clearly hasn't done, and if u raise people's hopes only to see them dashed, then you should have the balls to admit that u have failed.

Whether it's 100,000 or a quarter of that figure this whole grotesque, bloody mess - which has NOTHING to do with 9/11 - is a damning indictment of Bush and his scumbag government.
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Old 10-31-2004, 04:14 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally posted by speedracer


Your broader point is being heard loud and clear and being dismissed.

If you won't make an allowance for any innocent victims during war, then we may as well stop arguing.
When you say it's being dismissed I presume u mean it's being dismissed by you personally? I'm sure u don't mean it's being dismissed by everyone who has read it.....even if that's the impression u give.
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Old 11-03-2004, 01:14 PM   #21
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Originally posted by nbcrusader


Lets just say it represents many people. Whether they were true civilians or non-uniformed insurgents is unknown.
100.000 insurgents is also not very believable. Anyway, who will know the real numbers when the US government refused to count the Iraq deads at the begin of the war.
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Old 11-05-2004, 07:19 AM   #22
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There is an article about this study in The Economist that addresses some points raised before in this thread:
http://www.economist.com/science/dis...ory_id=3352814

Quote:
Originally posted by A_Wanderer
Mistake One:

"A cluster sample survey was undertaken throughout Iraq during September, 2004"

It is bad practice to use a cluster sample for a distribution known to be highly asymmetrical. Since all sources agree that violence in Iraq is highly geographically concentrated, this means a cluster sample has a very high chance of exaggerating the number of deaths. If one or two of your clusters just happen to fall in a contended area it will skew everything. In fact, the study inadvertently suggests that this happened when it points out later that:

"Violent deaths were widespread, reported in 15 of 33 clusters..."

In fact, this suggest that violent deaths were not "widespread" as 18 of the 33 clusters reported zero deaths. if 54% of the clusters had no deaths then all the other deaths occurred in 46% of the clusters. If the deaths in those clusters followed a standard distribution most of the deaths would have occurred in less than 15% of the total clusters.

And bingo we see that:

"Two-thirds of all violent deaths were reported in one cluster in the city of Falluja"

(They also used a secondary grouping system (page 2, paragraph 3) that would cause further skewing.)
While it may be true that 2/3 of all violent deaths were reported in the cluster of Falluja, this is also the exact reason that the results from this cluster were not used in the statistical analysis. So, the number of 100,000 deaths does not use the information of the Falluja cluster. If it did, the result would have been much higher.

Quote:
Mistake Two:

"33 clusters of 30 households each were interviewed about household composition, births, and deaths since January, 2002."

Self-reporting in third-world countries is notoriously unreliable. In the guts of the paper (page 3, paragraph 2) they say they tried to get death certificates for at least two deaths for each cluster but they never say how many of the deaths, if any, they actually verified. It is probable that many of the deaths, especially the oddly high number of a deaths of children by violence, never actually occurred.
With the chaos that is Iraq today, it's logical that not everyone has a death certificate of someone they last. However, when you have to recall the deaths of your family members, you probably don't need to think hard about it. Various statistics professors have verified the study and they conclude that the methods used are statistically sound.
Furthermore, the method used isn't any different than they use for other public health studies. From The Economist:
Quote:
The Fallujah data-point highlights how the variable distribution of deaths in a war can make it difficult to make estimates. But Scott Zeger, the head of the department of biostatistics at Johns Hopkins, who performed the statistical analysis in the study, points out that clustered sampling is the rule rather than the exception in public-health studies, and that the patterns of deaths caused by epidemics are also very variable by location.
Marty
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Old 11-05-2004, 06:58 PM   #23
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These were the same civilians that voted for Saddam time and time again, they are not innocent in my eyes. They were put on notice over a year ago to vacate hot-spots and not to associate with insurgents. I'm sure these people were all innocent also and never did anything wrong, ask any prison guard here how many guys in his prison are guilty, he'll tell you none of them are. This is a war to eliminate an enemy. If you stand in front of this mission, you will be dealt with by our leader Bush and our superior military. Within a few short months, Iraq will be well on the way to being a peaceful Christian country. Once Iraq has gone Christian, the Gospel of Jesus will spread throughout the Middle East. The region will be at peace and millions of Arab souls will be saved through the grace of Jesus Christ.

You can be with us or against us, but Christians are done with sitting at the back of the bus. Saddam's sons learned this the hard way, let their fate be a lesson to all who don't shape up and get in line for what is coming their way.
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Old 11-05-2004, 07:40 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally posted by GOP_Catholic
These were the same civilians that voted for Saddam time and time again, they are not innocent in my eyes. They were put on notice over a year ago to vacate hot-spots and not to associate with insurgents. I'm sure these people were all innocent also and never did anything wrong, ask any prison guard here how many guys in his prison are guilty, he'll tell you none of them are. This is a war to eliminate an enemy. If you stand in front of this mission, you will be dealt with by our leader Bush and our superior military. Within a few short months, Iraq will be well on the way to being a peaceful Christian country. Once Iraq has gone Christian, the Gospel of Jesus will spread throughout the Middle East. The region will be at peace and millions of Arab souls will be saved through the grace of Jesus Christ.

You can be with us or against us, but Christians are done with sitting at the back of the bus. Saddam's sons learned this the hard way, let their fate be a lesson to all who don't shape up and get in line for what is coming their way.
unfortunately i fear that this sort of sentiment is what some of us will have to deal with on a regular basis for the next 4 (or more?!) years.

jesus must be very proud of you.

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Old 11-05-2004, 08:39 PM   #25
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Who is this bloody troll, can a mod answer me, is the IP the same as a regular who is voting, can they stop posting this obscene posts.

GOP_Catholic is a bloody troll, there is no person that could be that inflamatory on purpose, they are really trying to do so.
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Old 11-05-2004, 08:52 PM   #26
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Serenity now.

What kind of brain drain are we experiencing here?
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Old 11-05-2004, 09:02 PM   #27
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Definitely a shift into negative territory here, its like a dead weasel or a cartoon viewer
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Old 11-05-2004, 09:03 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally posted by A_Wanderer
Who is this bloody troll, can a mod answer me,

Alan Keyes
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Old 11-05-2004, 09:14 PM   #29
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Quote:
"From the point of view of the things I deeply believe in to be right and necessary, Barack Obama is wrong and taking the wicked and evil position on every single one of them.
"And I would simply say to voters of faith and conscience—the Roman Catholics, the black Christians, the evangelicals—I don't see how anyone in good conscience can cast a vote for Barack Obama."
A perfect match
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Old 11-06-2004, 10:32 AM   #30
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Quote:
Originally posted by GOP_Catholic
These were the same civilians that voted for Saddam time and time again, they are not innocent in my eyes. They were put on notice over a year ago to vacate hot-spots and not to associate with insurgents. I'm sure these people were all innocent also and never did anything wrong, ask any prison guard here how many guys in his prison are guilty, he'll tell you none of them are. This is a war to eliminate an enemy. If you stand in front of this mission, you will be dealt with by our leader Bush and our superior military. Within a few short months, Iraq will be well on the way to being a peaceful Christian country. Once Iraq has gone Christian, the Gospel of Jesus will spread throughout the Middle East. The region will be at peace and millions of Arab souls will be saved through the grace of Jesus Christ.

You can be with us or against us, but Christians are done with sitting at the back of the bus. Saddam's sons learned this the hard way, let their fate be a lesson to all who don't shape up and get in line for what is coming their way.
Why do we have to read grossly offensive and repugnant crap like this? Has the moderator nothing to say about this?
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