During the first two weeks of release, buyers haven't really heard the album yet (save for the few Internet geeks like us) and word of mouth has not spread about its quality or lack thereof. At this point, albums are usually bought on the basis of: (1) the first single, (2) marketing promotion, and (3) critic reviews. Now let's pick apart HTDAAB on these three assumptions:
(1) U2 got the first single covered with a hard-rocking uptempo song with Vertigo which was everywhere from the iPod ads, to radio play, and an eye-candy music video.
(2) U2 were not short of marketing promotion - from the publicity mileage gained from the France lost cd odyssey, to the Clinton library visit, to the TOTP and SNL performances, to the iPod ads that seemed to be shown every time on TV, and as background music to the top TV shows (like CSI).
(3) U2 literally had full control of the critic reviews. Most critics could only review HTDAAB on listening sessions setup by U2 - which mean only one listen for the whole album. No time to rewind and reply to check on some key moments of some songs or to let the songs grow or fade. Just a one-time listen, a video explaining the album, and a media kit to use as reference in writing the reviews. So the listeners reviews based on first listen and didn't have any advanced copy to personally pick apart through multiple listens in the comforts of their own home. So all the reviews were generally good.
U2 had the first two weeks covered with over 1 million in sales -the primary reason not being the actual content and quality of the album yet but more on the top three factors listed above.
Now for the next three weeks, word of mouth about album quality will start to creep in but this will just be minimal since two weeks isn't enough time to let the album grow yet. Hell, some of the buyers probably just have had Vertigo in repeat mode by this time. So the sales for the next three weeks were also helped by: (a) media mileage, and (b) holiday season.
(a) Thanks to the first two weeks, the entire America were so intrigued about this album that beat Eminem in sales and sold a million copies in two weeks. U2's strong debut was all over the news as being the highest selling first week ever by and band. People needed to know what the fuss was all about.
(b) Thanksgiving weekend and Christmas season kicked in so everyone had money. An album bought by 1 million people just had to be a safe Christmas gift.
After the intial anticipation and holiday buying spree, the album now to stand in its own two feet. After averaging over 400,000 units sold per week with chart positions of 1-2-2-5-3 in its first five weeks, the post-holiday hangover had U2 drop 11 places and sell only 90,000 units in its 6th week! The next week saw another drop with sales of only 60,000.
U2 tried to right the ship by releasing their second single "All Because Of You" to MTV while indicators show that it had been getting increased radio airply (not that anyone listens to the radio these days). Despite the second single, there was no push - just another pull down. U2 got a 20% drop to 48,000 in sales all despite a second single!
My conclusion is that HTDAAB is an album in the vein of Zooropa and POP - meaning it doesn't quite appeal to American tastes as much. Let's call a spade a spade and be blunt about it - the high intitial sales weren't a product of album acceptance but a product of heavy marketing and holiday sales. If the quality were really desireable, word on mouth should have been spreading now with every friend telling their other friend to buy HTDAAB.
Let's contrast HTDAAB to American Idiot by Green Day whose album has been out for 17 weeks now (around two months earlier than HTDAAB) and is only now starting to get stronger (2-1-1 chart positions the last three weeks!). I'd say Green Day is getting stronger as people are realizing that it is a great album, while HTDAAB is in the abrupt decline as people are realizing that it doesn't fit their tastes.
Post-Christmas sales to me would be the indication of HTDAAB's "leg" and longevity. It would indicate whether the album would really be accepted on its own merit outside of marketing. Now after three weeks, there already seems to be a trend and Americans are rejecting HTDAAB.
So what do you guys think about this analysis? What elements in HTDAAB make it not as accepted in America as Green Day? Do you agree that HTDAAB is more on the vein of POP and Zooropa as opposed to the American-friendly Joshua Tree and ATYCLB? How would you characterize American musical tastes?
Cheers,
J
the tour should help too....
) from Canada, Australia, even some from U.S. release albums/singles in Europe first... later (a month, a week...) in U.S.
