Guess ATYCLB US Sales for Week 67

[ChangeTheTemperature]

This will be the week where we will see if there is any Superbowl effect for ATYCLB.

About 80 Million people saw U2's performance.
It is hard to figure out how much sales will go up. Will the Superbowl performance have more effect than an Album of the Year Grammy? Hard to tell.

Anyways before Hits starts reporting sales tomorrow. My prediction is:

Sales: 36,000 (up from 19,500 last week)
Chart placing: 27th

 

[Solar Supernova]

How did Aerosmith, Britney, and NSYNC's sales go after last years Super Bowl performance? Perhaps with that knowledge we could estimate more closely? Also, what was the tv rating for their halftime segment? was it high? All these things could be interesting factors in predicting.

 

[STING2]

I know the TV rating at halftime was the 96% of the games rating or in general the same. 6 times that of the Playboy girls on NBC. As for a prediction, it really is anyone's guess. For the Grammy awards last year, sales nearly doubled over the previous week.

 

[mike63]

Originally posted by Solar Supernova:
How did Aerosmith, Britney, and NSYNC's sales go after last years Super Bowl performance? Perhaps with that knowledge we could estimate more closely? Also, what was the tv rating for their halftime segment? was it high? All these things could be interesting factors in predicting.

I undestand that halftime viewing was 47% of the peak viewing, so around 45+ million at least. BUT, to most of the audience, no new songs so probably not a massive gain - not yet anyway. I estimate top 30 this week - and then after the Grammy awards - top 10
. hrey, if Linkin Park can have a re-birth, why not ther BEST band in the world ????

OASIS as support in Europe s/be cool


Mike

 

[WHYWHY]

Well....in my humble, and most likely incorrect opinion...I'd say sales of 46,700 and a chart placing between 18 and 28....
Hmmmm........I love these type of guessing games!

Bless ya!
WHYWHY

 

[STING2]

Actually it was 96% of those that were attually watching the Superbowl game, which may have been 47% of everyone watching all TV. But I do know that the vast majority that were watching the game, watched the halftime as well.

 

[Danospano]

I think you're greatly underestimating the impact of the Super Bowl performance.

*If 80 million Americans watched the halftime show, I'd say that at least half thought it was a good performance (40 million).

*I'm guessing that 3 million of those viewers already have the album (based on estimated sales figures.

*That leaves us with 37 million potential buyers. If just 1 in 1500 viewers actually go out and buy the album, U2 will have an additional 25,000 albums added on to number they would have probably sold without the Super Bowl.

I'm guessing that U2 will sell anywhere from 50,000-60,000 albums in week 67. That would place them anywhere between #10-#20 on Hitsdailydouble, or #15-#30 on Billboard.

 

[mike63]

No 25 on billboard with 57, 500 sales .

Mike

 

[z edge]

I estimate that 10% of those that watched the superbowl will go and buy the album, but it will come in at #2 on the billboard 200-second only to CREED!

 

[womanfish]

Well, I am not quite as optimistic about the sales effect. I will say they will rise to number 45. I think that means about 40,000 in sales. I just can't believe that a Jennifer Lopez remix album is supposed to be number 1 this week. Can Americas taste really be this bad?!?!

 

[STING2]

Hitsdailydouble is now reporting that U2 "Scored a Touchdown last week" and are the big winner. Their at #25 now with 20,563 and almost 44% reporting. I hope they continue to improve. They started out at #38 earlier today. It would be great if they actually did crack the top 20 on Billboard charts! They will be highlighted as the greatest gainer this week!

 

[STING2]

With 62% in at hitsdailydouble, ATYCLB is now at #22 with 31,000 copies. If this projection continues like this, ATYCLB will sell 50,250 copies for the week! Thats a whopping 150% increase over last week! Of course, Billboard soundscan and Hits often differ in their numbers but are usually roughly the same. So here's hope for the top 20 and 50,000 copies sold! This might be the largest single week percentage increase U2 has ever had on the USA charts.

 

[jezebel]

Originally posted by womanfish:
Can Americas taste really be this bad?!?!

yes

 

[Popmartijn]

Hello,

I just got this from Hitsdailydouble. With 42% in U2 has got 19,335 and they are at #26. Based on this info, the record will have probably sold about 45,000 copies last week.

Oh, and J-ho is indeed at #1 (with around 81K copies sold).

Sometimes I'd like to quote a sig from someone on the RROnline forum: The US is ignorant when it comes to music...

Marty


------------------
People criticize me but I know it's not the end
I try to kick the truth, not just to make friends

Spearhead - People In Tha Middle

 

[sharky]

Not to derail this thread, but with a huge Super Bowl sales spike, a Grammy performance and the potential of several awards, does anyone think this momentum could carry the band in to the Top 10, if not #1?

 

[z edge]

You didn't read my post above Sharky, I was serious

 

[womanfish]

Well Creed has been number 2 for three weeks now under Alan Jackson. This week it looks like Creed will drop to number three.

As for the Grammy momentum carrying them all the way to the top? It would be so incredible if they only hit number 3 with the albums debut underneath 2 big name rap artists and then almost a year and a half later hit number 1. It would be pretty sweet indeed

In fact, I think the rap artists were Jay-Z and Outkast. And doctorwho pointed out something funny a couple weeks ago. Both of those guys have released ANOTHER album since then and U2's is not only out-selling their first albums, but now also their second albums almost 67 weeks later!!

Do I think they will hit number 1 - No. Why? Well it looks like the same talentless bitch that kept the Best of 80-90 out of the number 1 spot, Alanis Morrissette, will be releasing her album right around Grammy time. Not that I think her album will do all that great because she is, and should be, old news. But with no other real big name releases coming out in the near future, she definitely will be up there on the charts.

If U2 wins a few grammys including album of the year, I would expect them to bounce into the top ten but not number 1 or even the top 3 for that matter.

My prediction is they will win Rock album of the year, Album of the year, and Pop Vocal performance of the year and will increase their sales by about 125 - 150% the following week which will be at about 35 - 40,000 copies, giving them sales of around 90 - 115,000. Right now that would pop them into the top 3, but I think that there will be an overall increase after the grammys and they will be around number 5 or so.

This is a much higher prediction than I would have given just 2 weeks ago. If they were sitting at number 70 going into the grammys which is what I was expecting, I would think they would only jump up into the top 20, but since the SB has already boosted them, they can definitely expect a little better showing.



[This message has been edited by womanfish (edited 02-12-2002).]

 

[STING2]

Well the results from hitsdailydouble.com are in and ATYCLB fell short of the 51,000 it was projected to sell earlier. It ended up with a little over 44,000 and was actually pushed backed to #27. Of course this is hits and the soundscan figures will be out tomorrow. Still, it looks like their sales went up 100% this week or more than doubled.

 

[womanfish]

Yep, if we were to go by Hitsnumbers, they went up almost 120% in sales. Billboard usually has them at about 1,000 or so less sold and about 5 or so spots lower on their chart. I predict they will be around number 33 on the Billboard chart. That is an awesome jump!!!

 

[womanfish]

check out this funny and informative article from hits:

Barry's Top Five and U2's Feeling
Its Super Sunday

February 12, 2002

She came, she remixed, she conquered. Epic's J.Lo made a monumental return to the album chart this week, as her collection of remixes debuted solidly at #1.
"What can you say about this artist?" queried HMV's Jeff Davidson, who's always good for a compelling retailer quote. "J.Lo really sold well for us this week."

Of course, J.Lo's return wasn't the only booty shaking up this week's Top Five. Arista's Barry Manilow?that's right, we said ARISTA'S BARRY MANILOW?debuted at a whopping #3, thanks to the ultimate TV campaign for the Ultimate Manilow.

"What can you say about this artist?" queried Davidson, as he tuned to coverage of his favorite Olympic sport, curling. "Barry really sold well for us this week."

Other impressive debuts include: BNA's Now-like compilation, Totally Country, at #11 and Epic's live Sade package at #12.

And, as long as we're talking impressive, check out the HUGE sales increase for U2's All That You Can't Leave Behind. Can you say, "Millions and millions of brain-numbed Americans mindlessly tuning into a football game and getting exposed to what some are calling the best rock & roll performance on television ever"?

"What can you say about this band?" queried HMV's Davidson. "U2 really sold well for us this week."

Besides J.Lo at #1, and Barry at #3, this week's Top Five is rounded out by Arista Nashville's Alan Jackson at #2, Wind-up's Creed at #4 and Warner Bros.' Linkin Park at #5.

"What can you say about this story?" queried Davidson. "Billboard is really going to sell well this week."

 

[ChangeTheTemperature]

Well, the numbers are in. For a change the soundscan numbers were above Hits numbers.

Sales: 46,441 (up from 19174 last week)
Position: 25

Great jump let's hope sales don't drop too much before the Grammy's

 

[womanfish]

Here's a follow-up to my grammy comment above.

The grammy awards are on the 27th. And we won't see any sales effect until the following weeks chart. But my question is this: with the grammys being held on a Wednesday, how does that affect the sales? This means people have Thursday, Friday, Sat. to go out and buy the big winners albums. And then the big sales would continue for the following week as well. I think it's a good thing because it will probably result in a prolonged boost up the charts (if U2 wins any big awards). But I think it does take away the one BIG surge that would take them to the top. So my prediction of number 5 or 6 my be high because it seems that the sales will be split.

 

[STING2]

The easy answer to your question is to look at what happened last year. Grammy's were on a Wendsday night then to. U2 got a small increase the falling week to 49,000 copies and then the massive surge came two weeks later with over 80,000 in sales and boost up to #11!

 

[sharky]

And last year's Grammy boost came off of three Grammy wins for one song. If they win a few Grammys for songs and a few Grammys for the entire album, I think people will be more likely to go out and buy it than last year when only "Beautiful Day" was recognized.

 

[U2002revolution!]

Can Americas taste really be this bad?!?![/B]

Oh shhhh it, if not for America there would be no RocknRoll

to be potically correct only Americans can say America has bad taste, y'know just like only like black ppl can call each others niggers and its not not as acceptable for a guy to call a girl a bitch as it is for a girl too .....ok, yeah i guess i've taken this a bit to far *wonders off thinking to self*


------------------
' I want to run
I want to hide
I want to tear down the walls
That hold me inside
I want to reach out
And touch the flame
Where the streets have no name. . .'
.:. U2: Rock's Unbreakable Heart!

Love is...cold steel/Fingers too numb to feel/Squeeze the handle/Blow out the candle
Love is blindness.../A little death/Without mourning/No call/And no warning...

[Thanks M.P.]