forecasting the sales from now until march - U2 Feedback

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Old 01-05-2002, 06:13 PM   #1
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forecasting the sales from now until march

with the grammy nominations now out and u2 being the most mentioned act out of all of them, how do you think this will effect sales?

if they do win big at the grammies or even JUST album of the year, will it boost their sales so they get into the top 20 or so? whats your thoughts?

oh, and now do we think this album has a good shot at 4 million sold in the us alone?

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Old 01-05-2002, 11:21 PM   #2
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I think that sales will definitely increase because of the Grammy nominations. I think that many people, after hearing Walk On so much after 9/11, were interested in U2 but maybe not enough to buy the album. I think the Grammy nods will encourage the people to see the quality of the album. I think a whole new group of people will get to experience the U2 joy.

I'll be crossing my fingers for Grammy wins!

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Old 01-06-2002, 11:16 PM   #3
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Originally, I thought that if ATYCLB could "survive" through this past holiday season, that this could give it sales around 3.3 million before the album slowly fell from the charts.

The first part of that prediction came through. I estimate sales at 40,000 copies in the U.S. in Week 61. This may seem high, since it was "post-Christmas" but last year, Christmas week still saw strong sales. This is due to some last minute holiday shopping (recall, Christmas was on a Tuesday, meaning Monday's sales counted for Week 61) and kids were off from school and people from work. As such, sales don't drop quite as much as expected from the pre-Christmas week to Christmas week. The true post-Christmas week, which will be this week (or Week 62 in the U.S.) will see sales return to normal levels.

Therefore, with my estimate of 40,000 copies sold in the U.S., this puts U.S. sales at 3.3 million copies.

However, instead of the album now slowly fading from the charts, it appears U2 will give the album a new life, by their appearances at the Super Bowl and at the Grammies. Plus, sales this week might be strong because U2 was featured on some New Year's TV celebrations.

And now that U2 has received a whopping 8 Grammy nods and will most likely win at least a few Grammies, and with the Rolling Stone magazine sweep as well as SPIN magazine's "Band of the Year" titles, ATYCLB may stay strong, floating between positions #50-85 through March. That's another 12 weeks with sales of at least 20,000 copies per week, meaning another 250,000 copies sold. There may also be a few spikes in there after the Super Bowl and Grammies. This could very well put ATYCLB at 3.6 million copies sold before it finally starts to fall from the Top 100.

Now, if there is another hit song from the album, ATYCLB may linger even longer in the Top 100. If so, this should bring it to the 3.7 to 3.9 million mark - hopefully enough to obtain 4x Platinum status before the album truly falls out of the Top 200. If this happens, I will be incredibly elated. While I wanted 3x Platinum, I truly hope ATYCLB hits 4x Platinum before it falls off the charts. And there's a chance - albeit with a bit of luck - that this could happen.

However, rather that push for that 4x Platinum mark just yet, for now, I'll stay conservative and state that I predict another 250,000 copies sold by the end of March, bringing total U.S. sales to just under 3.6 million copies.
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Old 01-07-2002, 10:44 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally posted by doctorwho:
The first part of that prediction came through. I estimate sales at 40,000 copies in the U.S. in Week 61. This may seem high, since it was "post-Christmas" but last year, Christmas week still saw strong sales.
Hello doctorwho,

I don't know if this substantiates your claim of 40,000 copies or not, but last week the #57 record (Destiny's Child's Survivor) sold 55,300 copies. U2 was 17 positions lower. I have not much knowledge of the US charts, so is 40,000 in line with this number?

C ya!

Marty

P.S. Have you seen the list of U2's singles in the Dutch charts?



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Old 01-07-2002, 11:18 AM   #5
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thanks Popmartjan,
YES! this would put U2 at about 40,000. In the U.S. charts it is usually about 800 to 1000 copies per chart position difference outside the top 20 and before the bottom 100-200. Good estimate doctorwho.
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Old 01-07-2002, 11:24 AM   #6
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Womanfish,

Here's another one on your terrain, the online shops: I saw today that ATYCLB was in the top 10 or top 5 of Amazon's current bestsellers. Any predictions for the charts...


And on a less serious note: U2 is again in the top 50 of Hitsdailydouble, at #36. The catch? Only 0.16% is counted (which explains why The Strokes are #1 with 239 copies sold)

C ya!

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Old 01-07-2002, 12:08 PM   #7
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Yeah, I just noticed that Hitsdailydouble thing myself. Oh well, it's fun to see for a little while.

Yes it's very interesting about Amazon. As I have noted in the past, online sales are in no way an indicator of chart position, but they are usually a good indicator of trends for a particular artist. U2 has been down in the 30's for the past month or so on Amazon. This past week they have been bumping around between #20 and #30. Now the test is if they stay in Amazon's top 10 for at least a few days or more. If so I would say it bodes well for an increase on the Billboard charts as well.
But this is what we are expecting. I mean, the grammy noms will produce a bit of a sales blip this coming week. How big of a blip is the question. I predict around 10-15 position rise. You can also look for a big gain for India.Aire (however you spell it)

p.s. - with 9% in at hits, U2 is now off the top 50 chart

[This message has been edited by womanfish (edited 01-07-2002).]
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Old 01-07-2002, 04:03 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally posted by womanfish:
p.s. - with 9% in at hits, U2 is now off the top 50 chart
And with 47.55% in U2 is at #45 with estimated sales of 23,000. IMO everything above 20,000 is good so no complaining here. (As 20,000 for 50 weeks makes 1 million which is platinum).

C ya!

Marty


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Old 01-07-2002, 05:04 PM   #9
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what's great about that is that they are over 20,000 with only 46% in. That means they will sell over 40,000 this week and undoubtedly move up in the U.S. charts. Yeah!!
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Old 01-07-2002, 05:07 PM   #10
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what's great about that is that they are over 20,000 with only 46% in. That means they will sell over 40,000 this week and undoubtedly move up in the U.S. charts. Yeah!!
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