Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter Here (AKA New Album Speculation)

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Earnie Shavers said:
And for a May release – anytime in May - they wouldn’t be making any noise about it right now anyway. We would be in that calm before the storm phase, which perhaps, if we’re lucky, might be broken by some cock up leak of information. But… the formal storm isn’t due yet.
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Firstly, great post :up:
Secondly, if the current silence is to be expected, when should we expect it to be broken?
If the album is out in early-mid may (before the US dates), then the latest a single would come out would be... mid april? So at latest an announcement for that would come a week beforehand, so maybe we'll get confirmation (if u2 decide to release) a couple of weeks into april?
Or, maybe they'll do something really out of the blue, like announce everything the same day that they release the lead single? Would definitely help sales, that's for sure :hmm:
 
*IF* *IF* *IF*

It all really depends on whether it really is late May, or earlier. And whether or not they are sticking to a No Line-ish timeline, or something tighter. And what they think about the SA leg and the first single.

If it's early-mid May, they're already 'inside' the No Line timeline. We would have had the album title and release date announcement by now - only just - but not the single name/date or any other album details like tracklisting/cover art, all of that. Those wouldn't be coming till around the time they hit SA. So it is either not early-mid May, or they are tightening it up for a bigger bang. In which case, yes, you might get "New Album Called XXXXX Out in Six Weeks. New Single Called XXXXX to debut tomorrow" a few days before they hit SA. Perhaps with some kind of TV performance or other stunt tied in. There's also a 5-6 day gap smack in the middle of the SA leg that would allow for a quick promo run to LA or NYC, and possibly even a small cross-Atlantic window after the SA leg, before the Spider-man shutdown.

If it's Late May, and on the No Line timeline, then album announcement before the SA leg. Single at some point during, or just after that leg. If its a shorter timeline, then similarly, they might bunch those together, again during or just after SA. And again, there's a gap in the middle for something around the single, possible gap at the end for shooting to London, and they can handle anything US from New York while juggling Spider-man at the same time.

So I reckon we're 50/50 for another 10 days, then it plummets significantly with every day following. If they get on the plane to Santiago having given up nothing, then yeah, give up ALL hope.
 
Maybe on May 21st they'll announce something... that week the 360 tour re-launches from my home town and almost backyard, Estadio Nacional, Santiago, Chile :hyper:
 
The reason I believe there will be no album isn't because we haven't heard an announcement yet... it's because there's no chatter. It's been dead silent for a long time now. Nothing. Not a peep.

Zero hyperbole from bono? No slips from major, respected journalists? No slip up from the studio? If they're releasing in may, they would have to be getting ready to press and manufacture the album fairly soon, wouldn't they? May is like 50 days away.
 
I think if Spiderman is actually affecting anything U2-related, it's keeping Bono too busy to be blathering his usual hype and hyperbole.

Which is a good thing.

But to be honest, my initial optimism is starting to fade a bit.
 
Headache in a Suitcase said:
The reason I believe there will be no album isn't because we haven't heard an announcement yet... it's because there's no chatter. It's been dead silent for a long time now. Nothing. Not a peep.

Zero hyperbole from bono? No slips from major, respected journalists? No slip up from the studio? If they're releasing in may, they would have to be getting ready to press and manufacture the album fairly soon, wouldn't they? May is like 50 days away.
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This is now my guess, too. I am beginning to think that when Edge was quoted as calling the Danger Mouse work demos, it was not an error on the journalist's part. My guess is they took a breather, decided the work wasn't what they wanted, and thus the songs that could have been finished for an album became demos.

Also, with all the Spider-Man work Bono and Edge need to do, I think this also led to them abandoning the "quick" turnaround time of getting an album out before the next American leg.

I'll be really happy if I am wrong about this, but looking at U2's past track record and lack of info. at this point, this is where I'm now leaning.
 
but all the Spiderman stuff MUST STOP, because in 2 weeks the tour restarts... they HAVE to focus on U2 again, and I think they know they wont tour those songs exclusively, and want to play a few ones on the US leg, or maybe starting from SouthAmerica

I really think that on Monday March 21st we'll know something, and maybe on the 25th, we'll hear something
 
Well, the Spiderman work isn't going to stop, and it's not like Bono's not going to join them on tour. He'll do what he has to do remotely and fly back to NYC when he can. :shrug:
 
Earnie Shavers said:
*IF* *IF* *IF*

It all really depends on whether it really is late May, or earlier. And whether or not they are sticking to a No Line-ish timeline, or something tighter. And what they think about the SA leg and the first single.

If it's early-mid May, they're already 'inside' the No Line timeline. We would have had the album title and release date announcement by now - only just - but not the single name/date or any other album details like tracklisting/cover art, all of that. Those wouldn't be coming till around the time they hit SA. So it is either not early-mid May, or they are tightening it up for a bigger bang. In which case, yes, you might get "New Album Called XXXXX Out in Six Weeks. New Single Called XXXXX to debut tomorrow" a few days before they hit SA. Perhaps with some kind of TV performance or other stunt tied in. There's also a 5-6 day gap smack in the middle of the SA leg that would allow for a quick promo run to LA or NYC, and possibly even a small cross-Atlantic window after the SA leg, before the Spider-man shutdown.

If it's Late May, and on the No Line timeline, then album announcement before the SA leg. Single at some point during, or just after that leg. If its a shorter timeline, then similarly, they might bunch those together, again during or just after SA. And again, there's a gap in the middle for something around the single, possible gap at the end for shooting to London, and they can handle anything US from New York while juggling Spider-man at the same time.

So I reckon we're 50/50 for another 10 days, then it plummets significantly with every day following. If they get on the plane to Santiago having given up nothing, then yeah, give up ALL hope.
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Good points, but going on what you say, i'd suggest we shouldn't give up all hope until the week after the SA tour - if Amazon and FNAC are right about a late may release, and u2 bunches all announcements together, then it's very possible that we won't hear anything until mid to late April.
 
BVS said:
Why thank you, I worked very hard on that one...

I would just like to thank Interference, those that have stuck by my side, the mods, the trolls, I would like to thank U2 for without them we wouldn't be here...

oh wait, too much?
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Maybe a tad. :wink:
 
pepokiss said:
but all the Spiderman stuff MUST STOP, because in 2 weeks the tour restarts... they HAVE to focus on U2 again, and I think they know they wont tour those songs exclusively, and want to play a few ones on the US leg, or maybe starting from SouthAmerica

I really think that on Monday March 21st we'll know something, and maybe on the 25th, we'll hear something
Click to expand...

But they could just go play the same setlist in SA that they've been playing (with a couple news songs rotating-- "North Star", "Mercy", etc.) Then, come back to the US to work on Spider-Man even more before the NA tour. Then on the NA tour, they'd have to change things up a bit more. They could ditch "Miss Sarajevo" and "In A Little While" and add in a couple of rarities, but keep everything else the same.

Then, I think they could take a year off to finish an album and come back to play arenas supporting the new album with a NEW theme. The thing that's always bugged me is that it doesn't seem likely that U2 would promote a new album with the same 360 tour theme in NA only. I guess they could add Japan, but then what? Didn't they tweak the theme even for Lovetown? Seems more likely they'd want to take a bit of time off and come back with a new theme. Maybe even sell it as an "Evening With U2" thing or some kind of Anniversary celebration thing.

I hope the above isn't the case, but it very well could be.
 
Why would a retailer have this info already is the question. And why only this one? And why a discarded album title? I don't buy it.

Earnie, most of your points are well-said, but I'm not so sure the band has learned any lessons about promotion. The backpedalling we've seen on No Net from Bono seemed to focus more on the writing, the "difficulty" of the material, the number if songs--anything but the way it was marketed or the singles that were chosen, or that they tried to Frankenstein wannabe radio hits into a thematically focused album at a later stage. Thus leads me to believe that they have no clue what the theoretical problem is.

So this lack of hype is likely due more to external factors (helping out with Spider-Man, getting ready for the next leg of the tour) than any internal ones. And of course, if there IS an album coming out soon, they have a constrained window because of the tour, and will probably be spending a good deal of time restructuring the setlist and the visuals, even if we don't see that new stuff until Mexico City.
 
Physical retailers would absolutely have solid, confirmed info now for May releases, and would have done for some time. A whole month - not title by title - is sold in and bought up at once, and over a few phases. A kind of estimate/placeholder for planning and budgeting (on both sides), and then a locked in actual sale figure - an initial ship and sometimes agreement on a larger twelve week figure - and for May that would be completely locked in by the end of March at the latest. Its in everyones best interests for as much of that to be done as early as possible. Budgetary planning is tricky for a retailer - especially these days - and for a distributor to come in late with something, they risk not getting the kind of numbers they want. Universal would have been flagging a "possible U2 release in Q2" from the second it was half likely, and confirmed it to retailers the minute the band did to them. Particularly given that they've got GaGa that month as well.

Partly for secrecy, and partly just because U2 were probably still figuring it out, the retailers might know fuck all about the actual release (title etc) until we do. Although it would be interesting to see what kind of blind retailer confidence there is with U2 now. For someone like GaGa, that would be completely fine. The retailer would be confident in ordering up a crazy amount, completely blind to any detail, having heard nothing. For an artist Universal would have to sell to the retailer, they'll give them as much as they can (including an early listen if they can.)

For U2? Well, retailers might feel everything was a bit overboard with No Line, have gone a bit gun-shy on them, and Universal might have to give them a bit of a nudge to buy up a U2-sized amount of this. One or two key people might have heard some. But more likely than not, they've just got -U2/May 27- and they've bought against the strength of U2. Maybe just with some sale-or-return agreements :wink:
 
I almost feel like they need to release one more BOMBish album, with cockrocking anthems and WalkOns and whatnot, and have the album TANK, just so they can finally put to rest this "biggest band on earth" bullshit, come to terms with their own decreased relevance, see that NLOTH wasn't a "flop" because it was "too complex", and then finally come to that fork in the road where they can (A) pack it in....or (B) start making the music they always wanted to make.

I'm pretty confident they would choose plan B. After all, how many times can they chase Beautiful Day and Vertigo? At some point, things will have to change.
 
ozeeko said:
I almost feel like they need to release one more BOMBish album, with cockrocking anthems and WalkOns and whatnot, and have the album TANK, just so they can finally put to rest this "biggest band on earth" bullshit, come to terms with their own decreased relevance, see that NLOTH wasn't a "flop" because it was "too complex", and then finally come to that fork in the road where they can (A) pack it in....or (B) start making the music they always wanted to make.

I'm pretty confident they would choose plan B. After all, how many times can they chase Beautiful Day and Vertigo? At some point, things will have to change.
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I think to a certain extent, they know that already. I was actually really happy that Boots and CT didn't sell well, because for me they were incredibly safe tracks - u2 took the formula for previous hits and tried to transplant it into new songs, as opposed to writing good tunes that did well on their own merit.

It makes me think that they know they can't be as artificial anymore, and that they can't be doing the same old thing anymore - they must know by now that they have to write fresh, exciting, stands-on-its-own-two-feet kind of music. If they are looking to write hits, they'll be a lot more organic and special than what we would be getting had Boots been successful.
 
Earnie Shavers said:
Physical retailers would absolutely have solid, confirmed info now for May releases, and would have done for some time. A whole month - not title by title - is sold in and bought up at once, and over a few phases. A kind of estimate/placeholder for planning and budgeting (on both sides), and then a locked in actual sale figure - an initial ship and sometimes agreement on a larger twelve week figure - and for May that would be completely locked in by the end of March at the latest. Its in everyones best interests for as much of that to be done as early as possible. Budgetary planning is tricky for a retailer - especially these days - and for a distributor to come in late with something, they risk not getting the kind of numbers they want. Universal would have been flagging a "possible U2 release in Q2" from the second it was half likely, and confirmed it to retailers the minute the band did to them. Particularly given that they've got GaGa that month as well.

Partly for secrecy, and partly just because U2 were probably still figuring it out, the retailers might know fuck all about the actual release (title etc) until we do. Although it would be interesting to see what kind of blind retailer confidence there is with U2 now. For someone like GaGa, that would be completely fine. The retailer would be confident in ordering up a crazy amount, completely blind to any detail, having heard nothing. For an artist Universal would have to sell to the retailer, they'll give them as much as they can (including an early listen if they can.)

For U2? Well, retailers might feel everything was a bit overboard with No Line, have gone a bit gun-shy on them, and Universal might have to give them a bit of a nudge to buy up a U2-sized amount of this. One or two key people might have heard some. But more likely than not, they've just got -U2/May 27- and they've bought against the strength of U2. Maybe just with some sale-or-return agreements :wink:
Click to expand...

Very interesting. Does this mean that an album has been confirmed at this point or does the band still have the ability to change their mind and not release it? Or is it still possible that no decisions have been made either way?

As for Lady Gaga: I thought her album must already be out by now, because the weekly newsletters I get from Interscope have been promoting Born This Way for weeks already, and it's not even going to be out until May. U2 could be hyping it up like that, but they're not. Hmm.
 
Rachel D. said:
Very interesting. Does this mean that an album has been confirmed at this point or does the band still have the ability to change their mind and not release it? Or is it still possible that no decisions have been made either way?
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That's a good question - i wonder how long u2 can wait before they have to commit to release?
 
JamietheEdgefan said:
I think to a certain extent, they know that already. I was actually really happy that Boots and CT didn't sell well, because for me they were incredibly safe tracks - u2 took the formula for previous hits and tried to transplant it into new songs, as opposed to writing good tunes that did well on their own merit.
Click to expand...

Can you explain how CT was "safe", and which hit did it take its formula from?
 
this is all assuming we're getting a physical release... and not some internet only dealie
 
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