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Old 01-06-2002, 03:18 AM   #1
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A rise on the charts imminent?

I would have to believe that U2 will get a nice pop on the Billboard charts this week in light of the Grammy nominations (and, to a lesser extent, the Rolling Stone awards sweep). Moreover, there's very few new releases in the post Christmas season and the holiday (seasonal) albums are sure to plummet in sales. U2 would surpass these albums even with no news.

So what's the prediction for next week? I think U2 should be able to mount a rise of 10-15 spots (even if actual sales figures decline due to industry-wide sales decline in the post-Christmas season). I'd say a rise to #60 would be reasonable. Thoughts?
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Old 01-06-2002, 06:33 AM   #2
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I also expect a rise on the UK charts - might even re-enter the top 50.

Mike
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Old 01-06-2002, 08:21 AM   #3
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Hello,

I think that whatever rise there will be for the week 62 charts, it will largely not be because of the Grammy nominations. The nominations were announced on Friday, so almost at the end of the week (and I think many did not hear of it before Saturday). But I do expect a rise starting week 63 as the nomination effect is in full swing, a few weeks later there is the Superbowl and a few weeks after that there is hopefully the Grammy effect.
U2 might even release a new single to take advance of the renewed interest. However, the success of the single could be overshadowed by the performance of older singles (especially Stuck) when those songs win at the Grammy's. That's what happened last year, when Walk On struggled for airplay as Beautiful Day became a huge hit after the Grammy's.
Nevertheless, I think U2 will perform well these next couple of months.

C ya!

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Old 01-06-2002, 02:57 PM   #4
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On the UK charts ATYCLB rises to 56 this week - up 8 places. When you look what is ahead of ATYCLB, greatest hits of the Doors ewtc, not such a great performance. Still needs a major marketing push to re-launch the album in the UK.

Mike

PS Both Elevation & Rattle & Hum go up in the Video/DVD chart though
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Old 01-09-2002, 07:15 PM   #5
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How does ATYCLB fare in terms of sales and chart positions compared albums like "Supernatural" or "Miseducation of Lauryn Hill." The reason I ask is I remember both of these albums dominating the Grammys like U2 will this year. I just wondered what the sales of those albums are like compared to U2. Where were Santana and Hill in the charts when their albums got the Grammy attention? How many did the sell before the Grammys and after? Between this year and last year U2 has in effect 11 nominations. Has any other album ever had that many? I don't know much about the charts but could the CD sell another 2 or 3 million copies in the next year? I know thats a lot of questions but I am suddenly very curious!
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Old 01-09-2002, 09:08 PM   #6
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wow that is a lot of questions and I will not answer them It would take quite a bit of digging to figure that out, but it would be quite interesting.

From what I can remember Supernatural sold a lot more copies than ATYCLB has. I would say between 6 and 8 million. I would say Lauren Hill is probably pretty close to U2's sales, but probably a little higher.

What really stumps me is where they were on the charts when they received the nominations. I have no idea. An album always receives a boost after winning album of the year, it turned the Gold selling Stealy Dan album platinum plus, and I think it did even more for the albums you are asking about since those albums were actually good.

U2's has been out a long time, I can see it getting a big boost, but I don't see it selling millions more. The way it sits right now, they have sold 3.3 to consumers, the album will inevitably be certified 4 times platinum after all is said and done. If everything goes REALLY well they could see a 5 times platinum certification at some point in the future. That is just my opinion, anyone have any real facts?
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Old 01-18-2002, 11:53 AM   #7
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Hawkfire,

here is some new and interesting info on a few past grammy winning albums. I took out the parts that were of sales interest:

>The Album of the Year title is not always bestowed upon the biggest-selling nominee,
as evidenced by the Grammy win posted by Steely Dan's Two Against Nature (996,000
copies sold to date) over Eminem's The Marshall Mathers LP (8.64 million) last year. But the Recording Academy has, in the last decade, chosen such notable sellers as
Santana's Supernatural (10.96 million), Celine Dion's Falling Into You (10.43 million) and Alanis Morissette's Jagged Little Pill (13.89 million) for Album of the Year.>

>Regardless of who takes home the Grammy Award for Album of the Year, the winner is
sure to see his or her sales spike upward the week immediately following the
ceremony.

Last year, sales of Steely Dan's Two Against Nature shot up from just 3,000 copies
the week before the Grammys to more than 31,000 copies the week after, a jump that
catapulted the reunion LP to #54 on the Billboard 200 albums chart. Santana's
Supernatural was already the #1 album the week before the Grammy Awards were
handed out in 2000, but after it was named Album of the Year, sales more than
doubled from a respectable 219,000 copies the previous week to a mammoth 583,000
copies the week following the win.>

What I also find interesting about this article is that in February, 31,000 copies sold was only enough to get steely dan into the number 54 position. Right now U2 sits at number 39 with 26,000 copies sold. but maybe the whole chart had higher numbers that week because of the grammy effect, we shall see what happens with our boys. They obviously aren't going into it at number 1 like Santana either.

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Old 01-19-2002, 03:34 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally posted by womanfish:
What I also find interesting about this article is that in February, 31,000 copies sold was only enough to get steely dan into the number 54 position. Right now U2 sits at number 39 with 26,000 copies sold. but maybe the whole chart had higher numbers that week because of the grammy effect, we shall see what happens with our boys. They obviously aren't going into it at number 1 like Santana either.
Thanks, Womanfish, for the sales and chart data. I was curious about the Grammy effect.

You are right, though, in your statement concerning sales - they are low.

I have some of last year's SoundScan numbers. For the week ending Jan. 14th last year (which is equivalent to this past week now - when U2 appeared at #39 on the charts), the #39 album sold 37,888 copies. For the week ending Jan. 28th, the #39 album sold 35,595 copies.

This time last year, with sales of 26,000 copies, an album would have ranked #58. A few weeks later (the week ending Jan. 28th) the album with the same level of sales would have ranked #53.

Those sales and chart positions are far more typical of what I've observed in the past. Therefore, with sales of only 26,000 copies, clearly ATYCLB is rather high on the charts. The low sales can be attributed to the economy and the lack of strong new material. U2 can't complain though - to have their album at #39 with weekly sales of 26,000 copies is outstanding, especially since the album has already been out for 63 weeks. But for more recent releases, these type of low sales figures may be disheartening.

One person who participates on the Interference chat-group stated he believes that ATYCLB will eventually rebound all the way to #1. If ATYCLB does win album of the year, I can easily see it doubling, tripling, even quadrupling in sales. However, this would only give it 80-100,000 copies sold in that particular week, which is usually NOT enough to achieve a #1 ranking. Unless ATYCLB gets an unexpected HUGE boost from the Super Bowl, which is then further magnified by some big Grammy wins, I don't think ATYCLB will even return to the Top 10 (it might appear in the Top 20 for a token week) let alone #1.
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Old 01-22-2002, 09:35 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally posted by doctorwho:


One person who participates on the Interference chat-group stated he believes that ATYCLB will eventually rebound all the way to #1. If ATYCLB does win album of the year, I can easily see it doubling, tripling, even quadrupling in sales. However, this would only give it 80-100,000 copies sold in that particular week, which is usually NOT enough to achieve a #1 ranking. Unless ATYCLB gets an unexpected HUGE boost from the Super Bowl, which is then further magnified by some big Grammy wins, I don't think ATYCLB will even return to the Top 10 (it might appear in the Top 20 for a token week) let alone #1.
You know, I don't quite know if a top ten is out of the question, Yah, that'd be a ri-cock-u-lous increase, but then again, this is U2, the most recognized band out there.. If it is possible for anyone, it is for U2..

BUt I do think that I would shit in my pants.. .or at least force myself to .. if they hit number one yet.

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