The NFL Thread Part IV: Super Bowl Edition. - Page 19 - U2 Feedback

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Old 02-07-2006, 09:24 PM   #271
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Your Super Bowl Odds for 2007...
Team - Opening Odds / Odds as of 2/6
Indianapolis Colts 7/2 4/1
Seattle Seahawks 5/1 5/1
New England Patriots 7/2 4/1
Carolina Panthers 6/1 6/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 6/1 6/1
Dallas Cowboys 10/1 10/1
San Diego Chargers 10/1 10/1
Denver Broncos 15/1 10/1
New York Giants 15/1 15/1
Chicago Bears 15/1 15/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 15/1 15/1
Cincinnati Bengals 18/1 18/1
Washington Redskins 20/1 20/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 22/1 22/1
Kansas City Chiefs 22/1 22/1
Atlanta Falcons 25/1 25/1
Philadelphia Eagles 25/1 20/1
Miami Dolphins 25/1 20/1
Minnesota Vikings 25/1 25/1
Green Bay Packers 35/1 35/1
Baltimore Ravens 40/1 40/1
Cleveland Browns 50/1 50/1
St. Louis Rams 50/1 50/1
Buffalo Bills 50/1 50/1
Oakland Raiders 60/1 60/1
Arizona Cardinals 60/1 60/1
Detroit Lions 60/1 50/1
Houston Texans 75/1 75/1
New Orleans Saints 75/1 75/1
San Francisco 49ers 100/1 100/1
Tennessee Titans 100/1 100/1
New York Jets 125/1 100/1
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Old 02-07-2006, 09:28 PM   #272
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Pats.
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Old 02-07-2006, 09:34 PM   #273
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what? no love for the J-E-T-S-JETS-JETS-JETS?
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Old 02-07-2006, 10:28 PM   #274
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How do they come up with those odds?
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Old 02-07-2006, 11:09 PM   #275
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Quote:
Originally posted by Headache in a Suitcase
what? no love for the J-E-T-S-JETS-JETS-JETS?
With Herm gone I just cannot see how the have a shot.


Do the oddmakers look at the Colts record in the off season? Or, like the NFL, just love to lick Peyton's ass.


I am already pissed off about next season by this.













damn it.
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Old 02-08-2006, 01:16 AM   #276
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Originally posted by Headache in a Suitcase
what? no love for the J-E-T-S-JETS-JETS-JETS?
Yeah, really. Losing Herm Edwards has to bump them up a bit, doesn't it?
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Old 02-08-2006, 08:16 AM   #277
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Quote:
Originally posted by redsoxfan
How do they come up with those odds?
There are professional oddsmakers who develop them as well as the daily point spreads/odds on football/basketball/baseball/hockey games. Some work directly for casino sportsbooks, some are consultants. These guys have been doing it for years. Its not so much about being right as in the favorite (Colts again, puhleeze) winning its about getting the odds to where the casinos won't lose money. For example the SuperBowl, the biggest betting event, they don't want a pointspread that reflects the outcome of the game, they want one where equal money comes in on both teams, so the casinos will collect the vigorish aka "juice", the 10% extra you lay to place a bet (example 110 to win 100).

Example:
In a perfect world The Hewson Headache Casino and Entertainment Complex would have taken say 2 million in bets on both the Steelers and Seahawks.
Collecting $2.2mil from Seahawks bettors and paying out $2mil to Steelers bettors.
$200,000 profit. Apply same formula to the over/under, and list as many proposition bets as possible (these are a boon to sportsbooks), and the casino turns a nice profit on super Sunday.

As for the futures bets, because there are 32 teams, casinos will always win here, even if a longshot wins the SuperBowl, so many more people will have bet on the top favored 5 or 6 teams that casinos will always win.


And for those who care to wager on futures...Hewson's tip: Playing the Colts, Pats, Steelers, Seahawks or Panthers isn't really worth it as the odds are low.
These are gimmicky bets, so you should look for a team with decent odds who may have a shot.
Hewson's future play recommendation for next year's SuperBowl is the Washington Redskins at 20-1. That is the best combination of value and realistic shot at getting the job done.
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Old 02-08-2006, 08:20 AM   #278
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Quote:
Originally posted by Headache in a Suitcase
what? no love for the J-E-T-S-JETS-JETS-JETS?
The NY betting contingent is always a major factor in Vegas, and they have already laid enough money on the Jets to drop them from 125-1 to 100-1.
Expect the G-men to drop from their 15-1 and settle around 10-1 or 12-1, so if you want to take a shot, do it early.
NY bettors are a large contingent in Vegas sportsbooks.
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Old 02-08-2006, 08:24 AM   #279
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Quote:
Originally posted by ljclary




Do the oddmakers look at the Colts record in the off season? Or, like the NFL, just love to lick Peyton's ass.


I am already pissed off about next season by this.
Like I said, oddsmakers don't care who wins, they set these odds based on where the public will put their money, and the Colts will get a lot of interest once again because already 2/3 of the ESPN staff has predicted they will finally win the Superbowl next year.
The public love offensive teams, like the 80's Niners, the 90's Rams and the 2000's Colts.
Lots of money will go on Indy.
Not necessarliy the smart money, the average Joe money.
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Old 02-08-2006, 08:29 AM   #280
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These odds need to be taken with a grain of salt given that we haven't had any free agency movement, the draft is still 2.5 months away, and salary cap cuts haven't taken place yet.
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Old 02-08-2006, 09:36 AM   #281
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Quote:
Originally posted by StlElevation
Pats.
dream on patsies are all done...getting old & no secondary...

Steelers are a good bet at 6:1 I'll put $500 on that.
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Old 02-08-2006, 10:14 AM   #282
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Quote:
Originally posted by randhail
These odds need to be taken with a grain of salt given that we haven't had any free agency movement, the draft is still 2.5 months away, and salary cap cuts haven't taken place yet.
No kidding. I guess if Vegas can bring in money on those odds for the Colts when Edgerrin James is practically out the door, good for them.
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Old 02-08-2006, 01:00 PM   #283
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this whole "the pats are getting old" thing makes me laugh.

last i checked brady was 28, and bellichick wasn't going anywhere.

besides, besides brady, it's not like they were a team of stars anyway... they just fill the gaps and move on.
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Old 02-08-2006, 01:03 PM   #284
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Quote:
Originally posted by Hewson
In a perfect world The Hewson Headache Casino and Entertainment Complex would have taken say 2 million in bets on both the Steelers and Seahawks.
i love the hewson headache casino entertainment complex



still have a place in my heart for the original headache hewson center, though...

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Old 02-08-2006, 02:44 PM   #285
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H&H have done nice things with the old Bellagio since acquiring it from MGM Mirage. Now if they'd just get rid of the auto-shufflers at the blackjack tables, I'd head out there every weekend.
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