Straya thread part 5 - scallops and slippery dips

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Ah, back to the realm of leadership speculation. Oh joy.

I'm with Kieran. Tone needs to go down at an election. Hell, if we want this to be a single-term government, the best hope is for Tone to not be deposed. I think the public will punish a Coalition led by him much more than one led by Malcolm Turnbull or Julie Bishop.
 
Precisely, because although an attempt at 'Tony was the problem, but we're kind and nice and listen now' would be pretty threadbare (they're all nasty, vicious and do not listen), it might actually work.

Of course there is now serious talk of the LNP losing the Queensland election outright (I am not so sure, but it's not only optimists and fools speculating), so the sands could shift awfully fast this year.
 
Yeah, there's an easy narrative to be made that Tone is the issue, and despite all the turmoil both Turnbull and Bishop have maintained - even improved - their public popularity. Obviously the issues run much deeper, especially with amoral scumbags like Scott Morrison being allowed anywhere near issues that affect anyone, but political debate is rarely about detail or nuance. I wonder if it might be Peta Credlin rather than Tone who goes. Note all the backbenchers who have expressed deep dissatisfaction with how the PM's office operates and the lack of communication or consultation they receive.

And how are things looking in Queensland right now? I sort of took my eye off it for the past week or so and haven't seen much polling. I can't imagine the ALP can possibly pull off a win. I wonder what the federal consequences will be though, whatever the result. If the LNP is ousted, will that sate Queensland voters a bit and reduce vitriol leading into the 2016 federal poll? If the LNP stays in power and becomes more unpopular, will that increase a swing against the federal government? I know the accepted wisdom is that voters distinguish between state/federal issues, but I've never entirely bought it, especially as I think one poll is often taken as an opportunity to send a message to parties at the other level. The Victorian election result certainly contained an element of hostility to the federal Libs.
 
Yeah, there's an easy narrative to be made that Tone is the issue, and despite all the turmoil both Turnbull and Bishop have maintained - even improved - their public popularity. Obviously the issues run much deeper, especially with amoral scumbags like Scott Morrison being allowed anywhere near issues that affect anyone, but political debate is rarely about detail or nuance. I wonder if it might be Peta Credlin rather than Tone who goes. Note all the backbenchers who have expressed deep dissatisfaction with how the PM's office operates and the lack of communication or consultation they receive.

I would imagine Credlin is nearly the most loathed person in Canberra, although recent evidence would make you wonder if even she exercises much control over Abbott.

And how are things looking in Queensland right now? I sort of took my eye off it for the past week or so and haven't seen much polling. I can't imagine the ALP can possibly pull off a win. I wonder what the federal consequences will be though, whatever the result. If the LNP is ousted, will that sate Queensland voters a bit and reduce vitriol leading into the 2016 federal poll? If the LNP stays in power and becomes more unpopular, will that increase a swing against the federal government? I know the accepted wisdom is that voters distinguish between state/federal issues, but I've never entirely bought it, especially as I think one poll is often taken as an opportunity to send a message to parties at the other level. The Victorian election result certainly contained an element of hostility to the federal Libs.


Any of the factors you raised could come into play; all state elections are a little bit federal, and who knows whether an LNP loss would actually benefit the federal government a bit in the long run, as you say, by sating the bloodlust.

How it will actually go down, God alone knows. I've got no idea. Anecdotally the LNP is travelling very badly. Advertising reeking of desperation. Newman is basically refusing to take questions at this point. I gather everyone's suing or being sued by everyone (Palmer back in the picture).

I'd put it this way; I can't see how the Labor party could pull off a win, but I could sort of (maybe) see how the LNP could pull off a defeat. But I'll believe it when I see it, as I've called exactly one election right in the last fifteen years. I'm the guy who thought Howard Dean was going to be president.
 
Palmer's role in this is absolutely hilarious - not to mention Alan Jones wading in to shout at his should-be allies too. It's that level of political-parody-parading-as-reality that Queensland seems to do in a particularly surreal way. I wonder how it will influence voters though? I can't see it pushing many undecideds from LNP to ALP, but I can see it benefiting local independents or Katter's party. That leads me to another question: how is Katter doing at the state level? Ever since his 2013 federal election disaster, he's seemed basically invisible, but that might be the Victorian/national media failing to reflect the reality in Queensland, especially northern and central areas. But it's telling that a couple of weeks ago Katter was the only minor party/independent currently sitting in federal parliament who I could not remember.

I will be incredibly impressed if almost forty seats change hands for the second election in a row. The LNP may be almost as unpopular as its predecessor, but that sort of wild swinging is basically unprecedented. Speaking of unprecedented, I've checked and there is no instance - state or federal - of a party winning but its leader losing their seat. It has, however, happened in Canada under different constitutional arrangements, and the leader basically has three months to organise a by-election somewhere safe and get parachuted in. I doubt Newman would enjoy such luck, and you struggle to think of a by-election that could be arranged that wouldn't go toxic.
 
Palmer's role in this is absolutely hilarious - not to mention Alan Jones wading in to shout at his should-be allies too. It's that level of political-parody-parading-as-reality that Queensland seems to do in a particularly surreal way. I wonder how it will influence voters though? I can't see it pushing many undecideds from LNP to ALP, but I can see it benefiting local independents or Katter's party. That leads me to another question: how is Katter doing at the state level? Ever since his 2013 federal election disaster, he's seemed basically invisible, but that might be the Victorian/national media failing to reflect the reality in Queensland, especially northern and central areas. But it's telling that a couple of weeks ago Katter was the only minor party/independent currently sitting in federal parliament who I could not remember.

I will be incredibly impressed if almost forty seats change hands for the second election in a row. The LNP may be almost as unpopular as its predecessor, but that sort of wild swinging is basically unprecedented. Speaking of unprecedented, I've checked and there is no instance - state or federal - of a party winning but its leader losing their seat. It has, however, happened in Canada under different constitutional arrangements, and the leader basically has three months to organise a by-election somewhere safe and get parachuted in. I doubt Newman would enjoy such luck, and you struggle to think of a by-election that could be arranged that wouldn't go toxic.

I think disarray always influences voters a little bit. If the LNP does lose, it will be in part for the same reason as Labor the last time; it's a truism that Queenslanders are particularly hostile to the deregulation/privatisation agenda of the last 30 years. The message seems not to ever get through.

Just touching on the Katter Party there briefly, my vague impression is that they are dead in the water. Although itself probably a spent force, the Palmer party overtook them in the public eye in 2013, and they've just seemed utterly adrift since. I'd be astounded if they win a single seat beyond the one they held by default when a sitting member defected.

Katter himself, whatever you think of him, ensured his party nominally has a more identifiable agenda that the Palmer party. He's essentially Old Labor; always has been. With a grab bag of various cultural itches thrown in, and like all personality-driven (and new) parties, a lot of unvetted candidates and little hope of long term cohesion. I don't like Katter, but I do respect him. I have zero respect for Palmer.

Joh's son is their state 'leader' now... and speaking of perennial candidates...

Pauline Hanson is running in the seat adjoining mine. I guess the NSW upper house option didn't work out.

I'm not surprised there's little precedent for the party wins, the leader loses. Because party leaders have tended to be the incumbents of ultra safe seats. I guess John Howard was a bit of an outlier, in a seat that became progressively less safe as the years went by.
 
Shit I just realised, John Bjelke Petersen is Palmer's state party leader, not the Katter party's. Whatever. Irrelevant, the lot of them. Now, independents might get a good run, we'll see.
 
I think disarray always influences voters a little bit. If the LNP does lose, it will be in part for the same reason as Labor the last time; it's a truism that Queenslanders are particularly hostile to the deregulation/privatisation agenda of the last 30 years. The message seems not to ever get through.

I may hang shit on Queensland often, but one of the very positive qualities about the state's politics is this stubborn resistance to deregulation and privatisation. I suppose that's inherent in a state so noticeably decentralised, with sufficient population bases in multiple regions to make life difficult for urban neoliberals trying to ram through their agenda.

Just touching on the Katter Party there briefly, my vague impression is that they are dead in the water. Although itself probably a spent force, the Palmer party overtook them in the public eye in 2013, and they've just seemed utterly adrift since. I'd be astounded if they win a single seat beyond the one they held by default when a sitting member defected.

Katter really shot himself in the foot by refusing a formal alliance with Palmer - though, given the toxic qualities associated with Palmer that you touch on, that was perhaps the right call in terms of moral high ground. I understand Katter's son Rob is member for Mount Isa so you think at least he would hold on, though maybe that's not such a given after his dad's near-defeat in 2013.

Oh and massive lulz at John Bjelke-Petersen.

Can't believe Pauline's back in Queensland. My condolences.
 
I think that the Hanson bandwagon has about run its course at this point. Anyhow the local LNP member is actually relatively well liked; in no real danger, I'd not think.
 
Oh yeah, Hanson's only chance nowadays is to try to sneak into an upper house somewhere via preferences. Queensland's lack of an upper house and its optional preference system mean she has no hope any more. I wonder why she is wasting her time.
 
In that case perhaps she should sign up for whatever latest celebrity reality TV shitfest Channel Ten is hoping will save it from insolvency. They probably need all the c-list forgotten losers they can get.

...hang on, if I'm not grossly mistaken, she did appear on some celebrity reality show, didn't she?
 
But she did, she already did the dancing shows. 'Strictly Dancing' or 'Do the Ronald' or whatever it was called. 'Dancing With The Stars', that was it.



No Truth To Rumors Campbell Newman Wanted 'Mr November' For Campaign Soundtrack
 
Incidentally on the matter of seats changing hands earlier: I'd agree it's rather a large expectation, but it wouldn't have to be forty seats.

The LNP, after various defections, currently holds 73 of 89 seats. If they lose 29 seats, they're gone. For sure they're not going to win much that they don't presently hold. I'd imagine Labor won't lose any it already holds - it is at bedrock, after all. So that leaves potential gains plus wildcard independents. And maybe a Katter or a PUP or two, but I do sort of doubt it.

Given the current state of the LNP, I think even a victory margin of two or four seats would be at danger of evaporating through further defections. All that said, they will probably retain office in some threadbare form. I do think Newman's gone though.
 
The ALP will want to govern in its own right, but to do that they'll need to pick up 36 seats if my maths is correct. I can't imagine it, much as I'd like to. Say the LNP does, however, drop 29 and slump to 44 and the ALP manages to scramble back up to 40 or 41, with the rest a motley assortment of KAP, PUP, and independents. That would raise the really interesting question of who would be granted supply, and normally I'd expect that to be the sitting government but the way everybody seems to be campaigning on "put Newman last" makes me think the ALP would be in the driver's seat.

But yeah, if the LNP - or, for that matter, the ALP - only holds power by the barest of margins, I could see a Goss/Borbidge sort of situation happening again a year down the track when Clive waves a lot of money in front of a disgruntled backbencher.

As an aside, it's hard to believe that less than a decade ago the ALP held 39 of the 40 Brisbane seats.
 
Speaking of wild swings. Heh. Peter Beattie took what should have been fatal internal party shenanigans and turned them into a landslide. Queensland has had a few minority/borderline minority governments, and whatever they say in public, they'll get their negotiating shoes on if it comes to it.

As for those 36 seats, it's pretty speculative, and your maths is right, yes. But Labor doesn't really have to win them. The LNP just has to lose them. Actually, while I as I said I consider the Katter party dead in the water, a two-or-tree person KAP 'party room' would be mildly interesting. If they really took orders from the guy in the gallon hat, they'd be unlikely to have much time for an ongoing Newman Government asset sales agenda.

True independents do exist, some long timers are still there from the late nineties if I'm not mistaken, but lesser men and women can often be induced into joining the party in favour. I believe whatshisface, in Condamine... Hopper... won office as a plucky rural independent and has subsequently burned through a career in the LNP and now works for Katter's party. A disgraced Borbidge government minister, Trevor Perrett, won Joh's old seat (in my hometown) running for the Citizens Electoral Council. Needless to say he later joined the Nationals.

Oh and the other thing, 'optional preferential voting', I don't know and I'm showing my ignorance here, if this is a factor at other state elections. But there has been a bit of a culture of 'just vote one' in Queensland in the last decades and so... shit can swing hard at times.
 
Oh yeah, Hanson's only chance nowadays is to try to sneak into an upper house somewhere via preferences. Queensland's lack of an upper house and its optional preference system mean she has no hope any more. I wonder why she is wasting her time.


I wonder whether she is better off absorbing herself into someone like Rise Up Australia and whoever the other mob was in the recent Vic election.

A lot of people seem to empathise with her racist half-witted views and maybe she just needs to be part of an organised party for her political aspirations to be realised.

She's not really a Christian though is she? Just a racist.


Sent from a barge floating through the docks of Dublin
 
look i love this thread but i'm having some anxiety issues at the moment and these posts are too long and verbose so please work on that everyone
 
I re-edit most of my posts so they end up not making sense because what originally flowed from paragraph two to paragraph three now looks like a non sequitur on the end of paragraph seven.
 
As for those 36 seats, it's pretty speculative, and your maths is right, yes. But Labor doesn't really have to win them. The LNP just has to lose them. Actually, while I as I said I consider the Katter party dead in the water, a two-or-tree person KAP 'party room' would be mildly interesting. If they really took orders from the guy in the gallon hat, they'd be unlikely to have much time for an ongoing Newman Government asset sales agenda.

Given Katter himself was the one cross-bench holdout from the ALP in 2010, it would be fascinating if KAP now threw its lot in with an ALP minority state government, should such a scenario come to pass. But I agree, I can't see them having any part of asset sales. If they did, it would ensure they don't survive another election.

A disgraced Borbidge government minister, Trevor Perrett, won Joh's old seat (in my hometown) running for the Citizens Electoral Council. Needless to say he later joined the Nationals.

This cracks me the fuck up every time I remember it.

Oh and the other thing, 'optional preferential voting', I don't know and I'm showing my ignorance here, if this is a factor at other state elections. But there has been a bit of a culture of 'just vote one' in Queensland in the last decades and so... shit can swing hard at times.

I think OPV is absolutely fucking terrible. I thought it was only a Queensland thing, but after poking around on Antony Green's blog this morning I've learnt that it apparently exists at NSW state elections too. Given Queensland's absence of an upper house, it's turned state elections into a glorified first-past-the-post shitshow. (We also have a form of OPV for the upper house in Victoria, but in that case you must number at least five boxes below the line, which usually means you must distribute preferences to a second party - and most people vote above the line anyway and accept a ticket with full preferences.)

It was Beattie who first popularised "just vote one" at the 2001 election to take advantage of the disorganisation between the Libs and Nats, and look at how that's now come back to bite the ALP. I wonder how many seats will remain LNP because of Green and other preferences exhausting rather than reaching the ALP.

Perhaps, however, this might be enough to force a closer alliance between the ALP and Greens on a state level. I understand the Greens fancy themselves for Mt Coot-tha?

I wonder whether she is better off absorbing herself into someone like Rise Up Australia and whoever the other mob was in the recent Vic election.

I think her name is such poison, even to the other nutjobs, that nobody would have her. She's seen as past-it and bringing too much unwelcome attention.

Also remember that most people on the extreme fringe can't work together. Too many egos, too much willingness to split into powerless fragments over minor disagreements. That's why we had four random fundie nutter parties at the Victorian state election rather than one organised one. Good thing that, too.
 
^that is a good thing. you get all the entertainment without much risk that they will truly fuck something up.

I am constantly refreshing #spill on twitter. There have been wee little murmurings since the weekend.
 
I think OPV is absolutely fucking terrible. I thought it was only a Queensland thing, but after poking around on Antony Green's blog this morning I've learnt that it apparently exists at NSW state elections too. Given Queensland's absence of an upper house, it's turned state elections into a glorified first-past-the-post shitshow. (We also have a form of OPV for the upper house in Victoria, but in that case you must number at least five boxes below the line, which usually means you must distribute preferences to a second party - and most people vote above the line anyway and accept a ticket with full preferences.)

It was Beattie who first popularised "just vote one" at the 2001 election to take advantage of the disorganisation between the Libs and Nats, and look at how that's now come back to bite the ALP. I wonder how many seats will remain LNP because of Green and other preferences exhausting rather than reaching the ALP.

Optional preferential voting is not a great method in a state that doesn't even have an upper house, to be sure. I number my preferences, but I imagine a very high percentage (could be up to 70%) do not.

If there's disorganisation between LNP, PUPs, Katterites, Citizens Electoral Councillors, Pauline Hanson and whoever else, you never know what the hell might play out this time. I mean, I literally don't know.
 
Do any of these people have the slightest self-awareness at all?

Murdoch should be on the same list that Gillard put Alan Jones on. The ignore list. No meetings, no tete-a-tetes. If there's anything to talk about he can send a representative and they can fucking well wait in the corridor.
 
Optional preferential voting is not a great method in a state that doesn't even have an upper house, to be sure. I number my preferences, but I imagine a very high percentage (could be up to 70%) do not.

Antony Green - who's actually supportive of OPV, to my surprise - has posted the stats, and you are dead right, it's blown out to 70%: Antony Green's Election Blog: Why Campbell Newman Advocates 'Just Vote 1'

I'm surprised how few give partial preferences. The only time I voted in Queensland was 2006 and I was one of the 3.78% who gave partial preferences. My electorate was a boring ALP-Lib-Green contest, so I just voted Green then ALP and didn't deign to preference the Libs.

Rupe has just ordered Tone to sack Peta on Twitter.

Or that she should do her "patriotic duty" and resign. :lol:

Ugh, now look out for all the News Ltd papers running scurrilous and blatantly sexist campaigns against Credlin. It's not as if she even played a role in the absurd knighthood decision!
 
The one thing I could maybe say in favour of OPV is that it's awfully hard to rank a roll call of candidates who include the CEC, Rise Up Australia, One Nation, and the League of Rights. I mean, who gets the coveted last spot? In a way, I could justify a voting system for the House of Representatives where you had to at least rank the first three in your favoured order (let's assume that at least three candidates are standing) and then give up after that.
 
Yeah, I see your point there. Having to rank a whole bunch of fairly equally repugnant options is undesirable - but so is FPTP, especially when it's being smuggled in through the back door. Even just a mandatory second preference would be better than nothing, but I agree three would be a reasonable minimum.

Whichever way you frame a system, it'll favour one side of politics more for a period and then swing (e.g. preferential voting was originally introduced to suit the Nationalists and Country Party, but in recent decades has come to favour ALP/Green, while in just two decades we've seen OPV in Queensland rapidly change from suiting the ALP to suiting the LNP). What needs to be done is to ensure that, whoever a system favours at a particular time, it most accurately reflects the will of the electorate and anyone who is elected can claim support from a majority of votes once preferences are distributed. Nobody should be elected with under 50% of the 2PP vote, but I bet you it'll happen numerous times this Saturday.
 
I don't think the electorate knows itself. We must respect results, cause that's how it rolls, and hopefully the system is relatively robust (the system we have nationally is pretty good, in my utterly non-expert opinion). But I doubt the electorate has a fucking clue half the time.

Yes, a candidate, let alone a party, getting in on under 50% is rather on the nose. I remember watching that Howard in Power (like Labor In Power only with less Mahler) documentary a while back and he (Howard) makes clear that he was shitting bricks on election night 1998. As well he might. Graeme was out the back smashing up wine bottles for sharp blades.
 
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