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Old 12-02-2004, 05:36 PM   #46
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the pats-colts rivalry right now is like boston-yankees in the playoffs.

people won't think of it as a real victory unless they beat the Pats on the way, just as people wouldn't have thought of the red sox winning the world series a true win unless they beat the yankees along the way.
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Old 12-03-2004, 01:03 PM   #47
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Quote:
Originally posted by DaveC
the pats-colts rivalry right now is like boston-yankees in the playoffs.

people won't think of it as a real victory unless they beat the Pats on the way, just as people wouldn't have thought of the red sox winning the world series a true win unless they beat the yankees along the way.
True, and it makes it that much sweeter when it happens. It also makes for fantastic storyline purposes for journalists and collectors as you saw with the baseball story
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Old 12-03-2004, 02:44 PM   #48
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yes and it makes it that much funner when the colts have to lose again to the patriots.
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Old 12-03-2004, 03:41 PM   #49
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I bet you won't have the guts to come here and post if the Colts win! And I bet you switch your favorite team and your avatar if they don't go all the way. You're nothing but a bandwagoner who loves to brag, and you will change teams with the wind according to who's hot at the moment. I've seen dozens just like you. If you're in St. Louis why are you not a Rams fan? They didn't win the Super Bowl last year?
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Old 12-03-2004, 04:14 PM   #50
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Quote:
Originally posted by IndyGoGirl
I bet you won't have the guts to come here and post if the Colts win! And I bet you switch your favorite team and your avatar if they don't go all the way. You're nothing but a bandwagoner who loves to brag, and you will change teams with the wind according to who's hot at the moment. I've seen dozens just like you. If you're in St. Louis why are you not a Rams fan? They didn't win the Super Bowl last year?
yes, attack me please.

i'm not in st louis, i'm in connecticut, thanks. you know where that is? new england. imagine that.

is baseball season over? yes. did i have time to change my avatar from the cardinals to pats? finally i did.

i posted here when the cardinals got swept, which causes far more pain than any other loss in sports history could do for me. i had game 5 tickets and everything, but i still came here and posted.

now when the pats do smoke the colts again because peyton can't play when his hands are cold, i'd like to see you on this board...assuming the colts can even make it that far to face new england.

if you want to make a valid point upon why the colts could POSSIBLY beat new england as headache tried to do (he's not even a colts fan either), fine let's talk. it won't happen, i know it won't not in gillette and i doubt even in the rca dome. but you'd rather tell me how much of a bandwagon fan i am because i root for the patriots and i'm from new england. or, you could tell me how terrible of a fan i am since i switched my cardinals avatar to a patriots avatar because it's football season.

'scuse me while i go try and find on my computer the highlights of last years AFC championship game where peyton shined like the star he is...
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Old 12-03-2004, 04:26 PM   #51
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There is no such thing as 'not gonna happen' Anything can happen on 'any given Sunday!'

I think it was Vince Lombardi who once said it was better to be lucky than good. Football is largely a game of luck and chance. With fumbles, penalties and bad or good bounces, and Don Meredith's good old friend Mo(mentum) anything can happen! The shittiest team in the league can beat the best. The Colts are hardly a shitty team. The Pats aren't the best team, the Eagles are. Even the Eagles could get knocked off by someone lame. Who knows where the wind will take any of them? There are NO guarantees so don't mouth off too much or you might have to eat it!
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Old 12-03-2004, 07:19 PM   #52
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the eagles are the best team? based on what?

the pats are the best team, but the team that the league has to "recognize" as the best has to be pittsburgh because they beat new england and philly, but i just dont believe in pittsburgh.
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Old 12-04-2004, 06:08 AM   #53
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Steelers will take the Pats
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Old 12-04-2004, 06:24 AM   #54
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Of course U2Kitten, you realize that for the Steelers to beat the Pats, that means the Pats will have already beaten the Colts en route to that matchup, since the Pats and Steelers are sitting pretty as the #1 and 2 seeds in the AFC. The Pats in essence have a 3 game lead on the Colts by vitrue of the head to head victory with 5 games left. Pats 5 remining opponents are Cle, Cinn, Mia, Jets and SF. They aren't losing 3 of those 5 even if the Colts do run the table.
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Old 12-04-2004, 09:41 AM   #55
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As long as someone beats them, I'll be happy. The only team I hate more is Dallas! I have a lifelong hatred for Dallas. But they're out of it this year.

Whoever wins, I really hope it's someone who has never won a Super Bowl (Eagles, Vikings) or who hasn't won one in many years (Colts) It's more interesting to have a variety of winners. Besides I don't think ANY team around today deserves to be a dynasty in the mold of the 80's 49ers, 70's Steelers or 60's Pack. With free agency those days are over.
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Old 12-06-2004, 05:38 AM   #56
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Thats the beauty of the current Pats organization, in this era of salary cap and free agency, Belichick, Pioli and company are able to build a dynasty style team similar to those teams you mention, its fairly remarkable considering all the personnel hurdles these days.
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Old 12-06-2004, 07:48 AM   #57
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The thing is they were very lucky to build such a solid team with a bunch of (mostly) no names. That doesn't usually happen.

I think the reason I'm so down on them is that the bandwagoners have become annoying, as they do for any team on top, the Rams had them too, Dallas of course always the worst, but some of those would swap for a Raiders jacket in a minute if they could brag on them. Those of you who are real Pat fans from NE, I am happy for you, I know you have suffered a lot in your time too.
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Old 12-09-2004, 07:04 AM   #58
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from ESPN.com Page2

He's Otto-Matic: Manning's No. 1
By Aaron Schatz
Special to Page 2


Peyton Manning is having the greatest quarterback season ever.

That's the assumption. After all, he's on pace for nearly 5,000 yards passing and 59 touchdowns. But how do you compare Manning's numbers to quarterbacks from the past, with NFL rules and styles of play constantly changing? The average quarterback now puts up completely different numbers compared to the average quarterback of 1994 or 1975 or 1962.

Sure, Manning has eye-popping statistics -- in one of the most offense-oriented seasons in NFL history. The league as a whole has never had a completion percentage over 60 percent, but thanks in part to stricter enforcement of illegal contact by defensive backs, the leaguewide completion percentage is currently 60.1 percent. NFL teams are averaging more passing touchdowns per game than in any non-strike year and fewer interceptions per game than in any season ever. So is Manning really having the best season ever, or has he been helped by the rules?

We've gone through every quarterback season since the AAFC-NFL merger in 1950 to figure out the best passing performances in history. We created a level playing field by transferring each season to the offensive environment of 2004. If interceptions were more common than they are in 2004, we project fewer interceptions. If teams threw less often than they do now, we project more passing. If teams played only 14 games a year, we give the quarterback an extra two games -- and Manning and the other 2004 quarterbacks get an extra four games to make a full season.

Then we created a formula that turns passes, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions into the same PAR points (points created above a replacement-level QB) that you find each week in the Snap Judgment QB ratings. Unfortunately, we can't break down every single play like we do for Snap Judgment, so we can't adjust quarterbacks who get stuck in bad field position or have no running game. We couldn't include sacks since those numbers don't exist for some seasons, and we didn't adjust for strength of schedule. Also, this is a list of the best passing seasons of all time, not necessarily the best quarterbacking seasons of all time. Rushing yardage isn't included, which is one reason why Steve Young's 1994 season didn't crack the top 10.

It turns out that Manning is indeed having a historic season -- the greatest of all time, in fact. But two other 2004 QBs could also end up with historic years (factoring in regular-season performance only).

10. Kurt Warner, 2001 St. Louis Rams
Actual stats: 375 for 546, 68.7% completion rate, 4830 yards, 36 TD, 22 INT
2004 projection: 374 for 534, 70.0%, 4945 yards, 40 TD, 20 INT

Like a lot of big stars around the turn of the millenium, Kurt Warner came out of nowhere, was huge for a couple years, and then fell apart, only to launch a series of aborted comebacks. His tenure with the Giants this season was the NFL equivalent of one of those VH-1 "I Love the '90s" specials. But for three years, he was the best in the business. He's the only QB with two seasons in the top 10. This season is a bit lower than 1999, despite the better completion rate, because Warner threw fewer touchdowns and more interceptions.

What's scary is that according to my numbers at Football Outsiders, the 2000 Rams were actually the best of the three St. Louis offenses. That was the season that Warner missed five games due to injury, and Trent Green took over and didn't miss a beat, but the Rams were betrayed by a defense that completely imploded.

9. Rich Gannon, 2002 Oakland Raiders
Actual stats: 417 for 616, 67.7%, 4676 yards, 26 TD, 10 INT
2004 projection: 397 for 582, 68.2%, 4663 yards, 27 TD, 9 INT

Hi, remember me? A couple of years ago, I set an all-time record for pass completions in a season. I led my team to the Super Bowl and was voted league MVP at the ripe old age of 37. Since then I've injured myself in roughly 40 different places and now you'll find me on the side of a milk carton. Even though I broke a vertebra in my neck this season, I'm considering a comeback in 2005. Can I quarterback your team?

8. Kurt Warner, 1999 St. Louis Rams
Actual stats: 325 for 499, 65.1%, 4353 yards, 41 TD, 13 INT
2004 projection: 323 for 471, 68.6%, 4315 yards, 44 TD, 11 INT

In 1999, Warner set a record for most fantasy football leagues won by the guy with waiver priority in the first week. The bad news for Manning and Donovan McNabb fans is that this is the only season in the top 10 that ended with an NFL title. In fact, the only other season in the top 20 that ended with a Super Bowl victory was Steve Young's 1994.

7. Ken Anderson, 1975 Cincinnati Bengals
Actual stats: 228 for 377, 60.5%, 3169 yards, 21 TD, 11 INT (13 games)
2004 projection: 348 for 501, 69.3%, 4480 yards, 29 TD, 8 INT

To understand how a quarterback with only 228 completions and 3169 yards can somehow project to 348 completions and 4480 yards under current conditions, you have to remember how much different the NFL was before the liberalization of passing rules in 1978. In 1975, the average quarterback barely completed half his passes. Teams averaged 4.5 fewer passes a game than today, but ran the ball eight more times a game. But a few quarterbacks stood head-and-shoulders above the rest of the league: Anderson, Fran Tarkenton and Bert Jones. Tarkenton won the MVP this season but Anderson threw for 175 more yards on 48 fewer attempts. The Bengals had to play in Oakland in the first round of the playoffs, and Anderson led a two-touchdown comeback in the fourth quarter, but the Bengals couldn't recover the onside kick and lost 31-28.

6. Donovan McNabb, 2004 Philadelphia Eagles
Actual stats: 256 for 393, 65.1%, 3356 yards, 28 TD, 5 INT (through 12 games)
2004 projection: 341 for 524, 65.1%, 4476 yards, 37 TD, 7 INT

McNabb is the only player in the top 10 who is occasionally overshadowed by his mom. Yes, he's been this good, and no, there was no reason to expect it. Manning's record 2004 is just the logical next step in his career path, but McNabb is going to have twice as many touchdowns as last year and four times as many touchdown celebrations on "NFL Prime Time." No star wide receiver who changed teams has had the kind of effect on his quarterback's numbers that Terrell Owens. More often the star receiver just sees his numbers drop and the quarterback's numbers don't change at all. Think of Peerless Price, or John Jefferson to Green Bay back in 1981.

The scary thing is that McNabb might end up better than this projection, because Dallas and St. Louis are still on the schedule and those are two of the worst pass defenses in the league. Forget five touchdowns in the first half, McNabb might throw for five touchdowns in the first five minutes against one of those teams.

5. Warren Moon, 1990 Houston Oilers
Actual stats: 362 for 584, 62.0%, 4689 yards, 33 TD, 13 INT
2004 projection: 411 for 617, 66.5%, 5020 yards, 37 TD, 12 INT

Ah, the run and shoot. Some might object to the presence of Moon on this list, since he was playing in an offense that allowed him to throw, throw, and throw some more. It is hard to take a football strategy seriously when it is invented by a guy named "Mouse." But Moon's performance was more than just some gimmick offense. No team ran less often than the Oilers, so opposing defenses could play with extra defensive backs the whole game. Moon led the league in completion percentage anyway. Despite the run and shoot, he only led the league in pass attempts by 30. But he had an astonishing 700 more yards than the quarterback in second place, Jim Everett.

Here's the scary thing: if he played today, Moon might be throwing more. The average NFL team today passes 5 percent more often than in 1990, with a higher completion percentage and more yardage. Imagine the run and shoot with stricter pass interference calls making things easier on the receivers.

4. Bert Jones, 1976 Baltimore Colts
Actual stats: 207 for 343, 60.3%, 3104 yards, 24 TD, 9 INT (14 games)
2004 projection: 332 for 478, 69.6%, 4629 yards, 35 TD, 8 INT

Who? It's almost impossible to find a football fan younger than30 who has ever heard of this guy. When people talk about the great quarterbacks from the '70s, you hear about Terry Bradshaw, Fran Tarkenton and Roger Staubach -- never Bert Jones. But for a short three-year stretch, from 1975 to 1977, Jones was probably the best quarterback in the league. People knew who he was then -- he was the second overall pick in the 1973 draft and won the 1976 MVP award. Unfortunately, history does not look kindly upon quarterbacks who lose in the first round of the playoffs for three straight seasons, lose most of two years to injury, and eventually get traded to the Rams and rot on the bench behind Vince Ferragamo. But Bert Jones, not Johnny Unitas, had the greatest single season in the history of the Colts. Until 2004, that is.

3. Dan Marino, 1984 Miami Dolphins
Actual stats: 362 for 564, 64.2%, 5084 yards, 48 TD, 17 INT
2004 projection: 385 for 562, 68.4%, 5042 yards, 50 TD, 13 INT

You may have heard something about this man recently. Because offense is up all over the league this year, a lot of people assume that Manning is chasing after Marino's record under somewhat easier conditions. But actually, 1984 was a very strong year for offense as well, so Marino set the record in an offensive environment pretty similar to today's. The main differences were lower completion percentages for quarterbacks around the league and a lot more interceptions thrown. Plus the big hair. Seriously, imagine Peyton Manning with Marino's hair from 1984. Yikes.

2. Otto Graham, 1953 Cleveland Browns
Actual stats: 167 for 258, 64.7%, 2722 yards, 11 TD, 9 INT (12 games)
2004 projection: 303 for 368, 82.2%, 4251 yards, 16 TD, 6 INT

Jim Brown may have been the greatest NFL player ever at his peak, and Jerry Rice the greatest over the course of an entire career, but neither of them can claim the title "Babe Ruth of football." Otto Graham can, because he revolutionized the game like nobody before or since. Like Ruth, his statistics look ludicrous when normalized for their era because he was playing the modern game while the rest of the league was in the dead-ball era. Cleveland was the first team whose offensive linemen formed a passing pocket instead of trying to block a pass play like a running play. Coach Paul Brown also originated timing routes, sideline passes, the draw play, and the concept of players keeping their own playbooks. Graham turned the new ideas into points on the scoreboard.

Graham had a very low number of passing touchdowns, because Cleveland preferred to go into the end zone on the ground. (One of Graham's halfbacks, "Dub" Jones, would later father a pretty good quarterback named Bert.) Otherwise, Graham's 1953 line looks like a modern quarterback. Except he was completing 65 percent of his passes in a league where quarterbacks completed only 47 percent of their passes. He averaged 10.5 yards per pass attempt; nobody has averaged more than 10 since. Every single year Otto Graham played professional football, his team made the championship game. But they didn't win it in Graham's best season, falling to Detroit 17-16.

1. Peyton Manning, 2004 Indianapolis Colts
Actual stats: 262 for 385, 68.1%, 3621 yards, 44 TD, 9 INT (through 12 games)
2004 projection: 349 for 511, 68.4%, 4833 yards, 59 TD, 12 INT

A lot of people just don't like Peyton Manning for some unexplained reason. If you are one of those people, put aside your grievances for the next four weeks and enjoy history. Even taking into account the rise in offense across the league, Manning is on his way to the greatest passing season of all time, not just in TD passes but in terms of overall performance. Ironically, the team that has the best chance of forcing him into a bad game is the team whose fans hate the Colts the most. Only one quarterback has thrown for more than 230 yards against Baltimore this year, so this may be the only time in his life where Manning gets the advice to "be more like Carson Palmer."

What happens come playoff time? Well, since he would probably have to beat the Patriots in New England, the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and then Philadelphia in the Super Bowl, I wouldn't count on Manning crowning his record-setting season with a Lombardi Trophy. But do you want to count out a guy who might pass for 60 touchdowns?

The Next Ten
11. Daunte Culpepper, 2004 Minnesota Vikings (projected)
12. Peyton Manning, 2003 Indianapolis Colts
13. Fran Tarkenton, 1976 Minnesota Vikings
14. Dan Fouts, 1981 San Diego Chargers
15. Roman Gabriel, 1973 Philadelphia Eagles
16. Ken Anderson, 1974 Cincinnati Bengals
17. John Brodie, 1970 San Francisco 49ers
18. Steve Young, 1994 San Francisco 49ers
19. Ken Stabler, 1976 Oakland Raiders
20. Johnny Unitas, 1967 Baltimore Colts

Aaron Schatz is editor-in-chief of FootballOutsiders.com.
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Old 12-10-2004, 03:40 PM   #59
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Peyton!
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Old 12-13-2004, 05:31 AM   #60
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Come see me when Peyton completes a pass from his ass and we'll talk, until then Brady rules!
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