NFL 2009-2010: Part The Second

[speedracer]

More analysis of Bill Belichick's 4th-and-2 decision from Advanced NFL Stats here.

 

[LemonMelon]

Looking over those stats, and giving it a bit more thought, I will recant and say that Belichick's decision was logical. However, I maintain that the play call itself was awful and played against the strengths of the Patriots' offense, and that negates the numbers somewhat.

 

[coolian2]

as good an idea as any. given the momentum the colts had they were probably just as likely to score after a punt. the patriots big mistake was not letting addai run into the endzone with about a minute left - they'd have had a much better chance (albeit minimised because they were out of timeouts) of winning than hopelessly trying to hold the colts out.

 

[phanan]

The call, as risky as it was, does make sense. Again, I'm not sure I would have done it in that situation, but I understand it.

But to say it is because of arrogance? Please. It was more out of respect for Manning than anything else, perhaps too much respect.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

i don't care what sort of wacky, convoluted stats anyone pulls out of their ass to state how the percentages don't lie and how it was the right call. you can pull out a stat for anything, if you really try hard enough. i once presented a logical argument based on common opponents on how the rinky dink, 5 win division 3 college basketball team i played for my senior year could have won the D1 ncaa tournament (we beat a team who beat a team who beat a team who beat a team who beat maryland). just because the stats are there to back it up doesn't neccesarily make it true...

if that was eric mangini who pulled that shit, everyone would be laughing at how dumb he was, and he'd probably be fired the next day for sheer stupidity beyond the reasonable stupidity that he shows on any given sunday.

the only reason why people are even trying to justify that 4th and 2 call is because it's bill belichick, football genius. well even einstein failed math. that was an awful, awful, awful, awful, awful decision.

i understand the arrogance argument people are making, i just don't believe it. i don't think he did it out of arrogance... i think he just made a bonehead call out of a lack of confidence in his defense.

 

[mikal]

i have to chime in and also say that it was a horrible call. i maybe would have supported it if all the Colts needed was a field goal. but they needed a touchdown. and it's not like Colts were torching the Pats D the entire game. in that situation, you have to put it in your defense's hands, no matter who you are or who they are.

 

[phanan]

I don't think it was a bonehead call; in many ways, it made sense to try it. The Patriots offense converts fourth downs more than 60%, the Colts defense struggled all night to stop them, and the Patriots defense was going to have a hard time holding off Manning.

That being said, I wouldn't have done it. Yes, there's a good chance Manning marches down the field to win the game anyway, but there are so many things that could go wrong, you just don't know. What if the punt returner muffs the ball, what if a running back fumbles on a play, what if penalties make it impossible for Manning to overcome?

I believe Manning would've won the game either way, but because of the fact that anything can happen, I would've punted there.

In the end though, does it really matter? Regardless of the outcome of this game, the Patriots were still going to win the East and the Colts were still going to win the South. The only thing that could happen is losing the bye, but let's face it - the Colts were still going to get one of them, and the second one is still up for grabs. The Bengals are at 7-2, and then the Patriots, Steelers, Broncos, and Chargers are all 6-3. I still like the Patriots chances of getting that second bye.

Either way, it's a good bet that the Patriots will be back in Indy in January whether they had won last night or not.

 

[mikal]

In the end though, does it really matter? Regardless of the outcome of this game, the Patriots were still going to win the East and the Colts were still going to win the South. The only thing that could happen is losing the bye, but let's face it - the Colts were still going to get one of them, and the second one is still up for grabs. The Bengals are at 7-2, and then the Patriots, Steelers, Broncos, and Chargers are all 6-3. I still like the Patriots chances of getting that second bye.

Either way, it's a good bet that the Patriots will be back in Indy in January whether they had won last night or not.

you know, it's funny. i thought the same exact thing the very moment they decided to go for it. there's no way the Jets or Dolphins come back to win the division, and the Pats know that.

i still think it was a horrible call though, even if the Pats are good at converting 4th downs. you have to put it in the hands of your defense in that situation.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

if the pats had won last night, they'd be just a game behind indy with the tie-breaker in hand... and the chances that new england and indy end up with the same record, thus putting the AFC championship game in New England, would be a hell of a lot greater than they are today.

so yes... i believe it did matter, and losing that game could end up costing the pats a trip to the super bowl.

speaking of the super bowl... imagine if some how, some way, indy and new orleans both run the table, and have a battle of undefeated teams in don shula's backyard? wouldn't that be some sorta awesome.

 

[mikal]

as much as i hate Skip Bayless, it was kind of cool to hear him say that he thinks the Packers will be in the SuperBowl this year.

 

[phanan]

Even if they had won last night, the Patriots would most likely have had to run the table and the Colts would have had to lose another game in order to get the #1 seed.

Possible, but unlikely. Still think a return trip to Indy was happening no matter what.

But yeah, winning last night sure would've made it tougher on the Colts to keep that top seed.

 

[Screwtape2]

Standings aside I think that 4th quarter made it matter. What kind of confidence do the Pats defense have in themselves after that 4th down try and giving up 21 in that quarter to the Colts? I don't believe in the whole "having someone's number" or being in someone's head but the Colts won despite being dominated which may factor in the next meeting. I don't know how big of an effect those things will have but there is that potential. On the flipside, had the Colts lost they'd be a young team racing to recover against the Ravens. Instead it gave them confidence. So I think the game mattered.

 

[MrPryck2U]

Hey, let's put the jinx on now:

Peyton Manning is having a great season along with his undefeated Colts. Will Shula's '72 'Phin team finally bow to a team that goes 19-0? Stay tuned.

 

[speedracer]

speaking of the super bowl... imagine if some how, some way, indy and new orleans both run the table, and have a battle of undefeated teams in don shula's backyard? wouldn't that be some sorta awesome.

As awesome as this would be, not gonna happen. Bill Belichick is going to onside-kick against Indy in OT of the AFC championship game and the Pats are gonna win.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

true... and somehow eli manning will escape a 12 man gang tackle and drop kick the ball thru the uprights for a stunning one point victory against new orleans.

 

[Screwtape2]

I don't think I realized just how bad the Browns offense was until tonight...

 

[BEAL]

Yeah, they were really bad. refuse to even look downfield.

which was great as i had the ravens defense

 

[AnnRKeyintheUSA]

How sadly ironic, the Cleveland fans have to watch the new Browns lose to the real, original Browns playing for another city

 

[Mrs. Garrison]

Browns play the Lions next monday night. I guess fans of both teams can wear paper bags over their heads.

About that bellychick call, when i saw that all i could think of was, that was very Andy Reid of him to make that call. Why even bother having a Defense if you are going to take a chance like that?

Lots of crazy shit this weekend. The Cowboys...need i say more. Gotta love that Roy Williams fumble, and those drops. Probably not a game changer really because the entire Cowboy offense sucked badly. Losing Columbo was a tough blow too. But then again nobody else on the team is complaining about not getting enough balls thrown their way like Roy Williams. At least when T.O. did that he backed up his talk with good play. Roy Williams, until he proves himself otherwise, just plain sucks.

Vince Young has done pretty well the last three games. Not sure if he is completely over whatever was going on in his head last year. But you have to wonder if he started the season would Tenessee have a winning record? Maybe then the Titans owner wouldn't be flipping the bird to everyone.

Occasionally Adrian Peterson will fumble the ball just to remind people that he is human. He did that a few times at Oklahoma to remind us as well. He's still incredible. No matter how bad people here hate Favre, and no matter how bad the Cowboys were the other day or how bad the Packers beat us. I would still take Favre over Aaron Rogers until proven otherwise. Sorry Mikal. Im not ready to write anybody off just yet, but for anybody to put the Packers in the Superbowl at this point, or any other team for that matter, well thats laughable. The season is long and theres a lot of football left to play, every team has good days and every team has bad days. I'm not even a believer in New Orleans just yet. I think someone will knock them out in the playoffs, i have no idea of who or how or why, i just have that feeling. I guess whoever gets hot in late December or early January will make that run...or not.

 

[mikal]

Lots of crazy shit this weekend. The Cowboys...need i say more. Gotta love that Roy Williams fumble, and those drops. Probably not a game changer really because the entire Cowboy offense sucked badly. Losing Columbo was a tough blow too. But then again nobody else on the team is complaining about not getting enough balls thrown their way like Roy Williams. At least when T.O. did that he backed up his talk with good play. Roy Williams, until he proes himself otherwise, just plain sucks.

i am proud to say that the Cowboys lost because they ran into a Packers team that finally showed up. this is how Green Bay should have been playing all season.

 

[Mrs. Garrison]

i am proud to say that the Cowboys lost because they ran into a Packers team that finally showed up. this is how Green Bay should have been playing all season.

that may be true about GB, but honestly the Cowboys never really got anything going because they didnt show up. They were high last week against the Iggles, this week they were playing a supposedly "down" team and it came back to bite them in the ass. You can't play like that in the NFL especially on the road and expect to win. Unless you are playing St Louis or Cleveland, which is basically a bye week, you'd better have your act together.

But i will give GB credit where it is due, they played better Defense than i though they possibly could and they did what they had to do to win the game.

 

[AnnRKeyintheUSA]

On the Belichick play, I think he was an ass to make that call, it was not only an insult to his own defense but the Colts' defense. I do think he was arrogant and sure he'd make it. For all that he deserved not to make it. Going for it on fourth down in your own territory is for people who are behind, not ahead. Oh and am I the only one who thinks Addai laid down at the goal line on purpose to run more time off the clock?

Romo, wow, what a klunker

 

[Got Philk?]

But, I do wonder if our good buddy Bill would have gone for it in a playoff game...

 

[speedracer]

About that bellychick call, when i saw that all i could think of was, that was very Andy Reid of him to make that call. Why even bother having a Defense if you are going to take a chance like that?

Because punting is actually the crazy gamble? (It's not actually crazy, but it's a few percent worse than going for it -- you really, really have to cook the books in order to make the probabilities come out in favor of punting.)

On the Belichick play, I think he was an ass to make that call, it was not only an insult to his own defense but the Colts' defense. I do think he was arrogant and sure he'd make it. For all that he deserved not to make it. Going for it on fourth down in your own territory is for people who are behind, not ahead.

Punting on fourth down would be a huge insult to the brilliant offenses and the two top-5-of-all-time QBs who happened to be playing in the game. If Belichick had punted, he would have deserved to lose because of his arrogance.

...do you see how ridiculous this argument is?

But, I do wonder if our good buddy Bill would have gone for it in a playoff game...

Why would it make a difference? His goal is to maximize his chances of winning the game. The manner in which he wins or loses changes nothing down the road.

Finally (to everyone), if you are a Colts fan, are you happy to see Tom Brady on the field on fourth down there? If the roles were reversed, I can honestly say that I would not be happy to see Peyton Manning going for it.

 

[Got Philk?]

Why would it make a difference? His goal is to maximize his chances of winning the game. The manner in which he wins or loses changes nothing down the road.

You missed my point. My question was not about Sunday night's game. I was thinking about the difference between regular season and playoffs.

Because the Pats pretty much are a lock to make it to the playoffs right now, I wonder if he could gamble a little more. When it comes to playoff time, perhaps he wouldn't gamble as he did since it's one and done?

 

[speedracer]

You missed my point. My question was not about Sunday night's game. I was thinking about the difference between regular season and playoffs.

Because they Pats pretty much are a lock to make it to the playoffs right now, I wonder if he could gamble a little more. When it comes to playoff time, perhaps he wouldn't gamble as he did since it's one and done?

Does the manner in which you lose matter in the playoffs? If it's the AFC championship game and Belichick punts and loses, would it turn into a best-of-3 series? Or is it one-and-out whether he punts or goes for it on fourth down?

 

[Got Philk?]

Good Lord man. All I am saying is that a coach may be more conservative during the playoffs and make anyone...even Manning...go 60 yards for the TD rather than 30.

I don't even disagree with his play call. In fact, if Faulk makes the catch without the slight bobble, he may have had the 1st down. My thinking is it was a regular season game. There are more of those to come. But come playoffs, you should probably play the numbers...and 60-70 yards is longer than 30. That's all.

My point has been made.

 

[speedracer]

Good Lord man. All I am saying is that a coach may be more conservative during the playoffs

I don't know what you mean by "conservative", but if you mean "going with the crowd" or "deferring the moment of truth for as long as possible", Belichick certainly does not do either of these things, regular season or playoffs. "Conservative" certainly does not equate to "optimal".

and make anyone...even Manning...go 60 yards for the TD rather than 30. I don't even disagree with his play call. In fact, if Faulk makes the catch without the slight bobble, he may have had the 1st down. My thinking is it was a regular season game. There are more of those to come.

If you mean that Belichick is going to be more inclined to experiment or otherwise deviate from optimal strategy during the Colts game, that is extremely unlikely. Winning the game helps the Patriots get a home playoff game, and Belichick knows that running one unorthdox play is not going to give him any useful information.

But come playoffs, you should probably play the numbers...and 60-70 yards is longer than 30.

The only way that sentence makes any sense is if you assume that the failure of the fourth down is a fait accompli.

 

[AnnRKeyintheUSA]

Punting on fourth down would be a huge insult to the brilliant offenses and the two top-5-of-all-time QBs who happened to be playing in the game. If Belichick had punted, he would have deserved to lose because of his arrogance.

...do you see how ridiculous this argument is?

No, because the two situations are not equal. Punting is a normal thing to do that happens 99.9% of the time and this was way out of line under the circumstances.

 

[Got Philk?]

The only way that sentence makes any sense is if you assume that the failure of the fourth down is a fait accompli.

Sure...I guess going 70 yards is the same as going 30. Certainly there isn't a 40 yard difference...


Forget it...I can see that we will never have a conversation that gets anywhere. Good luck with that.