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Old 11-12-2018, 11:48 AM   #141
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Oh c’mon, you know I know that.

And as far as heeeeson’s post, all my prior posts worked under the assumption that either all or the latter two of four picks would be protected (because I don’t think anyone is that stupid, but clearly examples prove otherwise). But I entirely disagree that you’re going to necessarily get a better haul than what they got from those main two players. As a probability, that’s just not true and the numbers show that.
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Old 11-12-2018, 01:19 PM   #142
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Minnesota begins to engage seriously with Philadelphia, New Orleans and Houston. New Orleans’ package is headlined by Nikola Mirotic and an unprotected first-round draft pick and the Rockets’ proposal has Eric Gordon, Nene and two first-round picks, sources said. The 76ers come with their proposal around Robert Covington and Dario Saric, leaving the Timberwolves to deliberate.
i mean come on.
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Old 11-12-2018, 01:34 PM   #143
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How do you not take Gordon, Nene and 2 1st rounders over Covington and Brad Pitt's twin brother?
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Old 11-12-2018, 01:40 PM   #144
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The Rockets offer is even worse than I thought. Why the hell would Minnesota want a 35 year old Nene? Even Gordon is 30. That would have been desperation in the fashion that you described earlier over “trying not to get fired.”

Personally I would have opted for the New Orleans offer, just for the unprotected pick from a team that isn’t very good.
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Old 11-12-2018, 01:54 PM   #145
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Oh c’mon, you know I know that.

And as far as heeeeson’s post, all my prior posts worked under the assumption that either all or the latter two of four picks would be protected (because I don’t think anyone is that stupid, but clearly examples prove otherwise). But I entirely disagree that you’re going to necessarily get a better haul than what they got from those main two players. As a probability, that’s just not true and the numbers show that.
There's a fatal flaw in your analysis. Something that you're missing that you simply can not miss when deciding what/who has more value.

You're missing the money.

A 4 year vet with a PER around 15/16 is less valuable than a rookie capable of putting up the same, or even slightly worse, numbers. The 4 year player is at the end of their rookie scale contract and is about to demand a significantly higher pay rate. And that first extension will only be for 3 seasons, and then the player will hit free agency and demand even more of they are of a certain level.

A rookie has 4 years plus 3 on the first extension. You're getting cheaper labor over a longer period of time.

In a league that features both a salary cap and a luxary tax you can not judge value without including cost - both current and projected.

There's also much less risk involved with a low cost rookie, who doesn't really do anything to your cap number vs a vet. If Minnesota decides to resign Covington to, say, 4 years 18 million - and he plateaus - that's dead money. The contract is untradable. It has a negative impact on everything the franchise does from that point out - since they can't trade the deal and can't sign any significant upgrades due to the cap.

If a rookie fails to pan out, there is a very small financial hit to the franchise as their cap number is so small.

You can not judge value without including contract.

There is no secret that the teams that have won the most games over this current CBA - San Antonio, Golden State, Toronto, Boston - are terrific at finding great value in the draft. It allows them to make the other moves needed to remain in contention.
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Old 11-12-2018, 02:13 PM   #146
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I don’t think it’s ‘fatal’ per say. That’s a solid half of a reason why I was calling Houston’s offer worse than I thought. Old players who are making bank with no room for growth, versus Saric as a youngster and Covington who might cost them.

Money goes both ways. Jimmy Butler would cost money. They unloaded that in the trade. It’s ok to bring money back in such a case.
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Old 11-12-2018, 02:18 PM   #147
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NBA 2018-19 Thread

And again, you’re really coming at this as though I’m defending any offer that considered as “good.” They were in a shit position so they got shit offers. Surprise.

Four first round picks, given NBA rules and the assumption that far future picks are protected, is an awful offer. That’s apparently not even what the offer was.
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Old 11-12-2018, 02:36 PM   #148
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I don’t think it’s ‘fatal’ per say. That’s a solid half of a reason why I was calling Houston’s offer worse than I thought. Old players who are making bank with no room for growth, versus Saric as a youngster and Covington who might cost them.

Money goes both ways. Jimmy Butler would cost money. They unloaded that in the trade. It’s ok to bring money back in such a case.
Neither Nene nor Gordon are making "bank"

Nene is on the vet's minimum and was likely only added to make salaries match. Gordon and Covington have similar deals, only Gordon's runs out after next season where as Covington's runs through 2022. Covington is also 27 and likely has hit his peak, as has Gordon.

Saric is still on his rookie deal, but he's an old rookie since he was stashed overseas for two years. Minnesota will have to significantly increase his salary after next season to keep him long-term. It's not inconceivable that he'd get a deal along the lines of the deal Otto Porter got.

So with Houston's deal you get two first round picks, and by 2020 all of that money is off the books - giving you great flexibility.

With the deal they got, if they want to keep Saric long term, by 2020 they're going to be on the hook for around $30 million from this trade, give or take, which is about a quarter of the salary cap.

This means they'll be paying KAT, Wiggins, Saric and Covington in the range of 90 to 100 million dollars in 2020. Toss in Dieng's 17 mill per year and the team is not only capped out, but is in the luxury tax. And with no room to improve and little ability to trade any of these contracts.

They now have a capped out team spending 2 for 1 on the dollar in tax, that is at best a 4 or 5 seed in the west.

So yea - not looking at the money involved, both current and potential, is a fatal flaw in any argument over the value of an asset.
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Old 11-12-2018, 02:50 PM   #149
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Ok mind blown. You’re saying the money coming in from Houston isn’t a lot, and then you’re saying it all comes off the books in 2020 so that gives you flexibility. Which one? Veterans minimum plus a plus player in his prime add up to relatively the cost of Jimmy Butler’s money they sent away.

What good is having “flexibility” when young players still have value? In two years, you can let Nene retire and let Gordon leave the team. Or you can be stuck with a problem of “is it worth to retain this talent that is not yet dried up?” Better problem to have. The whole point is to keep talent, not get rid of it.

Sure, they might be on the hook for $30 million if they want to keep Saric. If they go Houston, they’re currently on the hook for some $15 million for a bunch of money they’re spending with the likely intent of letting it walk. So... spend less than $10 million and choose whether or not to buy in, or be on the hook for $15 million with no real long term purpose at all?
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Old 11-12-2018, 02:50 PM   #150
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This conversation needs to be settled on the basketball court.
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Old 11-12-2018, 07:38 PM   #151
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Ok mind blown. You’re saying the money coming in from Houston isn’t a lot, and then you’re saying it all comes off the books in 2020 so that gives you flexibility. Which one? Veterans minimum plus a plus player in his prime add up to relatively the cost of Jimmy Butler’s money they sent away.

What good is having “flexibility” when young players still have value? In two years, you can let Nene retire and let Gordon leave the team. Or you can be stuck with a problem of “is it worth to retain this talent that is not yet dried up?” Better problem to have. The whole point is to keep talent, not get rid of it.

Sure, they might be on the hook for $30 million if they want to keep Saric. If they go Houston, they’re currently on the hook for some $15 million for a bunch of money they’re spending with the likely intent of letting it walk. So... spend less than $10 million and choose whether or not to buy in, or be on the hook for $15 million with no real long term purpose at all?
the best franchises in any sport with a cap is those who are able to stay nimble enough to have cap flexibility, so that when the right move presents itself they are able to strike, rather than be stuck in salary cap hell with a bunch of okay parts, a mediocre team, and no way out.

The Houston deal would have given them around 30 million dollars in cap space in the 2020-21 season, in addition to two first round picks (i.e. cheap labor, with the potential that one could turn into a high rotational player/starter). Enough to sign a max contract player - who, depending on who it is (and how well they draft), could potentially push them into title contention.

The deal they made means that they'll be forced to make a decision on whether or not to resign Saric. If they do, they'll be capped out ( and likely pushing the luxury tax). Wiggins, Towns, Dieng, Covington and Saric aren't title contenders in your wildest friggin dreams. In the west, where the difference between a 10 seed and a 3 seed can be 3 or 4 games, that team might not even make the playoffs. They're capped out with zero maneuverability - and are forced to take chances on shaky vets who wore out their welcome elsewhere.


I honestly don't know how else to explain this. It's the difference between Boston dumping all of their players for picks and cap space vs, oh i don't know, the Wizards doubling down and getting stuck in salary cap hell with no way out.

If the goal is a championship, you need to be nimble. So sure, apples to apples Saric and Covington might be a better direct haul than Gordon and Nene. But it's not apples to apples. You absolutely can not measure the impact of a deal without plotting out the future financial ramifications of such deal, and whether or not the players AND the money you're inheriting, both in current earnings and future potential payouts, is worth it.

The Wizards matched Otto Porter's restricted deal that he signed with the Nets, and gave John Wall a super max. Because hey! Young talent! Two years later they're regretting it. They can't get out from under it, and nobody wants either contract. They have zero flexibility, and zero hope - other than to take a flyer on known locker room cancers like Dwight Howard and Austin Rivers.

Meanwhile the teams that kept themselves nimble, and made moves to get rid of star players... Toronto, Boston, Indiana, Milwaukee... have all passed them by.
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Old 11-12-2018, 07:54 PM   #152
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Well there’s no point in the two of us beating this poor dead horse. But I hope you enjoyed the pretty pictures. Im rapidly evolving my data arranging capabilities - if ya wanna see something similar just holler
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Old 11-13-2018, 08:52 PM   #153
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Old 11-16-2018, 09:50 PM   #154
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Kyrie, the man.
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Old 11-17-2018, 01:33 PM   #155
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Kyrie, the man.
Hell of a performance.
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Old 11-17-2018, 02:28 PM   #156
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https://deadspin.com/dwight-howard-h...ame-1830513445


https://youtu.be/2g5Hz17C4is
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Old 11-17-2018, 02:39 PM   #157
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Be careful you don't get caught.
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Old 11-17-2018, 06:08 PM   #158
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Old 11-17-2018, 06:21 PM   #159
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Pshht I left at half time
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Old 11-17-2018, 06:56 PM   #160
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This is what I actually do, among other things that don't involve heckling Dwight Howard from the cheap seats

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