NBA 2018-19 Thread

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Headache in a Suitcase said:
Their record is clearly better with him of the court, he's never won shit without LeBron, and you have a superstar in waiting on your team already in Tatum.

Give Hayward another off-season to recover and he's also an all star. Brown is also on the cusp of being an all star. And you still have a shit ton of assets to potentially go trade for someone down the road, much like Philly did.

Kyrie is a diva. He's injury prone. He also may make this discussion moot in the off-season when he bolts.
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Wow, I couldn't disagree more. Maybe Hayward recovers - but I wouldn't bet on a 29-year old with a broken ankle who looked as washed up as he has to all of a sudden be back at his peak. Even without the injury this would be his decline phase.

Tatum is so overhyped at this point, but if you look at his numbers, he has been wholly average this year, and worse than in his rookie season more or less across the board.

And I honestly don't know how you can look at Brown and see "star potential".

Oh, and the shit ton of assets is not really that great at this point - their value is much lower than what it was a year ago, particularly in a weak draft.

Kyrie is a fool, but he's by far the best player on that team.
 
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I'm with gump.
Hayward has been awful. That's the huge money deal that looks like a potential franchise killer. Maybe he'll get back close next year but as we're now heading into March, I have serious doubts.
Rozier has been awful lately, he can't be the #1 point guard on a true contender. Kyrie needs to be the centerpiece. (Until the Brow arrives)

And iyup...the Smart shot is a big part of the problem with this team, guy should be 5th offensive option when he's on the floor with pretty much any combination of the top 8-9 players on the team, yet he chucks that up like he's Steph Curry...ridiculous. I blame Stevens in part for that.
 
I mean...

Hayward's last healthy season

40% from 3
22.2 PER
10.4 Win Share
7.1 Offensive Win Share
27.6 Usage Rate
59.5 True Shooting %

Playing in the Western Conference, where there's no days off (except for when you play a team from the East)

Kyrie from same year

23.0 PER (23rd)
8.9 Win Share
7.4 Offensive Win Share
30.8 Usage Rate
58.0 True Shooting %

His last season wasn't some blip, either. It was in line with what he did the previous 2 years. There was a clear progression, and he was a top wing in the league. The injury was devastating. Let's not now go and revise history into him being lucky to be a max player.

The only real comparison to his injury of a top 20 player was Paul George. George came back after about a year for 6 games. He was not good. Then he had another complete off-season before playing again. He then returned to form in the next season, but still battled with nagging injuries from time to time because of the leg. And his quick recovery (quick as in 18 months) is the exception, not the rule.

There's a chance Hayward will never return to his pre-injury abilities. But using this year as a judge is entirely unfair. And if he still isn't back to his old self next year, it's also entirely unfair to blame his inability to live up to his contract on anything other than that injury. He was robbed of all of his explosiveness. He still doesn't have it back yet. If he can recover that, he can return to his pre injury level of play. If he can't, then he's going to be a very expensive role player.
 
gump said:
Wow, I couldn't disagree more. Maybe Hayward recovers - but I wouldn't bet on a 29-year old with a broken ankle who looked as washed up as he has to all of a sudden be back at his peak. Even without the injury this would be his decline phase.

Tatum is so overhyped at this point, but if you look at his numbers, he has been wholly average this year, and worse than in his rookie season more or less across the board.

And I honestly don't know how you can look at Brown and see "star potential".

Oh, and the shit ton of assets is not really that great at this point - their value is much lower than what it was a year ago, particularly in a weak draft.

Kyrie is a fool, but he's by far the best player on that team.
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I never said he's not the best player on the team right now.

Is he the guy you want to be your best player? Is he a guy who's health history says "ya know? let's almost super max this guy"?

Hayward has two years left at 32 and 34 mil. Bad money if he doesn't regain form, but tradable once he enters the final year of his contract.

Kyrie has knee concerns. Those tend to not to away. They tend to get worse. You want to give him a 5 year deal that will pay him 32, 34, 36, 39 and 41 over the next 5 years? For a guy who also seems to be a chemistry problem? That's what you wanna do?

These bad max/super max contracts aren't tradable until the final year of the deal (unless it's for another problem max/super max).

Look at Houston. They're stuck with Chris Paul's broken down ass. John Wall won't see the court for 2 years, and take home 80 million during that time.

Re: the other guys... I don't think it's a coincidence that they're playing worse now with Kyrie on the floor. He also created needless drama with his LeBron comments, his walk back of his preseason commitment. That hasn't helped.

And no, I'm not saying Terry Rozier is the answer. I'm saying I'd be very hesitant to give a bad chemistry/injury prone/ball killer point guard a near super max contract. ESPECIALLY when you have as many remaining assets as the Celtics do, not only with young talent but with future high draft picks.
 
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Headache in a Suitcase said:
I mean...

Hayward's last healthy season

40% from 3
22.2 PER
10.4 Win Share
7.1 Offensive Win Share
27.6 Usage Rate
59.5 True Shooting %

Playing in the Western Conference, where there's no days off (except for when you play a team from the East)

Kyrie from same year

23.0 PER (23rd)
8.9 Win Share
7.4 Offensive Win Share
30.8 Usage Rate
58.0 True Shooting %

His last season wasn't some blip, either. It was in line with what he did the previous 2 years. There was a clear progression, and he was a top wing in the league. The injury was devastating. Let's not now go and revise history into him being lucky to be a max player.

The only real comparison to his injury of a top 20 player was Paul George. George came back after about a year for 6 games. He was not good. Then he had another complete off-season before playing again. He then returned to form in the next season, but still battled with nagging injuries from time to time because of the leg. And his quick recovery (quick as in 18 months) is the exception, not the rule.

There's a chance Hayward will never return to his pre-injury abilities. But using this year as a judge is entirely unfair. And if he still isn't back to his old self next year, it's also entirely unfair to blame his inability to live up to his contract on anything other than that injury. He was robbed of all of his explosiveness. He still doesn't have it back yet. If he can recover that, he can return to his pre injury level of play. If he can't, then he's going to be a very expensive role player.
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George was 25 and entering his prime. Hayward is 29 and leaving his prime. You have to expect decline, regardless of the injury. It's hard to see Hayward as a positive in the next two years.

Also, the track record of dumping large salaries in the last year of the contract is not as good as it was a few years ago. An expiring contract is not the asset it used to be (look at Kanter as an example).
 
K. I'm not saying George and Hayward are the same. I'm saying that the only star level player of comparison is George, and it took him a year and a half to return to full strength - and that it's unfair to judge whether or not Gordon will be able to recover to close to his pre injury self based on this year.

Contracts in the last year are still tradable when you have an additional asset to attach to it, which the Celtics have in bunches. But even if they can't, they're still out from underneath it in 2 years.
 
I'm not even trying to say that Hayward is a lock to return to all star status. He's clearly not. My only defense of him was the idea that he wasn't an all star caliber player prior to his injury, which simply isn't true.

My main argument is only about Kyrie, and whether it's worth it to give an oft-injured malcontent all that money.
 
I hear you, Headache. Given how Kyrie also factors in the Knicks plan (although I'm supposed to be a Brooklyn Nets fan now!) I also worry.

He's clearly behind KD and Kawhi among the upcoming free agents, but I think he's comfortably above the next tier with Tobias Harris/Kemba (both of whom I like, but they would be pretty bad on max contracts).

Given present day NBA economics, all of them will end up getting max contracts. Kyrie would only be worth it, in my view, if he is the second max to a greater star (KD or Kawhi).
 
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So, the southeast’s been pretty much always bad. But how much worse does it look with the division frontrunners all battling for the #8 seed?
 
There was one play I saw on highlights where there is a long rebound from a Lakers missed three; Kuzma doesn't make any effort for the rebound, despite it being right in his pathway, and then barely jogs back on defense as Ayton throws down a dunk. And that guy is supposed to be the budding superstar and centerpiece of a trade for Anthony Davis. Fucking lol.
 
Well if one is looking for a silver lining for the Celtics, maybe its the lack of Marcus Morris on the floor in the 4th quarter. Perhaps Brad Stevens has finally figured out what the rest of us have known for weeks that Morris' play has dropped off precipitously from the first 2 months of the season when he was the 2nd best player on the team. We'll see if Stevens is smart enough to put Jaylen Brown back in the starting 5 Tuesday in Oakland, my guess is no. And then there's the Terry Rozier issue...obviously he has to play cause Kyrie can't play 48 minutes...but my God does he suck right now. Can't hit an open 3 for his life, finally draws a foul on a 3 and proceeds to go 0-3 at the line....unreal. Maybe just play Wanamaker 10 minutes a night and take your chances. Rozier thought he was going to get big $$$ after his play in the playoffs last year...no shot (well maybe the Knicks).
 
Headache in a Suitcase said:
Amazing how quickly a guy can go from a genius who gets more out of less to being thrown under the bus.
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Maybe he's just more suited to coaching players with average talent like at a mid major in college or during a rebuild in the NBA, but can't control veteran egos. That's what it looks like to me. And his X's and O's have not looked as genius-like this season. We lauded his brilliant out of bounds/out of a timeout plays the past few years...I can't think of one that has looked brilliant this year but can think of several that have looked bad, including a couple final shot possessions that cost them potential wins.
Believe me, the blame goes more so with the players, but its been obvious for a month that Brown after some early season struggles has regained form, yet he continues (until today) to log less minutes than Morris while playing at a significantly higher level. And the Hayward thing reflects poorly on Stevens...Hayward is perceived, right or wrong, as the teacher's pet and he's been terrible most of the season, save the occasional game, yet gets more playing time, and more critical late game playing time, than he's earning. Obviously the injury is (hopefully) the reason behind his struggles, but to quote my friend Shannon C from DC, "can't keep fuckin' that chicken".
 
I think Hayward will be bench ridden come playoff time if he continues to struggle. It's a very hard place for everyone involved. He needs reps to get over the injury, and you invested so much in him that you don't want to just write it off, but at some point he needs to be put aside for the better of the team.
 
Really the only interesting thing in the NBA right now is who comes out of the East.
The Warriors winning it all again is boring.
The Lakers stuff is also boring at this point.
 
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