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Old 01-06-2008, 12:44 AM   #166
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Still haven't seen Jesse James, but Affleck tops Bardem?

He must be pretty damn good then.
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Old 01-06-2008, 12:47 AM   #167
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Quote:
Originally posted by LemonMacPhisto
There's a great critic's round-up on IMDb:

http://imdb.com/features/rto/2008/critics

This is a more comrehensive list:

http://www.moviecitynews.com/awards/...d_critics.html
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Old 01-06-2008, 12:49 AM   #168
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Bardem was great, but Robert Ford was a much more difficult role, and Affleck pulled it off magnificently.
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Old 01-06-2008, 12:56 AM   #169
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Quote:
Originally posted by lazarus



This is a more comrehensive list:

http://www.moviecitynews.com/awards/...d_critics.html
Awesome. It's looking like No Country, Juno, and There Will Be Blood are separating themselves as the frontrunners this year. That's exciting.

I think the noms will end up like this:

No Country
Juno
There Will Be Blood
Sweeney Todd (they need that musical)
probably Diving Bell as the "almost no shot awesome foreign film"

I could be wrong though.

Quote:
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Bardem was great, but Robert Ford was a much more difficult role, and Affleck pulled it off magnificently.
Cool. It's been his year I guess.
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Old 01-06-2008, 12:57 AM   #170
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A tough call. But really, I think it's an unfair categorization. Affleck had what is really the lead role in his film, but he's being promoted as Supporting by the studio because of politics (younger, newer, or breakout actors get pushed downward), and because won the Lead Actor prize at Cannes.

Bardem may loom large over No Country, but it's still a supporting role. You don't get the full glimpse into his life that you do with Lewellyn Moss, or even Ed Tom Bell.

So I'd say if I were voting I'd have to go with Bardem here.
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Old 01-06-2008, 01:02 AM   #171
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Instead of Diving Bell, I should've put Atonement. Not that it doesn't have a shot, but I forgot how much the Academy drools over period pieces.
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Old 01-06-2008, 01:04 AM   #172
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Quote:
Originally posted by LemonMacPhisto


Awesome. It's looking like No Country, Juno, and There Will Be Blood are separating themselves as the frontrunners this year. That's exciting.

I think the noms will end up like this:

No Country
Juno
There Will Be Blood
Sweeney Todd (they need that musical)
probably Diving Bell as the "almost no shot awesome foreign film"

I could be wrong though.

I think you are. Even if Sweeney Todd beats Juno for the Golden Globe (musical/comedy), I still think it has an uphill battle due to all the gore. And a lot of people are left cold by Burton's films.

You're also underestimating the love for British films, and Atonement fits many of the Academy's other weak spots. You need a love story in the final 5 somewhere more than a musical, right?

Into the Wild did very well with the SAG nominations, and those make up the largest percentage of the voting body. Penn commands a pretty great deal of respect.

Also, do not count out Michael Clayton, which isn't nearly as divisive as most of these other films.

My guess at this point would be:

No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton

God knows what will win from that group.
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Old 01-06-2008, 01:06 AM   #173
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Quote:
Originally posted by LemonMacPhisto
Instead of Diving Bell, I should've put Atonement. Not that it doesn't have a shot, but I forgot how much the Academy drools over period pieces.

Well, I guess you already answered my criticism.
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Old 01-06-2008, 01:10 AM   #174
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I haven't heard a single bad thing about Michael Clayton, and there's a legit chance Clooney will win Best Actor over D-Day. Not that I dislike Clooney at all, I think he's a terrific actor who's really getting a groove as a dramatic actor (his Supporting Oscar was well deserved for Syriana), but it's fucking Daniel Day-Lewis.

The guy hasn't won in 19 years and he's the greatest actor living today (other than Bill Murray, but that's personal preference).

I hope either P.T. Anderson or the Coen Bros. win Best Director, they're all more than deserving.
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Old 01-06-2008, 01:14 AM   #175
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I'm secretly praying for a Todd Haynes Best Director win, but I think there's hardly a snowball's chance in hell of that happening.
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Old 01-06-2008, 01:16 AM   #176
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Independent Spirit Awards maybe.
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Old 01-06-2008, 01:50 AM   #177
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Originally posted by Lancemc
I'm secretly praying for a Todd Haynes Best Director win, but I think there's hardly a snowball's chance in hell of that happening.

I'm Not There is going to get 1 nomination.

In a perfect world, it would get recognized for editing and cinematography, but I doubt it. Maybe the latter has a slim chance, but that's it.
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Old 01-06-2008, 02:11 PM   #178
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Do you think they'll nominate Deakins for No Country and Jesse James, or just one of the two?
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Old 01-06-2008, 02:33 PM   #179
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I don't know how one could overlook James/Ford, clearly among the year's best. And Deakins, despite never having won, is a recognizable name among the cinematographers that are responsible for nominating their own.

A double nom isn't an impossibility; it's happened before. And this category is also one that tends to go outside the Best Picture likelies for films that really excelled in this category. In fact, last year was notable in that NONE of the nominated films for cinematography were Best Picture nominees, which was refreshing (though Babel was certainly worthy of acknowledgement here).

As it happens, this year features some BP contenders that are exemplary in their look; There Will Be Blood, No Country For Old Men, The Diving Bell & The Butterfly, and Atonement all are first rate. Outside those films, you have some striking genre work in Sweeney Todd, and an amazing use of digital photography in Zodiac.

If I had to take an early stab, I'd say:

Robert Elswit, There Will Be Blood
Roger Deakins, No Country For Old Men
Janusz Kaminski, The Diving Bell & The Butterfly
Dariusz Wolski, Sweeney Todd
Roger Deakins, James/Ford

On a side note, for some reason, the Editing category is usually less welcoming, often matching up very well with BP, and it's often said that without an editing WIN you're unlikely to win the Big Prize. Strange as some of the best edited films of the year are often genre films or summer blockbusters.
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Old 01-06-2008, 02:35 PM   #180
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(you'll note there's another double nom for guys whose first names end in "usz" and whose last names end in "ski")
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