Headache in a Suitcase said:
you'd rather have brandon roy than adam morriosn.. riiiiiight. ok.
in games vs. teams ranked in the top 25 when they played, adam morrison had 18 points against UConn, 43 points against Michigan State, 25 against Maryland, 34 against Memphis, and 43 against... eh hem... Washington (brandon roy had 10 in that game). that's a 32.6 ppg average against the top 25.
and if stats are meaningless to you, why is it that morrison is in the top 4 of every single NBA draft prospect list i've ever seen?
i will give you that i shouldn't have included washington on the list of teams having unexpected poor seasons.. that was an over-sight on my part.
First, my Roy over Morrison comment was meant for the NBA draft - I would draft Roy over Morrison, because he has more potential to develop into a great player than Adam. Adam can be a tall, poor-defending, poor-ball-handling shooting specialist - a Wally - but nothing more.
But let's compare Roy and Morrison's '05 stats too - I think you'll see that Adam is not so obviously better than Roy as you might think.
PPG
Morrison - 28.4
Roy - 19.9
Yes, Morrison leads substantially in this category. Is that because he's a much better scorer? Or because he shoots more:
MIN
Morrison - 36.5
Roy - 31.3
Roy has five minutes fewer each game to get his numbers. Furthermore:
FG%
Morrison - 49.8%
Roy - 51.1%
Yes, Roy actually makes a higher percentage of his shots than "the next Larry Bird". While it's true that Adam's FG% is expected to be lower because he shoots more, I'm not trying to prove Roy is a better or smarter shooter - just that Adam's numbers are not god-like compared to Brandon. He just shoots more.
Shall we look at non-scoring statistics?
Rebounds per game
Morrison - 5.5
Roy - 5.7
Once again, in fewer minutes too.
Assists per game
Morrison - 1.7
Roy - 4.1
Not even close.
Turnovers
Morrison - 2.3
Roy - 2.4
Here's a stat that Adam wins in (especially when you consider Roy players fewer minutes per game). However, the reason for Roy's TOs in the same reason for his assists - he shares point guard duties with a Dentmon, while Adam has Raivo and Pargo to do it for him. Adam can't really ballhandle. For example:
Assists to Turnovers
Morrison: 0.75
Roy: 1.75
You need to be a good ballhandler to play in the NBA. Or be a Wally, who Adam keeps looking like more and more all the time (again, not a particularly awful thing, but I do believe that is a best-case NBA scenario for Adam).
Do you also want to look at blocks per game, where Brandon Roy
doubles Morrison's numbers? Roy also leads in steals per game. And free throw percentage. Roy even came within 2 boards and 1 assist of a triple double against OSU. A triple double in college ball? Not bad in just 31 minutes.
(And I haven't even mentioned defense, but I guarantee you will not find anyone who commends Morrison on his revolving-door defense. Roy, on the other hand, is usually assigned to guard the other team's most important player, because he's fast enough to guard point guards and big enough to guard forwards. He held Powe to 14 points and 8 boards against Cal, yet guarded Raivio against Gonzaga.)
Now tell me, how is it so obvious that Morrison is so much better than Roy? Do you really believe the number of points scored is that much more important, especially when you consider he plays more per game and shoots at a worse percentage? Is
every other category (offensive and defense) meaningless? I think that Roy is comparable to Morrison (not necessarily better) in college ball, and will be better in the NBA.
No one knows how good Brandon Roy is - one of the downsides to playing out west. Gonzaga has the ESPN contract so everyone can see him play weekly, but Roy and the Pac-10 are stuck on Fox Sports for the next seven years. And considering our games don't start until after 10pm EST... yeah, no one sees the Pac play. Dick Vitale actually left Leon Powe off of his 1st through
5th all-american teams! Fortunately, he had enough insight to correct his previous error of leaving Brandon Roy off his AA team.
(About that 10-point Roy performance against Gonzaga - you're right, it was a bad night for Roy. He got hit with a few questionable fouls early, and only got to play 21 minutes total, most of it with 4 fouls. Roy was seriously depressed about his performance in that game and felt like he let his team down. He promised to not be ineffective again because of dumb fouls, and from what I can tell, he hasn't. He fouled out in the 2-OT game against Arizona [after getting 11 boards, scoring 35 points, and hitting two buzzer-beater, game-tying threes] and once more against the first awful WSU game [27 points in 26 minutes]. But yes, I agree it was a bad game.)
but gonzaga is not barely a top 20 team. you are highly over-rating the effect of playing crap teams that you know you're gonna beat for 2 months after you started the season against a bunch of national powerhouses.
even the most disciplined team would lose their edge.
that said, i could very easily pick gonzaga to be bounced early depending on their bracket... it's very very tough to turn it on against good comp after playing poor comp for so long. i have to see their brackets first.
That's kinda my point - they have lost their edge. If they would be playing teams like MSU and UConn and Washington all year, they probably would be better. Unfortunately for them, they're not any better than they were at the beginning of the year (you could even argue that they're worse). Every other team improves throughout the year as they jell as a team and face stiff competition. Gonzaga (through no fault of their own, I might add), doesn't have that luxury. Consequently, they need to consistently play well against terrible teams, or else they risk stooping to their level. Have you seen their defense? It's terrible. Fortunately for them though, they're in the WCC, and it doesn't matter how bad their defense is because the other team sucks (see LMU missing an uncontested layup when down by one with a few seconds left in the conference championship). Gonzaga has gotten locked in to all sorts of bad tendencies and lazy playing, simply because they don't have to try their hardest. They - right now - are a borderline top-20 team, with Washington, Pittsburgh, George Washington, MSU, etc. If they get a 2 seed, you know who I'm picking to get bounced in the second round (again!).
Seems like really I'm agreeing with you for the most part here, except for their national ranking. I just think it is easy to find 20 teams at least as good as the Zags right now. 4 seed anyone?
march madness
