6 - # of Straya threads or # of times we've changed Prime Minister in a decade?

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I'm really interested in the three-cornered races this year to see how many Lib preferences go to the Nats and vice versa, and how many leak elsewhere. For instance, I expect Indi to be very interesting. It's going to be McGowan vs boorish Nat, so Mirabella will come third. Lib HTVs will suggest preferences to the Nats, but how many will break to McGowan? I am worried that Indi will return to the Coalition, because McGowan did pick up a fairly sizeable vote in 2013 of people who hated Mirabella and didn't have a Nat to vote for instead.
 
Bill's really grown accustomed to using the phrase 'the truth of the matter is' on a constant basis.
 
Axver said:
I'm really interested in the three-cornered races this year to see how many Lib preferences go to the Nats and vice versa, and how many leak elsewhere. For instance, I expect Indi to be very interesting. It's going to be McGowan vs boorish Nat, so Mirabella will come third. Lib HTVs will suggest preferences to the Nats, but how many will break to McGowan? I am worried that Indi will return to the Coalition, because McGowan did pick up a fairly sizeable vote in 2013 of people who hated Mirabella and didn't have a Nat to vote for instead.
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I'm so out of the loop that I thought the Coalition had put three-cornered-contests behind them to some extent. Shows what I know I guess. Well in Indi, who knows what might happen. I could be wrong but I have read whisperings of discontent about McGowan since she got in (ie. her siding with the Abbott government on most matters; that is not what a lot of her supporters put her in there for).
 
Kieran McConville said:
I'm so out of the loop that I thought the Coalition had put three-cornered-contests behind them to some extent. Shows what I know I guess. Well in Indi, who knows what might happen. I could be wrong but I have read whisperings of discontent about McGowan since she got in (ie. her siding with the Abbott government on most matters; that is not what a lot of her supporters put her in there for).
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I actually thought the discontent ran the other way, that there was suspicion she had too much sympathy with urban lefties (there were definitely a bunch of city-dwelling kids born in Indi who went back there in 2013 to work on her campaign) and a worry that in a hung parliament she would side with the ALP. At any rate, Mirabella's attempt to return to politics is already dead with the Coalition putting all its energy into the Nat guy, name I forget, fuckwit who once ran for Family First and made a comment about how some voters would be pleased to vote for a man.

And the Coalition permit three-cornered contests when there is no incumbent member of either party. So they don't run against sitting members of the other party but that's it. (Which gets back to a similar arrangement being unsuitable for the Greens.)
 
That could actually be rather entertaining. It's a pretty decent lineup. I'm tempted.
 
Sweet.

I'll be hosting a colleague visiting from South Africa but I'm sure he can entertain himself for one evening. Or he might even be interested, since he did his PhD in Sydney and we bonded over a shared interest in political history.
 
The Family First bloke was obviously coaxed into it. A debate in the middle of the city against a stack of liberals with what will be a liberal crowd? Idiot.
 
Nah he's got Jacqui Lambie to team up with. She may be most surprising, because not only will the crowd be hostile to her like the Fundies First bloke, but she's also a popular figure of fun.
 
Axver said:
I actually thought the discontent ran the other way, that there was suspicion she had too much sympathy with urban lefties (there were definitely a bunch of city-dwelling kids born in Indi who went back there in 2013 to work on her campaign) and a worry that in a hung parliament she would side with the ALP. At any rate, Mirabella's attempt to return to politics is already dead with the Coalition putting all its energy into the Nat guy, name I forget, fuckwit who once ran for Family First and made a comment about how some voters would be pleased to vote for a man.

And the Coalition permit three-cornered contests when there is no incumbent member of either party. So they don't run against sitting members of the other party but that's it. (Which gets back to a similar arrangement being unsuitable for the Greens.)
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Ok, that refreshes my memory on the three cornered contests thing, I figured it must have been something like that.

I don't get these voters freaking out over their rural independents siding with the ALP on things. The potential must be understood to exist for that to happen. If they want a Coalition MP they should vote for one (and until the Gillard period, they seemed happy to stick with the independent in New England), with all that entails.
 
I suppose that until recently Australians hadn't had to really contemplate or appreciate minority government - as evinced by how many people STILL don't get it and use "minority government" as some sort of slur. So country electorates unhappy with the Coalition could spite them by voting for an independent who would make a lot of noise in parliament that Armidale or wherever was getting a raw deal from the government, and they could pat themselves on the back for electing a True Local Representative who'd stick it to politicians of both parties. Only now have they realised that in a hung parliament that independent rep can't just attack both sides, but will have to side with one at least on confidence and supply if not on all policy. And I don't think people get that this is OK or normal or a sign that the parliamentary system is functioning as designed. The Coalition's scare campaign definitely counts on that.
 
Yes, it certainly does.

In fairness, I'm inclined to think that literal hung parliaments (ties) have been and will remain rare at the federal level. But both 'parties' falling just short, with a bunch of assorted oddbodies in between; that is quite plausible. Eh, what am I talking about, I guess that's just another hung parliament. And given this country is apparently devoid of any transformative political figures, we should not be expecting any landslides anytime soon.

One thing I can never figure out is: why are safe seats safe? Seriously. Let's leave aside seats with astoundingly famous or revered members. Take my own seat of Groom. I'd struggle to provide you with any reason beyond habit/legacy that it has remained with one of the establishment conservative parties more or less constantly since Federation (well it wasn't Groom then, Groom represented it). This isn't your great-grandfather's genteel country city; this is bogan central, with hordes of blow-ins with no roots at all. But it reliably goes LNP. Though interestingly one of the corresponding state seats has been known to swing to Labor (roughly, the north of the city).
 
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FF vs Sex Party is always a fun showdown.

May get some tickets, if only for that.

Not sure what to expect from the Greens and the AEP "exchange of ideas"


Sent from a barge floating through the docks of Dublin
 
Kieran McConville said:
One thing I can never figure out is: why are safe seats safe? Seriously. Let's leave aside seats with astoundingly famous or revered members. Take my own seat of Groom. I'd struggle to provide you with any reason beyond habit/legacy that it has remained with one of the establishment conservative parties more or less constantly since Federation (well it wasn't Groom then, Groom represented it). This isn't your great-grandfather's genteel country city; this is bogan central, with hordes of blow-ins with no roots at all. But it reliably goes LNP. Though interestingly one of the corresponding state seats has been known to swing to Labor (roughly, the north of the city).
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I suppose Howard was probably close to the truth when he defined the Australian population as 40-40-20 - that is, 40% reliably vote LNP, 40% ALP, and 20% swing or go elsewhere, and they are the ones that decide elections. Of course that's been revised recently to 30-30-40 with the drift to minor parties and independents. But it might explain somewhere like Groom, where the balance is 50-40-10 or something. Quite sufficient to keep it securely with one party for extended periods.

intedomine said:
Not sure what to expect from the Greens and the AEP "exchange of ideas"
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Yeah I notice the Sex Party writeup implies this is three groups of one-on-one debates, while the Equality Party's website is a bit less explicit about it: The Great (Alternative) Debate - Australian Equality Party

I hope it's a six-party free-for-all myself.
 
We've got Senate ballots!

Candidates for the 2016 federal election - Australian Electoral Commission

In Victoria, there are 38 groups, plus a whopping SIXTEEN ungrouped candidates. There's normally just four or so! Since there are a total of 53 registered parties that I'm reviewing, that's 69 fucking reviews I'll have to write. I've got about 15 done so far... thank god this is a long campaign.

I may cut those parties that, although registered, are not running in any state, and give a lower priority to those not running in Victoria (though I've already done one for a party only running in Tassie).

Also, I let out a loud "OH FUCK OFF!" in the office when I saw Derryn Hinch got the first spot on the Victorian Senate ballot. He was already in the running for 12th place. Now with the donkey vote boost, I reckon he's a certainty.

Aaaand in Victoria if you only want to vote for the Greens, well, they are standing twelve candidates. So you can vote them 1-12 and that's it, you've fulfilled the instructions to the minimum degree. No other party is standing as many as 12, so even for the Libs or ALP you'd have to choose candidates from at least one other party to fulfil the minimum of 12 preferences.
 
BULLET TRAIN FOR AUSTRALlA IS NOT RUNNING IN VICTORIA THIS TIME.

:(:(:(:(:(
 
Oh my god check out the independent running in Wills, Francesco Timpano!

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=572398312927641&id=377430045757803

WHAT FRANCESCO THINKS OF THE OTHERS PARTIES BASED ON THEIR PERFORMANCE TO DATE ARE;
.
.
L I B E R A L; In government only because their competition are much worse. Steady as she doesn't go anywhere. Still believe in trickle-down economics. Out of steam & ideas?

L A B O R; A divided lot. Responsible for our mountain of debt. They threw away billion$ expecting huge Super Mining Taxes that never eventuated. In opposition refused to let the new government stop the hemorrhaging from the collapsed mining boom. AKA people smugglers boats, 1400+ drowned & Carbon Tax. Think Bill! Think!

G R E E N S; The Communist Party of Australia was dissolved in 1991 & Australian GREENS party was founded in 1992. Wink! Wink! A wolf in sheep’s clothing? Do they wrap poison pills in fairy floss & prey on people’s trust? I think so. Under the GREENS life will be shoe soup in camps & collectives. Your rights & benefits given to illegal immigrants.Australia is risking becoming a third world country particularly by losing control of its standards (building materials in particular) & believing it can compete against third world economies & labour rates.

I N D E P E N D E N T; Francesco Timpano. HE MAY JUST BE YOUR LAST CHANCE. A history of being head hunted to do what the so called best had failed to do. Significant high level experience in the Public Sector & Private Sector. Achieved the impossible in both the public & private sectors. Unlike the Party boys & girls that do nothing & put their hand up when told.
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This is gold.
 
Axver said:
Oh my god check out the independent running in Wills, Francesco Timpano!

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=572398312927641&id=377430045757803



This is gold.
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Why does he put spaces between all the letters in their names? Is this a new thing they teach in the public and/or private sectors? Usually when people go for the ALL CAPS I expect them to start namedropping the LIEberals or the COALition (and yea, verily, they are all of those things, I just hate crank-speak).
 
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But guys, HE MAY JUST BE OUR LAST CHANCE!!!

I love that in another Facebook post he quotes from the notorious New Zealand political blog Whale Oil, which has no credibility whatsoever and was a major subject of Nicky Hager's Dirty Politics book before the last election.

Oh, and I notice that the unendorsed Group B on the Victorian Senate ballot led by David Collyer is actually the Australian Democrats. They have to run as unendorsed independents because they no longer have enough members to be registered as a party with the AEC. Collyer, if memory serves, is a member of the Democrats faction that's in bed with the sustainable population crowd.
 
In hindsight I guess the Australian Democrats' complete immolation was foreseeable. 'Keep the bastards honest' was never enough of a glue to hold together a rag-bag of leftists, libertarians, small-l disaffected Liberals, and uh, I guess the sustainable population crowd.
 
I was meaning to post this. This is the kind of political writing that interests me. Agree with it or disagree with it, there's more meat in this than there is in 30 pages of any FYM thread.

Why Trump Now? It’s the Empire, Stupid | The Nation


But the answer to the “why now?” question needs a larger context: Trumpism is more than merely the culmination of Nixon’s Southern Strategy and the full flowering of white resentment caused by economic dislocation. Similar cycles of dislocation have happened in the past and have given rise to racist populists similar to Trump, such as Huey Long, George Wallace, and Pat Buchanan. But those backlashes remained marginal, contained either geographically or institutionally. Trumpism has broken the constraints, and its threat is that it has a good shot at gaining national power.

Why now? Because Obama came to power in the ruins of neoliberalism and neoconservatism, when empire no longer able to dilute the passions, satisfy the interests, and unify the divisions. Expansion no longer allows an evasion of, in FDR’s words, “painful economic dislocations, social readjustments, and unemployment.”

Washington is still waging a worldwide counterinsurgency, with military bases that span the globe. Yet for the most part, Obama, in cleaning up his predecessor’s mess, has secularized the imperium, reframing global war as a matter of utility, competence, and pragmatism—technocracy. This has made it difficult for the ideological right to muster itself through war and foreign policy. With back-room supervisors preparing kill lists and game boys flying the drones, the romance is over.

When it comes to economics, the official line is still “free trade.” But you only have to look at Mexico and Central America—and the United States, where NAFTA is correlated to a spike in suicide, cancer, drug addiction, racial violence, and incarceration—to know that Bill Clinton’s assertion is now a reality: “the line between our domestic and foreign policies has increasingly disappeared.” But instead of shared prosperity, we have shared immiseration. Global neoliberalism as a sustainable governing policy has reached a dead end.

So, the idea of the frontier—American Exceptionalism’s central metaphor, a symbol of the future, the place where America deflects and dilutes its domestic contradictions into a horizon of endless promises—is dead, a place to be cordoned off. Trump’s wall is more than one-off racism. It taps into this primal shift, of the frontier transformed from possibility to peril, where the world’s surplus population—victims of decades of US trade policy—need to be kept out.
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Kieran McConville said:
In hindsight I guess the Australian Democrats' complete immolation was foreseeable. 'Keep the bastards honest' was never enough of a glue to hold together a rag-bag of leftists, libertarians, small-l disaffected Liberals, and uh, I guess the sustainable population crowd.
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Yeah I'd say there were a few problems that sank the Democrats. First, as you say, who was their actual constituency? Second, their profession to be a centre party between the ALP and Liberals was reflected in their platform in the early days, but as the two major parties drifted, the Democrats did not. They no longer occupied the centre, nor were they the party that represented a capacity to reconcile conflict between the two major parties on hot button issues. They ended up reflecting much of the left that the ALP was gradually abandoning or failing to accommodate, as shown by ex-Democrats joining the Greens.

And third, of course, the fractious personal disputes that became irredeemably toxic by the late nineties.

Kieran McConville said:
I was meaning to post this. This is the kind of political writing that interests me. Agree with it or disagree with it, there's more meat in this than there is in 30 pages of any FYM thread.

Why Trump Now? It’s the Empire, Stupid | The Nation
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An interesting take, and certainly more worthwhile than the repetitive and fruitless back-and-forth in FYM right now.

But this part of the premise I really can't accept:

 There have been many other empires, formal and informal. And many countries have something approximating a frontier. But in no other nation has the idea and experience of expansion been so integral to its nationalism: America, even before it its constitution as an independent republic, was conceived in expansion, its settlers exhibiting what Thomas Hobbes called an “insatiable appetite, or Bulimia, of enlarging Dominion.”
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The US may be a very striking and enduring example, but the claim is overstated in its exclusivity. Australia and New Zealand have comparable experiences. The bush frontier lies at the heart of Australian history and nationalism. And I think somewhere in New Zealand's politics remains the dream of expanding a Pacific frontier.
 
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