6 - # of Straya threads or # of times we've changed Prime Minister in a decade?

[Axver]

In which I crap on about why abolishing the states would be impractical and unworkable: https://www.theguardian.com/comment...arrative-on-abolishing-the-states-is-nonsense

 

[Vlad n U 2]

I enjoyed the article, unsurprisingly! Having a bit of fun trawling the 300 or so comments now.

 

[Axver]

Haha, I'm sticking resolutely to my rule of "never read the comments".

 

[Kieran McConville]

In which I crap on about why abolishing the states would be impractical and unworkable: https://www.theguardian.com/comment...arrative-on-abolishing-the-states-is-nonsense

It's Bob's pet subject, like they used to wheel out Gough in his senior years to talk about... whatever it was that his pet horse was. Good article and of course wholly agreed.

Quite apart from the immovable rock of political and constitutional reality in this picture, there is the not inconsiderable benefit of states as a political counterweight to the Commonwealth.

 

[Kieran McConville]

So on this business of debt phishing on behalf of Centrelink... it is both about what you'd expect from this lot, a moral disgrace, and of approximately zero likelihood of affecting the outcome of the next election. Short memory, must have a.

It's strange as I get older to observe ministers of the national government who are, not merely officials I disagree with, but fairly obviously depraved and evil human beings. They actively hate us.

 

[Kieran McConville]

Haha, I'm sticking resolutely to my rule of "never read the comments".

You never know, 'Tim from Altona' might have some real insights for you.

 

[Axver]

Quite apart from the immovable rock of political and constitutional reality in this picture, there is the not inconsiderable benefit of states as a political counterweight to the Commonwealth.

Absolutely. Partisan though I may be, that brief moment when we had wall-to-wall ALP governments in the early months of the Rudd federal government was not really a positive. Funnily enough, controlling most/all states at the same time as controlling the federal government often doesn't work out for parties, as it exposes plenty of faultlines between their state and federal branches.

And I seriously don't know how anyone can advance the abolition argument seriously. Hawke, of all people, would know you'd need a referendum and that those are notoriously hard to pass on even the most popular, uncontroversial issues. He was also the guy at the helm when the Australia Acts passed and should know all the unanswered constitutional questions about the extent of state sovereignty (i.e. do we have one Queen or seven? Never actually resolved).

So on this business of debt phishing on behalf of Centrelink... it is both about what you'd expect from this lot, a moral disgrace, and of approximately zero likelihood of affecting the outcome of the next election. Short memory, must have a.

It's criminal. It's essentially speculative invoicing, which we know the courts don't view fondly.

The fact, though, that even the Murdoch papers are changing their tune a bit suggests this may keep biting the government. God I hope it does anyway. You're probably right about short memories but I want to believe.

You never know, 'Tim from Altona' might have some real insights for you.

 

[Vlad n U 2]

It's strange as I get older to observe ministers of the national government who are, not merely officials I disagree with, but fairly obviously depraved and evil human beings. They actively hate us.

Has been a gradual progression for me in conjunction with the development of my politics.

You never know, 'Tim from Altona' might have some real insights for you.

 

[Axver]

I usually assume incompetence over malice, but the Liberal lunar right are really testing that assumption.

And I've always assumed malice from the Pauline Hansons of this world.

 

[Kieran McConville]

^ A lot of people who support stuff like the abolition of the states - and certainly a lot who were unimpressed by your 'history lesson', Axver - are living in a sort of 'ideal world' la la land, I find. It's all, 'well of course it would be difficult (read: impossible), but shouldn't we try, because efficiency and cost savings!'

We could put a man on the moon, but we can't abolish the states?! COME ON

The same goes, for different reasons, for the 'abolish the electoral college' crowd in America. It is simply not going to happen, so why even bother talking about it?

 

[Kieran McConville]

Has been a gradual progression for me in conjunction with the development of my politics.

Same, actually.

 

[Kieran McConville]

It's criminal. It's essentially speculative invoicing, which we know the courts don't view fondly.

The fact, though, that even the Murdoch papers are changing their tune a bit suggests this may keep biting the government. God I hope it does anyway. You're probably right about short memories but I want to believe.

I say 'short memory' because the census is already long gone under the bridge and down the creek and that was only five months ago. It's like nothing has any traction anymore. Of course there are also the neverending trickles of outrage over the offshore gulag, but that is less a case of forgetting and more a case of not giving a shit. I doubt more than 10-15% of the public do.

 

[Axver]

^ A lot of people who support stuff like the abolition of the states - and certainly a lot who were unimpressed by your 'history lesson', Axver - are living in a sort of 'ideal world' la la land, I find. It's all, 'well of course it would be difficult (read: impossible), but shouldn't we try, because efficiency and cost savings!'

We could put a man on the moon, but we can't abolish the states?! COME ON

The same goes, for different reasons, for the 'abolish the electoral college' crowd in America. It is simply not going to happen, so why even bother talking about it?

Yep. The merits or otherwise of abolishing the states are essentially irrelevant. It can't be done, so let's talk about how to frame the federation in the best manner. The people who succeed at politics are those who recognise what's possible and do it. Those who seek the impossible fail. (The real visionaries are those who recognise that something thought impossible can actually be done, which is patently not the case here.)

Regarding the US electoral college, I'm no expert but I think the formal barriers to its abolition are not as high as those to the abolition of Australia's states. There the problem is vested interests, and those can shift. The real problem is that only one side of politics is furious about the electoral college, with the Democrats winning the popular vote but losing the college twice in the last five elections. If there had been a third in which the Republicans won the popular vote, there might be more bipartisan momentum. So with suitable conditions - say two elections in a row that go to the loser of the popular vote, but from different parties - reform could be possible.

Also, I'm going to be amused if anyone thinks I'm a Tory or a committed federalist from this article. I'm honestly a little surprised the ALP at government level has always favoured centralisation when so much of the labour movement is about grassroots organisation, and I actually think New Zealand was right to abolish its provinces.

I say 'short memory' because the census is already long gone under the bridge and down the creek and that was only five months ago. It's like nothing has any traction anymore. Of course there are also the neverending trickles of outrage over the offshore gulag, but that is less a case of forgetting and more a case of not giving a shit. I doubt more than 10-15% of the public do.

I think the census was a bit arcane to be a sustained controversy, and I agree with the apathy about the gulags. But Centrelink may hit where it hurts, in western Sydney and southeast Queensland. As I say, I live in hope that something finally sticks to this government of slime and scum.

 

[Kieran McConville]

Regarding the US electoral college, I'm no expert but I think the formal barriers to its abolition are not as high as those to the abolition of Australia's states. There the problem is vested interests, and those can shift. The real problem is that only one side of politics is furious about the electoral college, with the Democrats winning the popular vote but losing the college twice in the last five elections. If there had been a third in which the Republicans won the popular vote, there might be more bipartisan momentum. So with suitable conditions - say two elections in a row that go to the loser of the popular vote, but from different parties - reform could be possible.

Yeah maybe, but as I see it, the US electoral college is fundamentally states-based and is about as likely to be reformed as our federation. Though agreed that if the Republicans lost on a popular vote win, you'd never hear the end of it.

Also, I'm going to be amused if anyone thinks I'm a Tory or a committed federalist from this article. I'm honestly a little surprised the ALP at government level has always favoured centralisation when so much of the labour movement is about grassroots organisation, and I actually think New Zealand was right to abolish its provinces.

I'm not surprised the ALP in government has tended toward centralising efforts. The original labour movement, and labour organisation today, may well be grassroots, but they created the ALP to enact the socialist objective (sure, but those words meant something once) and that really does tend to mean large scale national schemes which states could and have presented an obstacle to. I wonder how different Australia would look today if the particular circumstances of wartime in the 1940s had not ushered in the major shift in income taxing powers.

I think the census was a bit arcane to be a sustained controversy, and I agree with the apathy about the gulags. But Centrelink may hit where it hurts, in western Sydney and southeast Queensland. As I say, I live in hope that something finally sticks to this government of slime and scum.

The census was maybe just arcane enough, but not quite arcane enough not to kill the push for online election voting, for a while anyway.

The government may limp on, but if Turnbull keeps up this rabbit-in-the-hole routine of his whenever trouble strikes, he won't last out the first half of this year. The sheer chutzpah of issuing a Christmas message of love and outreach the same week as your government is trolling pensioners for cash, oh it makes the head spin.

 

[cobl04]

I'm not across the Centrelink stuff, anyone got a decent rundown?

What I do know is that Centrelink is an absolute disgrace, and that's coming from someone who has never had a problem with them.

 

[Kieran McConville]

The gist of it, as I understand, is that the government hatched a scheme that cross-matches data from the ATO with Centrelink data and treats any discrepencies at face value. Which is mindblowing. And discrepencies assumed to represent overpayment or false declaration on the part of the Centrelink 'customer', a bunch of automated debt phishing letters got sent out, with suitably threatening penalties. I believe a major debt collection agency was contracted to do the actual chasing, just for that extra touch of arms-length remove.

I wonder what Pauline Hanson's voters - many of them in quite impoverished areas of regional Australia, many of them probably welfare recipients of one form or another - make of her warm endorsement of this stunt.

 

[Vlad n U 2]

You'd have to have a reasonable idea at this point that Hanson is not and has never been a friend of the poor. Though at the same time that part of her politics is constantly overshadowed by her contempt for the those of a different background to hers.

 

[Kieran McConville]

You'd have to have a reasonable idea at this point that Hanson is not and has never been a friend of the poor. Though at the same time that part of her politics is constantly overshadowed by her contempt for the those of a different background to hers.

Correct, but you have to scratch the surface a little before it becomes clear. If half her voters knew what lifestyle she is really most accustomed to, they'd never vote for her again. Or maybe they would, what do I know.

 

[Axver]

Yeah maybe, but as I see it, the US electoral college is fundamentally states-based and is about as likely to be reformed as our federation. Though agreed that if the Republicans lost on a popular vote win, you'd never hear the end of it.

Yeah, the strength of the states-rights movement may stand against it. But to be honest I'll be a little surprised if the US still has it in its current form in a hundred years' time.

I'm not surprised the ALP in government has tended toward centralising efforts. The original labour movement, and labour organisation today, may well be grassroots, but they created the ALP to enact the socialist objective (sure, but those words meant something once) and that really does tend to mean large scale national schemes which states could and have presented an obstacle to. I wonder how different Australia would look today if the particular circumstances of wartime in the 1940s had not ushered in the major shift in income taxing powers.

Yes, indeed. Income tax is massive. If the states still controlled that Canberra would at times be a sideshow. The federal takeover of that power has, however, conferred a degree of national consistency and wealth redistribution that is desirable. Without federal income taxation, the quality of life in Tasmania, even in its two main centres, would lag well behind that in NSW or Victoria.

On the other hand, what if Curtin and Chifley had achieved all their objectives? Australia would again look very different.

The gist of it, as I understand, is that the government hatched a scheme that cross-matches data from the ATO with Centrelink data and treats any discrepencies at face value. Which is mindblowing. And discrepencies assumed to represent overpayment or false declaration on the part of the Centrelink 'customer', a bunch of automated debt phishing letters got sent out, with suitably threatening penalties. I believe a major debt collection agency was contracted to do the actual chasing, just for that extra touch of arms-length remove.

I wonder what Pauline Hanson's voters - many of them in quite impoverished areas of regional Australia, many of them probably welfare recipients of one form or another - make of her warm endorsement of this stunt.

To add to this with a practical example, it's just insane that they have a data-matching system that only analyses at the yearly level. So if you earned an income for half the year, then lost your job and claimed Newstart legitimately, Centrelink's system averages your income over those weeks in which you were unemployed to allege you should not have received it.

I honestly don't think Hanson's voters care. It's funny how many of them hate the bludgers they see on A Current Affair even as they claim their Centrelink benefits.

 

[Kieran McConville]

Chifley in particular. If he had somehow crashed through on his scheme to nationalise the banks. That, would have been something.

 

[Kieran McConville]

To add to this with a practical example, it's just insane that they have a data-matching system that only analyses at the yearly level. So if you earned an income for half the year, then lost your job and claimed Newstart legitimately, Centrelink's system averages your income over those weeks in which you were unemployed to allege you should not have received it.

I honestly don't think Hanson's voters care. It's funny how many of them hate the bludgers they see on A Current Affair even as they claim their Centrelink benefits.

Yes, it's just those sort of examples that makes a nonsense of this kind of 'big data' exercise.

The thing about Hanson's voters is that they're just people. And - oh I get it, they probably believe all the worst stories about dole bludgers - but I would wager that the population of this country that relies to some extent on support of one kind or another from Centrelink is truly vast. If you counted every sort of veterans' benefit, age pension, single parent whatever (whatever is left these days), top up money for people who have work but not quite enough, disability benefits, on and on and on...

 

[Axver]

Chifley in particular. If he had somehow crashed through on his scheme to nationalise the banks. That, would have been something.

Surely it's one of Australia's ultimate historical counterfactuals. It's difficult to even imagine how the consequences would have played out.

Yes, it's just those sort of examples that makes a nonsense of this kind of 'big data' exercise.

The thing about Hanson's voters is that they're just people. And - oh I get it, they probably believe all the worst stories about dole bludgers - but I would wager that the population of this country that relies to some extent on support of one kind or another from Centrelink is truly vast. If you counted every sort of veterans' benefit, age pension, single parent whatever (whatever is left these days), top up money for people who have work but not quite enough, disability benefits, on and on and on...

I wonder how much of this comes back to the myth of the "deserving poor" that has been around since colonial times - and indeed the original old age pensions were framed very explicitly around helping the "deserving poor" and excluding those who were for one reason or another unworthy. I think a lot of people in receipt of payments view themselves and those they know as worthy people who spend their benefits well, but that some nebulous group out there is unworthy and wasteful. Beat-ups on ACA and in the Murdoch press fuel these fires.

 

[Kieran McConville]

That's just it; I'm worthy (and so is my mum), he's a malingerer, they are welfare cheats. And don't even get started on the Abos.

 

[Tania]

Just to preface, I am not normally a violent person (well, there is hockey but that's different ) but I honestly think I could happily punch this idiot in the face.

Senator David Leyonhjelm calls to restrict pension, says being poor 'nothing to be proud of' - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

 

[Kieran McConville]

As a child once apocryphally remarked upon seeing Winston Churchill's appalling son Randolph emerging from a hotel, 'daddy, what is that man for?'

 

[Kieran McConville]

Just to preface, I am not normally a violent person (well, there is hockey but that's different ) but I honestly think I could happily punch this idiot in the face.

Senator David Leyonhjelm calls to restrict pension, says being poor 'nothing to be proud of' - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

To get more directly to the point, I hope that David Leyonhjelm dies ruined and penniless, turning tricks in some leaky garret to score his next hit. Of course I wish the same for Malcolm Turnbull, Tony Abbott and probably 80% of the current front bench, so, that's not saying much.

 

[Axver]

Latest: being David Leyonhjelm nothing to be proud of.

More at 11.

 

[Kieran McConville]

Did you know Helen Darville was his press officer in the last term? I guess eventually even she bailed. She used to run a slightly interesting blog, but last I saw, 'Skeptic Lawyer' had been abandoned to the devices of the dreadful Lorenzo.

 

[Kieran McConville]

Latest: being David Leyonhjelm nothing to be proud of.

More at 11.

With the (partial) exception of Pauline Hanson, aren't we lucky our local right wing weirdos are so tone deaf? People like Bernadi or this chap, they really don't get it. This fool will be gone in a few years and so will Bernadi if he's ever stupid enough to abandon the kiddie floaters that are the Liberal Party machine. Furthermore I don't regard either of them as conservatives in any coherent sense. Stop and consider what the arch tory Robert Menzies would make of either.

 

[Axver]

Did you know Helen Darville was his press officer in the last term? I guess eventually even she bailed. She used to run a slightly interesting blog, but last I saw, 'Skeptic Lawyer' had been abandoned to the devices of the dreadful Lorenzo.

Let me tell you, around History departments that just made Leyonhjelm an even better punchline to jokes.

With the (partial) exception of Pauline Hanson, aren't we lucky our local right wing weirdos are so tone deaf? People like Bernadi or this chap, they really don't get it. This fool will be gone in a few years and so will Bernadi if he's ever stupid enough to abandon the kiddie floaters that are the Liberal Party machine. Furthermore I don't regard either of them as conservatives in any coherent sense. Stop and consider what the arch tory Robert Menzies would make of either.

Oh absolutely, neither wishes to conserve much of anything. They're revolutionaries of their own kind.

What does leave me befuddled though is how Leyonhjelm got re-elected. There is enough of a crank libertarian base in NSW to keep him in. Admittedly he probably would have failed at a regular half-Senate election, but still...