6 - # of Straya threads or # of times we've changed Prime Minister in a decade?

[Kieran McConville]

Sounds like a surprisingly interesting guy.

 

[Kieran McConville]

He's probably on George Brandis's watchlist now or something; wasn't the grand plan to make travelling to any of these places illegal?

 

[cobl04]

Well if it was a brown kid instead of Wyatt Roy he'd have his passport destroyed.

 

[Axver]

Seriously, what was he even thinking? What an idiot.

 

[cobl04]

I don't see what's so wrong with it?!

 

[Axver]

I don't see what's NOT idiotic. At least when di Natale went to Liberia over ebola it was because he is a sitting MP with professional medical expertise. Wyatt Roy is an ex-MP with no relevant knowledge or experience (or former portfolio) to justify putting himself or - more importantly - others in serious danger, especially as he was using his former status in an entirely unofficial and unapproved manner. It's reckless, foolish, arrogant, and useless.

If he was an ex-ALP MP the Murdoch press would have called for him to have had his citizenship stripped already.

 

[Kieran McConville]

Hey, T.E. Lawrence had no relevant experience. Not that I'm claiming quite that world-historical status for our Wyatt...

 

[Axver]

The ALP has confirmed that it will block the marriage equality plebiscite bill.

Meanwhile, Nationals MPs Andrew Broad and George "please give me the title of Biggest Fuckwit in Parliament" Christensen now say they will withdraw support for the government if Turnbull proceeds with a parliamentary vote on marriage equality. This would remove the Coalition's majority. Assuming the entire crossbench voted with the ALP in a vote of no confidence, it would succeed.

I've said for a while that the Nats need to find their identity and assert it against the Libs, but I never meant in this manner.

 

[cobl04]

Neither of them can hold a candle to Eric Abetz. Media bias means people who switch from homosexual to heterosexual aren't celebrated: Eric Abetz

 

[Axver]

Just thinking about this further, Turnbull could call the bluff of Broad and Christensen and bring on a parliamentary vote.

If Broad and Christensen cross the floor to support a vote of no confidence, almost the entire crossbench will have to also support it. If two of them don't (let's say Katter and McGowan), the government survives 75-74. If there is an MP missing and the vote is deadlocked, the government survives by the speaker's casting vote. That's convention, but with a Liberal speaker it's assured.

And even if there is a successful vote of no confidence, who would form government? Broad and Christensen won't side with the ALP. I suppose what it would do is force Turnbull to step down... but then who's left? Abbott hasn't got sufficient support to come back. JBish? ScoMo? ScoMo is a rat and would do the dirty on anyone but it may not yet be his time and he's cunning enough not to time his run too early. JBish is the sort of person who's quite ready to let everybody else fall and be the last one standing, but she's perhaps seen as too much on Turnbull's side. Soooo... who else is there? Lunatics, by and large, and doubtfully anyone with sufficiently broad support. This is a hilariously divided party.

PS Eric Abetz can get fucked ten ways from Sunday.

 

[Kieran McConville]

I assume an actual successful vote of no confidence (I'll believe that when I see it) would force an election in the event? Maybe I'm missing something. Maybe if the numbers were there for enough (ie. total) crossbench support to allow a Labor administration to move in, but those numbers are not there.

 

[cobl04]

[tweet]785435664988774400[/tweet]

 

[Axver]

An election would only be necessary if no party can command a majority on the floor. I suspect the ALP would fall short at 73 maximum, because if the two rogue Nats decide they won't support Turnbull they sure as shit won't be supporting a party with a policy in favour of marriage equality. Assuming only Katter broke for the Libs from the crossbench they would fall one short on 74 - which is without the speaker's vote, as that is only used in a tie and it's hard to believe anybody would miss a no confidence vote as crucial as this scenario would be (unless they're dying in hospital and even then they might get a pair).

The GG in those circumstances would then dissolve parliament, so I expect at least one other crossbencher to blink and the government (but probably not Turnbull) to survive. Or the rogue Nats would come back into the fold before it's too late for the government/Turnbull. Do you really want to be the MPs who brought down your own government? Especially if your party loses seats? How would you be able to ever show your face in the party with people scowling at you that "hey fuckwit, your support for a no confidence vote cost Bob his seat at the election".

 

[Axver]

[tweet]785435664988774400[/tweet]

Perrett's facial expressions are priceless.

I am also now going to petition my head of department to rename his first year course "Who Gets the Girl?"

 

[Kieran McConville]

An election would only be necessary if no party can command a majority on the floor. I suspect the ALP would fall short at 73 maximum, because if the two rogue Nats decide they won't support Turnbull they sure as shit won't be supporting a party with a policy in favour of marriage equality. Assuming only Katter broke for the Libs from the crossbench they would fall one short on 74 - which is without the speaker's vote, as that is only used in a tie and it's hard to believe anybody would miss a no confidence vote as crucial as this scenario would be (unless they're dying in hospital and even then they might get a pair).

The GG in those circumstances would then dissolve parliament, so I expect at least one other crossbencher to blink and the government (but probably not Turnbull) to survive. Or the rogue Nats would come back into the fold before it's too late for the government/Turnbull. Do you really want to be the MPs who brought down your own government? Especially if your party loses seats? How would you be able to ever show your face in the party with people scowling at you that "hey fuckwit, your support for a no confidence vote cost Bob his seat at the election".

Well indeed, which much of that is why I say I'll believe it when I see it. The Christiansens of this world are blowhards who would have literally no careers outside of the Liberal-National coalition.

 

[Axver]

Oh sweet jesus this is great: Turnbull government accidentally supports Labor in second embarrassing parliamentary blunder

The government really has no idea how to manage parliament. Absolute incompetence, again.

 

[Kieran McConville]

That's nice of them to stuff up like that... sorry, I tried clicking the link, but even on a relatively up-to-date laptop, that Age site is so overloaded in shit it nearly crashed me. And that's with adblocker on. Fuck them.

Short term, my friends. I predict a short term.

 

[Axver]

Tony Abbott continues to be an embarrassment: Tony Abbott says Donald Trump's policies are 'reasonable enough' and his voters are not deplorables

Kieran may never find out the details, even if my relatively up-to-date computer with Adblock has no problem with Fairfax's websites.

 

[Axver]

Any of you following the ACT election this evening?

 

[Kieran McConville]

Tony Abbott continues to be an embarrassment: Tony Abbott says Donald Trump's policies are 'reasonable enough' and his voters are not deplorables

Kieran may never find out the details, even if my relatively up-to-date computer with Adblock has no problem with Fairfax's websites.

A loss I'm sure I'll learn to live with, however grudgingly.

Well what else is Tony Abbott going to say? It's the sort of thing he would say, isn't it? There is a trans-Altlantic/trans-global mutuality of sorts between the UK Farage right, the Trump movement and the... well, there is no Tony Abbott movement, is there. But the local hard right, anyhow.

 

[Kieran McConville]

Any of you following the ACT election this evening?

Can't say I was; who's winning?

 

[Kieran McConville]

All that said, the appropriate response from any journalist to Abbott in re. Donald Trump's policies would have been: "which ones? Name them."

 

[Axver]

Can't say I was; who's winning?

There was a dearth of polling but pundits seemed convinced the ALP was going to lose (after 15 years in power) or have to stitch together minority government with a motley crossbench.

Instead there was a swing against the Libs.

All that said, the appropriate response from any journalist to Abbott in re. Donald Trump's policies would have been: "which ones? Name them."

That would've been a hilarious response to hear.

 

[Kieran McConville]

The ACT government is so insignificant though, it's hard to give much of a shit. But always, always it is good to register a swing against the Liberals.

 

[Axver]

It is an unusual hybrid between a municipal council and a relatively toothless state government. But I wouldn't consider it entirely insignificant: it has proven itself capable of defying the federal government when other more powerful legislatures will not.

Zed Seselja was hilariously awful on the ABC's coverage. Who the fuck is serious when they suggest he's the future of the Liberal Party?

...wait, this is the party where Abbott, Brandis, and Dutton turned out to be the future. Shit.

 

[Kieran McConville]

The future of the Liberal Party was Alexander Downer. In 1994. I think that's about as good as it gets.

Yeah, fair play to them, the ACT government I mean. I guess they can't help but have a role to play given where they are situated.

 

[Axver]

Right now a party of Alexander Downer doesn't seem so awful does it. Or even a party of Peter Costello.

And I think rather poorly of both men.

I also miss the Nats of Tim Fischer.

 

[Kieran McConville]

Right now a party of Alexander Downer doesn't seem so awful does it. Or even a party of Peter Costello.

And I think rather poorly of both men.

I also miss the Nats of Tim Fischer.

Compared to whoever (oh wait, it's Barnaby Joyce) leads the Nationals now, Tim Fischer almost comes off like your slightly batty but pretty likeable uncle who's really into trains.

The ratchet only turns one way. That's the reverse of the more nice-sounding 'the world only spins forwards'.

 

[Axver]

Yeah, the train thing is a good example of how Fischer was very much more in the mould of the agrarian socialist side of the Nats rather than this fuck-off hyper-conservative wing that now seems to be seizing control. It's weird too because if the Young Nats prove anything, rural communities are moving away from that sort of closed Anglo-traditionalism to some extent. While the Young Libs seem to be getting more and more rabidly IPA-esque, the Young Nats from what I've heard are pretty moderate.

 

[Kieran McConville]

It's bizarre alright. I'm not sure about the particulars of the careers of people like George Christiansen (did he come up through the Young Nats - he's not that old - or did he come from somewhere else?).

The culture-war stuff seems pretty clearly a weapon used when fighting from a position of weakness and/or irrelevance. I mean it had less place when the Nationals were powerful enough to deliver on the agrarian-socialist outcomes. It's all shadow-puppetry at this point. The same goes for the Liberals. They can't deliver family values because the marketised society is by definition corrosive to human relations. So wheel out the flag and bang on about halal foods and gays and whatever else.

The Liberals are pretty much enjoying the legacy of Howard, who during his two stints did his best to clear out the 'wets', leaving the party as an avowedly right wing conservative (or really, radical) party. When your favourite philosopher is Ayn Rand, I'm not sure you get to call yourself conservative.