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Old 08-07-2009, 01:15 PM   #16
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Can NLOTH reach 2x Platinum in the US?

I say yes, but it's definitely unlikely. First Crazy Tonight would have to become a major hit, meaning big success on the AAA, Rock, Hot AC formats, and significant airplay in the Top 40 as well. Next I'd say the 4th single (Breathe or Moment of Surrender) would have to become at least a minor hit with solid airplay, keeping the album going for a while. U2 would have to go on several TV shows promoting the album (such as they are rumored to be doing on SNL). The tour would roll through the US, completely sold out and the band would be back in the country for another leg in 2010. NLOTH would also have to win a grammy for Album of the Year and have a great performance at the show. Then I'd say, a couple months after that you'd have your 2x platinum

And how many copies must it sell to be a success?

The album is already a great success IMO. Top selling in the world as of August 6th is outstanding, and to this moment can't be beat by ANY OTHER ARTIST. I would love to see NLOTH hit 5 million WW eventually I think think it's possible, but only if the momentum really keeps going and Crazy Tonight really becomes a global hit song.

not to mention another superbowl halftime
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Old 08-07-2009, 01:25 PM   #17
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[quote=cjboog;6301027]Can NLOTH reach 2x Platinum in the US?

I say yes, but it's definitely unlikely. First Crazy Tonight would have to become a major hit, meaning big success on the AAA, Rock, Hot AC formats, and significant airplay in the Top 40 as well. Next I'd say the 4th single (Breathe or Moment of Surrender) would have to become at least a minor hit with solid airplay, keeping the album going for a while. U2 would have to go on several TV shows promoting the album (such as they are rumored to be doing on SNL). The tour would roll through the US, completely sold out and the band would be back in the country for another leg in 2010. NLOTH would also have to win a grammy for Album of the Year and have a great performance at the show. Then I'd say, a couple months after that you'd have your 2x platinum

quote]

What kind of boost did HTDAAB get when it won for album of the year? I personally think this could be the number one factor to put it over the top for 2X Platinum in the US. By the time the Grammies roll around U2 will probably be around 1.1 - 1.3 million in the US depending on how well the singles do. They will be far from 2 million at that point. If they win a ton of Grammies they have a chance at maybe 500,000 in additional sales from that don't you think?

I'd appreciate your input.
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Old 08-07-2009, 01:33 PM   #18
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200k extra at most i would say.
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Old 08-07-2009, 07:47 PM   #19
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[QUOTE=RPRB;6304647]
Quote:
Originally Posted by cjboog View Post
Can NLOTH reach 2x Platinum in the US?

I say yes, but it's definitely unlikely. First Crazy Tonight would have to become a major hit, meaning big success on the AAA, Rock, Hot AC formats, and significant airplay in the Top 40 as well. Next I'd say the 4th single (Breathe or Moment of Surrender) would have to become at least a minor hit with solid airplay, keeping the album going for a while. U2 would have to go on several TV shows promoting the album (such as they are rumored to be doing on SNL). The tour would roll through the US, completely sold out and the band would be back in the country for another leg in 2010. NLOTH would also have to win a grammy for Album of the Year and have a great performance at the show. Then I'd say, a couple months after that you'd have your 2x platinum

quote]

What kind of boost did HTDAAB get when it won for album of the year? I personally think this could be the number one factor to put it over the top for 2X Platinum in the US. By the time the Grammies roll around U2 will probably be around 1.1 - 1.3 million in the US depending on how well the singles do. They will be far from 2 million at that point. If they win a ton of Grammies they have a chance at maybe 500,000 in additional sales from that don't you think?

I'd appreciate your input.
I don´t think the grammies would bring 500,000 additional copies for NLOTH. For ATYCLB (it didn´t win album of the year but 7 grammies overall) and HTDAAB (8 grammies) the sales surplus was about 200 K and 100 K, respectively.
The only shot the album has at doubling its sales in the US is Crazy tonight.
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Old 08-07-2009, 08:41 PM   #20
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not to mention another superbowl halftime
what do you mean by that?
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Old 08-08-2009, 02:22 AM   #21
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I don´t think the grammies would bring 500,000 additional copies for NLOTH. For ATYCLB (it didn´t win album of the year but 7 grammies overall) and HTDAAB (8 grammies) the sales surplus was about 200 K and 100 K, respectively.
The only shot the album has at doubling its sales in the US is Crazy tonight.
There is a sales jump, though, and it can help.

Both of those albums saw a huge rise on the charts thanks to their Grammy victories. ATYCLB actually rose back to the Top 10, where it spent only its third week there (the other two weeks were the first two weeks of its release - this is proof that an album can sell huge, even if it's not near the top of the charts each week). If NLOTH could have a rise like that, it could be significant.

Also, by the time these Grammy victories came, both albums already had strong sales - meaning, most fans and casual fans already owned the album. The extra exposure and wins gave the albums an additional boost, but as you wrote, not much - and not much was needed.

In contrast, NLOTH has seen a fraction of the sales those two albums enjoyed. So if it were to have some big wins in Feb. or March of next year (depending on when the Grammies are held), this could have a more powerful impact as some fans and casual fans may decide to finally buy the album.
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Old 08-08-2009, 12:30 PM   #22
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There is a sales jump, though, and it can help.

Both of those albums saw a huge rise on the charts thanks to their Grammy victories. ATYCLB actually rose back to the Top 10, where it spent only its third week there (the other two weeks were the first two weeks of its release - this is proof that an album can sell huge, even if it's not near the top of the charts each week). If NLOTH could have a rise like that, it could be significant.

Also, by the time these Grammy victories came, both albums already had strong sales - meaning, most fans and casual fans already owned the album. The extra exposure and wins gave the albums an additional boost, but as you wrote, not much - and not much was needed.

In contrast, NLOTH has seen a fraction of the sales those two albums enjoyed. So if it were to have some big wins in Feb. or March of next year (depending on when the Grammies are held), this could have a more powerful impact as some fans and casual fans may decide to finally buy the album.
Right on the money doctorwho. Still, given the current market situation it is highly unlikely that grammies alone would earn NLOTH half million copies or more. Here's hoping.
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Old 08-08-2009, 09:25 PM   #23
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Also, by the time these Grammy victories came, both albums already had strong sales - meaning, most fans and casual fans already owned the album. The extra exposure and wins gave the albums an additional boost, but as you wrote, not much - and not much was needed.

In contrast, NLOTH has seen a fraction of the sales those two albums enjoyed. So if it were to have some big wins in Feb. or March of next year (depending on when the Grammies are held), this could have a more powerful impact as some fans and casual fans may decide to finally buy the album.
BINGO.

Just think about it. Right now NLOTH has sold roughly 960,000 copies in the US. ATYCLB sold something like 4,200,000. So there are roughly 3.240 million people living in the US who purchased that album but do not own NLOTH. Grammy victories are widely reported and I believe roughly 20 million people watch the show. A U2 victory for an album that has not sold very many copies comparatively to recent albums has a lot more potential U2 fans/U2 buyers who could still be influenced to buy the album with something like a grammy win or a hit song they hear and like. So a grammy win would help, but I think all that other stuff (Crazy being a hit, several TV appearances, etc.) would have to happen as well.
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Old 08-08-2009, 09:34 PM   #24
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i guess the Grammies aren't completely irrelevant afterall
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Old 08-09-2009, 05:56 AM   #25
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BINGO.

Just think about it. Right now NLOTH has sold roughly 960,000 copies in the US. ATYCLB sold something like 4,200,000. So there are roughly 3.240 million people living in the US who purchased that album but do not own NLOTH. Grammy victories are widely reported and I believe roughly 20 million people watch the show. A U2 victory for an album that has not sold very many copies comparatively to recent albums has a lot more potential U2 fans/U2 buyers who could still be influenced to buy the album with something like a grammy win or a hit song they hear and like. So a grammy win would help, but I think all that other stuff (Crazy being a hit, several TV appearances, etc.) would have to happen as well.
3.24m who purchased ATYCLB who havent purchased NLOTH, does not mean to say that these 3.24m (among many others) have not obtained it free of charge whether from filesharing, CD burning, whatever.
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Old 08-09-2009, 01:18 PM   #26
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3.24m who purchased ATYCLB who havent purchased NLOTH, does not mean to say that these 3.24m (among many others) have not obtained it free of charge whether from filesharing, CD burning, whatever.
Does not mean the 3.24 million actually liked ATYCLB, there's a million variables when you look at this that it's pretty much impossible to say there's an extra 3 million possible sales out there
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Old 08-10-2009, 11:53 AM   #27
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BINGO.

Just think about it. Right now NLOTH has sold roughly 960,000 copies in the US. ATYCLB sold something like 4,200,000. So there are roughly 3.240 million people living in the US who purchased that album but do not own NLOTH.
Thats incorrect. Welcome to the 21st century where owning an album does not mean that you actually purchased it. We know that 965,000 people have legally purchased the album, but given that most people obtain the music they want without actually buying it in 2009, its not possible to say really how many people actually own the album. Its entirely possible to say that everyone who purchased ATYCLB has obtained NLOTH either through a store or online purchase, or by downloading the album for free, or burning it from a someone they know with the album.

What we can objectively say is that as of right now, NLOTH is the best selling album of 2009 WORLDWIDE, and it is the 8th best selling album in the United States for 2009.
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Old 08-10-2009, 12:41 PM   #28
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illegal downloading + bad economy + no real radio friendly songs (I personally love the album)= no 2x platinum for NLOTH in the US.
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Old 08-10-2009, 03:32 PM   #29
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As things are starting to look up in the economy, it may well turn out that U2 actually released NLOTH very close to the peak of the recession. Many would- bealbum buyers may have finally turned to the dark side of free downloading simply because times were tough--but they could be back. It will be very difficult to predict how well sales could pick up if the economy really starts surging during the tour. There are also many people who believe that MOS and/or Breathe could be big singles (I'm skeptical myself) and it seems as if Crazy is doing quite well. Interesting times.
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Old 08-10-2009, 07:59 PM   #30
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Thats incorrect. Welcome to the 21st century where owning an album does not mean that you actually purchased it.
Although I can't find the story now, I remember reading some article after the first week of release that half a million people downloaded NLOTH illegally online in the first week of its release. Considering the album actually SOLD something like 1.2 million copies in its first, I was operating under the assumption that while huge numbers of people pirate music, there's still a larger number who purchase their music legally. Even if you disagree with that statement, you'd have to argue that for every person that buys full albums legally, there are more than four that download/copy full albums illegally to argue that possibly more people "own" NLOTH than ATYCLB. (960,000 vs 4,200,000)

So I highly doubt that as many/more people out there have a copy of NLOTH than have a copy of ATYCLB mainly because "Beautiful Day" was such a huge song and NLOTH has not had any really lasting hit singles to cause people to go out and buy the album.

The point I was trying to make was this: There are probably a lot of people out there who own past U2 albums that don't own NLOTH. Just from the success of the singles alone, you can speculate on that. Sure, we don't have any real hard data, but I think most people watching the charts would agree with me. Generally with U2 albums, the better charting the singles - the higher the album sales. GOYB wasn't well received, it dropped right off the charts when it reached its peak. Magnificent didn't have a fraction of the chart success that Beautiful Day and Vertigo had. So operating under the assumption that NLOTH has not been as successful as some previous U2 albums (at least in the US), it stands to reason that there are probably a lot casual U2 fans out there who don't own this album. And it's just common sense that more exposure from another hit single/TV appearances/a grammy win would lead to increased sales, especially among those U2 fans who don't own the new album yet.

Beautiful Day and Vertigo were massive hit songs that were all over the radio and that most people instantly recognize. They caused the albums they were on to sell boatloads of copies. Get On Your Boots and Magnificent, while they performed fine in some markets, just weren't big hits in the US. So while NLOTH has sold respectably here, I don't think I'm way off in assuming that there are probably a good number of "U2 fans" (meaning people who like U2 generally, or have bought some of their albums in the past) who don't own/haven't downloaded this one yet.
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