Will NLOTH reach double platinum in the US.

[Maoilbheannacht]

Many would- bealbum buyers may have finally turned to the dark side of free downloading simply because times were tough--but they could be back.

Highly unlikely. The majority of people once they discover how easy it is to obtain something for free are unlikely to go back to purchasing it.

As things are starting to look up in the economy, it may well turn out that U2 actually released NLOTH very close to the peak of the recession.

Even if the recession technically ends in the next quarter, it does not mean the average consumer will start buying again. In fact, unemployment often continues to rise 12 to 18 months after the end of a recession.

Then there is the natural decline in the music industry year after year which has been happening since 2000 regardless of the state of the economy.

Last week on the Billboard top 200, the #200 album only sold 2,220 copies, the #100 album only sold 3,900 copies, and U2 were at #71 with 5,500 copies. Back in 2000, you had to sell at least 7,500 copies just to make it on the chart at the #200 position.

Also, just because the economy comes out of a recession does not mean its going to be surging.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Although I can't find the story now, I remember reading some article after the first week of release that half a million people downloaded NLOTH illegally online in the first week of its release. Considering the album actually SOLD something like 1.2 million copies in its first, I was operating under the assumption that while huge numbers of people pirate music, there's still a larger number who purchase their music legally. Even if you disagree with that statement, you'd have to argue that for every person that buys full albums legally, there are more than four that download/copy full albums illegally to argue that possibly more people "own" NLOTH than ATYCLB. (960,000 vs 4,200,000)

There were half a million people who downloaded the album on services that were TRACKED, but that does not include services that are not tracked, especially individuals who pass the music around or simply bring it into work for everyone to upload or burn a copy. The majority of people who obtain music today do so without buying it.

There is no way to actually know, how many people have obtained the album without buying. What we do know is that with 965,000 copies sold, NLOTH is the 8th biggest selling album of 2009 at this point in the United States. Worldwide it is currently the biggest selling album of the year. So based on how it is doing VS other albums this year, it is selling equal to or better than MOST U2 albums from the past.

Beautiful Day and Vertigo were massive hit songs that were all over the radio and that most people instantly recognize. They caused the albums they were on to sell boatloads of copies. Get On Your Boots and Magnificent, while they performed fine in some markets, just weren't big hits in the US. So while NLOTH has sold respectably here, I don't think I'm way off in assuming that there are probably a good number of "U2 fans" (meaning people who like U2 generally, or have bought some of their albums in the past) who don't own/haven't downloaded this one yet.

Guess where HTDAAB finished on the US album charts for the year 2005? It finished at #8. Thats where NLOTH currently is, #8 for 2009. If you want to know how well NLOTH does VS ATYCLB, or HTDAAB, look at how it finishes the year on the sales chart VS how those past albums did. Thats the only way you can accurately compare the two.

 

[bram]

Regardless, it's still relevant that U2 released their album at the height of a pretty bad recession. I'm definitely not suggesting that they'll go double platinum, but I think they could do very well in the 2nd half of 2009 in the US with tour + better economy + bigger/better-promoted singles + holidays. And of course when I say 'very well' I mean 'very well--given the state of the record industry'. I'm well aware of what the market is like now and relative sales are obviously the point of interest here.

 

[buzzkill27]

As of now, NLOTH is not certified platinum. Does anyone think it will have a significant surge in sales in coming months. Lastly, how many albums does NLOTH have to sell worldwide to be deemed a success.

As some others have said no....2X Platinum...are you high??

The album is only going to break the platinum mark once unless someway "Crazy Tonight" really starts getting played by top 40 radio sations all over the U.S.The album will certainly pick up in sales once U2 hits these shores but double platinum is out of the question.

As far as rock radio goes,fuck them.......barely any rock stations across the U.S. play U2,certainly not anything new from the band...that's been the way its been in the US for years when it comes to U2.I hope the majority of these shitty rock stations in the U.S. fail since the play the worst tripe known to man...its why I bought satellite radio a year ago and I havent looked back

 

[buzzkill27]

Mirrorballman, there are two things I know for certain:

1-The sun will rise tomorrow

2-U2 haters will always find a reason to say U2 are "old", "past their prime", "should have stopped making music after the Joshua Tree", "Bono is a dick", "Bone <insert negative comment>", "U2 sucks", "Echo and the Bunnymen were better", ect....

As long as you like the album, thats all that matters (and the fact that it will be one of the top sellers WW come year-end )

Exactly Cosmo

As far as the current sales for No Line On The Horizon goes:

1.) We could argue the "ageism" issue although that hasn't affected a band like AC/DC who are at least 10 years older in age than U2 's members...the difference is that AC/DC gets played at every single rock radio station in the country and U2 hardly gets played at any......most rock radio stations in the U.S. have always ignored U2's music...the occasional U2 song might get on their stations.....at 3 a.m.

2.) The Bono effect...lets face it as this stage,his omnipresence certainly rubs people the wrong way and it carries over to the band

3.) Albums dont sell,singles do...have enough hit singles on an album and well,you know.....Lady Do Do can attest to that...her album only recently took off...for a while it was only her singles that were selling

 

[fedeu2]

Guess where HTDAAB finished on the US album charts for the year 2005? It finished at #8. Thats where NLOTH currently is, #8 for 2009. If you want to know how well NLOTH does VS ATYCLB, or HTDAAB, look at how it finishes the year on the sales chart VS how those past albums did. Thats the only way you can accurately compare the two.

Hmm, I don´t think it is fair to compare NLOTH with HTDAAB and ATYCLB in terms of calendar years 'cos the latter two had most of their sales split between 2000-2001 and 2004-2005, respectively.
If you only consider 2005 sales for the bomb you´re missing sales of relaese week which as we all know were HUGE.

Given the ever dwindling market size and the heterogeneity of sales behavior along the year I have come to the conclusion there is no accurate way to compare album performances unless they are released at about the same time and in the same year. That´s why the key point here is to compare NLOTH with Relapse and 21st century breakdown. And so far, NLOTH is the clear winner.

 

[mikeuk]

Hmm, I don´t think it is fair to compare NLOTH with HTDAAB and ATYCLB in terms of calendar years 'cos the latter two had most of their sales split between 2000-2001 and 2004-2005, respectively.
If you only consider 2005 sales for the bomb you´re missing sales of relaese week which as we all know were HUGE.

Given the ever dwindling market size and the heterogeneity of sales behavior along the year I have come to the conclusion there is no accurate way to compare album performances unless they are released at about the same time and in the same year. That´s why the key point here is to compare NLOTH with Relapse and 21st century breakdown. And so far, NLOTH is the clear winner.

point well made _ U2 still (iro new releases this year) well ahead Mike ps bring om wembley !!!

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Hmm, I don´t think it is fair to compare NLOTH with HTDAAB and ATYCLB in terms of calendar years 'cos the latter two had most of their sales split between 2000-2001 and 2004-2005, respectively.
If you only consider 2005 sales for the bomb you´re missing sales of relaese week which as we all know were HUGE.

Actually, I made a mistake with my comparisons. I used NLOTH position Year TO Date sales for the calendar year soundscan chart, and used the Billboard year(November to November) for HTDAAB.

HTDAAB first week was recorded for the 2005 Billboard year, so all of its major sales week were counted in the 2005 Billboard year which ran from November 2004 to November 2005. On the Billboard year chart for 2009, NLOTH is currently at #13 compared to the #8 finish that HTDAAB had in 2005. But remember, that NLOTH was released several months after the start date for the Billboard year 2009, while HTDAAB was released the first week that counted for Billboard year 2005.

So considering all that its a very similar performance.

For ATYCLB, what you would need to do is get soundscan data for 2001 Billboard year and soundscan calander year, and then set ATYCLB first 52 weeks on chart against that and see where it would have finished if all of its first 52 weeks were counted in 2001. Then an accurate comparison, based on where it would have finished, could be made.

 

[cjboog]

So considering all that its a very similar performance.

But when all is said and done this year, NLOTH could be something like #17 on the year compared with #8 for HTDAAB, which is clearly not the same level of success. There are still a lot of albums to be released in this calendar year and because NLOTH hasn't gotten great airplay, other albums may have longer legs.

And I understand that all we know is the hard numbers and it's fairly impossible to compare. I also understand what you're saying about illegal downloads and copies and I'm sure you are probably right. But I think we can get a general sense of the level of cultural prominence an album achieves based on a number of things.

For ATYCLB, Beautiful Day became this decade's iconic U2 song that is recognized by almost every casual, mainstream music listener in the world. The album doubled the sales of its predecessor and made U2 the "biggest band in the world" again.

For HTDAAB, Vertigo was the smash hit single that again, most casual mainstream music listeners are aware of. The album won a boatload of Grammy Awards and had one of the most successful tours in history. The itunes ad put new U2 in the living room of every house in America.

For NLOTH, while it has been a clear success and one of the top selling albums of the year (globally) to this point, I don't feel it has reached the same level of cultural prominence and impact as those other albums. GOYB was poorly received and was not a major hit like other lead U2 singles. Magnificent (A song I absolutely adore) failed to break into any significant chart success. How are casual music listeners supposed to find out about this album? GOYB dropped right off the chart. There's no airplay for the new songs (Blackberry ad is helping). The reviews were not as good for NLOTH as the past two albums (per Metacritic).

So I don't want to be a debbie downer because I love this album and I'm very happy that it has been such a commercial success for U2. I watch the charts meticulously because I want to see more and more people buy and experience this great music. But I just have a sense that until NLOTH gets a real hit song, it will never really have had the same chance that ATYCLB and HTDAAB did to reach a wider audience and have a really big impact in the music world and expand U2's fanbase. Without a hit, I just always feel like the album is not selling as much as it could, despite the success. I hope Crazy Tonight is that song. And don't look now, but I'll Go Crazy is now #22 on iTunes top 100 Rock Songs!! Last time I checked it was in the 70's so there's been a big jump. Granted, there are only 9 rock songs in the top 100 iTunes songs, but the airplay continues to slowly build so maybe the song is starting to catch on!

Edit:

And there's a way to go to. We don't know the grammy results yet. We don't know how all the singles will play out. We don't know how NLOTH will fare on end of the year lists. Something like being ranked #1 album of the year by Rolling Stone would raise the status of NLOTH in my view and hopefully help lead to some more sales, etc.

 

[phommel]

I understand the changes in the music industry, but I see a crappy band such as Coldplay sell over seven million copies a year ago on a mildly entertaining album. I personally loath Coldplay and hate the comparison of the two bands. To me, NLOTH is a success and a truly great album that has been thrown under the bus because of Bono's ego.

Taylor Swift's album fearless came out last October or November and has had an great run on the charts.

For some strange reason, I feel the band could have sold more albums in the US if they did more or made a stronger effort to interact with fans like in 2004 (the concert under the Brooklyn Bridge; performing on Letterman was to one demensional). I do believe they are the biggest band in the world, and could have sold an incredible amount of records if they wanted to. They have nothing to prove to anyone, but as a loyal fan I am upset and annoyed that Coldplay will outsell them.

The difference is that Coldplay had very catchy radio-friendly music. Viva la vida is probably respinsable for the largest part of their succes. The same for Kings Of Leon, they also had this catchy radio-hit. U2 has a great album, better than teh other 2 mentioned imo. However, success is measured by commercial success. I don't think the way of promoting is the most important. What si important is to be played on the radio.

 

[Irishteen]

Crazy is on the itunes top 300 in the US, it's 188 I think. Magnificent never dinted it after it's first week, so good news

 

[U2FloridaFan]

And don't look now, but I'll Go Crazy is now #22 on iTunes top 100 Rock Songs!! Last time I checked it was in the 70's so there's been a big jump.

Air that Blackberry ad more!!!!!

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

But when all is said and done this year, NLOTH could be something like #17 on the year compared with #8 for HTDAAB, which is clearly not the same level of success. There are still a lot of albums to be released in this calendar year and because NLOTH hasn't gotten great airplay, other albums may have longer legs.

There are only 15 weeks left in the Billboard year, and with NLOTH at #13, its unlikely to be surpassed by any newly released album. It could drop a few more spots, but remember, this album was release in March, while HTDAAB had the benefit of being released the last week in November and had all of its weeks on chart count on the 2005 chart to land at #8. So when you adjust for that, finishing at #13 when the album was only released in March with only 9 months of the year to sell in, compared to HTDAAB that had all of its first 12 months counted for 2005, you could say that finishing at #13 for NLOTH is actually better than HTDAAB #8 finish.

By contrast, POP finished at #45 for the year in 1997.

For ATYCLB, Beautiful Day became this decade's iconic U2 song that is recognized by almost every casual, mainstream music listener in the world. The album doubled the sales of its predecessor and made U2 the "biggest band in the world" again.

In the United States, Beautiful Day peaked at #19 on the HOT 100 Airplay only chart.

By contrast here are the following peaks for the 3 singles that charted from pop on the HOT 100 Airplay only chart:

Discotheque #22
Staring At The Sun #16
Last Night On Earth #74

POP recieved more radio airplay than ATYCLB in total, yet it sold much less. So just recieving lots of airplay does not mean an album will sell well, although it certainly does not hurt.

For HTDAAB, Vertigo was the smash hit single that again, most casual mainstream music listeners are aware of. The album won a boatload of Grammy Awards and had one of the most successful tours in history. The itunes ad put new U2 in the living room of every house in America.

In the United States Vertigo peaked at #30 on the HOT 100 Airplay only chart. Compare that to the #16 peak of "Staring at The Sun", or the #7 peak of One or the #1 peaks for "With Or With Out You, and ISHFWILF.

We have yet to see how many awards NLOTH will win, but it is the best selling album worldwide to date for 2009, and the tour will almost gross double of what the Vertigo Tour did. This tour for this album will in fact be the most successful tour in history.

For NLOTH, while it has been a clear success and one of the top selling albums of the year (globally) to this point

Correction! It is the top selling album of the year globally, and one of the best sellers of the year in the United States!

GOYB was poorly received and was not a major hit like other lead U2 singles. Magnificent (A song I absolutely adore) failed to break into any significant chart success. How are casual music listeners supposed to find out about this album? GOYB dropped right off the chart. There's no airplay for the new songs (Blackberry ad is helping). The reviews were not as good for NLOTH as the past two albums (per Metacritic).

As shown above, the POP album recieved more radio airplay than ATYCLB or HTDAAB, but I don't think you would claim that the POP album was a better recieved album than ATYCLB or HTDAAB especially since it only sold 1/3 or 1/2 has many copies.

But I just have a sense that until NLOTH gets a real hit song, it will never really have had the same chance that ATYCLB and HTDAAB did to reach a wider audience and have a really big impact in the music world and expand U2's fanbase. Without a hit, I just always feel like the album is not selling as much as it could, despite the success.

Remember, unlike ATYCLB and HTDAAB, NLOTH is the best selling album of the year worldwide, at least at this point.