Week21

[fedeu2]

Not a good idea to be using a music chart that over inflates sales levels. Lady GaGa by the way just recently went platinum in Europe according to the IFPI. The music chart your using as a source would suggest that nearly half of GaGa's sales come from outside the United States and Europe.


With only 5 months left in 2009, NLOTH is the only album released in 2009 to have sold 1 million or more copies in Europe.

Well, a similar statement could be made in relation to NLOTH. US and Europe combined sales are at roughly 2 M so, according to MusicCharts, 1,5 M (i.e. 43 % of total sales) were sold in ROW. I don´t know, maybe this is the current trend? That is, with illegal download and such one would tend to think that sales are affected the most in developing countries where Internet access is more widespread than in Third World countries. As a result, the usual share of global sales corresponding to ROW (33%) may have increased.
But you´re right, 40-50% seems a bit farfetched.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Well, a similar statement could be made in relation to NLOTH. US and Europe combined sales are at roughly 2 M so, according to MusicCharts, 1,5 M (i.e. 43 % of total sales) were sold in ROW. I don´t know, maybe this is the current trend? That is, with illegal download and such one would tend to think that sales are affected the most in developing countries where Internet access is more widespread than in Third World countries. As a result, the usual share of global sales corresponding to ROW (33%) may have increased.
But you´re right, 40-50% seems a bit farfetched.

Well, with mediatraffic, sales are at 3.1 million with 2 million from the United States and Europe. This right in line with the past sales of many U2 albums with the USA and Europe representing 65% to 70% of all of U2 sales and it also fits the market share that the USA and Europe have for all music sales at 65% to 70%.

 

[u2search]

I think the World Music chart is more accurate. I'll try to find out where their data comes from, and which countries they cover.

'ROW' is bigger than you might think. It includes Canada, Australia, Mexico and all of South America (where U2 sales are huge), Japan, South-East Asia (ditto), and chunks of Eastern Europe not included in IPFI numbers. Croatia, to name just one.

In some of these countries No Line might have sold 50.000-100.000 copies each, so I don't see why ROW couldn't be 1,5 million or more. Many developing economies have been relatively booming since the '80's so their chunk of the total market has gone up since then.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

I think the World Music chart is more accurate. I'll try to find out where their data comes from, and which countries they cover.

Based on what is known about actual shipments, that does not seem to be the case at all. Global shipment figures released in 2008 were right in line with sales figures on mediatraffic's year end chart for 2008. In addition, when more precise data is not available, its better to be conservative than to overestimate.

'ROW' is bigger than you might think. It includes Canada, Australia, Mexico and all of South America (where U2 sales are huge), Japan, South-East Asia (ditto), and chunks of Eastern Europe not included in IPFI numbers. Croatia, to name just one.

Where records are sold is no secret and based on current statistics released by record companies in this decade, nearly 70% of global sales come from Europe and the United States. This has nothing to do with what IFPI covers or does not cover.

In some of these countries No Line might have sold 50.000-100.000 copies each, so I don't see why ROW couldn't be 1,5 million or more. Many developing economies have been relatively booming since the '80's so their chunk of the total market has gone up since then.

Again, the market share totals are based on this decade, not the 1980s.

 

[u2search]

Mediatraffic doesn't cover ca. 7,5% of sales. I don't know where that information is coming from, but it is stated on this site over and over again. Add 7,5% to your reported 3,1 million and they suddenly aren't very far apart.

I find higher but precise numbers more silod than 'points' + 7,5%. As if in those other countries every single album sells exactly 7,5% more then reported, which is nonsense. Especially since No Line has not been doing very well in both the United States and in the UK. If the ROW is more in line with the other IFPI countries, then it makes sense that a larger percentage is coming from the non reported countries in Europe+ROW.

Why is IFPI important here? Because that is where your 1 million certification in Europe is coming from.... That numer is too low:
a) because that was some time ago and sales have been solid in Europe since then and b) some European countries are not included in that number.

If I can work out a more precise split between countries I will post it in the relevant weekly sales thread. This may take a couple of week, *if* I can do that.

 

[Irishteen]

I think the World Music chart is more accurate. I'll try to find out where their data comes from, and which countries they cover.

The majority of their data like mediatraffic's is estimated. The US, Canada, UK, and several other markets release exact sales information while for other markets you have to estimate the sales, so mediatraffic seems to take a more conservative approach and the World Chart seems to give higher estimations for the other areas

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Mediatraffic doesn't cover ca. 7,5% of sales. I don't know where that information is coming from, but it is stated on this site over and over again. Add 7,5% to your reported 3,1 million and they suddenly aren't very far apart.

Thats not true, Mediatraffic does use a sales estimate for Canada based on chart position.

Chart Methodologies
Album-Chart
THE TOP-SELLING ALBUMS ACCORDING TO GLOBAL SALES DATA AND NATIONAL ALBUM-CHARTS
OFFICIAL NATIONAL CHARTS FROM USA, JAPAN, UNITED KINGDOM, GERMANY, AND FRANCE WITH REAL SALES DATA
OFFICIAL NATIONAL CHARTS FROM CANADA, AUSTRALIA, ITALY, SPAIN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, NETHERLANDS, SWITZERLAND, BELGIUM, SOUTH AFRICA, SWEDEN, AUSTRIA, NORWAY, DENMARK, FINLAND, IRELAND, ARGENTINA, CHILE, COLOMBIA, VENEZUELA, NEW ZEALAND, MALAYSIA, POLAND, PORTUGAL, HUNGARY, CZECH REPUBLIC, SLOVAKIA, GREECE, AND SOUTH KOREA ARE WEIGHTED TO THE SIZE OF ITS MARKETS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST IFPI-STATISTICS
(EXCEPTION: ALBUMS WITH HUGH SALES IN THESE COUNTRIES ARE WEIGHTED HIGHER)
ALBUMS WHICH PLACED IN MOST OR ALL OF OUR MONITORED COUNTRIES, GET ADDITIONAL POINTS FOR COUNTRIES WHICH HAVE NO OFFICIAL CHARTS LIKE RUSSIA, CHINA, INDIA, TURKEY ETC.

I find higher but precise numbers more silod than 'points' + 7,5%. As if in those other countries every single album sells exactly 7,5% more then reported, which is nonsense. Especially since No Line has not been doing very well in both the United States and in the UK. If the ROW is more in line with the other IFPI countries, then it makes sense that a larger percentage is coming from the non reported countries in Europe+ROW.

They estimate sales just like mediatraffic does. When estimating sales, its better to be conservative than to over inflate figures.

Why is IFPI important here?

Because totally unlike mediatraffic or this "World Music Chart", IFPI certifications are not estimates, but real hard figures.

Because that is where your 1 million certification in Europe is coming from.... That numer is too low:
a) because that was some time ago and sales have been solid in Europe since then and b) some European countries are not included in that number.

Its NOT a sales figure, its a shipment figure. Shipment figures are normally higher than sales figures initially. How close the album is to shipping 2 million copies in Europe is currently unknown.

Its unlikely that the European countries not represented would have any significant impact on the overall figures.

If I can work out a more precise split between countries I will post it in the relevant weekly sales thread. This may take a couple of week, *if* I can do that.

The RIAA and IFPI provide hard certified shipment figures, NOT estimates. Soundscan provides hard sales figures for the United States. These things have to be considered in any overall estimate of global sales. When estimating a figure that is unknown, it is better to be conservative than to risk over inflating sales.

 

[fedeu2]

Well, with mediatraffic, sales are at 3.1 million with 2 million from the United States and Europe. This right in line with the past sales of many U2 albums with the USA and Europe representing 65% to 70% of all of U2 sales and it also fits the market share that the USA and Europe have for all music sales at 65% to 70%.

Maoil, regardless of which is the most accurate chart, don´t you think Mediatraffic estimates for NLOTH over the last couple of weeks are way too low?

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Maoil, regardless of which is the most accurate chart, don´t you think Mediatraffic estimates for NLOTH over the last couple of weeks are way too low?

I think its low, but its also probably not as high as some speculate either.

 

[u2search]

You are talking total BS Maoilbheannacht.
Please try to think a little bit out of your own box and try to understand what I (and other people) are saying, before you leap on anything.


I write ca. for circa (about) and you jump to Canada, I say something about KOL being twice in the iTunes chart and you start talking about singles sales & Christmas boosts. That makes no sense at all. You don't even check facts.

Eligibility for IFPI Platinum Europe Awards:
4. Sales refer to actual retail sales and not shipments to trade.

No Line is currently at #1 in Croatia and they have been charting there very well since the album came out. Croatia may not be a very huge market in general, but I would be very surprised if they haven't sold over 50.000 units there. That is a significant number. Same goes for other countries not represented by either USA or IFPI. Japan about 100.000 units, some huge numbers in South America (can't find the exact data right now).

I see no point in discussing this any further. Stick to MediaTraffic if you want, I think both charts are on the low side because they simply don't cover all countries.

 

[doctorwho]

All we can say is that several times I've seen the 5M shipment indication worldwide. Based on all sources, it appears NLOTH has sold about 3.1-3.5M copies worldwide. At present, I would say few places have had to order more copies, so that 5M in shipments still stands.

Perhaps when the tour is all over and the album's singles have run their course, NLOTH may see total sales of 6-7M worldwide. If it actually reaches those heights, then this is glorious. Even the Irish press stated that this album hasn't sold as well, comparatively. That's true - but no other album has sold as well either. We must exclude Michael Jackson from this as his death clearly prompted sales. But for all new releases, no successful artist is selling anywhere near as much as they had in the past. An artist like KOL is probably loving things now as their album has sold more than previous efforts. It's just a shame it's 2009. Had KOL come out in 2000 or so, their album might have sold far more copies.

So regardless of the format, it's clear NLOTH is one of, if not the, top selling albums worldwide this year. And that alone should be enough.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

You are talking total BS Maoilbheannacht.
Please try to think a little bit out of your own box and try to understand what I (and other people) are saying, before you leap on anything.


I write ca. for circa (about) and you jump to Canada, I say something about KOL being twice in the iTunes chart and you start talking about singles sales & Christmas boosts. That makes no sense at all. You don't even check facts.

I actually do check facts and its not mine or anyone's fault if we make a mistake in regards to your writing. Ever here of Canadian Recording Industry Association (CRIA) ? That is why I thought the ca stood for Canada. If want other people to clearly understand what your saying, type the whole word out. ca. could stand for a lot of things.

Eligibility for IFPI Platinum Europe Awards:
4. Sales refer to actual retail sales and not shipments to trade.

Thanks for the info on that. That does suggest that overall sales throughout Europe are higher. I recall back in the 1990s when IFPI first started that the figures were based on shipments. Either I was mistaken or their criteria for certification has changed since that time.