fitz
Acrobat
By the way: In Germany down from #11 to # 13
Week 7
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casper75
Babyface
thx Vox02
jick
Refugee
Without any Grammy push, and with the tour on hold, I don't think we will be getting anymore 100,000 sales weeks (I'm talking US only) this year until perhaps Christmas if U2 are lucky.
So they should settle down and average 10,000 to 20,000 per week for the rest of the year multiplied by 50 weeks, so we are looking at sales of 500,000 to 1 million copies this year. That should put U2 at over 3 million sold in the US at the end of the year. Then depending on the Grammy push next year and the popularity of the tour or the broadcast of HBO concerts or DVD releases, we could finally reach 4 million by the middle of next year.
At any rate, it is clear that HTDAAB has already settled down and has actually gone below expectations for post-Christmas season sales. It will be a photo finish on whether it can reach or surpass ATYCLB's sales when all is said and done. But I am talking purely about sales and not quality. From a quality standpoint, I think both albums belong to the upper echelon of U2's recorded work but that is just my two cents and your mileage may vary.
Cheers,
J
So they should settle down and average 10,000 to 20,000 per week for the rest of the year multiplied by 50 weeks, so we are looking at sales of 500,000 to 1 million copies this year. That should put U2 at over 3 million sold in the US at the end of the year. Then depending on the Grammy push next year and the popularity of the tour or the broadcast of HBO concerts or DVD releases, we could finally reach 4 million by the middle of next year.
At any rate, it is clear that HTDAAB has already settled down and has actually gone below expectations for post-Christmas season sales. It will be a photo finish on whether it can reach or surpass ATYCLB's sales when all is said and done. But I am talking purely about sales and not quality. From a quality standpoint, I think both albums belong to the upper echelon of U2's recorded work but that is just my two cents and your mileage may vary.
Cheers,
J
Dima
Acrobat
jick said:
well look it this way: this album probaly has passed the 6 million mark the last week (we'll eventually know this on friday from mediatraffic.de) so in just 9 week (if we count the 1st week with japan-only slales).
Usher's album (the sales champion for last year) has sold 12.1 million copies in 42 weeks...so to sell another 6 million copies and tie Usher performance HTDAAB should sell 180k copies per week.
BTW 180k copies per week in the next 33 weeks is actually impossible as U2 are no longer the biggest act of the wolrd in terms of sales...but i don't see much troubles in selling 100k+ copies on a weekly basis if this album doesn't fall below the top 30 in UK or US in the next 30 weeks and this could mean about 9-10 million copies by the end of 2005: almost the same amount of copies ATYCLB sold in 2 years.
Also consider this: it's true that in the Us it won't get much support from ther Grammy...but luckily the album is holding stong on the charts (even if weekly sales are similar to ATYCLB: but it's the overall market that appear weaker than 4 years ago) and the fact that it's constantly in the top 20 gives it a continuos exposure...a countinuos exposure that ATYCLB couldn't benefit of from its 4th week on the chart (#22...and things possibly were even worse in the UK) so it needed every now and then a little push...probably HTDAAB doesn't need the same kind of support ATYCLB needed
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jick said:
This is DOCTOR WHO'S week 89 chart and sales summary for ATYCLB. All sales for each week rounded to the nearest thousand are included.
Chart Summary for United States
The first 89 weeks for ATYCLB on the U.S. Billboard charts are:
3-5-12-22-23-24-20(1xP)-18-22-16
19-19(2xP)-25-33-37-35-11(3xGrammy)-15-25-31
38-40-42-45-45-48-50-48-50-58
60-53-50-66-74-82-81-89-88-99
105-106-108-104-78-66-53-50-57-55
54-58(3xP)-62-67-80-77-78-76-69-71
74-58-39-56-61-66-25(SBowl)-26-28-10(4xGrammy)
17-25-37-47-48-55-65-83-103-107
119-131-118-130-117-135-153-142-161
"POP" was out of the Top 100 after 19 weeks and "Zooropa" was out of the Top 100 after 31 weeks. ATYCLB fell out of the Top 100 after 40 weeks, however, it had returned for an additional 34 weeks.
ATYCLB spent 74 out of 89 total weeks in the U.S. Top 100; 30 weeks in the U.S. Top 40; and 3 weeks in the U.S. Top 10.
Approximate weekly sales for the first 89 weeks of ATYCLB are (rounded to nearest thousand):
428,000 + 176,000 + 119,000 + 125,000 + 100,000 + 113,000 + 154,000 + 259,000 + 108,000 + 66,000 + 59,000 + 57,000+ 47,000 + 44,000 + 41,000 + 49,000 + 85,000 + 74,000 + 54,000 + 48,000 + 43,000 + 39,000 + 37,000 + 39,000 + 30,000 + 29,000 + 26,000 + 29,000 + 25,000 + 24,000 + 27,000 + 30,000 + 31,000 + 24,000 + 22,000 + 18,000 + 19,000 + 17,000 + 17,000 + 15,000 + 14,000 + 14,000 + 13,000 + 13,000 + 16,000 + 19,000 + 21,000 + 23,000 + 22,000 + 22,000 + 24,000 + 25,000 + 24,000 + 23,000 + 21,000 + 28,000 + 28,000 + 30,000 + 46,000 + 72,000 + 42,000 + 28,000 + 26,000 + 19,000 + 20,000 + 19,000 + 46,000 + 53,000 + 36,000 + 81,000 + 56,000 + 40,000 + 32,000 + 29,000 + 22,000 + 18,000 + 14,000 + 13,000 + 11,000 + 12,000 + 9,000 + 9,000 + 9,000 + 8,000 + 11,000 + 9,000 + 8,000 + 8,000 + 7,000
Exact U.S. SoundScan sales are: 3,928,668 copies (note that the sum of the weekly estimates is off from the exact total due to rounding). The album is a little over 70,000 copies from the 4x Platinum mark in the U.S.
Here is what "BOMB" has already done in just 7 weeks in the USA.
Top 200: 1-2-2-5-3-14-12
Sales: 3,206(street violations) + 839,724 + 288,446 + 280,332 + 299,645 + 350,013 + 94,815 + 59,233
Exact US Soundscan sales after 7 weeks are: 2,215,345
zoo tv mcg
The Fly
Jick,
10-20k copies per week is very, very pessimistic for bomb as a 2005 average. It will be more likely 30-40K. In 2001 ATYCLB has 2 tours and numerous singles and it only went under 20K for 10 weeks. The grammy uplift in 2001 added maybe 70k to sales and of course BOMB is unlikely to have this sales windfall. But, there is nothing to suggest that Bomb will be any differentin average weekly sales - it too will have 2 tours and 4 singles to support sales so 30k is more likely... At 30k per week, this would add 1.5m sales and the album is way ahead based on Jan sales. I am hoping for 40k average per week, but success of the singles will be the key - at 40K per week, this would add another 2m in sales in 05 and Bomb will be level pegging with ATYCLB
Week 8 is a big chart as we will see if the album has stopped it's sliding sales and stabilised at 50 to 60k per week. We will also see what effect ABOY has done to sales. However, if the album slides down to 30k this week, then your estimate might have a chance of being reality in 05
10-20k copies per week is very, very pessimistic for bomb as a 2005 average. It will be more likely 30-40K. In 2001 ATYCLB has 2 tours and numerous singles and it only went under 20K for 10 weeks. The grammy uplift in 2001 added maybe 70k to sales and of course BOMB is unlikely to have this sales windfall. But, there is nothing to suggest that Bomb will be any differentin average weekly sales - it too will have 2 tours and 4 singles to support sales so 30k is more likely... At 30k per week, this would add 1.5m sales and the album is way ahead based on Jan sales. I am hoping for 40k average per week, but success of the singles will be the key - at 40K per week, this would add another 2m in sales in 05 and Bomb will be level pegging with ATYCLB
Week 8 is a big chart as we will see if the album has stopped it's sliding sales and stabilised at 50 to 60k per week. We will also see what effect ABOY has done to sales. However, if the album slides down to 30k this week, then your estimate might have a chance of being reality in 05
Important news this week on Billboard:
BILLBOARD BUBBLING UNDER HOT 100
Issue Date: 22/01/2005
LW TW Artist/Title
4 1 JET LOOK WHAT YOU'VE DONE
6 2 BILLY DEAN LET THEM BE LITTLE
7 3 LEE ANN WOMACK I MAY HATE MYSELF IN THE MORNI
-- 4 MARIAH CAREY IT'S LIKE THAT
10 5 EMINEM LIKE TOY SOLDIERS
21 6 3 DOORS DOWN LET ME GO
9 7 PAPA ROACH SCARS
15 8 ANDY GRIGGS IF HEAVEN
12 9 OBIE BERMUDEZ TODO EL ANO
11 10 THREE DAYS GRACE HOME
8 11 HOOBASTANK DISAPPEAR
-- 12 MONTGOMERY GENTRY GONE
25 13 BROOKS & DUNN IT'S GETTING BETTER ALL THE TI
-- 14 U2 ALL BECAUSE OF YOU
-- 15 NELLY N DEY SAY
-- 16 CRAIG MORGAN THAT'S WHAT I LOVE ABOUT SUNDA
-- 17 FRANKIE J OBSESSION (NO ES AMOR)
-- 18 ASHLEE SIMPSON LA LA
-- 19 PAT GREEN DON'T BREAK MY HEART AGAIN
-- 20 GOOD CHARLOTTE I JUST WANNA LIVE
14 21 NB RIDAZ PRETTY GIRL
24 22 THE KILLERS MR. BRIGHTSIDE
-- 23 TWISTA FEATURING FA HOPE
-- 24 RICARDO ARJONA PORQUE ES TAN CRUEL EL AMOR
18 25 JUANES NADA VALGO SIN TU AMOR
The whole report here:
http://forum.interference.com/t109513.html
BILLBOARD BUBBLING UNDER HOT 100
Issue Date: 22/01/2005
LW TW Artist/Title
4 1 JET LOOK WHAT YOU'VE DONE
6 2 BILLY DEAN LET THEM BE LITTLE
7 3 LEE ANN WOMACK I MAY HATE MYSELF IN THE MORNI
-- 4 MARIAH CAREY IT'S LIKE THAT
10 5 EMINEM LIKE TOY SOLDIERS
21 6 3 DOORS DOWN LET ME GO
9 7 PAPA ROACH SCARS
15 8 ANDY GRIGGS IF HEAVEN
12 9 OBIE BERMUDEZ TODO EL ANO
11 10 THREE DAYS GRACE HOME
8 11 HOOBASTANK DISAPPEAR
-- 12 MONTGOMERY GENTRY GONE
25 13 BROOKS & DUNN IT'S GETTING BETTER ALL THE TI
-- 14 U2 ALL BECAUSE OF YOU
-- 15 NELLY N DEY SAY
-- 16 CRAIG MORGAN THAT'S WHAT I LOVE ABOUT SUNDA
-- 17 FRANKIE J OBSESSION (NO ES AMOR)
-- 18 ASHLEE SIMPSON LA LA
-- 19 PAT GREEN DON'T BREAK MY HEART AGAIN
-- 20 GOOD CHARLOTTE I JUST WANNA LIVE
14 21 NB RIDAZ PRETTY GIRL
24 22 THE KILLERS MR. BRIGHTSIDE
-- 23 TWISTA FEATURING FA HOPE
-- 24 RICARDO ARJONA PORQUE ES TAN CRUEL EL AMOR
18 25 JUANES NADA VALGO SIN TU AMOR
The whole report here:
http://forum.interference.com/t109513.html
Dima
Acrobat
STING2 said:
Billboard surely referred to shipped copies...Mediatraffic refers to sold copies.
Dima
Acrobat
Zoovation said:
it depends on WHAT week you consider...the 7th week for ATCLB fell before Christmas when the market is much stronger (and when HTDAAB was selling 280k+ per week)
Popmartijn
Blue Crack Supplier
Yes, after the Christmas break that is the best way to compare sales (as far as they can be compared). The album is now almost 2 months old, so the initial rush by the hardcore fans to get the album is gone. Now, it is interesting to see how many other people are picking up the record, based on promotion, tours, news, etc.
C ya!
Marty
C ya!
Marty
