Week 6

[CosmoKramer]

How much had HTDAAB sold by week 6/7? In an album market down by 50%, NLOTH would of been selling 3.6 million by now in 2004, and if it was released in November probably closer to 5 million worldwide. And those estimates are probably low, seeing as I added 50% NLOTH sales as opposed to doubling them seeing as the market is now half what it was.

By week 7, BOMB sold 2.2 million in the US
By week 8, Bomb sold 2.25 million in the US

WW week 7-5.7 million
WW week 8- 5.9 million

 

[Irishteen]

Bomb - 5.7
NLOTH - 2.4

If the market is down by 50%

then
Bomb - 2.85
NLOTH - 2.4

And that's not even taking into account the Christmas boost. NLOTH may not be as popular as Bomb but it is nowhere near a sales failure

 

[allbecauseofu2]

The old rule was, if your new album sold at least platinum, (this rule in regards to older artists) you could play alot of new songs at your concerts without having people head for the bathroom cause they only wanna hear classics. It means you were not a nostalgia act. It means you were still relevant to some degree. I agree with the rule. However, i'm not sure how you measure in legal downloads. Like if your album sells 750,000 units and stalls out , but also had a large number of downloads on itunes. I'm not sure how to do math. But i always hope u2 can stave off the fate that happens to most artists after a while. 815,000 units so far + whatever they have in legal downloads at this point in the us so far. i think they they will pass the rule. They have not even started the tour yet. I have been to shows by old artists and when they play a new song from a album that has sold about ,oh 100,000 copys or less no body cares about new songs. Don;t give a shit. want to hear the old stuff. back in the day etc. Thats how i measure commercial success.

 

[Popmartijn]

These 815K units include legal downloads of the album from iTunes and Amazon.com (and other sites).

 

[Irishteen]

Let's put this in perspective for illegal downloads, if you look at piratebay at present 500 people about are downloading the album, judging by the fact that the torrents could be downloaded in about five-ten minutes the turnover of that 500 is probably incredibly high.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

The old rule was, if your new album sold at least platinum, (this rule in regards to older artists) you could play alot of new songs at your concerts without having people head for the bathroom cause they only wanna hear classics. It means you were not a nostalgia act. It means you were still relevant to some degree. I agree with the rule. However, i'm not sure how you measure in legal downloads. Like if your album sells 750,000 units and stalls out , but also had a large number of downloads on itunes. I'm not sure how to do math. But i always hope u2 can stave off the fate that happens to most artists after a while. 815,000 units so far + whatever they have in legal downloads at this point in the us so far. i think they they will pass the rule. They have not even started the tour yet. I have been to shows by old artists and when they play a new song from a album that has sold about ,oh 100,000 copys or less no body cares about new songs. Don;t give a shit. want to hear the old stuff. back in the day etc. Thats how i measure commercial success.

Well, thats an outdated rule, because today, the vast majority of albums don't go platinum. In fact, only 25 albums sold 1 million copies or more in the USA in 2008. I would say you would only have to go GOLD for this rule these days and probably less than that.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Here are the top 100 selling albums of 2008 in the United States. Only the first 25 actually sold over a 1 million copies.


1 UNCM LIL WAYNE THA CARTER III 2,874,420 2nd quarter 2008 release
2 CAP COLDPLAY VIVA LA VIDA 2,143,928 2nd quarter 2008 release
3 BGMA SWIFT*TAYLOR FEARLESS 2,112,179 4th quarter 2008 release
4 ATLG KID ROCK ROCK N ROLL JESUS 2,017,905 4th quarter 2007 release
5 COL AC/DC BLACK ICE 1,915,172 4th quarter 2008 release
6 BGMA SWIFT*TAYLOR TAYLOR SWIFT 1,597,316 4th quarter 2006 release
7 WAR METALLICA DEATH MAGNETIC 1,565,078 3rd quarter 2008 release
8 ATLG T.I. PAPER TRAIL 1,522,103 3rd quarter 2008 release
9 UNJJ JOHNSON*JACK SLEEP THROUGH THE STATIC 1,492,466 1st quarter 2008 release
10 COL BEYONCE I AM...SASHA FIERCE 1,458,853 4th quarter 2008 release
11 HOL JONAS BROTHERS LITTLE BIT LONGER 1,410,091 3rd quarter 2008 release
12 DECC MAMMA MIA SOUNDTRACK 1,405,698 3rd quarter 2008 release
13 J LEWIS*LEONA SPIRIT 1,394,552 4th quarter 2007 release
14 HOL CYRUS*MILEY BREAKOUT 1,316,088 3rd quarter 2008 release
15 MERN SUGARLAND LOVE ON THE INSIDE 1,301,039 3rd quarter 2008 release
16 DEF RIHANNA GOOD GIRL GONE BAD 1,279,976 2nd quarter 2007 release
17 DBV HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL 3: SENIOR SOUNDTRACK 1,234,275 4th quarter 2008 release
18 ISL CAREY*MARIAH E=MC2 1,221,312 2nd quarter 2008 release
19 DBV CAMP ROCK SOUNDTRACK 1,216,217 2nd quarter 2008 release
20 ROAD NICKELBACK DARK HORSE 1,165,265 4th quarter 2008 release
21 ATLG TWILIGHT SOUNDTRACK 1,127,539 4th quarter 2008 release
22 J KEYS*ALICIA AS I AM 1,122,942 4th quarter 2008 release
23 LAF USHER HERE I STAND 1,119,533 2nd quarter 2008 release
24 JIVE SPEARS*BRITNEY CIRCUS 1,104,343 4th quarter 2008 release
25 DEF WEST*KANYE 808S & HEARTBREAK 1,023,927 4th quarter 2008 release
26 CAP NOW THAT'S WHAT I CALL MUSIC VOL. 28-NOW THAT'S WHAT I CALL 983,274
27 HOL JONAS BROTHERS JONAS BROTHERS 926,279
28 WAR GROBAN*JOSH NOEL 914,722
29 ATLG JUNO SOUNDTRACK 905,812
30 UME VARIOUS NOW 29 897,194
31 ARI UNDERWOOD*CARRIE CARNIVAL RIDE 890,020
32 WAR DISTURBED INDESTRUCTIBLE 873,402
33 SBSM NOW THAT'S WHAT I CALL MUSIC VOL. 27-NOW THAT'S WHAT I CALL 868,409
34 JIVE BROWN*CHRIS EXCLUSIVE 839,025
35 RAZ ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS SOUNDTRACK 815,849
36 RCA COOK*DAVID DAVID COOK 811,667
37 ATLG MRAZ*JASON WE SING WE DANCE WE STEAL THIN 800,554
38 DEF NE-YO YEAR OF THE GENTLEMAN 775,505
39 UNIV CAILLAT*COLBIE COCO 758,026
40 GEFN BLIGE*MARY J. GROWING PAINS 757,871
41 MCAN STRAIT*GEORGE TROUBADOUR 750,241
42 CAP PERRY*KATY ONE OF THE BOYS 749,292
43 RCA DAUGHTRY DAUGHTRY 727,636
44 DBV HANNAH MONTANA 2: MEET MILEY C SOUNDTRACK 713,562
45 EPIC JACKSON*MICHAEL THRILLER 712,443
46 DEF ROSS*RICK TRILLA 709,512
47 DEF YOUNG JEEZY RECESSION 706,724
48 UNIV WINEHOUSE*AMY BACK TO BLACK 701,866
49 WAR MADONNA HARD CANDY 698,530
50 EPIC BAREILLES*SARA LITTLE VOICE 689,427
51 PEAR BROOKS*GARTH ULTIMATE HITS 681,590
52 LAF P!NK FUNHOUSE 680,887
53 UNIV 3 DOORS DOWN 3 DOORS DOWN 671,236
54 MER DUFFY ROCKFERRY 666,432
55 ATO RADIOHEAD IN RAINBOWS 663,107
56 MERN SUGARLAND ENJOY THE RIDE 663,035
57 ARNV JACKSON*ALAN GOOD TIME 656,814
58 ROAD SLIPKNOT ALL HOPE IS GONE 641,205
59 GEFN COLE*KEYSHIA JUST LIKE YOU 638,355
60 GEFN GAME LAX 633,740
61 INO VARIOUS I CAN ONLY IMAGINE 614,944
62 WAR LINKIN PARK MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT 591,486
63 WAR ENYA WINTER CAME 579,726
64 JIVE SPARKS*JORDIN JORDIN SPARKS 576,538
65 ERC2 EAGLES LONG ROAD OUT OF EDEN 569,025
66 BADB DANITY KANE WELCOME TO THE DOLLHOUSE 568,857
67 RMEZ JOURNEY REVELATION 568,669
68 JIVE ARCHULETA*DAVID DAVID ARCHULETA 566,053
69 BNA CHESNEY*KENNY LUCKY OLD SUN 564,931
70 SWDG KEITH*TOBY TOBY KEITH 35 BIGGEST HITS 556,743
71 ATLG PLIES DEFINITION OF REAL 552,874
72 INT ONEREPUBLIC DREAMING OUT LOUD 551,110
73 ROAD NICKELBACK ALL THE RIGHT REASONS 547,175
74 ARI HUDSON*JENNIFER JENNIFER HUDSON 546,795
75 LYST RASCAL FLATTS STILL FEELS GOOD 545,451
76 COL IL DIVO PROMISE 537,822
77 WAR BUBLE*MICHAEL CALL ME IRRESPONSIBLE 520,603
78 ROUN PLANT/KRAUSS RAISING SAND 512,878
79 COL JOURNEY GREATEST HITS 507,465
80 EPIC BEDINGFIELD*NATASHA POCKETFUL OF SUNSHINE 501,381
81 FUER PARAMORE RIOT! 493,677
82 OCAM MAROON 5 IT WON'T BE SOON BEFORE LONG 489,903
83 BNA CHESNEY*KENNY JUST WHO I AM: POETS & PIRATES 489,539
84 GEFN GUNS 'N ROSES CHINESE DEMOCRACY 481,274
85 ASMG UNDERWOOD*CARRIE SOME HEARTS 477,678
86 WAR HILL*FAITH JOY TO THE WORLD 474,232
87 ISL MARLEY*BOB & THE WAILERS LEGEND 472,600
88 AAM FERGIE DUTCHESS 472,233
89 DBV MONTANA*HANNAH/CYRUS*MILEY BEST OF BOTH WORLDS CONCERT 471,441
90 GEFN GUNS N'ROSES GREATEST HITS 462,746
91 ATLG DEATH CAB FOR CUTIE NARROW STAIRS 462,693
92 CAP VARIOUS NOW 26 461,905
93 LYST RASCAL FLATTS VOL. 1-GREATEST HITS 455,388
94 COL LEGEND*JOHN EVOLVER 450,642
95 GEFN COLE*KEYSHIA DIFFERENT ME 448,591
96 WAR SINATRA*FRANK NOTHING BUT THE BEST 448,286
97 DEF LUDACRIS THEATER OF THE MIND 439,156
98 ISL KILLERS DAY & AGE 431,703
99 DEF NAS NAS 428,614
100 ISL JACKSON*JANET DISCIPLINE 427,213

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

, despite most mega-selling albums aren't released until the fourth quarter of the year.

Looking at the top 20 selling albums of 2008, only 5 of the albums were released in the fourth quarter of 2008. Only 3 were in the top 10.

 

[u2search]

Very interesting post. I'm glad at least you agree on the capacity for each venue.

Will see who's predictions were correct for those "weaker markets" this fall.


Dopper attendance predictions for the U2 360 in North America:

Phoenix 35,000
Las Vegas 33,000
Tampa 28,000
Raleigh 25,000
Atlanta 36,000
Dallas 34,000
Norman 22,000
Houston 32,000
Charlottesville 29,000
D.C. 55,000



Moggio predictions for U2 360 in North America:

City/Venue/Capacity/Tickets Sold/Gross/Average Ticket Price

September

12, 13 Chicago - Soldier Field (2 shows...120,000/Sold Out/$11.5 million /$96)
16, 17 Toronto - Rogers Centre (2 shows...140,000/Sold Out/$13 million/$93)
20, 21 Foxboro, MA (Boston) - Gillette Stadium (2 shows...140,000/Sold Out/$11.5 million /$82)
24, 25, 27 E. Rutherford, NJ (NYC metro area) - Giants Stadium (3 shows...240,000/Sold Out/$19.5 million /$81)
29 Washington, DC - FedEx Field (92,000/Sold Out/$6.5 million/$71)

October

1 Charlottesville, VA - Scott Stadium (62,000/31,000/$2 million/$65)
3 Raleigh - Carter Finley Stadium (57,000/31,000/$2 million/$65)
6 Atlanta - Georgia Dome (67,000/Sold Out/$4.5 million/$67)
9 Tampa - Raymond James Stadium (65,000/54,000/$3.5 million/$65)
12 Dallas - Cowboys Stadium (80,000/28,000/$1.8 million/$65)
14 Houston - Reliant Stadium (70,000/31,000/$2 million/$65)
19 Norman, OK (Oklahoma City area) - University Memorial Stadium (82,000/31,000/$2 million/$65)
20 Glendale, AZ (Phoenix) - University Of Phoenix Stadium (63,000/Sold Out/$4.5 million/$71.50)
23 Las Vegas - Sam Boyd Stadium (37,000/Sold Out/$4.5 million/$122)
25 Pasadena, CA (LA metro area) - Rose Bowl (95,000/Sold Out/11.5 million/$121)
28 Vancouver - BC Place Stadium (60,000/Sold Out/$5.5 million/$92)

This leg should gross over $105 million.



Maoilbheannacht predictions for U2 360 tour in North America:

City/Venue/Capacity/Tickets Sold/Gross/Average Ticket Price

September

12, 13 Chicago - Soldier Field (2 shows...120,000/Sold Out/$12 million /$100)
16, 17 Toronto - Rogers Centre (2 shows...140,000/Sold Out/$14 million/$100)
20, 21 Foxboro, MA (Boston) - Gillette Stadium (2 shows...140,000/Sold Out/$14 million /$100)
24, 25 E. Rutherford, NJ (NYC metro area) - Giants Stadium (2 shows...160,000/Sold Out/$16.1 million /$100.68)
29 Washington, DC - FedEx Field (92,000/Sold Out/$9.2 million/$99.53)

October

1 Charlottesville, VA - Scott Stadium (62,000/55,000/$5.4 million/$97.70)
3 Raleigh - Carter Finley Stadium (57,000/45,000/$3.6 million/$80)
6 Atlanta - Georgia Dome (67,000/Sold Out/$6.3 million/$95)
9 Tampa - Raymond James Stadium (65,000/55,000/$5.2 million/$95)
12 Dallas - Cowboys Stadium (80,000/55,000/$5.4 million/$97.70)
14 Houston - Reliant Stadium (70,000/45,000/$4.3 million/$95)
19 Norman, OK (Oklahoma City area) - University Memorial Stadium (82,000/50,000/$4 million/$80)
20 Glendale, AZ (Phoenix) - University Of Phoenix Stadium (63,000/Sold Out/$6 million/$95)
23 Las Vegas - Sam Boyd Stadium (37,000/Sold Out/$4.5 million/$122)
25 Pasadena, CA (LA metro area) - Rose Bowl (95,000/Sold Out/9.5 million/$100)
28 Vancouver - BC Place Stadium (60,000/Sold Out/$6 million/$100)


Total gross $125.5 million from 20 shows.

 

[doctorwho]

Looking at the top 20 selling albums of 2008, only 5 of the albums were released in the fourth quarter of 2008. Only 3 were in the top 10.

Of the list that you presented above your post, 12 of the top 25 were in the 4th quarter and 8 of the top 20. Per your own list, three of the top 5 albums were released in the 4th quarter last year and five of the Top 10.

Also, I'm more than willing to bet that a lot of those 3rd quarter releases were in October (much like U2's ATYCLB), timed just right so to have a week to itself and then enjoy the holiday sales. Counting 3rd and 4th quarter releases, one sees that a whopping 18 out of the Top 25 best selling 2008 albums were released then.

U2's NLOTH was a first quarter release. Not a single album released in the first quarter of 2008 made the Top 25, per your information. If NLOTH goes on to have a few hits and a boost from the tour, such that it finishes in the Top 25, it will have accomplished something that no first quarter album did in 2008.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Of the list that you presented above your post, 12 of the top 25 were in the 4th quarter and 8 of the top 20.

Look carefully, there were only 5 albums in the top 20 that were released in the 4th quarter of 2008

3 BGMA SWIFT*TAYLOR FEARLESS 2,112,179 4th quarter 2008 release
5 COL AC/DC BLACK ICE 1,915,172 4th quarter 2008 release
10 COL BEYONCE I AM...SASHA FIERCE 1,458,853 4th quarter 2008 release
17 DBV HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL 3: SENIOR SOUNDTRACK 1,234,275 4th quarter 2008 release
20 ROAD NICKELBACK DARK HORSE 1,165,265 4th quarter 2008 release



The following three albums were released in the 4th quarter of 2006 AND 2007 NOT 2008. That means their first sales for the top 100 albums of 2008 started to come in from the 1st quarter of 2008.


4 ATLG KID ROCK ROCK N ROLL JESUS 2,017,905 4th quarter 2007 release
13 J LEWIS*LEONA SPIRIT 1,394,552 4th quarter 2007 release
6 BGMA SWIFT*TAYLOR TAYLOR SWIFT 1,597,316 4th quarter 2006 release

Per your own list, three of the top 5 albums were released in the 4th quarter last year and five of the Top 10.

Incorrect.

1 UNCM LIL WAYNE THA CARTER III 2,874,420 2nd quarter 2008 release
2 CAP COLDPLAY VIVA LA VIDA 2,143,928 2nd quarter 2008 release
3 BGMA SWIFT*TAYLOR FEARLESS 2,112,179 4th quarter 2008 release
4 ATLG KID ROCK ROCK N ROLL JESUS 2,017,905 4th quarter 2007 release
5 COL AC/DC BLACK ICE 1,915,172 4th quarter 2008 release
6 BGMA SWIFT*TAYLOR TAYLOR SWIFT 1,597,316 4th quarter 2006 release
7 WAR METALLICA DEATH MAGNETIC 1,565,078 3rd quarter 2008 release
8 ATLG T.I. PAPER TRAIL 1,522,103 3rd quarter 2008 release
9 UNJJ JOHNSON*JACK SLEEP THROUGH THE STATIC 1,492,466 1st quarter 2008 release
10 COL BEYONCE I AM...SASHA FIERCE 1,458,853 4th quarter 2008 release


Only 2 albums in the top 5 were released in the 4th quarter of 2008.

Only 3 albums in the top 10 were released in the 4th quarter of 2008.

Also, I'm more than willing to bet that a lot of those 3rd quarter releases were in October (much like U2's ATYCLB), timed just right so to have a week to itself and then enjoy the holiday sales. Counting 3rd and 4th quarter releases, one sees that a whopping 18 out of the Top 25 best selling 2008 albums were released then.

1st Quarter: January, February, March
2nd Quarter: April, May, June
3rd Quarter: July, August, September
4th Quarter: October, November, December

If an album was released in October, it is a 4th quarter release! Most of the 3rd Quarter albums were released in July and August!

Only 11 albums in the top 20 last year were released in either the third or 4th quarter, last 6 months of the year, in 2008.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Not a single album released in the first quarter of 2008 made the Top 25, per your information.

9 UNJJ JOHNSON*JACK SLEEP THROUGH THE STATIC 1,492,466 1st quarter 2008 release

 

[Moggio]

Of the list that you presented above your post, 12 of the top 25 were in the 4th quarter and 8 of the top 20. Per your own list, three of the top 5 albums were released in the 4th quarter last year and five of the Top 10.

Exactly.

This is just an example of how he "adjusts" the info to suit his own needs to make U2 look more popular than they really are. There are THOUSANDS of examples of this kind of shit...and it's been going on for YEARS. I could easily hand him his ass with every single sentence of mine that he's responded to, like I have for YEARS...but is it really worth it? Because he'll just keep spinning the facts...

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Exactly.

This is just an example of how he "adjusts" the info to suit his own needs to make U2 look more popular than they really are. There are THOUSANDS of examples of this kind of shit...and it's been going on for YEARS. I could easily hand him his ass with every single sentence of mine that he's responded to, like I have for YEARS...but is it really worth it? Because he'll just keep spinning the facts...

Don't worry, Doctorwho just mis-read the info initially, he'll understand once he reads the follow up. Unfortunately, it does not appear that you understand or read it.

By the way, are you still sticking by the following predictions?

October

1 Charlottesville, VA - Scott Stadium (62,000/31,000/$2 million/$65)
3 Raleigh - Carter Finley Stadium (57,000/31,000/$2 million/$65)
12 Dallas - Cowboys Stadium (80,000/28,000/$1.8 million/$65)
14 Houston - Reliant Stadium (70,000/31,000/$2 million/$65)
19 Norman, OK (Oklahoma City area) - University Memorial Stadium (82,000/31,000/$2 million/$65)


For your information, Cowboys Stadium came close to selling out TODAY. So much for claiming that there would only be 28,000 people there this fall. I was off to, 55,000, but not by nearly as much.

U2 have a decent chance to sellout all 5 of these shows, 5 shows you predicted would only have an average of 30,000 people per show. Plus, the Dallas - Cowboys Stadium show will likely set the record for concert attendance in the state of Texas as well as being one of the best attended and highest grossing shows of the tour!

 

[allbecauseofu2]

i thought internet sales had its own charts. Well then i guess i underestimated illegal downloading. And since there isn't charts for illegal downloading, i guess the rule is now just go gold and be relevant. Well, lets see NLOTH go platinum anyhow. But i do have a question. How do they measure/chart when someone just legally downloads only a few songs from a album?

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

But i do have a question. How do they measure/chart when someone just legally downloads only a few songs from a album?

That won't count towards album sales. They would have to download every track from the album for it to count. There are song charts which track song downloads, but its mostly singles that are being promoted that make it into the chart. The totals for album songs that are NOT being promoted as singles are often to small to ever make the chart. A song download is usually just a dollar.

 

[fedeu2]

By the way, are you still sticking by the following predictions?

October

1 Charlottesville, VA - Scott Stadium (62,000/31,000/$2 million/$65)
3 Raleigh - Carter Finley Stadium (57,000/31,000/$2 million/$65)
12 Dallas - Cowboys Stadium (80,000/28,000/$1.8 million/$65)
14 Houston - Reliant Stadium (70,000/31,000/$2 million/$65)
19 Norman, OK (Oklahoma City area) - University Memorial Stadium (82,000/31,000/$2 million/$65)

Come on. These predictions are a joke right moggio? Even my 4 year old daughter would come up with more accurate numbers.

 

[Moggio]

Come on. These predictions are a joke right moggio? Even my 4 year old daughter would come up with more accurate numbers.

Where the hell are your predictions for this tour, smart ass?


1. Charlottesville, VA is a new market that U2 hasn't played before, which means it's much harder to predict what the gross will be. I can now see this show grossing as much as $3 million.

2. I still don't see Raleigh grossing more than $2 million.

3. It now appears that Dallas & Houston have been underbooked since the 90s. If you've seen the extensive tour stats for these markets, you'll see that nothing really gave any indication of that beforehand. I can now see Dallas grossing as much $4 million and Houston grossing as much $3.5 million.

4. When I was extensively researching, I missed the fact that U2 played both the Oklahoma City area AND Tulsa on the War tour (the last time U2 played the state of Oklahoma). Whereas before, I thought they only played Oklahoma City area on the War tour. Therefore, I can see the upcoming Norman, OK show grossing as much as $3 million.

5. The rest of the North American markets' grosses should basically be in line with my predictions.