Week 19

[mikeuk]

Its great that mediatraffic finally updated their figures. My estimate for this week was that the album would be at 7,350,000. But I'm 126,000 copies off as the total number with this weeks sales is 7,224,000. I've been estimating sales being at 100,000 the past few weeks thinking that was a conservative estimate. But it appears that the average per week for the last several weeks has been about 75,000. If the current rate of sales is maintained, BOMB will pass the 8 million mark at mediatraffic in about 10 weeks.

The problem with the all-time chart is that mediatraffic don't state what period upto the sales relates to i.e. week ?? 2005. We are presuming the overall figure includes sales for the latest week - but can we be sure ?

Mike

 

[fitz]

Green Day's new album could potentially pass "Atomic Bomb" in sales worldwide after 3 more weeks if both albums maintain the sales levels from this week.

Yes, but on the other side U2 could pass Elvis No.1 Hits in the same time, so HTDAAB will stay on #17 for a few more weeks.

 

[fitz]

Imagine how high 'sometimes' would have made it if it had been doin this well in the US, the same time as it peaked in Europe.

Yes that's right. I hope that the next single (COBL) will release worldwide on the same date (in Europe and Japan mid of June).

 

[STING2]

The problem with the all-time chart is that mediatraffic don't state what period upto the sales relates to i.e. week ?? 2005. We are presuming the overall figure includes sales for the latest week - but can we be sure ?

Mike

I don't know, but I don't see why they would not include the latest weeks sales. The all time chart was updated on Friday, the same day that the current album chart was released as well.

 

[fitz]

I don't know, but I don't see why they would not include the latest weeks sales. The all time chart was updated on Friday, the same day that the current album chart was released as well.

Yes, it's with the actual week!

 

[edge3]

Hello to all you 'bomb watchers'. I should probably first say that I'm new here but I've still been closely monitoring and collecting 'the bombs' sales figures from the start. Anyway fascinating posts from everyone. Mikeuk... I am certain that the Mediatraffic update figure for the 'bomb' of 7224M does not include this week. Here are my figures for the disputed weeks with as much official evidence as you will need (remember the Mediatraffic figure was 6538M at W.13) :

W.14 : *No.5 - *162K
W.15 : No.7 - 140K est. (No.8 sold 141K + No.12 sold 136K)
W.16 : No.16 - 100K est. (No.10 sold 133K + No.24 Il Divo sold 83K in UK that week)
W.17 : No.15 - 95K est. (No.6 sold 137K + No.25, Kaiser Chiefs, sold 75K in UK that week)
W.18 : No.14 - 90K est. (No.9, Stereophonics, sold 106K in UK + No.29, Tony Christie's 'The Difinitive Collection', sold 65K in UK)
W.19 : No.13 - 95K est. (50% increase in US + small increase in UK + Mediatraffic said U2 increased + Moby went up 1 to No.5 with 7% increase to 144K + Frankie J's 'The One' debuted at No.11 with 130K in US BB chart + Tony Christie at No.20 sold 83K in UK)
W.20 : No.16 - 93K est. (No.17, Larry The Cable Guy's 'The Right To Bare Arms' sold 92K in US - No.7 debut on US BB chart).

*All numbers and sales figures were provided by Mediatraffic except the US & UK figures which I got from the Billboard Website and Musicweek (which I have been buying ever since the Bomb first came out).

Now if you add the estimated sales figures from W.14 - W.19 to 6538M you get 7220M - very close to the official Mediatraffic figure of 7224M. Then add on this weeks figure of 93K to 7224M and I can assure you that the official Mediatraffic figure for the Bomb currently stands at about 7317M.

 

[edge3]

One More Thing....

After closely studying album sales in Musicweek I estimate HTDAAB sold around 10500 in week 18. This was a definite (but small increase) on the previous week despite a 7 place drop to no.34 (Easter increased overall artist album sales by 26.8%). Last week, at No.40, I reckon 'the bomb' sold just under 7K in the UK (John Legend's 'Get Lifted' sold 8018 at No.32). Overall that's about 1004600.

This week, at No.46, I reckon 'the bomb' would have sold maybe 6K but I haven't got Musicweek yet. But the Bomb will definately have passed the 1005000 barrier in the UK by now.

Roll on 4X Plat!! (shame about 'sometimes' dropping out of the top 75 though)

 

[fitz]

Hello to all you 'bomb watchers'. I should probably first say that I'm new here but I've still been closely monitoring and collecting 'the bombs' sales figures from the start. Anyway fascinating posts from everyone. Mikeuk... I am certain that the Mediatraffic update figure for the 'bomb' of 7224M does not include this week. Here are my figures for the disputed weeks with as much official evidence as you will need (remember the Mediatraffic figure was 6538M at W.13) :

W.14 : *No.5 - *162K
W.15 : No.7 - 140K est. (No.8 sold 141K + No.12 sold 136K)
W.16 : No.16 - 100K est. (No.10 sold 133K + No.24 Il Divo sold 83K in UK that week)
W.17 : No.15 - 95K est. (No.6 sold 137K + No.25, Kaiser Chiefs, sold 75K in UK that week)
W.18 : No.14 - 90K est. (No.9, Stereophonics, sold 106K in UK + No.29, Tony Christie's 'The Difinitive Collection', sold 65K in UK)
W.19 : No.13 - 95K est. (50% increase in US + small increase in UK + Mediatraffic said U2 increased + Moby went up 1 to No.5 with 7% increase to 144K + Frankie J's 'The One' debuted at No.11 with 130K in US BB chart + Tony Christie at No.20 sold 83K in UK)
W.20 : No.16 - 93K est. (No.17, Larry The Cable Guy's 'The Right To Bare Arms' sold 92K in US - No.7 debut on US BB chart).

*All numbers and sales figures were provided by Mediatraffic except the US & UK figures which I got from the Billboard Website and Musicweek (which I have been buying ever since the Bomb first came out).

Now if you add the estimated sales figures from W.14 - W.19 to 6538M you get 7220M - very close to the official Mediatraffic figure of 7224M. Then add on this weeks figure of 93K to 7224M and I can assure you that the official Mediatraffic figure for the Bomb currently stands at about 7317M.

Sorry, but I've asked at mediatraffic and they confirmed, that the actual week is included!

 

[STING2]

Sorry, but I've asked at mediatraffic and they confirmed, that the actual week is included!

Could you ask them to give us the individual sales levels from week 14 on up for the BOMB?

 

[STING2]

Hello to all you 'bomb watchers'. I should probably first say that I'm new here but I've still been closely monitoring and collecting 'the bombs' sales figures from the start. Anyway fascinating posts from everyone. Mikeuk... I am certain that the Mediatraffic update figure for the 'bomb' of 7224M does not include this week. Here are my figures for the disputed weeks with as much official evidence as you will need (remember the Mediatraffic figure was 6538M at W.13) :

W.14 : *No.5 - *162K
W.15 : No.7 - 140K est. (No.8 sold 141K + No.12 sold 136K)
W.16 : No.16 - 100K est. (No.10 sold 133K + No.24 Il Divo sold 83K in UK that week)
W.17 : No.15 - 95K est. (No.6 sold 137K + No.25, Kaiser Chiefs, sold 75K in UK that week)
W.18 : No.14 - 90K est. (No.9, Stereophonics, sold 106K in UK + No.29, Tony Christie's 'The Difinitive Collection', sold 65K in UK)
W.19 : No.13 - 95K est. (50% increase in US + small increase in UK + Mediatraffic said U2 increased + Moby went up 1 to No.5 with 7% increase to 144K + Frankie J's 'The One' debuted at No.11 with 130K in US BB chart + Tony Christie at No.20 sold 83K in UK)
W.20 : No.16 - 93K est. (No.17, Larry The Cable Guy's 'The Right To Bare Arms' sold 92K in US - No.7 debut on US BB chart).

*All numbers and sales figures were provided by Mediatraffic except the US & UK figures which I got from the Billboard Website and Musicweek (which I have been buying ever since the Bomb first came out).

Now if you add the estimated sales figures from W.14 - W.19 to 6538M you get 7220M - very close to the official Mediatraffic figure of 7224M. Then add on this weeks figure of 93K to 7224M and I can assure you that the official Mediatraffic figure for the Bomb currently stands at about 7317M.

Good analysis! Welcome to the Forum!

 

[fitz]

Could you ask them to give us the individual sales levels from week 14 on up for the BOMB?

Sorry, but they don't give any figures anymore - only the one on their chart-website

 

[edge3]

Fitz - Someone must be wrong & I very much doubt it's Musicweek or Billboard. Mediatraffic must be misleading you as the figures just don't add up :

MT (Mediatraffic) definately gave enough info. for us to deduce the W.14 & W.15 figures of 162K & 140K.

So in case you think I've been exagerating the figures let's look at the MINIMUM amount that the Bomb could have sold between W.16 & W.20 :

For W.16 and at No.16 on the MT chart the, the minimum amount that the Bomb could have sold was 84K because, Il Divo, in the UK definatley sold 83K in the UK that week & this must have accounted for their No.24 position on the MT chart. Again for W.17 and at No.15 on MT chart the minimum amount that the bomb could have sold was 75K because the Kiaser Chiefs in the UK definately sold 74K in the UK that week and this would have (mainly) accounted for their No.25 position on MT chart. For week 18 and at No.14 on the MT chart the Bomb must have sold a minimum of 66K because Tony Christie's The definitive Collection definatley sold 65K in the UK that week & this was enough to be at No.29 on MT chart. Now for week 19... At first glance I would say that, at No.13 on MT chart, the minimum amount that the bomb could have sold was 84K because Tony Christie (again) sold 83K in and was at No.20 on MT chart and MT actually reported that the Bomb increased for this week (blue arrow present). Moreover we cannot doubt this due to the 50% increase in sales in the States and elsewhere (eg. UK, Canada, Australia, France - U2's biggest markets in the world). BUT the bomb must have sold over 92K for this week because a) it clearly decreased it's sales for W.20 as it dropped down to No.16 on MT chart BUT stayed above Larry the Cable Guy's 'The Right To Bare Arms' for W.20 who debuted at No.17 on MT chart. Now this definatley sold 92K in the US to debut at No.7 on BB chart - check out the News at Billboard.com. So the bomb must have sold over 92K for each of these 2 weeks on MT chart.

Remember it's highly unlikley that these MINIMUM amount figures are the correct overall figures. For example I doubt U2 would only of sold 84K in W.16 considering they were 8 places above Il Divo (83K sold in UK). But it would be foolish to totally discount them. So the overall minimum amount figures for the bomb are :

6538M + 162K + 140K + 84K + 75K + 66K + 93K + 92K = 7250M - 26K above the Mediatraffic figure of 7224M and there's NO WAY they sold only 40K during W.18 (for example).

The most likely figures are 6538M + 162K + 140K + 100K + 96K* + 90K + *98K (= MT figure of 7224M) + 93K = 7317M overall.

(*changed these figures from previous post to fall in line with MT figure - difference of only 4K)

Fitz - we also know that MT are not imune to making mistakes. For example earlier on they said the Bomb had sold 5994M. But you guys had to correct them - the bomb had actually sold 6004M.

 

[fitz]

edge3 - I agree to you, my estimation was also higher than the real figures. That was the reason, why I asked at mediatraffic. The answer was, that the actual week is included. I can't say anymore to this topic. Of course i can't exclude an error from mediatraffic!
Perhaps, you're UK-figures are not the customer figures (perhaps these are the retail-figures)? By the way, do you have the UK-figures for HTDAAB of the last weeks, and the total?

 

[edge3]

Fitz - How's it goin' there in Munich? These UK figures are definatley official customer sales figures as used by the OCC (Official Chart Company) and Musicweek magazine(Musicweek.com). For example the Il Divo album sold exactly 82964 copies in the UK during W.16 of the bomb on MT chart (this was the week that the bomb sold 18051 - 1008196 overall). As for the current overall sales of the bomb in UK, you must have have missed my ealier post (above - 'One more thing....').

Anyway, once again, here are my estimated sales figures for last 5 weeks of bomb in UK :

11K (no.26), 10K(no.27), 10500 (no.34), 6800 (no.40), 6K (no.46) = est. overall total of 1052496 copies sold in UK so far.

So will the bomb get to 1200000 (4Xplat) in UK? I think it will but it will probably take the rest of this year.

Also great to see the bomb doing pretty well in Germany (still in top 30) - Surley it's sold more than 400K there (?)

 

[fitz]

Munich is always nice.

Yes the bomb doing well in Germany, but at the moment it has only triple gold status (=300K). Double Platinum (=400K) should be possible, at latest when the tour come over us.

Thanks for your UK-figures.

 

[edge3]

In the UK I reckon the bomb will continue to fall for the next 5-6 weeks, maybe to as low as No.70. But then with the Tour coming it will start to rise again and peak inside the top 20 for maybe 2-3 weeks. Also with (probably) 2 more singles to be released the bomb should spend at least 40 weeks in total on the top 75 album chart (even 'Pop' spent 35 weeks on the chart). This should just be enough for the bomb to reach it's target of about 3900 copies per week for the rest of the year to get to 1200000 (4xPlat).

Also did anyone notice if you go to the Belgium Top 50 album site at Charts All Over The World.com they've started showing certifications? The bomb was certified Plat during W.19 (no.11). Now I would guess this would be about 40-50K. But isn't this a bit low? With it's awesome domination of the top 10 (+ 7 weeks at No.1) I would of guessed it would be 3/4/5 or even 6xPlat by now.

 

[fitz]

I think the certification is for the sales to the shops, so the 4xPlatinum should be earlier!

 

[edge3]

Fitz - I agree, but, of course, this doesn't always happen : the've only just updated Green Day's American Idiot to 3xPlat despite it selling over 1005000 to date (in the UK). Same as RHCP's Californafaction which has only just been certified at 3xPlat and I'm certain that's sold over 1M. So, it's about time they made ATYCLB 4xPlat as well (1008300 sold to consumers)!!

 

[edge3]

Fitz - I forgot to post the following on my previous post, above (it should get you thinking) :

I reckon Green Day and RHCP's situation could be a similar situation to the bomb's sales in Germany - the bomb sold 130K there in it's first week according to Mediatraffic to debut at No.1. It then stayed at No.2 for 2 weeks. Surely it would have sold around 90K for these 2 weeks due to the run up to Xmas. Now that's already 310K and it still spent 2 more weeks in the top 10 in the run up to Xmas. So I would say that's another 100K at least - 410 in total from first 5 weeks + 100K from next 14 weeks (all in top 30) = 510K overall. Now I could be getting carried away but :

I'm sure that back in December or January someone posted that the bomb had been certified for 300K in Germany.

Finally interesting to note that the average position of the bomb in Germany is now marginally better than in the UK (14.63 to 14.79). And I know this doesn't mean much due to the UK having the highest per capita album sales of any country in the world (3.2 albums brought per person per year - I think Germany was about 2.1 or 2.2). But I still reckon the bomb has sold over 500K in Germany so far - they (the record company) just haven't bothered to recertify it to 400K (2xPlat).

 

[fitz]

Yes, that's right. The certifications are often much to late. Maybe I'm wrong, but imo ATYCLB has only double platinum in UK, or? I know about the almost 1,1 m sales figures but I've never seen a triple-platinum-certification!

I believe you're figures for Germany are too high. The certification for 300k was in the mid of January. From this date we have sales of almost 100k (my estimation 12 weeks - average per week 8k). So the Bomb have sold about 400k. (ATYCLB has also triple gold, but the gold-level was at this time at 150k = total of 450k).

 

[04072511]

Maybe I'm wrong, but imo ATYCLB has only double platinum in UK, or? I know about the almost 1,1 m sales figures but I've never seen a triple-platinum-certification!

All that you Can't Leave behind was certified 3xPlatinum in the UK on the 29th of June 2001. But for some strange reason it is not included on the BPI gold-platinum search database but it definitely has been certified.

 

[fitz]

All that you Can't Leave behind was certified 3xPlatinum in the UK on the 29th of June 2001. But for some strange reason it is not included on the BPI gold-platinum search database but it definitely has been certified.

Oh, thanks. My source was the searchable database and so I couldn't find it.

 

[edge3]

Fitz - Thanks for your update. I'll agree with you on this and say that 'the bomb' has sold around 400K in Germany (2xPlat) but I'm going to stay with my current overall (estimated) Mediatraffic figure of 7317M untill there are any furthur credible developments. Surley if you agree with the (100% accurate) figures which I posted earlier then you would be wrong to assume that the new 7224M figure includes this week (W.20, 93K) because the figures simply CANNOT add up to 7224M - the MINIMUM possible amount that 'the bomb' could have sold is 7250M and, as I said earlier, this is highly unlikely.

You probably just 'misheard' whatever they told you when you e-mailed Mediatraffic. Or there was a bit of a 'misunderstanding'. Or just plain confusion as there seems to be amongst other interference posters, regarding this matter. Very easy thing to happen especially as last weeks weekly top 40 came out on the same day as the new overall updated chart - very confusing.

Also I thought it would be worth mentioning that it does say at the bottom of the overall chart, at Mediatraffic, that it runs up to April 2005. Now instinct tells me that this includes the week up to April 9th 2005 and NOT this new week of April 16th 2005 (W.20 of 'the bomb'). Why? April 16th is too far into April to be considered 'up to April 2005'. So I am sure that your initial estimated figure of 7350M is close to the current overall figure.

Finally what do reckon the sales figures for 'the bomb' are in France? My guess would be about 400-500K (90K in first week according to Mediatraffic). Also what about Holland? I reckon 200K-300K (someone said it had sold around 110K there by W.3 + 4 weeks at No.1 + 18 weeks in top 10).

 

[edge3]

Fitz - Also, yes, 04072511 was correct in stating that ATYCLB was certified 3x Plat in UK on June 29th 2001 despite, strangely, not appearing on the main BPI searchable batabase site. Another strange thing is that whenever The Joshua Tree has re-enterd the UK top 75 album chart it is always certified at 5xPlat despite the fact it was certifed 6xPlat on Sun March 1st 1992. Anyone know why? Maybe it's because it's been re-released. Anyway I reckon it should be at at least 7xPlat by now - it's spent 41 weeks on the top 75 since 1st March 1992 and I reckon it's total sales are now at about 2.2M in the UK. A year ago it was 10th on the all-time bestselling rock albums. The Beatles' '1' was No.9 and this was 8x Plat with sales of about 2.3M.