Week 12

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Well, it's losing ground in the major markets.. It has a more niche-like appeal than any recent U2 record [by that I mean it's not crossed over and clicked with the more casual music fan lilke the last 2 did] it did all its work in week 1 then dropped, what? 800k with the U2 base globally satiated; -800,000 by wk 2, ouch...

How To Dismantle An Atomic Bomb had an 800,000 drop in its second week as well. Your album does NOT have niche-like appeal when its the best selling album in the world.

For sure, it's sold well given the era we are in musically and regarding the state of the industry, but it won't be 2009's biggest seller... it will likely not gain much from the tour... U2 used to dominate and shape the narrative via ZOOTV, Elevation, Vertigo and such, not anymore... infact this may be the first U2 tour where the masses are paying to be there for a trip through the past not the present, sad but quite possibly the case...

Biggest seller of '09? ah dunno, probably that honour will go to an existing 2008 album with current solid Top 20 sales...


Again, were 22 weeks into 2009, with only 30 weeks to go. The following are the best selling albums of 2009 to date:

Best Selling Albums in 2009

1. U2 No Line On The Horizon 2,819,000
2. Lady Gaga The Fame 2,064,000
3. Beyoncé I Am... Sasha Fierce 1,676,000
4. Kings Of Leon Only By The Night 1,647,000
5. Soundtrack Twilight 1,622,000
6. Taylor Swift Fearless 1,601,000
7. Bruce Springsteen Working On A Dream 1,452,000
8. Pink Funhouse 1,310,000
9. Soundtrack Hannah Montana: The Movie 1,279,000
10. Nickelback Dark Horse 1,193,000

Even if NLOTH did not sell one more copy after week 22, it would still make the top 10 for the year based on the sales of the top 10 from 2008 and the fact that sales are down by over 15% this year.

With the year almost half over, NLOTH has nearly an 800,000 unit lead on the #2 selling album and a 1.2 milion unit lead on the #3 album. In fact, it has a 70% lead on the #3 selling album in 2009. NLOTH is further ahead of the pack than the Joshua Tree was at this point in 1987!


The tour is going to be the highest attended and highest grossing in history. This is not just domination and shaping the narrative, U2 are the narrative.


Biggest seller of '09? ah dunno, probably that honour will go to an existing 2008 album with current solid Top 20 sales...

Well, there are only 30 weeks left for this "sleeper" seller to pass NLOTH. How many more weeks will it be before it passes NLOTH and which album will it be?
 
what would this album sold if the internet wasn't around (more or less) and there wasn't downloading? the same as pop? what did pop sell at this point? if its at 900,000 now it had to have been just over a million. if this was 15 years ago.

Thats incorrect. POP finished at #45 in the USA for the year 1997 in sales. Worldwide it made it just inside the top 20.

NLOTH by contrast is the #1 selling album of the year, this year, and as a good chance to remain so for the rest of the year. Sales, by the end of the year could be as high as 15 million worldwide if it was not possible for individuals to obtain the album for free. This of course depends on where the album finishes this year, but most #1 albums prior to file sharing, internet downloading, CD burning etc, would sell that many copies or more.

In the USA, it sales would be similar to Achtung Baby without all the ways of obtaining an album for free.
 
I wonder whether the 9 million figure for bomb is underestimated. For all we know it may be anything between 9 and 10 million. In any event, you´re right, NLOTH will need to sell "only" 5-5.5 million to match HTDAAB success.

I'd say 4.5 million because the top 100 selling albums are selling less than 50% of what they were five years ago.
 
its not just obtaining it for free. u can also just download parts of the album legally and not buy the whole thing. and in general no body cares about buying albums. its just the mentality now. its all about singles. its like the 1950's again. single driven.
 
its not just obtaining it for free. u can also just download parts of the album legally and not buy the whole thing. and in general no body cares about buying albums. its just the mentality now. its all about singles. its like the 1950's again. single driven.

In the 1950s, adjusted for inflation, you could not buy a single for 99 cents. Back in the 1980s, singles used to be 2 dollars or 3 dollars. It was worth to buy the single instead of the album if that was all you wanted, but if you bought 3 or 4 singles from the album, you would have saved money by just buying the album.

Today, the cost of buying each song seperately or buying the whole album is roughly equal. So to sum up, most people are not buying anything, and those that buy singles are getting the music at a cheaper price than anytime in history.

Although single sales have risen, they have not made up at all for the lost revenue coming from the decrease in album sales. The artist and record company still make more money from the sell of 1 million albums than they do from selling 9 million singles. In the 1980s, selling 9 million singles would have been the equal to selling about 2 or 3 million albums.
 
I doubt it be the highest attended

U2 are planning to play 100 stadium shows in the round. If the average attendance per night is 65,000 , then that is tour attendance total of 6,500,000 for 100 shows. That would make it larger than the largest confirmed attendance which is for Voodoo Lounge at 6.4 million.

Think about the attendance levels were already seeing for the upcoming shows like:

Barcelona 1: 98,000+
Barcelona 2: 98,000+
Milan 1: 80,000+
Milan 2: 80,000+
Paris 1: 80,000+
Paris 2: 80,000+
Nice: 50,000
Zagreb 1: 65,000
Zagreb 2: 65,000
Amsterdam 1: 60,000
Amsterdam 2: 60,000
Berlin: 75,000+
Gelsenkirchen: 60,000+
Stockholm 1: 60,000+
Stockholm 2: 60,000+
Chorzow: 65,000+
Glasgow: 60,000+
Sheffield: 50,000+
Cardiff: 70,000+
London: 90,000+
London: 90,000+
Dublin: 83,000
Dublin: 83,000
Dublin: 83,000

Europe Average: 72,708


Chicago 1: 65,000
Chicago 2: 65,000
Toronto 1: 60,000
Toronto 2: 60,000
Boston 1: 72,000
Boston 2: 72,000
New York City 1: 82,000
New York City 2: 82,000
Washington DC: 92,000
Charlottesville: 50,000 potentially up to 60,000
Raleigh: 45,000 potentially up to 60,000
Atlanta: 72,000
Tampa: 60,000
Dallas: 80,000
Houston: 50,000 potentially up to 70,000
Norman: 50,000 potentially up to 60,000
Phoenix: 50,000
Las Vegas: 42,000
Los Angeles: 90,000
Vancouver: 65,000

North American Average: 65,200

Combined average in 2009: 69,295

In fact, if U2 keep up this average through 2010 for the remaining 66 shows, they will be very close to an attendance of 7 million!
 
Thats pending sell out's though, which in today's current climate is just not going to happen.
 
I just hope people remember that "not sold out show" is NOT equal to "half-empty stadium".
Not selling 1.000-5.000 tickets out of 50.000-80.000 is not the end of the world. Would be in arenas, not stadiums.
 
I don't know the rest of the stadiums, but based on this number I think you lowered the attendance levels of some of the shows.
65.000 in Chorzow is when you have a "normal" stage, add 10.000 more with sectors "behind" the stage.

:up:

I went with that because I did not know what it would be with the new set up. I think they will eventually sellout Chorzow, so thats 75,000.
 
Thats pending sell out's though, which in today's current climate is just not going to happen.

Sellouts in many of the markets have already happened. Plus, the attendance levels I posted are just for the seated area of the stadium. I did not include the field because its not known yet on average how many people will be allowed on the field.


But lets take a look at the confirmed sellouts out of the first 44 shows, keeping in mind that most shows that are not soldout are close to selling out.

Barcelona 1: 98,000+ SOLDOUT
Barcelona 2: 98,000+
Milan 1: 80,000+ SOLDOUT
Milan 2: 80,000+ SOLDOUT
Paris 1: 80,000+ SOLDOUT
Paris 2: 80,000+ SOLDOUT
Nice: 50,000 SOLDOUT
Zagreb 1: 65,000 SOLDOUT
Zagreb 2: 65,000 SOLDOUT
Amsterdam 1: 60,000 SOLDOUT
Amsterdam 2: 60,000 SOLDOUT
Berlin: 75,000+
Gelsenkirchen: 60,000+
Stockholm 1: 60,000+ SOLDOUT
Stockholm 2: 60,000+ SOLDOUT
Chorzow: 75,000+
Glasgow: 60,000+
Sheffield: 50,000+
Cardiff: 70,000+
London: 90,000+ SOLDOUT
London: 90,000+
Dublin: 83,000 SOLDOUT
Dublin: 83,000 SOLDOUT
Dublin: 83,000 SOLDOUT

Europe Average: 72,708


Chicago 1: 65,000 SOLDOUT
Chicago 2: 65,000
Toronto 1: 60,000 SOLDOUT
Toronto 2: 60,000 SOLDOUT
Boston 1: 72,000 SOLDOUT
Boston 2: 72,000
New York City 1: 82,000 SOLDOUT
New York City 2: 82,000 SOLDOUT
Washington DC: 92,000
Charlottesville: 50,000 potentially up to 60,000
Raleigh: 45,000 potentially up to 60,000
Atlanta: 72,000
Tampa: 60,000
Dallas: 80,000
Houston: 50,000 potentially up to 70,000
Norman: 50,000 potentially up to 60,000
Phoenix: 50,000
Las Vegas: 42,000 SOLDOUT
Los Angeles: 90,000 SOLDOUT
Vancouver: 65,000 SOLDOUT

North American Average: 65,200

Combined average in 2009: 69,295




More than half of the shows are already SOLDOUT! The only shows that probably won't sellout completely by show time are charlottesville, Raleigh, Houston, Norman, and Phoenix. I predict though that Charlottesville, Raleigh and Houston have an excellent chance to sell over 90% of their tickets. Norman and Phoenix will both top 50,000 in ticket sales.
 
I doubt it be the highest attended

I guess you´re thinking of Voodoo Lounge tour right? If memory serves that tour sold around 6 million tickets along 1994 and 1995.
I think 360 has a good chance to beat VL for most attended tour in history of modern music but it is going to be a close race. I guess it will all depend on how many gigs U2 play in 2010.
 
Sellouts in many of the markets have already happened. Plus, the attendance levels I posted are just for the seated area of the stadium. I did not include the field because its not known yet on average how many people will be allowed on the field.


But lets take a look at the confirmed sellouts out of the first 44 shows, keeping in mind that most shows that are not soldout are close to selling out.

Barcelona 1: 98,000+ SOLDOUT
Barcelona 2: 98,000+
Milan 1: 80,000+ SOLDOUT
Milan 2: 80,000+ SOLDOUT
Paris 1: 80,000+ SOLDOUT
Paris 2: 80,000+ SOLDOUT
Nice: 50,000 SOLDOUT
Zagreb 1: 65,000 SOLDOUT
Zagreb 2: 65,000 SOLDOUT
Amsterdam 1: 60,000 SOLDOUT
Amsterdam 2: 60,000 SOLDOUT
Berlin: 75,000+
Gelsenkirchen: 60,000+
Stockholm 1: 60,000+ SOLDOUT
Stockholm 2: 60,000+ SOLDOUT
Chorzow: 75,000+
Glasgow: 60,000+
Sheffield: 50,000+
Cardiff: 70,000+
London: 90,000+ SOLDOUT
London: 90,000+
Dublin: 83,000 SOLDOUT
Dublin: 83,000 SOLDOUT
Dublin: 83,000 SOLDOUT

Europe Average: 72,708


Chicago 1: 65,000 SOLDOUT
Chicago 2: 65,000
Toronto 1: 60,000 SOLDOUT
Toronto 2: 60,000 SOLDOUT
Boston 1: 72,000 SOLDOUT
Boston 2: 72,000
New York City 1: 82,000 SOLDOUT
New York City 2: 82,000 SOLDOUT
Washington DC: 92,000
Charlottesville: 50,000 potentially up to 60,000
Raleigh: 45,000 potentially up to 60,000
Atlanta: 72,000
Tampa: 60,000
Dallas: 80,000
Houston: 50,000 potentially up to 70,000
Norman: 50,000 potentially up to 60,000
Phoenix: 50,000
Las Vegas: 42,000 SOLDOUT
Los Angeles: 90,000 SOLDOUT
Vancouver: 65,000 SOLDOUT

North American Average: 65,200

Combined average in 2009: 69,295




More than half of the shows are already SOLDOUT! The only shows that probably won't sellout completely by show time are charlottesville, Raleigh, Houston, Norman, and Phoenix. I predict though that Charlottesville, Raleigh and Houston have an excellent chance to sell over 90% of their tickets. Norman and Phoenix will both top 50,000 in ticket sales.

98,000 in Barcelona? I thought it was closer to 85,000.
 
How To Dismantle An Atomic Bomb had an 800,000 drop in its second week as well. Your album does NOT have niche-like appeal when its the best selling album in the world.




Again, were 22 weeks into 2009, with only 30 weeks to go. The following are the best selling albums of 2009 to date:

Best Selling Albums in 2009

1. U2 No Line On The Horizon 2,819,000
2. Lady Gaga The Fame 2,064,000
3. Beyoncé I Am... Sasha Fierce 1,676,000
4. Kings Of Leon Only By The Night 1,647,000
5. Soundtrack Twilight 1,622,000
6. Taylor Swift Fearless 1,601,000
7. Bruce Springsteen Working On A Dream 1,452,000
8. Pink Funhouse 1,310,000
9. Soundtrack Hannah Montana: The Movie 1,279,000
10. Nickelback Dark Horse 1,193,000

Even if NLOTH did not sell one more copy after week 22, it would still make the top 10 for the year based on the sales of the top 10 from 2008 and the fact that sales are down by over 15% this year.

With the year almost half over, NLOTH has nearly an 800,000 unit lead on the #2 selling album and a 1.2 milion unit lead on the #3 album. In fact, it has a 70% lead on the #3 selling album in 2009. NLOTH is further ahead of the pack than the Joshua Tree was at this point in 1987!


The tour is going to be the highest attended and highest grossing in history. This is not just domination and shaping the narrative, U2 are the narrative.




Well, there are only 30 weeks left for this "sleeper" seller to pass NLOTH. How many more weeks will it be before it passes NLOTH and which album will it be?

Maoil, do you see any specific candidate (besides Eminem) who would eventually outsell U2 in 2009? I´m thinking of the numerous releases that will take place along the third quarter of the year. Despite the sales boost they will experiment by being released at that time of the year, it won´t be easy for those albums to sell over 4 million copies in a three months period.
 
Maoil, do you see any specific candidate (besides Eminem) who would eventually outsell U2 in 2009? I´m thinking of the numerous releases that will take place along the third quarter of the year. Despite the sales boost they will experiment by being released at that time of the year, it won´t be easy for those albums to sell over 4 million copies in a three months period.

Unfortunately, if NLOTH does not level off and more so, start to have weeks where it increases in sales, Lady Gaga will pass them out in a few months. She is consistently selling 100k+ while U2 is consistently selling less and less each week.
 
Nou Camp has just under 99,000 seats, then add onto that the General Admission and you've got yourself a fairly large turnout

Yeah, I´m aware of that but how many tickets were put on sale? Last time I checked they had sold some 160,000 tickets for both shows in Barcelona. It looks like that as many as 5,000-10,0000 tickets are still available for the second night so assuming it is going to be sold out too this will bring the grand total to 170,000 for both Barcelona shows.
 
98,000 in Barcelona? I thought it was closer to 85,000.

Its around 85,000 if the show has a standard end stage set up for a Stadium. U2 360 is using a special set up which allows ALL seats in the entire stadium to be used!

The seating capacity of Camp Nou in Barcelona not including the field is 98,772. This does NOT include general admission on the field. With general admission the field, the total capacity could be as high as 115,000!

Camp Nou in Barcelona is the largest stadium in Europe and the 11th largest stadium in the world!

Camp Nou - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
Maoil, do you see any specific candidate (besides Eminem) who would eventually outsell U2 in 2009? I´m thinking of the numerous releases that will take place along the third quarter of the year. Despite the sales boost they will experiment by being released at that time of the year, it won´t be easy for those albums to sell over 4 million copies in a three months period.

Just doing a google of 2009 releases, I did find five possibilities, like Daughtry, Black Eyed Peas, 50 Cent, and two others I can't remember at the moment. But nothing is for sure and there are only 30 weeks left in the year. None of the artist had the pull of Eminem who was unable to match NLOTH first week of sales worldwide with Relapse.
 
Unfortunately, if NLOTH does not level off and more so, start to have weeks where it increases in sales, Lady Gaga will pass them out in a few months. She is consistently selling 100k+ while U2 is consistently selling less and less each week.


If that process were to continue, that would be true, but I think that Lady Gaga sales will eventually start to taper off.
 
Yeah, I´m aware of that but how many tickets were put on sale? Last time I checked they had sold some 160,000 tickets for both shows in Barcelona. It looks like that as many as 5,000-10,0000 tickets are still available for the second night so assuming it is going to be sold out too this will bring the grand total to 170,000 for both Barcelona shows.

If that were the case, the shows will look 1/4 empty at least. Remember, this is U2 360 and seating is IN THE ROUND. All seats around the stadium are being used, plus what is available on the field. With the normal state set up on Vertigo, the capacity was 82,000 for the show. Opening up the seats on the sides of the stage and the entire rear area in a stadium this large dramatically increases the capacity.
 
Well worldwide The Fame is at 2.3 million and NLOTH is at 2.7

I'd say at the end of the year The Fame 4.5 - 5 million and for U2 around 3.5 - 4 million.
 
Well worldwide The Fame is at 2.3 million and NLOTH is at 2.7

I'd say at the end of the year The Fame 4.5 - 5 million and for U2 around 3.5 - 4 million.

Wait, last time I checked numbers for TF and NLOTH for week 22 were 2,069 and 2,819 million, respectively. So the gap is a bit wider than you mentioned above. Anyway, you´re right, if TF continues doubling (100 K vs 50 K) NLOTH sales week after week it will catch up with NLOTH in a matter of 16 weeks. The question is if this is going to be true in the long run. I think not but I´m putting my money on the tour to consistently increase NLOTH sales along the second semester.
 
Wait, last time I checked numbers for TF and NLOTH for week 22 were 2,069 and 2,819 million, respectively. So the gap is a bit wider than you mentioned above. Anyway, you´re right, if TF continues doubling (100 K vs 50 K) NLOTH sales week after week it will catch up with NLOTH in a matter of 16 weeks. The question is if this is going to be true in the long run. I think not but I´m putting my money on the tour to consistently increase NLOTH sales along the second semester.

The Fame sold 2.069 in 2009, 2.3 total
 
In the UK

With or Without You 43 - 5,194 sales
NLOTH down to 43 from 29 (Sales between 3000 and 3600, total year to date 305,257)
U2:18 down to 61 from 60 (Sales between 2500 and 2800)

U2 18 might go ahead of NLOTH soon
 
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