CosmoKramer
Rock n' Roll Doggie
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2004
- Messages
- 3,325
I haven't updated in a while because there haven't been too many "good" developments worth posting about but Ive been watching YTBTAM and while it looks like it is dying, I don think it is just yet.
Total Spins*: 2,765 (Peak 3,088 on 10/25)
Total AI*: 12.38 million (Peak 12.38 on 11/13)
US Radio Rank: #141 (Peak 141 on 11/13)
*counts only the published Top 50 charts and not the full top 200+ chart
Hot AC: #18 (Peak Position #18)
-1,672 Spins, which is down 64 spins from its pen on 11/6
-8.571 million AI, which is down 0.25 million AI from its peak on 11/8
AC: Not Charting
Alternative: #38 (Peak Position #20)
-348 spins
-1.179 million AI
Active Rock: #48 (Peak Position #41)
-89 spins
-.508 million AI
Triple A: #2 (Peak Position #1)
-656 spins
-2.118 million AI
Commentary:
Is the song dead? No
Is the song dying? No (not just yet at least)
Alternative its dying and fast. It will possibly make a slight rebound with the radio promo that they are doing for the listening sessions but it is for the most part done on this formate.
Active Rock it is just about dead. It made a big jump today to re-enter the Top 50 and I believe that is directly related to the promo that U2 is doing for the album listening sessions. When I look at the stations that drove the jump, its primary 1 station in Baltimore that accounts for the re-entry.
Triple A it is dying but a slow death as this song was a huge hit on this format. Yes its a very small format but its U2's format and YTBTAM dominated and it hit so high in spins and AI that it can only go down from here.
AC or as I call it WTFAC it is not dead as it never had life but perhaps that means it has not yet been born. It is being played on stations and is likely in the Top 60 but I don't know how or why it hasn't crossed over on to this format. It is as if U2's label purposely held it back. If you go to Wikipedia (yes, its not the bible but its what we have) it indicates that it was delivered to Hot AC on 9/27…it does not mention AC.
Hot AC remains the last glimmer of hope for YTBTAM. Its easy to look at the numbers and conclude that its dying:
-Down over 60 spins from its peak
-Down 250k AI from its peak
-11/13 was the first day that it was down week over week in 64 charting days
So why the fuck is Cosmo still annoyingly optimistic? Well, consider these reasons (you may call them excuses but lets enjoy our time with YTBTAM while we have it):
-11/13, its 67th day on the radio charts, it hits a peak position of #141 on US radio
-The official YTBTAM video on YouTube has seen a resurgence since about 11/4. The video was getting anywhere from ~50k to 85k views a day over the past few weeks. It was fairly steady but not gaining any traction at all. Since 11/4, it has been getting anywhere from 110k to 140k views per day (nearly doubled) and this is likely due to the increased marketing on social media as well as the promotional tour exposure which started around that time. While these view counts are still small, this is a significant detail because it means that their marketing its making a difference (even if its a small one). The video currently stands at 4.6 million views and will hit 5 million by the end of the week. Not earth shattering but for a new U2 video and the second one that was released nearly 3 weeks after the first….thats solid.
-11/13, its 64th day on the chart, it hits a peak position of #18
-While there are two songs directly behind it on the charts that will pass it out within a week, there are 2 songs above it that it will likely pass out in a week and 4 songs directly above it are all declining and if YTBTAM can get some footing, it can see a jump on its chart position
-One reason (or excuse depending on your view) for the decline of YTBTAM is likely Taylor Swift. She released her album on 11/10 and Hot AC stations are playing every song on the album to some extent(you see this all the time, Foo Fighters had there whole album getting spins on Alternative and Active Rock when it came out and U2 will be all over Triple A). But just how much play is Taylor getting? 700 spins on the "spin crease" chart from 13 songs….those 700 spins are taking away from other songs and U2 is likely one of the victims (~25 year old super pop star vs ~55 year old rock stars…hmmmmm who to play to get people to listen to our station). The good news is, this "Taylor" effect will wear off in a few days or a week and I hope to see U2 get some momentum on Hot AC again. -U2 promotional extravaganza is coming to the US and it will likely gain them radio attention. We have: LA album listening session, NYC album listening session, AMA awards where U2 is NOT confirmed to perform but they might, the Experience and Innocence Tour goes on sale, rumored SNL performance on 12/2 and there are likely more promo's lined up such as late night talk shows. All of these confirmed/rumored things will likely get U2 a lot of attention and hopefully translate to a bump on radio play for them.
I have said this before but 80% of the Top 20 Hot AC songs are also charting on the AC format and 70% of the Top 20 Hot AC songs are charting on the Pop (Top 40 ) format. The higher you go on the Hot AC chart, the % of songs charting rises on both AC and Pop, so the if YTBTAM can take off on Hot AC, it still has a chance to break out. I will admit that window is narrow but its a window nevertheless.
If I were to grade the performance thus far:
Hot 100: F (didn't come close to charting)
Hot AC: B- (top 20 is solid)
AC: D- (charted in the top 50 for 1 day)
Active Rock: D (hit #41 and was on the chart for a few weeks)
Triple A: A+ (hit #1 for 11 days and top 2 for 20 days)
US Radio Play Performance: C (in the top 150 isn't great, isn't good, its…okay/decent)
