Ill try to balance optimism and realism and avoid "fanboyism", so here goes:
The song is going to drop from the Active Rock charts very soon. That means, TBT it is going to see a "sudden" drop in total spins and impressions because what I calculate as well as Kworb is only the top 50…..its amazing that this song was played on this format to begin with and that hit went as high at #41. Its not a rock song, its pure pop and joy and has no business on that format
The song is starting to weaken on Alternative but will likely stick in the top 50 for a few more weeks. It may even have a slight resurgence like The Miracle did but it hit #20 on this chart on a few occasions and thats solid. Basically, expect to see TBT start to weaken, especially without any additional push (promo performances, etc..).
Triple A: The song has fallen a couple of spots to #5 vs #3 but its actually peaking in spins. I do expect this song to hit #1 on this format but its lifespan on Triple A is only a few more weeks tops before it will likely either begin to decline or have been declining.
The above 3 formats have been great to TBT but its going to begin sunsetting on all of them soon as its not as bright when its vanishing (see what I did there). But that leads me to the most important format and my optimism is going to shine more than my realism here but perhaps not but much:
On Hot AC it is performing very well and this week it STILL has 5 new station adds! It is still one of the biggest gainers week over week and is going strong. Your comparison to Song for Someone is on the surface, right but dig a little deeper and you will see just how impressive TBT is compared to SFS and that the tank might actually still be full. See, Song for Someone was in the mid-twentys on the Hot AC chart for quite a while (just like TBT) and it peaked at ~#22 on this chart (just like TBT is now) BUT consider this…..Song for Someone entered the Hot AC chart at #49 (just like TBT did) on 7/13/15 and it hit its peak spins/impressions/chart position on 10/27/15 (you see where I am going here
). SFS peaked
106 days after first entering the chart, while TBT has hit #22 in only 30 days and has been on the chart of a total of 37 days. On day 37, SFS was sitting at #31 on Hot AC with a mere 575 spins up only 6 spins from the previous day and only 4 spins from two days prior (i.e. it was stalled a little). Im not saying that TBT is going to follow the same trajectory as SFS but I think it is fair to say that TBT is in a significantly better position in its 37th day on the chart that SFS and if it just has 3 quarters of the staying power SFS had, that would mean it could have ~43 more days of chart life before it peaks. In other words, this song is kicking ass right now compared to SFS and its got potentially 2-3 more months to go on this chart IF we use SFS as a comparison.
Then there is the AC chart that has been such a conundrum to us. TBT is built for AC, Hot AC and Top 40 Pop. If its on Hot AC, it only makes sense that it would be on AC, so where the hell is it? It will never show up then, right? Well, consider these facts: Of the Top 20 songs on Hot AC right now, all but 3 are also on the AC chart. That means 85% of the songs in the top 20 of Hot AC are charting on AC. 100% of the Top 14 are charting on AC (only #15, 19 and 20 are not). Now TBT has been out for nearly 40 days but here is something else interesting… Cheat Codes "No Promises" is peaking on Hot AC right now at #17 but is only at 47 on the AC chart. I know, its on both charts but here is whats interesting and might mirror (I hope) TBT: Cheat Codes "No Promises" first entered the Hot AC chart on 08/07/17 and is currently peaking at #17. Well, it first hit the AC chart on 10/08/07 (2 months later) at #50. Its as if either the AC stations waited for this song to hit a certain point on Hot AC before playing it or the plan was to wait 2 months and then hit that format to max out impressions (Hot AC songs seem to stay on the chart longer than AC, so theoretically you could time the song release so that it is peaking on both formats). Now, that is only a guess on my part but wouldn't it be interesting if by ~11/6 (2 months after the song is out) we see TBT start to show up on AC?
Bottom line: Hot AC is going strong and could potentially continue to grow immensely if it trends like SFS and there is absolutely hope for TBT hitting the AC format.
These two formats,
if this song can penetrate the top 15 of each , could account for 20 million+ total impressions. So what does that mean? Well, that is a massive number of impressions and would likely be enough to see movement(not sure how much) on Youtube streams of the video, iTunes Sales and potentially getting it into the Hot 100….(I think I actually hear Ax, Headache and a few others laughing at what I just wrote).
).
saying that I couldn't even tell you a uk number since probably Coldplay paradise back in 2011.
